杨万东

YangWanDong

　　中国人民大学出版社出版的美国金融家黄树东的著作《大国兴衰——全球化背景下的路线之争》引起了社会各界广泛关注。作者基于自己多年在国际金融行业的丰富阅历，对世界金融体系和世界经济体系从一个资深业内人士的视角做了独到的揭秘和深入的剖析。

Chinese people's university press of American financier HuangShuDong works《Country-under the background of globalization and the battle of the route》Cause the attention all circles of the society。The author based on his years in the international financial industry the rich experience，To the world financial system and the world economy from a senior industry view the original revelation and in-depth analysis。

　　读过该书的很多人都说，这本书颠覆了传统的世界贸易观点和传统的发展战略。该书从国家利益的角度，从霸权统治的角度针对国际经济体系，提出了许多新的观点和概念，如“体制寻租”、“三位一体的专政”、“寻租铁三角”、“对多数的统治”、美国政府“预算软约束”、“美元体制寻租”等等。作者认为，目前的世界经济体系是“新殖民主义”，特别是作者从美元的角度，剖析美国的霸权战略，提出美国通过财政预算“软约束”，通过“美元体制寻租”而解决了人类历史上所有霸权面临的有限资源的矛盾，得以用全世界的资源和财富托起美国超历史的霸权。该书作者还认为，目前的国际经济体系格局，是一个霸权寻租的体系。作者提出的这些观点和概念比较新颖。

Read the book of a lot of people are saying，This book has transformed the way of the world trade point and the traditional development strategy。The book from the point of view of the interests of the state，From the point of view of the rule for hegemony of the international economic system，Puts forward many new ideas and concepts，if“System rent-seeking”、“The dictatorship of the trinity”、“Rent-seeking triangle”、“For most of the rule”、The U.S. government“Soft budget constraint”、“Dollars system rent-seeking”, etc。The authors think that the，The present world economic system is“New colonialism”，From the point of view of the author especially $，Analyze the hegemony of U.S. strategy，Put forward the United States through the financial budget“Soft restriction”，Through the“Dollars system rent-seeking”And solve the human history facing the limited resources of all hegemony of contradictions，With the world to resources and wealth of the United States hold ChaoLiShi hegemony。In this book, the author think，The current international economic system structure，Is a hegemony rent-seeking system。The author puts forward the concept of these views and that is new。

　　我同作者一样，认为传统的国际贸易理论和战略，单纯从市场原则出发，忽视了国家利益。国家利益的现实颠覆了市场原则的假说。该书不否定国际市场原则，但是颠覆了目前的“国际市场”。它认为，目前的国际经济体系不是，也不可能是建立在“市场原则”之上。在此基础上，它提出一个国家的贸易战略必须建立在国家总体战略之下，符合国家的总体战略利益。在颠覆传统国际经济体系的基础上，该书从美国立国以来200多年国家博弈的宏大历史画卷中，提炼出中国崛起的历史主题：中国必须要走独立自主的发展道路。

I like with the author，Think of the traditional international trade theory and strategy，Only from the principle of market，Ignore the interests of the state。The interests of the state subversion of the reality of the principle of market hypothesis。The book doesn't deny the international market principles，But the subversion of the current“The international market”。It said，The current international economic system is not，Also can't be built on“Market principles”above。Based on this，It puts forward a country's trade strategy must be based on the state's overall strategy under，Comply with the state's overall strategic interests。In subverts the traditional international economic system basis，The book from the United States for more than 200 years since the founding of the national game grand historical picture scroll，To point out the history of China's rise theme：China must go independent development road。

　　该书的另一个特点提倡自主发展，提出去全球化。目前，世界各国处于后危机时代，世界经济体系并不稳定，针对中国的贸易保护主义愈加抬头，这种时候该书自然更容易受到大家的关注。作者用历史事实指出，虽然一些小型经济体依靠贸易立国取得了一定的成功，但一些国家贸易立国的失败教训更值得汲取。对中国这样一个世界人口第一大国和经济规模已是世界第三的经济大国，指望外部市场更充分的扩大很不现实。过度金融化的欧美国家要向实体经济纠偏，以解决国内的产业空心化和失业率居高不下的问题；发展中的新兴工业国家由于国内市场空间太小又被欧美国家外挤，则会与中国抢占产品品种和技术级次相当的中低端产品市场，市场竞争将会十分严酷。

The book another characteristic of advocate independent development，Puts forward to globalization。At present，All countries in the world after age in crisis，The world economy is not stable，According to China's trade protectionism increasingly looked up，This time the book nature more vulnerable to everyone's attention。The author points out that with historical facts，Although some small economies depend on trade nations has obtained certain of success，But some countries trade the failure lesson of "more worth absorb。To the China as a world population and economic scale 1 power has is the world's economic superpower，Expect more fully external market expansion is not reality。Excessive JinRongHua in European countries and America to rectify real economy，In order to solve the domestic industry KongXinHua and high unemployment；In the development of the country because the new industrial domestic market space is too small and the European and American countries outside crowded，Will and China products and technology race is ZhongDiDuan product market grades，Competition in the market will be quite severe。

　　该书不仅指出了美国为了自身的经济复苏会采取贸易保护手法，而且详细剖析了美国危机发生的根源和反危机的心路历程、思路、手段和目的。作者亲历了2008年金融危机，作为美国金融企业高管人员对美国经济金融政策走向有第一时间的观察和深入的思考，对于中国人了解目前和未来的贸易战争、美元政策走向、对华经济战略提供了较为详细的路线图。

It not only points out the United States in order to their own economic recovery will take trade protection technique，And detailed analyses the root of the crisis and the crisis journey、ideas、Means and purpose。The author by the 2008 financial crisis，As the U.S. financial enterprise executives on the U.S. economy and financial policies to have the first time observation and deep thinking，For the Chinese people to know more about the current and future trade war、Dollar policy to、China provides a more detailed economic strategy of the roadmap。

　　该书作者关注的是中国如何发展，中华民族、中国企业、中国个人投资者如何捍卫真实财富。作者旗帜鲜明地提出中国要走独立自主的道路，要走自我保护、内向发展的道路，要去出口导向。中国不能通过固守落后来发挥优势。

The author of this book is how China development of attention，The Chinese nation、China enterprise、China's individual investors how to defend the true wealth。The author puts forward extracurricular Chinese to go the way of the independent，To go self protection、Introverted way of development，Going to export oriented。China can't through the adherence to play behind advantage。

　　然而，去出口导向，中国大量的出口产业怎么办？许多读者都会提出这个问题。其实，这是鸡生蛋，蛋生鸡的问题。

however，To export oriented，The large number of Chinese export industry？Many readers will put forward this problem。In fact，This is egg，The problem of chicken eggs。

　　有人会说，如果转向内向型发展，中国几乎相当于GDP40％的出口将失去市场，中国将出现严重的生产过剩。其实所谓生产过剩，是相对于需求而言，需求决定于分配。中国有近14亿人口，具有极为广阔的国内市场。胡润中国财富榜中国富豪资产排名前1000位的平均资产就达38.8亿元人民币。这一千位富豪及其财产共有人，其人数不到中国总人口的百万分之一，拥有的财富总量接近4万亿元人民币，占中国社会储蓄总量58万亿元的比例则达到7％以上，而且还有众多富豪因为复杂的股权结构未能统计进去，极度不均的财富占有状况是中国国内内需不足的根本原因。只要中国真正解决了贫富悬殊问题，中国不断增长的甚至勃发的内需才能成为中国经济发展的强劲动力。不断增长的就业，不断增长的工资，不断完善的社会保障体制，这些保证社会公平的措施将会为中国创造出巨大的需求。不断增长的需求对经济的拉动将会给中国经济发展产生持久的动力，为企业带来高额的利润。适度公平带来企业高利润，这样，公平和效率就可以达到一致。

Some people will say that，Turning to introverted development，China is almost equal to GDP40 % export will be lose the market，China will appear serious overproduction。In fact the so-called overproduction，Relative to demand is concerned，Demand decided in distribution。China has a population of nearly 1.4 billion，Has the prospects of the domestic market。Hu run China rich list of China's richest business people assets of the top 1000 reached 3.88 billion yuan on average assets。The one thousand richest and its property there，The number of China's population of less than one over one million，Have total value of the wealth of close to 4 trillion yuan RMB，Of China's total social deposit 58 trillion yuan ratio is above 7%，And there are many rich because of complex ownership structure failed to statistics in，Extremely uneven wealth possession in domestic Chinese domestic demand is the lack of basic reasons。And as long as China really solve the polarization，China's rising even domestic demand can become the world economic development of China strong power。Rising employment，Rising wages，Perfecting the social security system，These guarantee social equity measures will be for China to create huge demand。Growing demand in the economy will pull the economic development of China produces durable power，For enterprise to bring the higher profits。Moderate fair bring enterprise highly profitable，this，Fairness and efficiency can reach agreement。

　　这里需要澄清一个误解，那就是以为作者主张回到封闭，反对开放。如果仔细阅读全书可以明白，作者对我国改革开放取得的巨大成就是充分肯定的。作者所反对的，是为开放而开放，是为了开放而失去经济的自主权，为了开放和外贸而牺牲国民的真实财富和福利，为了所谓的产品销售市场而付出巨大的资源、环境、人力的代价。作者主张，开放和外贸的战略必须置于国家和民族长期发展的总战略之下，不能为了几个地区、几个行业的发展，而使国家的整体经济和民众福利处于他人的控制状态。

Here need to clarify a misunderstanding，It is thought that the author holds that the return to closed，Against open。If read encyclopedia can understand，The author to China's reform, opening up and the great achievements obtained is fully for sure。The author opposed，For open and open，Is to open and lose economic autonomy，In order to open and foreign trade and sacrifice of the true wealth and national welfare，For the sake of so-called product sales market and pay a heavy resources、environment、Human price。The author holds that the，Open and foreign trade strategy must be in country and nation under the general strategy for long-term development，Not to several areas、Several industry development，And make the country's overall economic and public welfare in other people's control state。

　　有不少企业界朋友读了此书后感慨良多。中国企业要走向世界，首先要了解世界。该书对世界经济金融体系的深刻认知，对美国金融体系和金融战略的透彻仔细的分析和预测，对美国金融困境的解析，为中国企业和投资者提供了走向世界、走进美国的坐标和参照。商场就是战场，该书有如战场地图，不得不看。

There are many business friends read the book in the feeling after a lot。Chinese enterprises to go to the world，First of all to learn about the world。The book on the world economic and financial system of deep understanding，In U.S. financial system and financial strategy of thorough careful analysis and forecast，In U.S. financial predicament of analytical，For Chinese enterprises and investors with go to the world、Into the United States and reference to coordinate。Mall is a battlefield，The book is like the map，Must see。

　　举一个简单的例子。该书认为，金融资本必然走向繁荣——破裂的循环，这就给投资者敲响了警钟，千万不能陷入金融虚假繁荣的泡沫。该书还提及，美国为了维持自己的技术垄断，千方百计地阻止中国的自主创新。中国企业要创新，必须独立自主，自力更生，必须要有政府保护和支持。中国企业在自主技术创新上一定要立足于自己。作者认为，保护主义和美元贬值是美国为了防止经济长期停滞而不得不选择的政策。作者对日本经济衰退的分析，对日本企业在日元升值和金融自由化过程中面临的巨大压力的解读，对中国企业无疑能起到警醒作用。作者在美国长期从事金融投资，多年来去过很多国家，见识过多种多样的经济类型，对世界经济具有深入的了解和深刻感受。作为世界顶级金融机构的高级管理人员，许多看法非常独到准确。

For a simple example。The book that，Financial capital inevitable to boom--the breakdown of the cycle，This was a wake-up call for investors，Can't get into financial false prosperity of bubbles。The book also mentioned，The United States in order to maintain their own technology monopoly，Leave no stone unturned to stop Chinese independent innovation。Chinese enterprise to innovation，Must be independent，self-reliance，Must have the government protection and support。China enterprise in the independent technological innovation must be based on yourself。The authors think that the，Protectionism and the dollar is the United States in order to prevent long-term economic stagnation and had to choose a policy。The author analysis of Japan's slump，In the Japanese yen appreciation of the Japanese enterprise and financial liberalization facing huge pressure reading，To the Chinese enterprise can play the role undoubtedly keep watch。The author in the United States has long engaged in financial investment，And many countries for many years，Seen a variety of economic types，For the world economy has deep understanding and deep feelings。As the world's top financial institutions of senior management personnel，Many views very original accurate。