克鲁格曼的这本书，为终结全球金融危机提出了凯恩斯主义色彩的政策建议，为我们把握全球经济走势，并相应采取对策提供了一个参照，同时也为中国应对危机中的政策选择提供了一个参照。

Krugman's this book，To end the global financial crisis Keynes put forward policy Suggestions of color，For us to grasp the global economic situation，And the corresponding countermeasure provides a reference，But also for China to deal with the crisis policy choice provides a reference。

　　从全球经济史，以及经济思想史的发展脉络看，经济金融危机往往会引发对现有经济金融理论与政策体系的激烈争论，其中既可能会有对传统经济金融理论的激烈批评，也可能是原有理论体系对批评的回应和改进，还可能是尝试提出新的分析框架。由美国2007年的次贷危机所引发的全球金融危机对世界经济产生了广泛而深刻的影响，对经济金融理论体系的影响也同样显著。《End This Depression Now!（马上结束这场萧条）》一书可以视为是此次危机中关于凯恩斯主义争论的代表性著作之一，作者则是凯恩斯主义的代表人物克鲁格曼。

From the global economic，The development of the history and the economic context look，Economic and financial crisis will often lead to the existing economic and financial theory and the policy system of controversy，Among them is as likely will have to the traditional economic and financial theory of fierce criticism，Also may be the original theory system and improve the response to criticism，Also may be trying to put forward the new analysis framework。The United States in 2007 by the subprime crisis caused by the global financial crisis on the world economy has had a broad and profound influence，The financial and economic theory to the influence of the system is also significant。《End This Depression Now!（Immediately end the depression）》A book can be regarded as the crisis of Keynesian representative works of debate，The author is the representative figure of Keynesian krugman。

　　在经济学界，克鲁格曼是一个富有争议的著名学者，他在国际贸易、国际金融、货币危机与汇率变化理论等研究中颇有建树， 2008年10月13日，瑞典皇家科学院诺贝尔奖委员会由于他在“贸易模式上所做的分析工作和对经济活动的定位”的突出研究而将当年的诺奖颁发给他，同时他也撰写了大量财经专栏文章。早在1991年，年仅38年的克鲁格曼就获得了被视为诺贝尔奖重要指针的美国经济学会克拉克奖。他也曾经直接参与了一系列的经济政策研究，而不仅仅是一位书斋中的学者，1983年美国的总统经济报告就是由克鲁格曼主笔的。更让克鲁格曼获得巨大声望的，是他1996年出版的《流行国际主义》大胆预言了亚洲金融危机，该书在短短两年内重印了8次，总印数达120万，他在书中提出所谓的“亚洲奇迹”无非是建立“在浮沙之上，迟早幻灭”，很难说是什么奇迹。

In economics，Krugman is a controversial famous scholars，He in international trade、The international financial、Currency crisis and the exchange rate changes theory study a career， October 13, 2008，The royal Swedish academy of sciences on the Nobel committee“Trade on the analysis of the model and work on the orientation of economic activity”The outstanding research and the year Nobel awarded to him，He also wrote a column of finance and economics。As early as in 1991，Only 38 years of krugman have be regarded as the Nobel Prize of the American economic association important pointer clark award。He also once directly involved in a series of economic policy research，And not just a den of scholars，In 1983, the economic report is the President of the United States by krugman was。More let a huge popularity of krugman，Is he published in 1996《Popular international socialist》Bold predictions of the financial crisis，The book in just two years come to 8 times，The total amount of 1.2 million，In his book, put forward the so-called“The Asian miracle”It is built“In FuSha above，Disillusionment sooner or later”，It's hard to say what miracles。

　　这一次全球金融危机，克鲁格曼依然十分活跃，并就金融危机的应对进行了一系列的理论研究，并提出了不少政策建议，其中有不少就体现在这本书中。

This time the global financial crisis，Krugman is still very active，And the answer of the financial crisis in a series of theories，And puts forward some policy Suggestions，There are many is reflected in this book。

　　颇具争议的凯恩斯主义代表人 Controversial Keynesian representative

　　作为新凯恩斯经济学的代表，克鲁格曼强烈支持凯恩斯主义的经济主张。克鲁格曼认为，市场并不完善，因此政府干预是必要的。金融危机和大衰退造成了产出缺口，即经济的潜力和实际产出之间的差额，正是需求的巨大短缺使然。他认为，当消费和企业开支难以前进，就只剩下了一种填补缺口的办法：政府必须采取行动，进行刺激性开支，美联储必须推行指向通货膨胀的货币政策，来为经济提供第一推动力。

As a representative of the new Keynes economics，Krugman strongly support Keynesian economic claims。Krugman think，Market is not perfect，So the government intervention is necessary。The financial crisis and a recession caused the output gap，That is the potential of the economy and the difference between the actual output，It is the demand of the shortage of great design。He thinks，When consumer and enterprise spending hard to move on，Will only be a gap to fill：The government must take action，For stimulating spending，The fed must push inflation to the monetary policy，To give the economy a first driving force。

　　克鲁格曼在经济学的许多领域，特别是国际经济学领域进行了大量富有影响的研究。在国际贸易方面，他建立了新贸易理论，认为国家之间的贸易，尤其是经济特征相似国家同类产品的贸易，代表了这些国家根据规模收益递增原理而发展专业化的结果，与国家生产要素禀赋差异关系不大；在经济活动区位方面，他开创了新经济(310358,基金吧)地理学，提出了他的核心-外围模型，把厂商和消费者的区位选择内生于模型中，较好地解释了一个两区域经济如何形成工业核心和农业边缘区模式；在国际金融方面，他建立了一个汇率目标区理论的规范模型，使汇率目标区超出原来仅作为汇制改革方案而存在的范畴，形成一个有特色的理论框架；在宏观经济方面，他提出了第一代货币危机理论，较好地解释了上世纪80年代之前绝大多数发展中国家的货币危机，对1998年俄罗斯货币危机也有一定的解释力。2008年，克鲁格曼因创立新贸易理论和开创新经济地理学研究领域而获得诺贝尔经济学奖。

In many areas of economics krugman，Especially the international economics field of research on the effects of the rich。In international trade，He established the new trade theory，Think of the trade between countries，Especially the economic features of similar countries of similar products trade，Represents the state, according to the principle of increasing return to scale and development of professional results，And the national production factor endowments differences concern is not big；In the economic activities in the location，He created the new economy(310358,Fund it)geography，Put forward his core-periphery model，The manufacturers and consumers' location choice inside was born in model，Better explain a two regional economic how to form the core industrial and agricultural edge model；In the international financial aspects，He established a standard model of exchange rate target zone theory，Make exchange rate target zone beyond the original only as the plan to fluctuate per day either way of the existence of category，Form a distinctive theoretical framework；In the macro economic aspects，He put forward the first generation of currency crisis theory，A well explain the before the 1980 s most of the developing countries in the currency crisis，For the 1998 Russian monetary crisis also has to some extent。2008 years，Krugman was founded by the new trade theory and create a new economic geography research field and won the Nobel Prize in economics。

　　经济学界的争议永远是存在的。一些学者对克鲁格曼的理论和观点一直就有质疑。如，克鲁格曼认为当前的美国失业并非结构性的；而国际货币基金组织等的研究报告则认为，美国的长期失业人口中有40%属于结构性失业。克鲁格曼认为是经济增长的迟缓导致了债务水平的增加，而不是相反；而雷恩哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）的研究显示，当一个国家的债务相对于国民生产总值的比例过高（达到或者超过90%左右），经济增长速度就会减缓。尽管在一些观点上有不同的质疑，但克鲁格曼对于经济学理论的发展，尤其是在新贸易理论和新经济地理学等方面所做的许多有价值的贡献，却是有目共睹的。克鲁格曼在财经媒体领域也十分活跃，在一些财经媒体经常撰写专栏来呼吁自己的政策建议，并有不少广受关注的著作出版，本书就是克鲁格曼对应对当前危机的一系列带有十分鲜明凯恩斯主义色彩的建议和看法。

The dispute is always the economic circle of existence。Some scholars to krugman theories and views have been have questioned。if，Krugman think the current us unemployment is not structural；And the international monetary fund in the study of the report is considered，America's long-term unemployed population 40% belong to structural unemployment。Krugman think is slow economic growth led to increased debt levels，And not the other way around；And Ryan hart（Carmen Reinhart）And Jacques rogge husband（Kenneth Rogoff）Research shows that，When a country debt relative to GDP of the compilation of high proportion（At or more than 90% or so），Economic growth will slow。Although in some point on a different question，But krugman for the development of the theory of economics，Especially in the new trade theory and new economic geography of many valuable contribution，It is obvious to all。Krugman financial media sector in is very active，In some financial media often writes a column to calls for his policy Suggestions，And there are many controversial publications，This book is to deal with the current crisis krugman a series of very bright with Keynes colour Suggestions and views。

　　寻找金融危机中的免费午餐 Looking for a free lunch in the financial crisis

　　在经济学中有一句名言：“世界上没有免费的午餐”，不过，在克鲁格曼看来，在大衰退和金融危机冲击下“只要我们伸出手来，就有免费午餐，因为这时候大量的闲置资源就有用武之地了。” 这是典型的克鲁格曼的政策基调。

There is a famous in economics：“The world is no free lunch”，but，In krugman seems，In a recession and the impact of the financial crisis“As long as we hold out your hand，Will have a free lunch，Because by this time a lot of idle resources will be useful。” This is typical of the krueman's policy fundamental key。

　　发端于美国的次贷危机席卷全球，各国积极应对。

Originated in the U.S. credit crisis sweeping the globe，Countries to actively respond to。

　　总体来说，世界主要发达经济体程度不同地在凯恩斯主义旗帜的影响下，推出了一系列政策举措，也产生了一定的效果。不过，对于这些凯恩斯主义色彩鲜明的危机应对措施，各种批评也一直不断，本书就可以视为是克鲁格曼对这些批评的一些回应。

overall，The world's major developed economies in different degree of Keynesian under the influence of the flag，Launched a series of policies and measures，Also produced a certain effect。but，For these Keynesian colorful crisis response measures，All sorts of criticism has also been continuously，This book can be regarded as some of the criticism of krugman response。

　　例如，有批评认为，扩张性的财政政策对促进欧美等发达经济体的复苏难以起到明显效果，因为主要发达经济体基础设施较为完善，在这方面进一步加大公共投资的机会相对较少；主要发达经济体失业率持续处于高位，居民对未来的收入预期日益悲观，减税对消费的刺激作用有限。刺激计划还会产生“挤出”效应，即政府开支可能导致资源从私营企业流出，而且扩张性财政政策将导致各国财政赤字继续增加，从而加大债务危机的压力。

For example，There are criticisms that，Expansionary fiscal policy to promote Europe and the United States and other advanced economies to the recovery has an obvious effect，Because the major developed economies relatively perfect infrastructure，In this respect further increasing public investment opportunities are relatively few；Major developed economies for a high unemployment rate，Residents of future income expected increasingly pessimistic，Tax cuts to spending the stimulating effect of the limited。Stimulus plan will be generated“extrusion”effect，That government spending can lead to resources from private enterprise outflow，And expansionary fiscal policy will lead to financial deficit countries continue to increase，Then increase the pressure of the debt crisis。

　　同样广受关注的是，有批评者认为，扩张性的货币政策可能导致通货膨胀抬头。从短期来看，数量宽松政策没有带来通货膨胀的压力，尽管基础货币大量增加，但货币乘数在下降，所以广义货币并没有明显增加。但长期来看，许多研究者担心应对危机中显著超发的货币必然带来通货膨胀压力。

The same wide concern is，Critics think，Expansionary monetary policy could lead to inflation looked up。In the short term，Quantity loose policy didn't bring the inflation pressure，Although a large increase in the base currency，But the money multiplier in decline，So broad money and no increased significantly。But in the long term，Some researchers worry about coping with crisis in the hair of currency significantly will bring inflation pressure。

　　另外，也有研究者批评发达国家陆续推出的各种产业发展政策的效果仍然存在不确定性。如，新能源的发展受到传统能源价格波动的影响，一旦石油价格下跌，对新能源的投资将是明显的打击。而环境保护等新兴行业的发展，均依赖技术标准、消费者偏好、法律体系、国际合作等方面出现实质性的变革，短期内商业前景并不乐观。

In addition，The researchers also have criticized the developed countries of releasing all kinds of industry development policy effect is still uncertain。if，The development of new energy by the influence of the traditional energy price fluctuations，Once the oil prices fell，For new energy investment will be obvious blow。And environmental protection and other emerging industry development，All depend on technical standards、Consumer preferences、Legal system、International cooperation appeared substantial changes，The short term commercial prospects。

　　中国应对危机的政策选择 China should crisis of policy choice

　　在外部金融危机的冲击和内部经济增长回落等压力下，当前中国进入了经济转型的关键时期。外部欧债危机等外部因素增加了世界经济的不确定性，发达经济体的增长中枢或已阶段性下移；内部随着劳动力成本上升，中国人口红利逐渐减退。因此，在应对金融危机冲击的过程中，推出一定规模的刺激内需政策来应对经济周期性回落是有必要的，但是更为关键的还是促进经济转型，促使中国未来的经济增长动力将转向内生性、制度性红利的释放和经济系统的结构性转变。大致来说，至少包括如下几个方面的内容：

The impact of the financial crisis in the external and internal economic growth fell under the pressure，China's current into the economic transformation of the key time。Outside the debt crisis external factors such as the increase of the uncertainty of the world economy，The developed economies of central or already phased growth folding；Internal with higher labor costs，China's population bonus gradually decreases。so，In dealing with the impact of the financial crisis in the process，Launch the certain scale boost domestic demand to respond to economic policy back periodically is necessary，But more key or promote economic transformation，Prompted China's future economic growth momentum to endogenous、The release of the institutional bonus of the economic system and structural change。Roughly speaking，Include at least the following several aspects of content：

　　一是要素价格形成机制改革。中国在市场化进程中始终面临资本、土地、能源、矿产资源等要素价格长期管制的瓶颈，由此造成了公用设施、环保和安全的高成本，并导致投资冲动、资源错配、结构失衡、增长质量欠佳等现象，一定程度上加大了居民收入差距，劳动密集的服务业发展受到制约。推动要素价格改革，即从管制下扭曲、低估的价格转变为市场均衡价格，将使投资和生产的成本、回报更真实，国民财富的分配更合理，市场机制的合理运用进一步激励推动中国经济增长模式的转型。

One is the elements price forming mechanism reform。In the process of China's market always face capital、land、energy、Mineral resources elements such as the bottleneck of chronic price controls，This caused the public facilities、Environmental protection and safety of the high cost，And lead to investment impulse、Resources mismatch、Unbalanced structure、Quality of growth phenomenon such as poor，To some extent increase the income gap of residents，Labor intensive development of the service industry are conditioned。Promote elements price reform，That is, from control the distortion、The price for market changes to underestimate the equilibrium price，Will make investment and production costs、More real return，National the distribution of wealth is more reasonable，Market mechanism of reasonable use of further incentive to promote China's economic growth mode transformation。

　　二是体制改革释放的红利。首先，收入分配改革。改革的方向通过减税、完善社保等举措增加居民特别是中低收入者收入，加大对社保、医疗、就业等民生领域的投入，多渠道增加农民收入，扩大内需，增加消费。其次，投融资体制改革。改革的方向是对民间资本开放垄断行业，打破垄断，促进社会要素在不同行业的市场化流动。再者，推进结构性减税，逐步降低财政收入在GDP中占比，引导经济结构的优化，释放居民和企业消费的意愿和提高居民和企业的消费能力。

2 it is system reform of release of the dividend。first，Income distribution reform。The direction of the reform on tax cuts、Perfect social security measures such as raising people especially low income income，To increase social security、medical、Employment and people's field of investment，And increasing the farmers' income，Expanding domestic demand，Increase consumption。second，Investment and financing system reform。The direction of the reform on private capital is open monopoly industries，Break the monopoly，Promote the social factors in different industries of the marketing of the flow。moreover，Promote structural tax cuts，Gradually reduce financial income in GDP than up，Lead optimization of the economic structure，Release the will of the people and enterprise consumption and improve residents and enterprise spending power。

　　三是劳动生产率红利。当前中国经济增长仍然是靠大量的要素投入，尤其是资本形成所推动。因此，提高劳动生产率，通过技术进步和人力资源的改善实现内生的增长必然会逐步成为中国经济未来发展的主题，同时要重点鼓励资源配置效率更高的市场化企业的成长，通过放松管制来促使要素的市场化流动来提高劳动生产率。

3 it is the labor productivity bonus。China's current economic growth is still on a large amount of inputs，Especially push capital formation。so，Improve labor productivity，Through the technical progress and human resources to improve the endogenous growth will realize gradually become China's economic future development theme，And at the same time a key to encourage the resources allocation efficiency of the marketing of the growth of the higher enterprise，Through the deregulation to promote the elements of the market moves to improve labor productivity。

　　克鲁格曼的这本书，为终结全球金融危机提出了凯恩斯主义色彩的政策建议，为我们把握全球经济走势，并相应采取对策提供了一个参照，同时也为中国应对危机中的政策选择提供了一个参照，我认为是很有理论和应用价值的。

Krugman's this book，To end the global financial crisis Keynes put forward policy Suggestions of color，For us to grasp the global economic situation，And the corresponding countermeasure provides a reference，But also for China to deal with the crisis policy choice provides a reference，I think that is a theory and the application value。

　　（本文系作者为《End This Depression Now！》一书所作的序言。原文有删减，标题系编者所加）

（This article is for the author《End This Depression Now！》The preface of the book。Have cut the original，Title is editor added）