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“躺着吃利差”落下融资饥渴症 保险业今年融资规模或超2000亿--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-10
大多数寿险公司过度依赖“资产管理型”盈利模式,即利润主要来源于利差。在这种盈利模式下,一旦资本市场不理想,保险公司当期的盈利能力将大大下降,资本“饥渴症”便久治不愈。
Most life insurance company relying too much on“Asset management”Profit model,Such as profit stems from the benchmark。In this mode profits,Once the capital market is not ideal,The insurance company the profitability of the current period will be dramatically reduced,capital“Is very hungry”And chronic。
⊙记者 黄蕾 ○编辑 枫林
Reporter HuangLei ⊙ ○ edit maple's woods
从2010年的865亿,到2011年的1952亿,再到2012年超2000亿的保守预期,国内保险业的融资额度呈现成倍增长。
From 2010 in 86.5 billion,To 2011 in 195.2 billion,More than 200 billion to 2012 of the conservative expectations,Domestic insurance amount of financing present increase exponentially。
保险业融资潮起,是饥渴症还是求发展?表面上看,2011年以来的两轮融资潮,源起股市萎靡下大量投资浮亏对保险公司资本的消耗。但若探究本质,之所以被股市牵着鼻子走,主因是产品结构走向畸形,过度依赖“利差”所日渐爆发的后遗症。
Insurance industry financing tide,Is very hungry or for development?On the surface,Since 2011 the two rounds of financing tide,Origin of weak stock market investment FuKui to insurance company capital consumption。But if explore the essence,Are the stock market to the nose,This is largely due to the product structure towards deformity,Excessive dependence on“spread”The growing outbreaks of sequelae。
如若不解决本质问题,困扰保险公司的融资“饥渴症”,将很可能从最初的“急性病”演化为“慢性病”,继而成为行业的一种常态。
If it does not solve the nature of the problem,Troubled insurance company financing“Is very hungry”,Will likely from the original“Acute disease,”Evolution for“Chronic diseases”,And then become the industry a normal state。
融资饥渴两极分化 Financing hunger polarization
2009年、2010年,国内保险业融资规模基本保持在800亿至900亿。然而步入2011年之后,这个数字开始发生了微妙的变化。
2009 years、2010 years,Domestic insurance financing scale basic keep in the 80 billion to 90 billion。However into 2011 years later,This figure has begun to had had a subtle change。
根据中信建投研究员缴文超的统计测算,2011年,整个保险业的融资规模大概在1952亿左右。“其中,上市险企通过股权融资770亿,非上市险企股权融资604亿,所有险企发行次级债融资578亿。”这也是长期关注保险业资本问题的缴文超,首次对外透露这组数据。
According to citic researchers pay WenChao of statistic,2011 years,The insurance industry financing scale will be about 195.2 billion。“Among them,Enterprises listed risk through equity financing 77 billion,Private insurance enterprises equity financing 60.4 billion,All risks enterprises subordinated debt issued 57.8 billion financing。”This also is the long-term attention problems WenChao pay insurance capital,The first foreign has revealed that it set of data。
从上半年融资情况来看,2012年保险业的融资需求,有过之而无不及。缴文超说,“目前上市险企已披露的次级债、可转债、债务融资工具,加上中国人保即将启动的IPO计划,预计上市险企融资规模在1300亿至1400亿。非上市险企融资规模至少在500亿至600亿。”因此,保守预计,2012年保险业融资需求将达到2000亿。
In the first half from financing situation,In 2012 the financing needs of the insurance industry,More so。Pay WenChao said,“Currently listed risks disclosed subprime debt enterprises、Convertible bonds、Debt financing instruments,With China is about to start the insurer IPO plan,Listed risk is expected to stand financing scale in the 130 billion to 140 billion。Private insurance enterprises financing scale at least in 50 billion to 60 billion。”so,Conservative is expected to,2012 financing needs insurance industry will reach to 200 billion。
若以融资规模来看,上市险企占比较大,达到七八成。但由于牵涉机构较多,融资渠道有限,非上市中小型险企的融资需求更为迫切。而从短期来看,整个保险业的融资饥渴呈现两极分化现象,即大险企今年偿付能力基本不成问题,中小险企下半年的融资需求仍然存在,但压力相对减小。
If with financing scale,Listed risks of enterprises is larger,Seven to eighty percent。But because more involved institutions,Financing channel limited,Small and medium-sized private enterprises risk the financing needs of more urgent。And in the short term,The insurance industry financing present thirst polarization phenomenon,That risks enterprises this year solvency basic is a problem,Small and medium-sized risks in the second half of the enterprises financing needs still exists,But the pressure is less。
虽无近忧、但有远虑。一位投行人士告诉记者,根据他们对保险业资本的压力测试,假设在资本市场不出现剧烈波动,业务稳步发展的情况下,保险业此轮募集到的资金可支撑至2013年上半年。“我们预计,2013年下半年至2014年上半年,保险业将迎来下一轮融资高峰。”
Although no close care、But there are ahead。An investment bank people told reporters,According to their capital of insurance industry of the pressure test,Assume that the capital market with drastic fluctuations,Business steady development,This round of insurance money was raised to support to the first half of 2013。“We expect,The second half of 2013 and the first half of 2014,Insurance industry is bracing the next round of financing peak。”
过度依赖利差症 Excessive dependence on disease spread
保监会目前对正常类保险公司偿付能力充足率的底线是150%。一旦低过这条监管“红线”,保险公司便不得不扛起融资大旗,否则相关业务的开展将会受限。
Circ to normal kind of insurance company at present the solvency adequacy bottom line is 150%。Once the low this article supervision“Red line”,The insurance company will have to carry a financing,Otherwise related business in will be limited。
有人感慨地说,保险业务发展过快和股市下跌太猛,是近年来加速保险资本消耗的两大“杀手”。
Somebody regrets ground say,Insurance business development too fast and the market fell too scary,In recent years is to accelerate the consumption of two big insurance capital“killer”。
但这仅仅是表象。保险公司的业绩表现之所以被资本市场牵着鼻子走,其中一大原因便是越走越偏、几近畸形的产品结构。
But this is just the representation。Insurance company performance was the capital market to the nose,One big reason is more walk more partial、The product structure of nearly deformity。
这几年,绝大多数寿险公司都主打5年期储蓄替代型产品,主要通过银行渠道进行销售。这类产品保障成分低,期限短,不仅有悖于监管提倡的“保险产品回归保障”的基调,而且对资本的消耗很大。
Over the past few years,Most of the life insurance company is main 5-year substituted saving products,Mainly through the bank channels of sales。This kind of product security component low,Short term,Not only goes by supervision“Return to guarantee insurance products”Fundamental key,And to the capital cost is very large。
一家寿险公司总经理直言不讳:“在累计保费相同的情况下,目前银保市场上主流的短期趸交产品对首年资本的占用,约为10年期交长期保障期产品的6倍之多。”
A life insurance company general manager to call a spade a spade:“In total the same premium,At present the market of silver mainstream short-term barges pay for the first year of the capital products take up,About the 10-year into long-term security issue 6 times of products。”
行内有这样一句话,“交费期短的比交费期长的保险产品,对资本的消耗更大;返还类产品比非返还类产品,对资本的消耗更大;银保产品比个险产品,对资本的消耗更大。”
The industry has such a word,“Fee of short-term fee period insurance products than long,To the capital more consumption;Return the products better than the return of products,To the capital more consumption;The silver products than a dangerous products,To the capital more consumption。”
然而,在市场环境、销售业绩的压力下,不少寿险公司迷失了方向,选择了资本消耗大、但保费流入快的短期趸交产品。
however,In a market environment、Sales performance under pressure,Many life insurance companies got lost,Choose the capital consumption、But the premium into fast short-term barges pay products。
从很大程度上来说,正是基于这种产品结构,导致了大多数寿险公司过度依赖于“资产管理型”的盈利模式,即:利润主要来源于利差。在这种盈利模式下,一旦资本市场不理想,保险公司当期的盈利能力将大大下降,资本“饥渴症”便久治不愈。
For the most part,It is based on this kind of product structure,Led to most life insurance company in excessive dependence on“Asset management”The profit pattern of,namely:Profit stems from the benchmark。In this mode profits,Once the capital market is not ideal,The insurance company the profitability of the current period will be dramatically reduced,capital“Is very hungry”And chronic。
国际上可参考的经验告诉我们,保险公司若想改变被股市牵着鼻子走的现状,就需要在产品及利润结构上转型。为业内人士所熟知的是,保险公司的利润由费差、利差、死差三部分构成,尤其是死差,因为不受宏观调控和资本市场波动的影响,最能体现经营者的能力,所以应该成为保险公司最主要的利润来源。
The reference experience tells us,The insurance company to change is the stock market to the nose of the status quo,It needs to be in the products and profits structure transformation。For industry insiders is well known,The insurance company profits by fee is poor、spread、Death sent three parts,Especially die poor,Because from macro regulation and capital market fluctuations,Shows the ability of the operators,So should become the insurance company's main source of profits。
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