随着美国经济的逐步复苏，至2013年下半年，当市场形成对美联储加息的预期时，可能引发中国国内套利资本大规模流出，将挤破楼市泡沫，对转型中的中国经济带来冲击。

As the U.S. economy is gradually recovery，To the second half of 2013，When the market form to further fed rate rises when the expected，Could cause China's domestic arbitrage capital mass outflow，Will be crowded break the property market bubble，To the transition of China's economic impact。

　　◎文/CBF记者 郁风

Money text/CBF reporter YuFeng

　　备受关注的7月宏观经济运行数据日前出炉，多项数据远逊于市场预期，CPI、PPI、工业增加值、出口及新增贷款等更是创下新低，反映中国经济仍处于底部。

Much attention has been paid to the July macroeconomic operation data released recently，A number of data is far more limited than market expectations，CPI、PPI、Industrial added value、Exports and new loans is set, such as low，Reflecting China's economy is still at the bottom。

　　在近日接受《中国经贸聚焦》记者专访时，知名学者、华东师范大学国际关系与地区发展研究院教授余南平就此表示，中国经济已步入减速周期，未来几年GDP增长率或呈现缓慢、相对匀速的下降趋势，稳增长政策并不能阻止这一过程的发生。他同时特别指出，中国经济前景面临的最不确定因素是：随着美国经济的逐步复苏，至2013年下半年，当市场形成对美联储加息的预期时，可能引发中国国内套利资本大规模流出，将挤破楼市泡沫，对转型中的中国经济带来冲击。

In the recently accepted《Focus on China's economic and trade》Reporter when the interview，Famous scholars、East China normal university international relations and regional development institute professor YuNaPing expresses at this point，China's economy has already entered in the reduction period，The next few years on GDP growth or slow、Relatively uniform motion in a downtrend，Steady growth policy and can't stop this process happened。He also notes that，China's economic prospects facing the most uncertain factors are：As the U.S. economy is gradually recovery，To the second half of 2013，When the market form to further fed rate rises when the expected，Could cause China's domestic arbitrage capital mass outflow，Will be crowded break the property market bubble，To the transition of China's economic impact。

　　

已步入减速周期 Is stepping into the reduction period

　　《中国经贸聚焦》（下称CBF）：国家统计局8月9日公布的数据显示，7月CPI同比上涨1.8％，创下30个月以来新低，PPI同比下降2.9％，连续5个月负增长。关于外界对中国经济通缩风险的担忧您怎么看？

《Focus on China's economic and trade》（Next says CBF）：The national bureau of statistics announced on August 9, data show，July CPI rose 1.8% year-on-year，Hit a new low since 30 months，PPI dropped 2.9% year-on-year，Continuous five months of negative growth。About the outside world to the Chinese economy the risk of deflation concerns what do you see？

　　余南平：我不认为中国经济会陷入长期通缩。CPI跌破2％只是暂时的现象，还不能掉以轻心，一方面自全球金融危机后国际均衡粮价一直没有跌，目前国际粮价更出现持续上涨，而中国很多农产品都依赖于进口，另一方面猪价正处于历史低点，农民不愿养猪，预计到明年春节前后生猪供应可能开始紧张，因此通胀的压力还是存在的。明年CPI有可能上涨至3％-3.2％左右的水平。而PPI由于淘汰落后产能，将维持持续下跌的态势。

YuNaPing：I don't think that China's economy will fall into long-term deflation。CPI fell below 2% is only a temporary phenomenon，Also cannot treat STH lightly，On the one hand from the global financial crisis, the international balance after food prices has not fall，The international food prices continue to rise more appear，While many of China's agricultural products relies on import，On the other hand, prices are at record lows，Farmers don't want to pigs，Next year is expected to around the Spring Festival pig supplies may begin to nervous，So the pressure of inflation still exists。CPI next year may rise to 3% - 3.2% level。PPI and due to the elimination of backward production capacity，Will keep falling trend。

　　CBF：从7月份工业增加值、出口及价格数据等来看，外需疲弱（7月出口同比增幅甚至暴降至1%）仍在持续，而内需没有明显回暖，多数观点都认为中国经济企稳态势未明。您如何看待未来中国经济的硬着陆风险？

CBF：From July industrial added value、Export and price data to see，Weak now（July export the year-on-year growth rate dropped to 1% or even violence）continues，And domestic demand was not significantly milder，Most of the view that China's economy stabilises situation is unknown。How do you think of the future of China's economy a hard landing risk？

　　余南平：2008年金融危机后全球联合救市，美国出台量化宽松，欧洲采取财政刺激政策，包括中国推出“4万亿”经济刺激计划，促成了2009年到2011年中的一个反弹，现在则是出现了二次探底的回落。

YuNaPing：After the financial crisis in 2008 global joint save city，The United States issued quantitative easing，European fiscal stimulus policy，Including China launched“4 trillion”Economic stimulus plan，Contributed to 2009 to 2011 of a rebound，Is now appeared secondary exploratory bottom back。

　　在全球化背景下，中国自身的经济总量和内需能力是无法独自承担全球的经济杠杆的，只能顺势而为，将GDP增长率由原来的两位数调整到今年7.5％的目标。从资源供应能力、外需以及劳动力等诸多要素角度来看，中国正面临工业化减速的转型阶段。当年美国1960年代到1980年代大概用了20多年才完成从制造业国家到消费型国家的转型，中国要耗费的周期肯定也不会很短。

Under the background of globalization，China's own economy and domestic demand ability is alone can't bear the global economy lever，Can only take advantage of an opportunity and for，GDP growth rate will be the original two digits adjustment to this year's target of 7.5%。From the resource supply capacity、Overseas market demand and labor force, and many other factors point of view，China is faced with the transformation of industrial reduction stage。In the United States in the 1960 s to 1980 s probably spent more than 20 years to finish from a manufacturing country to the transformation of consumer countries，China will take cycle is certainly not very short。

　　中国现在每年40余万亿元的GDP总量不可能一直维持两位数的高增长，再过数年，或许中国经济增速会降至5％-6％左右，我认为是比较合理的，因为届时体量和基数更大。对于宏观政策而言，就是要让其平稳减速，但并不能阻止这一历史过程的发生。

China is now more than 40 year one trillion yuan GDP couldn't be maintained double-digit growth，For many years to，Maybe China's economic growth will fall to 5% - 6%，I think is more reasonable，Because the mass base and more big。As for the macro policy，Is to make its smooth deceleration，But it can't stop this historical process happened。

　　我也不同意中国经济将硬着陆的观点，因为现在的减速是一个缓慢、相对匀速的着陆过程。但减速肯定还将持续，因为新兴经济的总量占比还不到2％，不足以撬动如此体量的经济迅速完成转型。这波经济增速下行和结构调整将是一个长周期的过程，在30年高增长后，花8-10年的时间完成缓慢调整，为下一轮增长做动力准备是正常的，而下一轮增长速度也会有所减慢。

I don't agree with the Chinese economy will hard landing point of view，Because the reduction is a slow、Relatively uniform landing process。But slowdown would certainly will also continue，Because the amount of emerging economies than accounts for less than 2%，Not enough to move so mass rapid economic complete transformation。This wave of economic growth down and structure adjustment will be a long period of the process，In the 30 years after growth，Spend 8-10 years of time to finish the slow adjustment，For the next round of growth do power preparation is normal，And the next round of growth speed will slow down somewhat。

　　

稳增长压力重重 Steady growth of pressure

　　CBF：7月新增信贷5401亿元，创10个月来新低，M1（狭义货币供应量）同比增速也比上月下降0.1个百分点，表明企业需求下滑。今年央行已经两次降准降息，但连续释放流动性的做法似乎收效不大，基于当前稳增长的压力，您认为货币政策是否有进一步调整的需要？

CBF：July new credit 540.1 billion yuan，Gen 10 months to new lows，M1（Narrow money supply）Year-on-year growth also fell 0.1% last month，It shows that the enterprise decline in demand。This year the central bank has two drop must cut interest rates，But continuous release liquidity approach seems to be not effective，Based on the steady growth of pressure，Do you think whether monetary policy further adjustment needs？

　　余南平：目前的货币政策，央行调降存款准备金率的手段已经失灵。经济的下滑导致企业没有了贷款需求，有需求的往往都是些负债要倒闭的企业，再释放流动性银行也贷不出去。

YuNaPing：The current monetary policy，The central bank deposit reserve rate reduction means has failure。The economic downturn led to enterprise without a loan demand，The needs of the often is all some liabilities to go out of business enterprise，To release the liquidity bank also credit not go out。

　　相比之下，降息以及财政杠杆的作用更为有效。从目前较低的CPI来说，央行还可以继续降息对经济进行略微的刺激，尤其在企业压力很大的情况下，需要采取像上一次非对称降息（降低贷款利率，维持存款利率不变）的做法，让银行原本过高的利润反哺企业。央行应该审时度势进行快速调整，八九月份就可以选择一次降息，待明年CPI上涨时再进行加息。当然，可调整的空间并不大，也就是两次降息每次0.27％的水平。

Compared with，To cut interest rates and financial leverage role more effective。From the current low for CPI，The central bank also can continue to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy slightly，Especially in the enterprise under the condition of under a lot of pressure，Need to take as the last asymmetric to cut interest rates（Lower loan interest rates，Maintain deposit interest rates unchanged）practice，Let the bank had high profit back-feeding enterprise。The central bank should size up the situation of rapid adjustment，Eight September can choose a rate cut，CPI rise next year to raise interest rates again。Of course，Adjustable space is not big，Is every time two cuts level of 0.27%。

　　CBF：年中经济工作会议已经提出要把稳增长放在更加重要的位置。您认为稳增长的关键点在哪里？在经济增速下行的背景下，如何平衡稳增长和调结构的关系？另外，在稳增长的压力下，据称，地方版的“4万亿”投资计划已经悄然启动，您对此怎么看？

CBF：Years economic working conference has put forward to want dependable growth in a more important position。Do you think the steady growth of the key points in where？In the background of economic growth down，How to balance steady growth and adjustable structure of the relationship？In addition，In the stability under the pressure of growth，it，Local version of the“4 trillion”Investment plan has been quietly start，How do you have？

　　余南平：现在国家最需要做的事情应该是通过结构性减税的办法，对产能过剩行业比如钢铁、造船等维持税率不动，对符合经济转型方向的高端制造、新材料等行业以及能够吸纳就业的中小微企业进行减税，引导社会资源，调动民间资本进行转型投资，同时原有的垄断、管制还需要放松。

YuNaPing：Now the country's most need to do things should be through the structural tax reduction method，To overcapacity industry such as iron and steel、Shipbuilding maintain rate did not move，In accordance with the direction of economic transformation of high-end manufacturing、New materials, and other industries, and can absorb employment of small and medium-sized micro enterprise tax cuts，Guide social resources，Arouse folk capital transformation investment，At the same time the original monopoly、Control also need to relax。

　　稳增长和调结构之间在具体操作层面确实存在一定的矛盾。在稳增长上，从目前来看消费无法成为中国经济增长的主动力，较之10年前消费增长也就大概上升了2个百分点，主要来自城镇化改造和新农村建设带来的消费需求增加。要实现稳增长，肯定要在保持对结构转型的控制的同时，增加一些重点项目的投资。我认为有两个方面的途径可以进行：一是选择投资一些民生项目，比如教育、医疗、保障房等；还有就是加大国防工业投入，将国防开支占财政收入的比重从目前的1.4％增加到3％的平均水平，这种长线的对于高端技术装备等的投资可以产生技术溢出，带动社会的技术创新，使转型得益。

Steady growth and adjustable structure between the concrete operation level exists certain contradictions。In the steady growth，In the immediate term consumption can't become the growth of China's economy active force，Compared with 10 years ago consumption growth will probably rose by 2%，Mainly from urbanization transformation and new rural construction brings consumer demand increase。To achieve steady growth，Sure to keep on the structural transformation of the control at the same time，Add some key project investment。I think there are two aspects of the way can be：One is choosing to invest in some people's livelihood project，Such as education、medical、Safeguard room and so on；There is increasing defense industry investment，Will defense spending accounts for the proportion of revenue from the current 1.4% to 3% of the average level，The long-term for high-end technology equipment investment can produce technology spillover，Drive the social and technical innovation，Make for the transformation。

　　至于一些地方再通过高负债的方式去搞新一轮刺激计划，我并不赞同。本来地方政府负债压力就非常大，地方债务平台经过一年多的清理但问题并没有得到很好的解决，如果这时候再去大规模投资一些所谓的公共设施，地方财力是无法承担的。随着经济下行和地产调控，作为地方“第二财政”的土地出让金已大幅减少，地方税收增长也在减弱。而且新一轮经济也只是地方政府的想法，我不认为国家发改委会批准这些项目，因为其对于调结构将构成负面影响。

As for some places again through the high debt ways to make a new round of stimulus plan，I don't agree with。Was the local government debt pressure is very big，Local debt platform after more than a year of clear but the problem and not to obtain the very good solve，If at this time to large-scale investment some so-called public facilities，Local finance is unable to bear。Along with the economic descending and real estate regulation，As a place“The second financial”Land transfer fund has greatly reduced，A local tax increase less。And a new round of economic is just the idea of local government，I don't think the national development and reform commission approved the project，Because of its for adjustable structure will form a negative impact。

　

　应尽快开征房产税 As soon as possible should be collecting the housing property tax

　　CBF：年中经济工作会议还提出了继续调控楼市，但在货币政策放松以及地方政府屡屡微调行为强化预期的背景下，近期楼市还是逆势走出了一波反弹行情。您认为新的调控措施有无可能祭出，未来楼市走势可能会怎样？

CBF：Years economic working conference also puts forward continue to control the property market，But in monetary policy to relax and local government repeatedly trimming behavior under the background of strengthening expected，The recent property market still contrarian walked out of a wave of market rebound。Do you think the new regulation measures possible offering out，The future trend of the property market may be how？

　　余南平：住房是个长期需求，房贷要持续二三十年，为什么中国的内需上不去？就是因为短期需求能力太弱，被住房等长期需求挤压。这是目前消费结构不合理之处。如果房价能够回到一个合理水平——按照美国上世纪60年代的经验，股票市场财富每增加1美元，带动6美分的消费，房地产价格均衡则将释放比它更大的消费——如果5年左右的家庭收入能够买套房子，其他的钱就能用于消费更多的内需品。

YuNaPing：Housing is a long-term demand，Mortgage to last for two hundred and thirty years，Why are China's domestic demand couldn't get on？Is because of short-term demand ability is too weak，Be housing and other long term demand extrusion。This is the consumption structure is not reasonable place。If house prices to return to a reasonable level -- according to the experience of the United States in the 1960 s，The stock market wealth increase every $1，Promote the consumption of the six cents，Real estate prices equilibrium will release than it greater consumption -- if 5 years family income to buy a house，Other money can be used to consume more domestic demand product。

　　前段时间的限购总体而言还相对比较成功，毕竟抑制住了房价的过快上涨。但它作为一种行政手段肯定不是最恰当的办法，操作上也很困难，容易发生一些地方打擦边球的现象。最好的办法是通过财政税收杠杆来抑制过度投机。未来两年内应尽快开征房产税，可采取差额累进的做法，对一家一户保有的一套自有住房免征，对第二套改善型住房进行征税，第三套及以上的投资型住房则征收更高的税率。先对全国70个大中城市的存量房产征税，然后逐步向地级城市过渡。通过这种方式，目前市场上囤积的一些房产可能就会抛出，真正平衡市场供需。

Some time ago to be restricted the whole is relatively successful，After all, restrain the house prices rising too fast。But it as a kind of administrative means to be sure it is not the most appropriate way，The operation is very difficult also，Prone to some places play edge ball phenomenon。The best way is through the tax revenue lever to curb excessive speculation。The next two years as soon as possible should be collecting the housing property tax，Can adopt balance progressive approach，A family on a possess a set shall be exempted from the self-owned housing，The second set to improve type housing tax，The third set and more investment housing is higher rates of tax collection。First to the national 70 large and medium-sized cities in the inventory of real estate tax，And then gradually to a regional urban transition。In this way，Stock on the market at present some of the real estate may be out，The real market supply and demand balance。

　　如果继续严格执行限购，特别包括房产税如果推出的话，明年房价可能会回到一个平稳的水平，价格略有下跌，但中央也不希望房价暴跌，因为经济转型还远没有完成，房价暴跌会带来银行债务问题、社会破产问题等。

If you continue to be restricted strictly carry out，Special including housing property tax if out of words，Next house prices may return to a smooth level，Prices were slightly down，But the central also don't want a housing slump，Because economic transformation is far from complete，A housing slump will bring bank debt problem、Social bankruptcy question and so on。

　　事实上，房地产说到底不仅是个经济问题，更多是政治和社会问题，考验着执政党的能力和理念，体现其是否真正考虑和保障普通公民居住的基本权利，是国家现代性的组成之一。

In fact，Real estate in the final analysis is not only an economic problem，More is a political and social problems，Test the ruling ability and the idea，Reflects its really consider and guarantee the basic rights of living ordinary citizens，The composition of the modernity is one of the countries。

　　

面临的最不确定因素 Facing the most uncertain factors

　　CBF：目前中国稳增长和调结构的国际环境如何？此外，有观点称，随着中国经济减速，资本流出的迹象开始显露，您怎么看待？

CBF：China's steady growth and adjustable structure of international environment？In addition，Have a point of view say，With China's economic slowdown，Signs of capital outflow began to show，How do you look at？

　　余南平：从国际环境来看，目前美国正在缓慢复苏，天然气技术的突破带来新能源领域的一个亮点，同时部分制造业开始向本土回归，包括中国劳动力成本上升以及美国能源价格较低等因素导致了这种回流。美国坏账已经清理，经济上没有什么问题，将保持在2％左右的增长率。欧洲的情况就比较糟糕，欧债危机其实是“最优货币区理论”的一种现实尝试的失败，欧元区至少很难满足福利要素、资本流动监管等条件，这是货币的天然结构问题。欧洲问题要彻底解决可能需要5-8年的时间。在此情形下，中国很难指望外需能有较大的回暖。

YuNaPing：See from the international environment，At present the United States is a slow recovery，The breakthrough of gas technology brings new energy field of a window，At the same time some in manufacturing began to return home，Including China labor costs rose and the United States energy prices lower factors contributed to this kind of return。The United States has bad debt clean，Economic do not have what problem，Will remain at around 2% growth rate。Europe's situation is bad，The debt crisis is actually“The optimum currency area theory”A real attempt to failure，The euro area at least it is difficult to meet the welfare elements、Capital flows supervision conditions，This is the currency of natural structural problems。European questions to completely solve may need to 5-8 years of time。In this case，Now it is difficult to expect China to have larger milder。

　　资本流出问题在近期人民币汇率上已经有所体现，人民币停止了长期以来持续升值的步伐，在一个区间内进行震荡。但这个区间还是相对合理的，因为支撑人民币升值的核心动力还是劳动生产率的提高，而2011至2012年中国的劳动生产率提高速度在下降。同时，资本大规模的流出没有相应数据支持，国际上也没有更多吸收流动资本的去处，美国国债等投资品的收益率都处于很低的水平。这种波动基本上还是属于短暂的再平衡的过程。

Capital outflow problem in the near future on the RMB exchange rate has been reflected，RMB stopped for a long time the pace of continue to rise，In a concussive interval。But the interval or relatively reasonable，Because support the appreciation of the renminbi core power or labor productivity，And 2011 to 2012, China's labor productivity increase speed on the decline。At the same time，The scale of the capital outflow no corresponding data support，The international also no more absorption floating capital place，The United States Treasury bonds and investment yields are at a very low level。This wave basically still belongs to short to balance process。

　　不过，值得高度警惕的是，明年有可能出现资本流出的一个高峰潮。随着美国经济逐步缓慢复苏和趋于稳定，加上今年底美国大选后，民主党如果继续执政，财政赤字能够得到进一步削减，由于目前美国0-0.25％的联邦基金利率是二战后最低的，美联储未来存在一定的加息可能性，而从底部加息将是一个较长周期的过程，这将造成全球资本的跨境流动。新兴市场国家将受到较大的冲击，其中，对中国经济的影响主要表现在楼市上，将引发国内套利资本大规模撤出，转而购买美国的股票、房产等资产，赶美元升值的场。

but，Worth highly vigilant is，Next year there may be a GaoFengChao capital outflow。As the us economy gradually slow recovery and tend to be stable，Plus, after the us election, end，The Democrats if continue to ruling，Fiscal deficit can get further cut，Because the United States currently has a 0-0.25% of the federal funds rate is the lowest after world war ii，The federal reserve has certain future possibility raised interest rates，And from the bottom raise interest rates will be a relatively long period of the process，This will contribute to global capital cross-border flow。Emerging market countries will be greater impact，the，The impact on the Chinese economy mainly displays in the property market，Will trigger a large-scale domestic arbitrage capital withdraw，To buy stock in the United States、Housing and other assets，Drive the dollar's field。

　　这是大概率事件，可能性估计在六七成，时间约在2013年下半年，9-10月间。这是未来中国经济前景面临的最不确定因素，有可能成为中国经济的转折点。

This is a big probability event，Possibility estimation in six or seven into，Time about in the second half of 2013，9-10 month。This is China's future economic prospects facing the most uncertain factors，May be the turning point of the Chinese economy。

　　因此，中国在全球金融危机后信贷大规模扩张制造泡沫之后，当前不能再制造更大的泡沫尤其是在房地产上，否则泡沫越大届时中国经济将遭遇的问题越大。楼市按照目前的调整旋律不会暴跌，未来中国房价如果发生暴跌，真正的原因只会是市场形成对美国升息的预期，美元走强，全球发生跨国资本流动，将中国房地产泡沫挤破。

therefore，China in the global financial crisis after the large expansion of credit after manufacturing foam，The current can't create more foam especially in the estate，Otherwise the bigger bubbles when the Chinese economy will encounter the problem。According to the current property market adjustment melody won't crash，China's house prices in the future if there is a crash，The real reason will only is market formation to the United States to raise interest rates expected，Strong dollar，The global multinational capital flows happened，Will China's real estate bubble squeeze broken。