董登新

DongDengXin

　　A股已到黎明前的黑暗

A shares has to the darkness before dawn

　　2007年11月，当牛市从6124点的巅峰开始滑落时，有牛人大声疾呼：“牛市并没结束，我们早就说过，中国股市至少会有连续五年的黄金时期，现在才刚过去二年多一点，轻言牛市结束那是错误的！中国牛市远没结束，年内沪指运行到八千点不会成问题的！”

In November 2007,When the bull market from the peak of the 6124 points when fall down,An ox people outcry:"The bull market and not over,We would have said,China's stock market will have at least five consecutive years of the golden age,Now just over the past two years more,Small talk bull market ends that is wrong!China's bull market is not over,Years running boomed to eight thousand points not debatable!"

　　不过，更多牛人当时预测的目标是：2008年8000点，2010年1万点！

but,More cattle had forecast goal is:In 2008, 8000 point,In 2010, 10000 point!

　　很快，股市从6124点跌至2000点附近，并继续杀向1664点，于是，这些牛人沉默了、傻眼了，也不吭气了！后来，有些牛人又重新发声了，不过，这时他们已从牛人变成了衰人。

soon,The stock market from 6124 points dropped to near 2000,And continue to kill to 1664 points,so,These cattle man was silent/Was dumbfounded,Also don't speak the!later,Some of the cattle people again the voice,but,Then they already from cattle people into the south people.

　　武汉科技大学金融证券研究所所长董登新在媒体文章中认为，如果就连当初最顽固不化的牛人都变成极度悲观时，这就是黎明前的黑暗！当初6000点你害怕过吗？从6000点跌落至1664点你经历过吗？那么，请问诸位：是当初6000点时的风险更大？还是现在2000点的风险更大？昨天6000点你敢无所顾忌地买入，今天2000点你敢买入并长期持有吗？

Wuhan university of science and technology financial securities institute director DongDengXin in media article think,If even had the most hard-core cattle people become when extreme pessimism,This is the darkness before dawn!Had 6000 points you afraid of?From 6000 points to 1664 points fall you experience?so,Excuse me, you:Is had 6000 points of a greater risk?Is now a greater risk of 2000 points?Yesterday 6000 point you dare unscrupulously to buy,Today 2000 point you dare to buy and hold for a long time?

　　钮文新

NiuWenXin

　　降准已酝酿得差不多了

Drop must have brewing get about

　　著名财经评论员钮文新在博客中指出，等降准多次扑空的投资者别急，从公开市场操作的近况看，降准已经酝酿得差不多了，估计用不了多久就会出台。

Renowned financial commentators NiuWenXin in the blog that,And drop quasi multiple fan the air investors don't worry,From the open market operation is to see,Drop must have been brewing get about,Estimation can't use how long can publish.

　　从近来央行货币政策的风格看，它们确实了突出“稳健”特征。这和前一阶段执行“紧缩货币政策”时的风格完全不同。那时紧锣密鼓，唯恐慢了，而现在放宽却显得保守异常。

Recently from the central bank's monetary policy style look,They did the outstanding"robust"characteristics.This and the previous stage execution"To tighten monetary policy"When the completely different style.When being,For fear of slow,And now relax was conservative anomaly.

　　估计央行所谓“稳健”的操作方式基本应当是“三部曲”：第一步，以货币市场利率平稳，并符合央行期望为目标，通过逆回购、央票到期不对冲等手段投放短期流动性；第二步，做投放数量的积累；第三步，当短期流动性投放数量积累到4500亿元够一次降准的投放量，然后降准一次。

Estimate central bank called"robust"The basic operation mode should be"trilogy":The first step,In monetary market interest rates steady,And in accordance with the central bank expected as the goal,Through the reverse repurchase/Central ticket matured not hedge, and other means on the short-term liquidity;The second step,Do put on the number of accumulation;The third step,When the short-term liquidity on the accumulated amount to 450 billion yuan is enough a drop quasi mechanization,Then drop quasi one.

　　当然，这个过程中央行必须解决一个问题，就是“降准之日必须是短期流动性大部分到期之时”，这样确保流动性平稳，而不至于出现一次降准后，还需要N次回购或发央票对冲多余流动性的被动局面。

Of course,This process the central bank must solve a problem,is"Drop quasi date must be short-term liquidity most of maturity",So to ensure smooth liquidity,And not one drop must appear after,Still need to N times buy-back or hair central ticket hedge excess liquidity passive situation.

　　李大霄

LiDaXiao

　　优质公司已具备钻石般机会

The company has high quality diamond sort opportunity

　　英大证券研究所所长李大霄在接受媒体采访时指出，你能不能在茫茫人海里面，没有人敢买股票的时候站出来，当众人去买股票的时候你保持一份冷静，你有可能就是赢家。所以在这个时候我敢站出来，当钻石底被众人批驳的时候我敢站出来，优质公司已经呈现出钻石般的投资机会，我相信这个世界仍然是有良知的，我相信不公正的情况一定会被纠正的，我相信钻石般的投资价值一定会显现出来的，这就是我的观点。

The big securities institute director LiDaXiao when being interviewed by the media pointed out,Can you in the boundless huge inside,No one dare to buy stocks stand out,In public people to buy stocks you keep a calm,You may is the winner.So at this time I dare to stand up,When diamond bottom was disproved all when I dare to stand up,High quality company has presented a diamond of investment opportunities,I believe that this world is still of conscience,I believe that the unfair situation must be corrective,I believe that the diamonds in investment value must be revealed out,This is my point of view.

　　你在茫茫人海中能不能坚持你的信念，我认为这是判断一个人敢不敢于在众人没有勇气的时候你鼓起你的勇气，敢不敢在众人被这个市场压的一点点信心都没有的时候，其实这个时候买股票才是真正的投资。而其他的时候买股票，买进的都是棉花，这个时候买进的是压缩饼干，很多很多的好东西被众人遗弃的时候，这个时候是有钻石，钻石底是这么一个概念、是这么一个理论。所以当其他的人讥笑钻石底被击穿的时候，你可以捡几颗回来，也许真的是钻石。这就是我的一个观点。

In the boundless huge you can not insist on your faith,I think this is judge of a man dare not dare to in all did not have the courage you summon up your courage,Dare in the market by the pressure of a little bit of confidence not,In fact this time to buy the stock is the real investment.And other times to buy shares,Buy is cotton,This time to buy is compressed biscuits,A lot of a lot of good things, and when abandoned,This time is a diamond,Diamond bottom is such a concept/Is such a theory.So when other people ridicule diamond bottom be breakdown time,You can pick up a few star back,Maybe it is diamond.This is one of my point of view.

　　尹中立

YinZhongLi

　　宏观经济政策正“去房地产化”

The macro economic policy is"To real estate change"

　　中国社会科学院金融研究所金融市场研究室副主任尹中立在博客中指出，从以往的房地产调控实践看，中央在经济增长放缓的情况下会放松对房地产市场的调控，最典型的情况是2008年底的政策大逆转。但今年的情况似乎有些特别：自年初以来我国经济运行出现了明显的减速的势头，但中央一直强调“坚持房地产调控政策不动摇”。更让市场意外的是，7月份的GDP已经跌破8%，而中央在8月初还派出督察组到地方检查房地产调控政策的落实情况。

The Chinese academy of social sciences institute of finance financial markets, deputy director of the laboratory YinZhongLi in the blog that,From the previous real estate regulation practice to see,The central in the economic slowdown will relax under the condition of the real estate market regulation,The most typical case is the end of 2008 policy reversal.But this year the situation seems to be something special:Since the beginning of economic operation in China since there is an obvious reduction of momentum,But the central has been emphasized"Adhere to the real estate regulation policy not be moved".More let market surprise,July's GDP has been below 8%,And the central in early August DuChaZu also sent to the local inspection real estate regulation policy to carry out the situation.

　　这一切似乎在暗示，中国的宏观经济决策正在选择新的方向，“去房地产化”成为新的共识。(孙 华)

All this seems to suggest that,China's macro economic decision is choosing a new direction,"To real estate change"Become the new consensus.(Sun China)