一、巴菲特小故事 a/Buffett small story

　　买了股票的人，都希望自己的股票大涨。可是，你有没有认真想过：股票凭什么会大涨呢？

Bought stocks,All hope to own the stock rose.but,Have you ever thought:Stock with what appears?

　　巴菲特本人在格雷厄姆——纽曼公司工作时，也曾经问他过的老板格雷厄姆：一位投资者如何才能确定，当一家股票的价值被市场低估时，它最终将升值呢？

Mr Buffett himself in graham - Newman company work,Also once asked he boss graham:A investors how to determine,When a stock market value has been underestimated when,It will eventually appreciation??

　　格雷厄姆只是耸耸肩，回答说：“市场最终总是这么做的。……从短期来看，市场是一台投票机；但从长期来看，它是一台称重机。”

Graham just shrugged his shoulders,Answered and said:"Market finally always so do....In the short term,The market is a voting machine;But in the long run,It is a weighing machine."

　　市场长期是一台称重机，这需要明确两个关键点：第一、巴菲特所说的长期至少是十年。他认为，如果不想持有一只股票十年，就不要持有十分钟。第二、称重机给公司称的是公司经营业绩，只要公司盈利不断增长，股价长期而言肯定出现与盈利增幅相应的涨幅。

The market long-term is a weighing machine,This need to clear the two key points:The first/Buffett said long-term at least ten years.He thinks,If you don't want to hold a stock ten years,Don't hold for ten minutes.The second/Weighing machine for the company said is company's manage achievement,As long as the corporate earnings growth,Share prices in the long run must appear and profit increase corresponding increase.

　　巴菲特说：“遵循格雷厄姆的教诲，我和芒格让可流通股票通过它们公司的经营业绩，而不是它们每天的股价甚至是每年的股价水平——来告诉投资是否成功。市场可能会在一段时期内忽视企业的成功，但最终会用股价上涨来确认企业的成功。”

Buffett said:"Follow the graham teachings,I and munger let negotiable stock through them the company's operating performance,Rather than each day's share price or even every year's share price level - - to tell investment success.The market may be in a period to ignore the success of an enterprise,But in the end will use stock prices go up to make sure the success of an enterprise."

　　正如《道德经》所说：侯王若能守之，万物将自宾。在股票市场上，如果我们遵守股市长期是称重机的规律，以合理价格买入那些未来盈利持续增长的好公司，一不用坐庄，二不用忽悠，长期持有，股价最终肯定会大涨。

as[Moral the]said:If you can keep the rank,Everything from Penn will.In the stock market,If we keep long-term stock market is the rule of weighing machine,With reasonable price to buy those future earnings growth of good company,One need not is the dealer,2 don't cheat,Long-term holding,Share prices eventually will surely rose.

　　二、《道德经》大智慧 two/[Moral the]Big wisdom

　　《道德经》第32章：道常无名，朴。虽小，天下莫能臣也。侯王若能守之，万物将自宾。天地相合以降甘露，民莫之令而自均。始制有名，名亦既有，夫亦将知止，知止可以不殆。譬道之在天下，犹川谷之于江海。

[Moral the]Chapter 32:Way often unknown,piao.Are small,The world mo can I also.If you can keep the rank,Everything from Penn will.In heaven and earth with dew,People don't of the order and from all.Initial system famous,Name also both,Husband will also know check,Know check can not almost.Pi tao in the world,The valley of sichuan to jianghai.

　　道本来一直是无名的状态，如同没有加工过的质朴的原木。照道所归纳的客观规律行事，总是需要杜绝个人的主观愿望，看起来似乎个人变得弱小了，但天下没有什么能够征服按照道来行事的人，因为天地本身就是按照道来运行的，与道同在，就是与客观规律同在，与天地同在。候王如果能遵守大道，就会和天下万物和谐共处，万物按照客观规律自行发展变化，却能得到最合乎候王利益的结果。如同天地相合，降下人间需要的雨露，没有人下令分配，老百姓却会自然地平均分配。人类在长期实践中，逐步认识了大道，开始对各种规律进行归纳和命名。既然认识了解了可以称得上大道的规律，就会知道个人所作所为是限度的，应该按照规律行事，不能过度人为干预，必须适可而止，知道适可而止才可以不会遇到危险遭受失败。大道对于天下来说，如同百川归于江海，不是人力强迫，而是让其自主随意流动，利用水往低处流的客观规律，让其自动前来归附。

Word had been is unknown state,Like no processed plain log.According to the objective law of the way of inductive act,Always need to put an end to personal subjective desire,It seems that the individual became the weak,But the world does not have what can conquer according to the way to do,Because heaven and earth itself is in accordance with the way to run,And way with,Is the objective law and presence,With heaven and earth with.Passenger WangRuGuo can abide by the road,Will and the harmonious coexistence of all things,All things according to the objective laws to development and change,But it can get the most appropriate syndrome WangLiYi results.As heaven and earth consistency,Lower the world needs of rain and dew,No one has ordered distribution,People will naturally average distribution.The human in the long-term practice,Gradually understanding the avenue,Began to various rule induction and named.Since know the law could be called avenue,Will know what the individual is limited,In accordance with the law should act,Cannot excessive human intervention,Must leave well enough alone,Know when to say when can not meet dangerous suffer defeat.Avenue for toward the world,As to the sichuan jianghai,It is not that human force,But let their independent random flow,Use water flows downwards objective law,Let the automatic joined to come.

　　三、刘建位道解巴菲特 three/Liu a way solution buffett

　　巴菲特喜欢用可口可乐的案例来说明股票市场长期是称重机：“1919年可口可乐股票首次公开上市，每股股价只有40美元，由于市场对可口可乐发展前景重新评估十分看看淡，到1920年底，股价跌到只有每股19.5美元。然而，如果把收到的股利再投资，那么最初的一股股票在1993年底的市值将超过210万美元，75年累计涨幅超过5.25万倍。”仅仅后面55年可口可乐销量增长就超过50倍，再加上不断提价推动盈利更大幅度增长，而盈利增长推动股价实现5万多倍的增长。

Buffett like to use Coca-Cola case to explain the stock market has long been weighing machine:"In 1919, Coca-Cola stock initial public offering,Share price is 40 dollars,As the market development prospect for Coca-Cola reassessment very see light,By the end of 1920,Share price fell to only $19.5 a share.however,If the received dividend reinvested,Then the initial spurts of ticket in the end of 1993 the market value of more than 2.1 million dollars,75 cumulative increase of more than 52500 times."Only 55 years behind Coca-Cola sales growth is more than 50 times,Plus the price continuously promote the profit growth more greatly,Earnings growth and promote the share price to realize the growth of more than 50000 times.

　　按照常用市盈率的股票估值方法，股价等于每股收益乘以市盈率，由于市盈率长期回归于平均水平，所以长期股价的增长主要来自盈利增长。巴菲特说：“可口可乐与吉列可说属于当今世界上最好公司中的其中两家，我们预期未来很多年间他们的盈利将会以惊人的速度高速增长。长期而言，我们持有这两家公司的股票价值也会以大致相同的比例增长。”

According to the common stock valuations of p/e ratio method,Share price equal to earnings per share multiplied by p/e ratio,Due to long-term returns to average p/e ratio,So long the share price growth came mainly from earnings growth.Buffett said:"Coca-Cola and Gillette can be said to belong to today's the best in the world of one of the two,We expect the future many years their earnings will be at an alarming rate high growth.In the long run,We hold the two companies' stock value will also to roughly the same ratio growth."

　　可是中国股市只有20多年历史的新兴市场会是称重机吗？

But China's stock market is only more than 20 years history of the emerging markets will be weighing machine?

　　我们来看一下白酒股：2001年度到2011年度五粮液(000858,股吧)10年净利润增长8倍，2001年底到2011年底股价上涨8倍；贵州茅台(600519,股吧)10年净利润增长26倍，股价上涨27倍；顺鑫农业(000860,股吧)10年净利润增长4.5倍，股价上涨4.5倍；伊力特(600197,股吧)10年净利润增长2.7倍，股价上涨2.3倍，老白干9年净利润增长4.2倍而股价增长3倍。洋河股份(002304,股吧)过去3年净利润增长3.3倍，同期股价上涨3倍。

We take a look at liquor shares:2001 year to 2011 year wu liang ye(000858,guba)10 years net profit growth 8 times,By the end of 2001 by the end of 2011 shares rose 8 times;Guizhou maotai(600519,guba)10 years 26 times net profit growth,Share price rises 27 times;The agreeable lei agriculture(000860,guba)10 years net profit increased by 4.5 times,Shares rose 4.5 times;Iraq's force(600197,guba)10 years net profit increased by 2.7 times,Shares rose 2.3 times,LaoBaiGan nine years net profit increased by 4.2 times and three times the share price growth.Yanghe shares(002304,guba)In the past 3 years net profit increased by 3.3 times,The share price rises 3 times.

　　譬道之在天下，犹川谷之于江海。海纳百川，不是强逼的，皆因水往低处流的客观规律。股价上涨十倍百倍万倍，不是人为的，皆因股市长期是称重机股价涨幅反映盈利增幅的客观规律。

Pi tao in the world,The valley of sichuan to jianghai.All rivers run into sea,Not have compelled,All because of water flows downwards objective law.Stock prices go up ten times as much as ten thousand times as much as one hundred times,Not the human,Because of the stock market are long-term is weighing machine share price increases reflect the objective laws of earnings growth.