⊙沈建光

⊙ ShenJianGuang

　　不出所料，除消费基本保持稳定外，在房地产、建筑业固定资产这早前的两大支柱投资大幅下降之时，8月宏观经济数据普遍都在低位。值得特别警惕的是，工业生产增速下滑至9%以下，已创下了2009年5月以来的最低值。这样悲观的数据似在说明，当前实体经济正走向硬着陆边缘。正如笔者一直强调的是，稳投资仍是当前稳增长的关键。而带动基础设施投资不仅需要投资政策支持，更需要信贷政策配合。

As expected,In addition to the basic consumption remained stable,In the real estate/Construction of fixed assets the earlier two big props investment sharply when the,August macroeconomic data generally in low.Deserves special alert is,Industrial production growth down to below 9%,Already a in May 2009, the lowest since.This gloomy data on the like,The current entity economy is to a hard landing edge.As the author has been the emphasis is,Steady investment is still the current stable the key to growth.And drive the infrastructure investment needs not only investment policy support,Need more credit policy fit.

　　结合早前的工业利润，8月工业增加值同比增速仅8.9%，笔者并不感到意外。1至7月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润同比下降2.7%，降幅比1至6月继续下降了0.5个百分点。有鉴于工业增速与第二产业增长率、GDP的关系都比较稳定，看来三季度经济增长数据低于二季度的可能性大增。1至8月固定资产投资同比增速为20.2%，比前个7月继续下滑0.2个百分点。分行业看，早前曾一度反弹的铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业投资仅为4.6%，比前7个月大降8.4个百分点，而道路运输业投资也回落至1.6%，比前7个月下滑0.8个百分点。这恰好解释了何以发改委对市政设施的审批速度空前加快。

Combined with earlier industrial profit,August industrial added value only 8.9% year-on-year growth,The author not surprised.1 to July the national industrial enterprises above designated size realized profit fell 2.7% year-on-year,A drop more than 1 to 6 months continue to fall by 0.5%.In view of the industrial growth and the second industry growth rate/The relationship between the GDP is stable,It seems the third quarter economic growth data is lower than the second quarter increased the possibility of.1 to 8 months fixed asset investment grew 20.2% year-on-year,Last July than 0.2% continue to slide.Branch line of business looks,Earlier once the bounce of the railway/ship/Aerospace and other transport equipment manufacturing investment is only 4.6%,The previous seven months big drop 8.4%,And road transportation investment has dropped to 1.6%,The previous seven months fell 0.8%.This just explains why the development of municipal facilities to the examining and approving the pace to the unprecedented speed up.

　　8月社会消费品零售总额同比名义增长为13.2%，较7月小幅上涨0.1个百分点。若剔除价格因素，12.1%的实际增速则与7月相同，显示消费基本处于平稳阶段。在对节能家电支持政策的鼓舞下，家用电器和音响器材消费同比增长12.1%，比7月提升了3.2个百分点。汽车销售增速则再创2.4%的新低。

August social total retail sales of consumer goods name year-on-year growth of 13.2%,July is a more modest 0.1%.If you eliminate price factors,12.1% of the actual growth is the same with July,Display the basic consumption in stationary phase.In the energy-efficient appliances support by policy,Household appliances and audio equipment consumption year-on-year growth of 12.1%,Improved by 3.2% than July.Car sales growth is hit a new low of 2.4%.

　　8月CPI小幅反弹至2%，食品价格回升是重要原因。8月食品价格一改早前环比下降的趋势，出现了新一轮上涨，环比价格上涨了1.5%，同比价格上涨了3.4%。而带动食品价格反弹的主要是蔬菜、肉类、蛋类、粮食和油脂等，而鲜果和水产品价格有所下降。

August CPI rebound slightly to 2%,Food is the important reason that the rebound in prices.August food prices change earlier link downward trend,Appeared a new round of rising,Link price rose 1.5%,Prices have risen by 3.4% year-on-year.And driving food prices rebound are mainly vegetables/meat/eggs/Grain and oil, etc,And the fresh fruit and aquatic products prices fell.

　　由于三季度政策放松慢于预期，笔者预计，三季度中国经济增长或将继续下降至7.4%。而如果政策力度不继续加码，四季度很难看到经济回稳。

Due to the third quarter policy relaxation slower than expected,The author is expected to,China's economic growth or the third quarter will continue to fall to 7.4%.And if policy efforts do not continue to pyramid,Four quarter it is difficult to see a stabilising the economy.

　　显然，硬着陆风险已引起了决策层的担忧。9月5日国家发改委集中批复了49个项目，其中涉及城市轨道交通建设规划项目共25个，总投资规模预计超过 8000亿。次日，发改委又陆续核准了11个项目。发改委如此加快审批基础设施项目的速度，正是希望在房地产受控之下，基础设施投资能够拉动投资回升。无疑，在经济下滑阶段，消费如能保持稳定已经实属不易，稳增长的重点仍然是稳投资。

obviously,The risk of a hard landing has caused concerns about decision-making.On September 5th the national development and reform commission concentrated reply the 49 project,Involving urban rail transit construction project planning a total of 25,The total investment is expected to more than 800 billion.The next day,Development and reform commission has approved and the 11 project.Development and reform commission (NDRC) examination and approval so speed up the speed of infrastructure projects,It is hope that in real estate under controlled,Infrastructure investment can drive investment rebounded.undoubtedly,In the economic downturn phase,Consumption such as can remain stable has really not easy,Steady growth the focus is still on the stable investment.

　　而发改委加快项目审批也并非初见，今年5月底温总理提及稳增长时，项目审批规模便空前加大。略有不同的是，近两日的项目审批更倾向于道路运输等基础设施投资。但从效果来看，过往的投资支持并未取得稳增长成效，主要不足在于缺少信贷政策的配合。例如，当前中长期贷款仍处于30%的低位，便是佐证。这样看来，在温和通胀水平之下，还需货币政策发力，特别是下降准备金率。

And the development and reform commission to speed up the project examination and approval is not new,At the end of may this year, prime minister wen jiabao mention steady growth,Project examination and approval scale and unprecedented increase.Is slightly different,Nearly two days of project examination and approval more inclined to road transportation infrastructure investment.But from the effects to see,Past investment support has not made steady growth results,The main deficiency lies in the lack of credit policy to cooperate.For example,The current long-term and medium-term loans is still in 30% of the low,Is evidence.so,In mild inflation under the level,Still need to monetary policy hair force,Especially decline reserve ratio.

　　当然，在稳增长的同时，也应该注意调结构，避免扩大风险。从这个角度来讲，财政政策亦可有所作为，通过结构性减税和发行调结构特别国债，专门用于保障房、基础设施、水利及新技术和新能源等项目建设，便能达到有效的刺激规模，也能作为杠杆带动地方融资与保障房建设，对稳增长与调结构均有裨益。总之，当前硬着陆风险加大之下，为稳增长，投资政策、财政政策、货币政策需要协调配合，共同发力。

Of course,In the steady growth at the same time,Should also pay attention to structure adjustment,Avoid enlarging risk.From this perspective,Fiscal policy can also make a difference,Through the structural tax cuts and distribution adjustment structure special Treasury bonds,Specially used for security room/infrastructure/Water conservancy and new technology and new energy projects,Can achieve effective stimulation scale,Also can be used as leverage drive local financing and safeguard room construction,To steady growth and adjustable structure are good.In a word,The current risk under a hard landing of the increase,For steady growth,Investment policy/Fiscal policy/Monetary policy needs coordination,Common hair force.

　　展望未来，笔者仍然认为，由于需求疲软、翘尾因素回落等因素，即使通胀有所反弹，也是温和的，更何况生产价格指数还处于通缩阶段，8月PPI同比下降了3.5%。因此，未来几个月通胀或将维持在2%上下，全年显著低于3%，货币政策放松的空间仍然存在。

Looking to the future,The author still think,Due to weak demand/Carryover effect factors such as the fall,Even though inflation rebounded,Is mild,Besides producer price index is still in the stage of deflation,August PPI dropped 3.5% year-on-year.therefore,The next few month inflation or will remain at 2% up and down,The significant lower than 3%,Monetary policy relaxation space still exist.

　　（作者系瑞穗证券亚太首席经济学家）

(The author is mizuho Asia Pacific chief economist)