每日经济新闻(博客,微博)记者 朱秀伟 实习记者 陈贤丽

Daily economic news(blog,Micro bo)Reporter ZhuXiuWei internship reporter ChenXianLi

　　美联储将于9月13日 （当地时间），即北京时间9月14日凌晨，结束为期两天的货币政策例会并公布决议结果。9月12日，在东方证券举办的一场策略会上，花旗集团大中华区首席经济学家沈明高非常明确地表示：QE3推出的概率是99%。

The federal reserve will be on September 13, (The local time),Which Beijing time in the morning on September 14,,Over two days of monetary policy meeting and publish the results of resolution.On September 12,,In the east of the securities held a strategy meeting,Citigroup chief economist in the greater China region ShenMingGao very clearly said:QE3 launched probability is 99%.

　对风险偏好属正面支持 To the risk preference of positive support

　　《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，对于QE3推出与否的疑问，沈明高态度非常明确，他认为推出概率是99%，“美联储在一定程度上也给出了很重要的信号，即如果美国经济不振、失业率持续保持高位时，美联储可能会做出明确反应，这个反应有利于遏制经济向下发展。我们的看法是，13号美联储开会的时候很可能会推出QE3，概率为99%”。

[Daily economic news]Reporter noticed,For QE3 launch or not doubt,ShenMingGao attitude is very clear,He thought out probability is 99%,"The fed to a certain extent, also gives a very important signal,That if the United States economic malaise/The unemployment rate consistently high,The fed may make clear reaction,The reaction to curb economic downward development.Our view is,13 the fed meeting is likely to launch QE3,Probability is 99%".

　　同时他认为QE3可能将以三种形式发生，“第一种是固定期限，比如说明年年终确定一个资产收购的计划，或是在一个固定期限内给出一个资产收购的额度；第二种是期限不固定的证券收购计划；第三种则可能更加激进，比如设定一个年度的门槛，如失业率维持在某个水平以上，或者CPI低于某个水平，美联储就继续购进国债，这三种可能性在某种程度上将会给市场注入更多的流动性。”

He also said QE3 may will use three kinds of form occur,"The first is a fixed term,For example the end of next year to determine an asset purchase plan,Or in a fixed period given a amount of purchase of the assets;The second is term is not fixed stock purchase plan;The third kind of may be more radical,Such as setting a year's threshold,If unemployment in a level above,Or CPI below a certain level,The federal reserve will continue to buy Treasury bonds,These three possibilities in some degree to the market will inject more liquidity."

　　对于QE3的影响，他认为“效果怎么样还有待评估，但总体来讲是比较提振市场的情绪，对风险偏好有正面的支持”。

For the influence of QE3,He thinks"What effect remains to be assessment,But generally speaking is more boost market mood,To the risk preference have positive support".

　　近期，不论是海外商品市场，还是股市，在QE3预期下，纷纷强劲上扬。一旦预期兑现，上涨是否会终结？

recent,Whether overseas commodity market,Or the stock market,In the QE3 expected,Have risen strongly.Once the expected cash,Whether you will end up?

　　沈明高认为“这种可能性存在”，不过要看具体方案。“如果像第三种比较激进的方式，若失业率不高于7%，通胀不高于3%的情况下，对市场的利好程度会明显大于有限度的QE3的效果。”同时，“QE3也可能比QE2力度弱一些”。

ShenMingGao think"The possibility exists",But to see the specific scheme."If, as the third is the radical way,If unemployment is not higher than 7%,Inflation is not higher than 3% of cases,The market bullish degree would be significantly greater than the effect of QE3 limited."At the same time,"QE3 may also than QE2 strength weak some".

　A股短期存反弹机会 A shares with short-term rebound opportunities

　　不论是欧洲还是美国都在纷纷“放水”，沈明高认为9月也是中国的一个重要政策窗口。

Whether Europe or the United States are in in succession"drain",ShenMingGao think September is one of China's important policy window.

　　“中国经济短期来讲，三季度可能持平，四季度有温和反弹，主要是基于对政策的判断，我们认为短期内，9月是一个很重要的政策窗口，就在国庆节放假之前”。

"China's economy in terms of short-term,Third quarter may be flat,Four quarter have mild rebound,Mainly based on the judgment of the policy,We believe that in the short term,September is a very important policy window,Before the National Day holiday".

　　对于近期发改委连续批准多个项目，他认为主要问题是资金。“政策放松的着力点主要是资金。资金主要来自三个方面，一是债券的发放，今年到7月已经发放了2.1万亿，基本跟去年的2.3万亿持平，如果持续，还有1万亿公司债可以发行；二是银行贷款，8月份的银行贷款实际超过7千亿，趋势是向全年8.5万亿迈进，不排除到年终超过8.5万亿。三是财政资金，温总理9月11日说有一万亿剩余财政资金可用，在过去的财政预算稳定资金里面大概有1700亿元左右可以支出”。

The recent development and reform commission for approval of the continuous multiple projects,He thought that the main problem is money."Policy relaxation point of strength is mainly funds.The fund is mainly from three aspects,One is the bond issue,This year to July 2.1 trillion have been released,With the same basic 2.3 trillion last year,If sustained,There are 1 trillion corporate debt may issue;The second is a bank loan,In August the actual bank loans more than 700 billion,Trend is towards to the 8.5 trillion,Don't expel year-end more than 8.5 trillion.The third is the financial capital,Premier wen jiabao said on September 11, one trillion residual fiscal funds,In the past fiscal budget stability in funds about 170 billion yuan can expenditure".

　　《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，在考虑上述3方面的支出都将在9月明确之后，沈明高认为，“将对股市有一个支持。短期有反弹机会，中期取决于政策能见度的提高”。但从中长期来看，“经济会继续下行，我们判断在未来三五年的增长率在6%～8%之间。”

[Daily economic news]Reporter noticed,In considering the three aspects of the expenditure will be in September after clear,ShenMingGao think,"Will the stock market have a support.Short-term rebound opportunities,Medium-term depends on the improvement of policy visibility".But from the long term,"The economy will continue to descending,We judge in the future 35 years of growth rate between 6% ~ 8%."