本报记者 陈岩鹏 肖君秀 袁益 北京、深圳、上海报道

Our reporter ChenYanPeng XiaoJunXiu YuanYi Beijing/shenzhen/Shanghai reported

　　9月12日，《华夏时报》记者在深圳宝安区宝源路与共乐路交界处看到，一条南行的四车道和宽阔的行人道被圈围起来，里面黄色、绿色、金属色三部吊车十多米高的“手臂”正在忙于移动，从三四米高的蓝色围板中传出大型机器打井挖土的刺耳声。

On September 12,,[The Chinese times]Reporter in shenzhen baoan district treasure source road and road intersection jihs see,A the south-bound four lane and broad walkway is ring inclose,Inside yellow/green/The metal color three department crane more than ten meters high"arm"Are busy moving,Three or four meters high from the blue coaming from the large machine to dig a well digging the jars.

　　这是国家发改委新近公布获批的深圳地铁11号线的碧海湾站施工现场，工地上标识着“11号地铁线11303—项目部”以及承建单位为“中铁航空港集团”的字样。

This is the national development and reform commission recently approved by the shenzhen subway line no. 11 of the big bay station construction site,The site identification with"11 subway lines 11303 - project department"And for the construction of the unit for"China railway airport group"".

　　9月5、6日两天，国家发改委在其网站上密集公布了批复的25个城轨项目，13个公路建设项目、10个市政类项目和7个港口、航道项目，涉及资金超过了1万亿元。这个资金规模比2008年底金融危机时获批的城轨项目还多4000亿。

September 5/6 two days,The national development and reform commission on its website intensive announced the approval of 25 city rail project,13 highway construction project/10 municipal kind of project and seven port/Channel project,Involved in capital more than 1 trillion yuan.The fund scale than the end of 2008 financial crisis approved city rail project has more than 400 billion.

　　熟悉发改委工作规律的人士告诉本报记者：“最近公布的获批项目只是一个开始，马上可能还会有一批基建投资项目陆续对外公布。”

Familiar with the development and reform commission (NDRC) work regular source told our reporter:"Recently published approved project is just a start,Immediately may also can have a batch of infrastructure investment project has announced."

　　但问题是，地方土地出让金收入大幅下降，对地方政府投资项目的进一步扩张形成明显的制约。分析人士预计，未来一段时间，不少地方政府可能将不得不品尝“巧妇难为无米之炊”的财政支出困局。

But the problem is,Place the land grant fee income to drop considerably,The local government investment projects for the further expansion of the form obvious restriction.Analysts expect,The next period of time,Many local governments may have to taste"One cannot make bricks without straw"Financial expenditure predicament.

　　解构万亿投资 Deconstruction trillions of investment

　　“公布的项目中，城轨项目居多，投资额也是最大的。”中国投资协会会长张汉亚9月11日对《华夏时报》记者说。

"Published in the project,City rail project is in the majority,Investment is also the biggest."China investment association ZhangHanYa on September 11,[The Chinese times]reporters.

　　张汉亚注意到，这25个城轨项目中，除了江苏省沿江城市群城际轨交网、内蒙古呼包鄂地区城际铁路规划两个区域城际铁路规划项目未披露投资金额，另外23个项目涉及总投资金额高达8418.15亿元。

ZhangHanYa noticed,This 25 city rail project,In addition to jiangsu province city along the river into the inter-city rail network/Inner Mongolia call package hubei area inter-city railway planning two area inter-city railway planning project did not disclose the amount of investment,23 other project involves the total investment amount is as high as 841.815 billion yuan.

　　而且，这一投资规模已经超过了“十五”和“十一五”期间各城市轨道交通固定资产投资完成额总和。

and,This investment is more than a"15"and"11th five-year plan"Each of the urban rail transit investment in fixed assets finish amount summation.

　　清华大学经济管理学院教授李稻葵对此大加赞赏，他在9月11日举办的夏季达沃斯论坛上公开表示，轨道交通对于大型城市而言是必走的一条路。

Tsinghua university economic management academy professor LiDaoKui praised it,He held on September 11, summer davos BBS on the public says,Rail transit for large cities in is will go a way.

　　本报记者梳理资料发现，国家发改委近期公布获批的城轨项目，大多数还是集中在像天津、沈阳、杭州、哈尔滨、兰州这样的直辖市或省会城市，此外还有深圳、常州、厦门等经济发达的大都市。

Our reporter combing material found,The national development and reform commission recently approved by the city rail project,Most still focus on such as tianjin/shenyang/hangzhou/Harbin/Lanzhou such municipality directly under the central government or capital city,In addition to shenzhen/changzhou/Xiamen economic developed metropolis.

　　记者发现，投资份额占比最大的是上海、广州和深圳。上海调整后的规划线路总长为250.55公里，估算总投资1586.91亿元，广州的总投资额为1241亿元，深圳也有1000亿元。

Reporter discovery,Investment share than the largest is the Shanghai/Guangzhou and shenzhen.Shanghai after the adjustment planning line whose total length is 250.55 kilometers,Estimate the total investment capital is 158.691 billion yuan,Guangzhou a total investment of RMB 124.1 billion yuan,Shenzhen also has 100 billion yuan.

　　密集公布的另一投资重点是公路建设。据统计，获批的13个公路建设项目中，涉及的新建和改扩建的公路里程数合计1966公里。从项目的分布来看，中西部地区就占了9条，相比东部明显占优。

Intensive published another investment is focused on highway construction.According to the statistics,The group of 13 highway construction project,Involved in the new and the reconstruction of the highway mileage total 1966 kilometers.The distribution of the project to see,The Midwest accounted for nine,Compared with the eastern obvious dominant.

　　此外还有7个港口、航道项目，这些项目主要集中在广东、福建东南沿海和长江流域地区。

In addition there are seven port/Channel project,These projects are mainly concentrated in guangdong/Fujian southeast coast and the Yangtze river region.

　　李稻葵将上述投资归类为广义的国土建设，即民生性建设。他说，“这类投资在未来还要大规模地推出，大规模地加快，哪怕是中央政府多发一点国债直接投资我觉得都应该。”

The investment LiDaoKui classified as a generalized land construction,That people naturally construction.He said,"This kind of investment in the future also launched on a large scale,On a large scale to speed up the,Even if the central government bonds are a direct investment I think should be."

　　发改委的公告栏还显示，河南、甘肃、内蒙古、重庆、陕西等地的9个污水处理工程和1个垃圾焚烧发电工程通过批复。

Development and reform commission (NDRC) showed that the bulletin board,henan/gansu/Inner Mongolia/chongqing/Shaanxi provinces of 9 sewage treatment works and a garbage incineration power generation engineering through the reply.

　　这是李稻葵倡导的第二类投资，即绿色新型产能。他表示，这类项目投资也是值得鼓励和支持的，让新产能冲击落后的、黑色的、污染的产能，通过这个方式让整个产业升级。

This is LiDaoKui advocate of the second kind of investment,Namely green new capacity.He said,This kind of project investment is also worth to encourage and support,Let the new capacity impact backward/black/Pollution capacity,Through this way, let the whole industrial upgrading.

　　不止一万亿 More than one trillion

　　历史总是惊人的相似。

History is always amazing similarity.

　　2008年12月，中央推出4万亿元拉动内需方案后，北京、广州等众多城市的轨道交通规划集中获批，总投资逾6000亿元，逼近3个三峡工程的总投资。

In December of 2008,The central launched 4 trillion yuan stimulating domestic demand after the scheme,Beijing/Guangzhou, many urban rail transit planning focus approved,With a total investment of more than 600 billion yuan,Approximation three gorges project total investment.

　　3年9个月后，相同的事情再度发生，城轨项目再次集中获批，而且投资力度更大。

Three years and nine months after,The same things happen again,City rail projects approved again concentration,And more investment.

　　在张汉亚看来，发改委集中公布批复了过万亿的投资项目，表明决策层对经济下行的担忧，想借此刺激经济增长，提振信心。

In ZhangHanYa seems,Development and reform commission announced the centralized reply trillion investment projects,Show that decision-making on economic descending concerns,Want to like to take this opportunity to stimulate economic growth,Boost confidence.

　　国家统计局刚刚公布的8月份经济数据总体不佳。8月工业增加值同比增幅降至8.9%，为39个月的低点；出口增速仍疲弱，进口意外负增长，预示着经济增速见底时间退后，整个经济寻底仍在继续。

The national bureau of statistics released just in August the overall economic data is not good.August industrial added value year-on-year growth rate fell to 8.9%,For 39 months of low;Export growth is still weak,Import unexpected negative growth,Indicates the economic growth see bottom time back,The whole economic found bottom continues.

　　尽管国家在今年4、5月份集中批复了一批重大基础设施项目，央行在6月和7月两度降息，但社会消费品零售总额增速一直徘徊在13%左右。

Although the national in April/May the concentrated rights to a number of major infrastructure projects,The central bank in June and July to cut interest rates twice,But social total retail sales of consumer goods has been hovering around 13% growth.

　　8月PMI下滑至49.2，跌破50的荣枯线，创下了9个月以来的最低点，显示经济增长的动能疲弱。各大投行纷纷下调了2012年中国经济预期增速。

August PMI down to 49.2,Below 50 vicissitude line,To set the record of the 9 months the lowest since the,Display the economic growth of the kinetic energy.Each big investment Banks have cut in 2012, the Chinese economic growth is expected.

　　“最糟糕的情况是，如果欧洲危机继续恶化，欧元区GDP增长会下滑6%、美国下滑2%、中国下滑1.5%，日本经济也会大幅度下挫。”国际货币基金组织副总裁朱民在达沃斯论坛上称。

"In the worst case,If the European crisis continues to worsen,The eurozone GDP growth will decline 6%/The United States fell 2%/China fell 1.5%,Japan's economy will also be in greatly."The international monetary fund ZhuMin vice President in davos BBS says.

　　决策层唯有将基建投资列为“稳增长”的方向，城轨交通项目成了本轮政府主导投资的发力点。张汉亚认为，加大城轨项目的投资力度，对稳定经济发展有直接作用。

Only the infrastructure investment decision-making will be listed"Steady growth"direction,City rail transit projects become epicycle government-led investment the swimmer.ZhangHanYa think,Increasing city rail project investment,For stable economic development have direct action.

　　据中国铁建(601186,股吧)下属集团公司相关人士介绍，在交通基础设施中，修建地铁的成本相对来说最高，地铁的线下工程平均每公里造价约6亿元，需要消耗大量的水泥、钢筋、石材等建筑材料，而且这还不包括钢轨和车辆的钢材消耗，所以有人说地铁工程是拉动内需的发动机，一点都不为过。

According to the China railway construction(601186,guba)Relevant personage introduces subordinate group company,In transportation infrastructure facilities,The cost of building the subway relatively highest,The subway line engineering average cost about 600 million yuan per kilometer,Need to consume large amounts of cement/reinforcement/Stone and building materials,And this is not even including the rail and the vehicle's steel consumption,So someone said subway engineering is to stimulate the domestic demand of engine,A little too much.

　　有关部门研究统计，轨道交通每投入1亿元将可以拉动2亿-2.6亿元相关产业的发展，装备制造、工程基建、钢铁、水泥等产业链的重要环节都获得丰厚的订单，还将创造施工、制造等千余个就业岗位。

Relevant departments to study statistics,Rail transit each investment 100 million yuan will be able to pull 200 million - 260 million yuan development of relevant industries,Equipment manufacturing/Engineering construction/Iron and steel/Cement industry chain is an important link to obtain the rich order,Will also create construction/More than manufacturing jobs.

　　“在当前经济环境持续低迷的时候，选择对轨道交通进行投资，一方面能够刺激消费，拉动经济，另一方面，也能够提振对下游产业的需求。”我的钢铁网宏观分析师徐建国对本报记者说。

"In the current economic environment for the downturn,Choice of the rail transit for investment,On the one hand able to stimulate consumption,Stimulate economic,On the other hand,Can also boost to the needs of the downstream industry."My steel net macroscopic analysts XuJianGuo to our reporter said.

　　值得关注的是，受到发改委集中批准项目的利好因素影响，国内钢材价格结束阴跌，迎来一波“逆袭”式的上涨。9月12日，上海地区各品种钢材普遍上涨30元－40元。徐建国告诉本报记者，“北方城市涨幅更为厉害，天津的热卷钢涨幅达到每吨300元。”

There is concern,Development and reform commission approved by centralized project bullish factors,Domestic steel prices fell over Yin,Usher in a wave of"Counter attack"Type rise.On September 12,,Shanghai steel each type generally rise RMB 30-40 yuan.XuJianGuo told our reporter,"The northern city of or more severe,Tianjin hot coil rose to $300 per ton."

　　“在钢铁业面临危机的当口，轨道交通建设的拉动作用备受关注。”据中钢协常务副秘书长李世俊介绍，根据发改委的推算，城市轨道交通建设每投资1亿元，将拉动钢材消费1万吨左右，也就是说轨交的投资也将给整个上海带来近168万吨的钢铁缺口，“全国的广义钢铁消费量将达到8500万吨。”

"In the iron and steel industry faces crisis point,In the construction of rail transit draws much attention has been paid to the role."According to the steel association executive vice secretary general LiShiJun is introduced,According to the development and reform commission (NDRC) calculation,Urban rail transit construction investment 100 million yuan each,Will pull the steel consumption 10000 tons,That is rail delivery of investment will give the whole Shanghai bring nearly 1.68 million tons of steel notch,"The national general steel consumption will reach 85 million tons."

　　融资压力大增 Financing pressure soar

　　记者查阅公告获知，已公布总投资情况的23个项目共需要投资8418.15亿元，其中地方财政负担的资本金从25%－50%不等，资本金以外的资金大约4086.29亿元主要靠银行贷款解决。

Reporters refer to learn that announcement,Published a total investment of a total of 23 projects need investment of 841.815 billion yuan RMB,The local financial burden of capital from the 25% to 50% range,Outside the capital funds about 408.629 billion yuan depend mainly on bank loans.

　　在获批的上海城轨项目报告中就可以看到，新增项目估算的资金由上海市、区两级财政资金解决；资本金以外的资金利用银行贷款解决。

In the group of Shanghai city rail project report you can see,New project estimation of money by Shanghai/The area two levels of financial capital to solve;Outside the capital fund use of bank loans.

　　上海理工大学区域规划与交通系统研究所所长助理刘巍巍表示，像上海这样已有轨道交通的城市，通过轨交运营方的积累，以及车辆拍卖等收益，可以拿出较多的钱来充当资本金。

Shanghai university of science and technology area planning and traffic system institute director assistant LiuWeiWei said,Such as Shanghai existing rail transit city,Through the rail in the accumulation of operator,And vehicle auction benefit,Can take out more money to act as capital.

　　据了解，目前申通地铁(600834,股吧)集团正在进行一些停车场土地的开发。目前上海几乎每条地铁线路都有20万平米左右的停车场，这些开发所带来的收益将有效减缓上海在轨道交通建设中的资金压力。

It is understood,At present ShenTong subway(600834,guba)Group is undergoing some parking lot land development.At present Shanghai almost each subway lines have 20 square meters around the parking lot,These development brought about by the income will effectively slow in Shanghai rail transit construction funds of the pressure.

　　但问题是，城轨建设都是由地方政府投资建设，中央政府一般不会提供资金支持，而今年以来全国财政收入增速持续放缓，地方财政收入增速出现下滑。财政部日前公布的8月财政收支数据显示，8月财政收入同比增长4.2%，低于7月8.2%的增速。

But the problem is,City rail construction are made by local government investment construction,The central government general won't provide financial support,And since this year the national fiscal revenue growth rates continued slowdown,Local fiscal revenue growth dropped.The ministry of finance announced a few days ago August financial revenue and expenditure data display,August fiscal revenue increased 4.2% year-on-year,Less than the 8.2% increase in July.

　　接近深圳政府的一位人士向本报记者透露：“深圳因为连续进行大规模的建设，如地铁一期、二期工程的建设，同时地铁二期建设时又为了大运会进行了大规模的建设，资金上并不充裕。”

Close to the shenzhen government a personage to our reporter said:"Shenzhen for the construction of the continuous on a large scale,Such as the subway a period/The construction of the second phase of the project,At the same time, the second phase of the subway construction and for the construction of the universiade on a large scale,Money is not enough."

　　一家股份制银行信贷部的人士则分析称，城市轨道交通的特点是一次投资非常大，仅凭车票收入是难以回收前期建设投入的，现在银监会对风险控制要求很严格，一般情况不会轻易碰这些项目。

A joint-stock bank credit department are the analysis says,The characteristics of urban rail transit is an investment is very large,With only ticket income is difficult to recovery in the early construction,Now the CBRC for risk control is very strict,Generally not easily touch these projects.

　　本报记者了解到，国家发改委公布的港口基建和公路建设项目也同样遇到了与城轨项目类似的融资瓶颈问题。

Our newspaper reporter to know,The national development and reform commission announced port construction and highway construction project also met and city rail project similar financing bottleneck problem.

　　好在，接下来还有更多的后续宽松政策。在温家宝总理9月11日表态“还有个万亿可适时推出”前不久，官方公布8月新增人民币贷款也超出了预期。

fortunately,Then there's the more subsequent loose policy.In the premier wen jiabao said on September 11,"There is a trillions of can timely launch"Not long ago,The official August new RMB loan also faster than expected.

　　国家信息中心经济预测部首席经济师祝宝良预测，今后一段时间，降低存款准备金率的可能性比较大。

The state information center forecast economic department chief economist ZhuBaoLiang prediction,For a long time,Reduce the deposit reserve rate the possibility of more.

　　此外本报记者还获悉，为支持符合条件的融资平台公司筹集资金，主管部门日前已经进一步放宽了新增贷款的投向范围，逐步允许有条件的平台贷款实行延期偿付或展期，融资平台公司的政策环境趋向宽松。

In addition our reporter also learned,To support eligible financing platform company to raise money,The competent department recently has been further broadened the scope of new loans to,Gradually allow conditional platform loan a moratorium or extension,Financing platform company policy environment tend to loose.

　　据一位证券公司的负责人透露，国家发改委还在考虑允许非百强县发行城投债，也就是平台债，并在考虑适时推出基础设施建设项目的私募债。

According to a securities company's person in charge said,The national development and reform commission is considering not allowed to issue among the city for debt,Is the platform debt,And in considering releasing infrastructure construction projects SiMuZhai.

　　另一方面，地方政府也在尝试投资基础设施建设的新模式。

On the other hand,The local government also trying to invest in infrastructure construction of the new model.

　　在这些普遍由政府筹资或从银行贷款的项目中，深圳地铁7号线和11号线的资金来源显得很“特别”，其在全国率先采用了BT项目模式，打造了“地铁+物业”的资金解决模式。

In these common financing by the government or from bank loan project,Shenzhen subway line no. 7 and 11 line funds appears very"special",The national take the lead in using the BT project model,made"Subway + property"Money solve mode.

　　9月11日，深圳地铁集团相关负责人对本报记者表示，除了发改委已批复的深圳7号线和11号线，还包括正在审批的9号线也都是采用BT的模式建设。深圳地铁先行先试的BT模式，即是资金由BT方先行垫资，带资金建设，建成之后深圳地铁集团分期分批再进行回购。

On September 11,,Shenzhen metro group related person in charge of our reporter said,In addition to development and reform commission has written reply to a subordinate body of shenzhen metro line 7 and 11 line,Also includes is under examination and approval of the line 9 are also use BT mode construction.Shenzhen metro first foretaste of BT mode,Is money by BT FangXianHang mat endowment,Belt capital construction,After built in shenzhen metro group by instalments repurchase again.