天津达沃斯会议。温总理的讲话给了市场一些提振。这一天，中国沪深股市在上周的大涨后连续回调，但是在收盘时，温总理的讲话传到了场内，他提到了当年的四万亿，同时提到了中央万亿财政盈余将会为稳增长提供支持，这似乎给市场一个非常坚定的支持。不过，温总理的讲话在积极中也不乏保留之处，首先，政策空间依然定义在预调微调的范围之内，表示要加大预调微调的力度，这与当年“出手要快、出拳要重、措施要准、工作要实”十六字方针不可同日而语。另外，他也强调要着力刺激消费需求和扩大有效投资，以及激活民间投资活力，这都显示出与2009年行动的不同之处。

Tianjin davos meeting.Premier wen's speech to the market some boost.This day,China's Shanghai and shenzhen stock markets rose last week after continuous callback,But in the closed,Premier wen's speech to the floor,He mentioned the four trillion,At the same time mentioned the central trillions of fiscal surplus will provide support for steady growth,This seems to give the market a very firm support.but,Premier wen jiabao's speech in positive there are reserved place,First of all,Policy space is still defined in preset adjustment range,Said to increase the preset fine-tune the strength,This and the"Make moves faster/Throw a punch to heavy/Measures to quasi/Work to real"16-character guideline cannot be mentioned in the same breath.In addition,He also stressed the need to focus on stimulating consumer demand and expand effective investment,And the mongovernment investment vitality,All this shows that with the 2009 action difference.

　　不过也有不好的消息。最新的数据显示，中央财政收入月度增幅出现显著衰退，可以看出，经济增速的放缓已经大大影响了政府的收支状况，在初步为政府的救市计划所鼓舞之后，又难免不让人忧虑，自2009年以来，民间投资的力量已经式微，政府投资的拉动作用对于宏观经济起到了主导性的作用，从这段时间来看，政府投资的可持续性是最大的疑问。

But there are bad news.The latest figures show,The central fiscal revenue monthly increase significant decline,Can see,The slowdown in economic growth has been greatly affected the receipts and expenditures of the government,In the preliminary for the government's rescue the city plan after inspired,And hard to avoid is not worrisome,Since 2009,The power of private investment has declined,The government role in boosting investment for macro economy has played a leading role,From this period of time to see,The government investment sustainability is the biggest question.

　　央行没有顺应市场的期待调降存款准备金率，而与此同时，消费者价格指数重新回到了2%之上，油价的攀升和国际粮食价格大涨是导致CPI反弹的诱发因素，这阻止了央行近期连续推出降低存款准备金率和利率水平的举措。央行的犹豫在货币供应方面产生了负面作用，8月份广义货币M2增速再次跌至13.5%，比上个月回落了0.4个点。货币投放速度的下降对于地方万亿投资的融资来说是一个不小的考验，因为地方轨道交通和公路项目主要依赖银行贷款，而地方融资平台基本上已经处于功能丧失状态，政府自身财政收入更是难堪重任。

The central bank did not conform to the market looking forward to a reduction in the deposit reserve rate,And at the same time,The consumer price index returned to the above 2%,Rising oil prices and international food prices rose in CPI rebound induced factors,This prevents the central bank recently launched continuously reduce the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates move.The central bank's hesitation in the money supply has a negative effect,In August the M2 growth dropped to 13.5% again,Last month fell 0.4 points.Hence monetary velocity down to the local trillions of investment financing is a big test,Because local rail transportation and highway project mainly depends on bank loans,And the local financing platform basically has been in a state of loss of function,The government itself fiscal revenue is embarrassed burden.

　　这的确是目前面临的一个矛盾。8月份，外贸出口方面的数据更加不令人满意，而制造业指数近期已经跌至50以下，这是促使政府近期密集审批“铁公基”项目的主要原因。

It is facing a contradiction.In August,Foreign trade export data more unsatisfactory,But recent manufacturing index has fallen to below 50,This is prompted the government to recent intensive examination and approval"Iron and base"The main reason for the project.

　　但是刺激政策不仅受制于物价指数的压力，另外一个需要考虑的因素是，经济刺激的边际收益是递减的，是否能够起到2009年那样立竿见影的效果，仍然值得认真评估。目前的主要问题是，巨大的产能和库存与市场的实际需要存在巨大反差，这一方面的矛盾甚至比2008年的情况更严重。

But stimulus policy not only subject to price index of pressure,Another factor is the need to consider,Economic stimulus of the marginal revenue is decreasing,Whether can have 2009 years that immediate effect,Still worthy of serious assessment.The main problem is,Large capacity and inventory and the actual needs of the market there is a huge contrast,This contradiction, on the one hand, even more than 2008 years of case is more severe.

　　市场也在关注美联储是否会推出与2009年和2010年类似的量化宽松政策，可以说，没有一种期待能与当下的情况相类比。与推出QE1和QE2的时候相比，目前美国金融机构流动性充裕，而失业率水平也已从最近的10.8%回到了最新的8.1%，长期国债收益率保持在十年低位，美国推出巨额资产购买计划的理由并不充分。换句话说，美国推出类似QE1和QE2那样的计划的意义并不太大，因为刺激计划边际效用正在衰减，这里，笔夫也想引用伯南克上一次央行行长会议讲话中被媒体和投资者所广泛忽略的几句话供大家认真参考一下。伯南克在讲话的倒数第三段最为重要的部分强调的是，货币政策并不能单独行动并取得更广和更平衡经济政策所能取得的效果,特别是，货币政策不能消除这个国家所面临的财政金融方面的风险。伯南克上次的全部讲话通篇只是强调劳动力市场的疲软，而这句话告诉我们，继续购买国债对于提高就业率基本上是没有什么帮助的，他们所面临的困难同样是，新的量化宽松的边际收益已经最小化。

Markets are also looking at whether the fed will be launched at 2009 and 2010 similar quantitative easing policy,Can say,No one looking forward to and present situation than similar.And launch QE1 and QE2 in,At present the United States financial institutions ample liquidity,And unemployment has risen from 10.8% of the recently returned to the latest 8.1%,Long-term bond yields low remain in ten years,The United States launched a huge asset purchase plan reason is not sufficient.In other words,The United States QE1 and launch similar QE2 that plan significance is not too big,Because stimulus plan marginal utility are attenuation,here,Pen husband also want to quote bernanke last central bank governors meeting in the speech by the media and the investors have been widely ignored a few words for all seriously consult.Bernanke speaking in the third section is the most important part is emphasized,Monetary policy and can't separate action and achieve a wider and more balanced economic policy can effect obtained,especially,Monetary policy cannot eliminate the countries face the risk of fiscal and financial aspects.Bernanke last all speech passes only emphasize the weak labor market,This sentence tell us,Continue to buy Treasury bonds to enhance the employment rate as a result is basically no help,They faced difficulties is also,A new quantitative easing the marginal revenue has minimization.

　　自从德拉吉7月底振臂一呼决心拯救欧元后，笔夫就一直强调欧元将会大幅反弹，而美元将会出现中期调整，实际上，两个多月来，美元指数从84.1点一直向下调整到80以下，12日最低跌至79.5，目前这个幅度已经足够的大。在欧元区经济面临巨大危险而且债务危机日益加重的状态下，仅靠一个人的豪言壮语和仍然停留在空谈阶段的无限量买债计划就能使欧元出现如此大幅度的反弹，这本身就已经是一个奇迹，目前来看很难期待市场能有更大的作为。周三，德国宪法法院批准了欧元区的ESM计划，但是德国对自身义务设置了限额，德国人在这一项目中总共只愿意承担1900亿欧元的义务。这是他们的止损位。

Since Della achish the end of July ZhenBeiYiHu determined to save after euro,Pen husband has been emphasized the euro will rebound sharply,And the dollars will appear in the middle of the adjustment,In fact,More than two months,The dollar index from 84.1 points have been downward adjustment to below 80,12 lowest fell to 79.5,The amplitude is enough big.In the euro zone economy is facing huge risk and debt crisis increasingly aggravation condition,Only on a person's grandiloquence and still stay in talk phase of an unlimited buy debt plan can make the euro appear so drastically rebound,It is in itself a miracle,At present it is difficult to expect the market to have greater as.On Wednesday,Germany's constitutional court approved the eurozone ESM plan,But Germany on their own obligations set the limit,German in this project a total of only are willing to bear the obligation of 190 billion euros.This is their stop loss order.

　　在以上的综合因素影响下，美元显然在本周加速了下跌的进程，尤其是穆迪公司周二晚上再次发表对美国AAA主权债务评级不利的言论后，美元更是找到了下跌的理由。

In the above comprehensive factors influence,Dollar is clearly in this week accelerated the falling process,Especially moody's again on Tuesday night in the United States published AAA sovereign debt rating after negative comments,Dollars is found falling reason.

　　但是，美元下跌正非常接近笔夫所能预测到的限度，除了欧央行近期的努力外，导致美元下调的主要因素还包括全球投资者对于新一轮量化宽松政策的预期，这个谜底在本周五就要揭晓了，目前华尔街的交易者们对于新一轮刺激政策的预期程度空前高涨，这会是一张到期即可提取的现金支票吗？未必！

but,The decline of the dollar is very close to the pen husband can predict the limit,In addition to the ECB recent hard work,The main factors to cause the dollar to cut include global investors for a new round of quantitative easing policy expected,The answer will be announced on Friday,Now Wall Street traders for a new round of stimulus policy expected degree to an all-time high,It is a matured can extract cash cheque?May not!

　　事实上，周五极有可能成为一个新的节点。全球投资者极有可能仍然收到的是一张空头支票，或者当你拿着支票去银行取现的时候，银行柜员会告诉你，已经过期了，这个故事时间太久。

In fact,Friday is likely to become a new node.Global investors is likely still received is a blank check,Or when you take cheques went to the bank to important time,The bank teller will tell you,Has expired,This story time is too long.

　　伯南克基于稳定预期的考虑可能会出台一些中性的措施，但是很难出现真正像前两轮那样的大规模的国债购买计划。目前MBS价格呈上升趋势，对于入市干预的需求也并不多，所以，美联储极有可能明确QE3的可能性和确定性，但设置更高的触发条件。总之，美联储议息会议结束后，美元结束调整的可能性更大一些。

Bernanke based on stable expected consider might release some neutral measures,But it is difficult to really appeared like the first two wheel that the scale of the national debt purchase plan.Current MBS price shows ascendant trend,For the demand of the market intervention is not much,so,The federal reserve is likely QE3 clear the possibility and certainty,But set higher trigger condition.In a word,The fed discussion interest after the meeting,Dollars more likely to adjust the end some.