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年内挫跌62%:BDI创4年新低--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-09-15

  9月13日,波罗的海贸易海运交易所干散货运价指数BDI指数再创2008年金融危机以来的新低,跌至661点。

On September 13,The Baltic trade shipping exchange dry bulk freight index BDI index hit 2008 years since the financial crisis low,Fall to 661 points.

  作为追踪铁矿石、水泥、谷物、煤炭和化肥等大宗商品的货运成本,该指数今年已累计挫跌约62%。

As a tracking iron ore/cement/grain/Coal and chemical fertilizers and other commodities freight cost,The index this year already accumulated tumbled down about 62%.

  中远集团内部人士坦言,如此点位,意味着今年扭亏已然无望。若无相应操作,中远的亏损恐怕要加剧,“A股股票被ST亦难避免。”

Cosco group insiders said,So point,Means putting this year already hopelessness.If no corresponding operation,Cosco losses: I'm afraid it will aggravate,"A shares is ST also difficult to avoid."

  一位不愿透露姓名的航运分析师指出,之所以BDI指数再创新低,是因为这几个月供需关系没有改善,反而恶化。

One does not wish to disclose the name of the shipping analysts pointed out,The BDI index hit a new low,Because of this a few months supply and demand does not improve,worse.

  美国干旱导致的粮食出口放缓以及钢厂焦煤需求疲软继续打压巴拿马型船运价,运力严重过剩使得BPI指数再度大幅跳水,创2009年2月以来新低。9月13日,波罗的海巴拿马型船舶运价指数BPI下跌21点,至545点,今年至今已下跌约67%。

The us drought in food export slowdown and steel coking coal demand weak continue to crack down on the panama ship freight,Serious excess capacity makes BPI index plunge again,And a new low since February 2009.On September 13,The Baltic panama type ship freight index BPI down 21 points,To 545 points,So far this year has fallen about 67%.

  另一个重要船型波罗的海好望角型船运价指数BCI,9月13日跌1点,报1186点。好望角船主要运载铁矿石等,据最新统计数据,我国8月铁矿石进口较上月增长7.9%,至6245万吨的三个月高位,买家转向国际市场,因铁矿石价格暴跌迫使国内生产商减产。

Another important form the Baltic cape ship freight index BCI,On September 13 fell 1 point,Quote 1186 points.Cape ship main carrier iron ore, etc,According to the latest statistics data,Our country is August iron ore imports rose 7.9% last month,To 62.45 million tons of three month high,The buyer to international market,Because of the iron ore price slump forced cut domestic producers.

  本报记者了解到,上述两种船型皆为中国远洋(601919,股吧)干散货船队的主力船型,该公司财报显示,中远干散货船队拥有121艘巴拿马船型,其中72艘自有船,49艘租入船,合计载重吨892.8万吨。好望角船型共有89艘,其中43艘自有船,46艘租入船,合计1684万载重吨。

Our newspaper reporter to know,The above two kinds of ship form is for China ocean(601919,guba)Dry bulk fleet's main form,The company earnings display,Cosco dry bulk fleet has 121 ship panama type,72 of them has its own boat ship,49 ship rent into the ship,Total deadweight tonnage of 8.928 million tons.Cape form a total of 89 ships,43 ship own ship,46 ship rent into the ship,Total 16.84 million ton.

  财报同时指出,中远干散货业绩在今年上半年亏损32亿之多。

Earnings also pointed out,Cosco dry bulk performance loss in the first half of the year 3.2 billion.

  值得注意的是,针对船舶的租金中远未曾披露,此前有报道称五年期的日租金为5.7万美元。但9月13日,BPI四条航次期租航线日租金平均值为4187美元,BCI四条航次期租航线日租金平均值为3592美元,远比第三方机构预测的数值更低。

It is important to note that,According to the ship's rent cosco have not disclosure,Earlier reports said that five-year day rent for 57000 dollars.But on September 13,BPI four voyage time charter route, the average rent for 4187 dollars,BCI four voyage time charter route, the average rent for 3592 dollars,Far more than a third party institution forecasting value lower.

  而除此以外,今年下半年干散货市场还将交付干散货新船546艘,合计新增运力4568.8万载重吨,这一规模则相当于市场将新增一家中远干散货集团和一家中海干散货集团,其所带来的市场冲击也显而易见。

And besides,The second half of this year dry bulk market will also delivery dry bulk new ship 546 boats,The total capacity of 45.688 million ton,This scale is equivalent to market will add a cosco dry bulk group and a China dry bulk group,Its brings the market impact is also apparent.

  “这样的点位扭亏已然无望。”中远集团内部人士向记者坦言。

"This point already putting hopeless."Cosco group, insiders said to reporters.

  而机构分析师则在揣摩今年的亏损额是否会超过去年104.59亿元。花旗银行认为全年亏损可能会达78.8亿之多。中金公司则认为亏损约会在73亿左右。

But analysts are trying to figure out this year's deficit will exceed 10.459 billion yuan last year.Citibank think annual loss may be more than 7.88 billion.Cicc argues that loss dating at around 7.3 billion.

  可是,资本市场似乎高估了集装箱市场的表现。据9月6日发布的世界集装箱运价指数(WCI)显示,上海至鹿特丹航线运价为2578美元/FEU,比8月30日大跌了350美元/FEU,跌幅为11.95%。上海至热那亚航线运价为2663美元/FEU,环比跌幅为6.5%。

but,Capital market seems to overestimate the container market performance.On September 6, according to the release of the world container freight index(WCI)display,Shanghai to Rotterdam route rate for 2578 dollars/FEU,On August 30, than were $350 / FEU,Down 11.95%.Shanghai to Genoa route rate for 2663 dollars/FEU,Link down 6.5%.

  中银国际分析师杜建平表示,欧线运价连跌6周,逼近盈亏平衡点附近。目前的需求及舱位利用率仍难以支撑班轮公司9月中旬的提价计划。

Bank of China international analyst DuJianPing said,The line rate even fell 6 weeks,Approximation near break-even point.The current demand and space utilization rate is still difficult to support liner companies mid-september the price of the plan.

  有意思的是,在市场前景黯然的状况下,这几天多只航运股上扬,市场传言国家有意给航运市场注资救市。作为这一解释的注脚,9月11日,中海集运(601866,股吧)控股股东中国海运集团增持了中海集运4988.9万股H股,占总股本0.43%。

Interesting is,In the market under the condition of dim prospects,These days more than one shipping shares rise,Market rumors countries to shipping market capital injection to save the city.As a footnote explained,On September 11,,"CSCL"(601866,guba)The controlling shareholder China shipping (group) company, increasing the "CSCL" 49.889 million shares H shares,About of the total share capital of 0.43%.

  中海集运董秘叶宇芒表示,集团有计划在未来12个月内继续增持公司H股股份,累计增持比例不超过本公司已发行总股份的2%。但他否认集团增持的资金来自国资委的注资或相应的财政补贴。

"CSCL" dong secret YeYu mans said,Group planned over the next 12 months to continue increasing the company H shares,Accumulated increasing proportion is not more than the company issued shares 2% of the total.But he denied that group said the sasac of the money comes from the capital injection or corresponding financial subsidies.

  而中远集团始终还没有相应的救市措施。中远集团内部人士向记者表示,国家政策的救市措施,短期内能见效的很少,而集团层面可操作的空间还有很多,比如市场期待已久的邮轮业务的注入,集团旗下还有两大造船集团资产未放入上市公司,除此以外,中远香港集团尚有不少金融资产可供活动。

Cosco group and still has no corresponding measures to save the city.Cosco group insiders told reporters,National policy measures to save the city,Short-term internal energy act less,The group level and the operational space there are many,Such as market long-awaited cruise business injection,The group has two big shipbuilding group assets not into the listed companies,In addition,Cosco Hong Kong group there are a lot of financial assets available for activities.

  9月13日,参与草拟航运救市方案的交通部水运科学研究院副院长贾大山接受记者采访时对上述传言予以否认,称至今国务院对方案仍无指示,亦未有下拨救市资金一事。

On September 13,Participate in drafting shipping save city transportation scheme of water transportation science research institute, vice President of the JiaDaShan when accepting a reporter to interview on the above rumors denies,So far the state council said the plan is still no order,Also not those who save city about money.



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