中国证券报·中证网新华网

China's stock certificate report showed · nets xinhua net

　　联合报道小组

Joint report group

　　银河证券首席策略分析师孙建波接受专访时表示，传统的经济增长模式遇到瓶颈，经济转型不能急在一时；投资应充分发挥市场机制的作用，金融制度需要积极探索“支持创新和转型”。

Galaxy securities chief strategy analyst SunJianBo accept interview said,The traditional economic growth mode meet bottleneck,Economic transformation can't urgent in the;Investment should give full play to the function of the market mechanism,The financial system needs the positive exploration"Support the innovation and transformation".

　

　经济转型不会一蹴而就 Economic transformation will not be accomplished overnight

　　联合报道小组：当前宏观经济“难”在何处？中国经济增速放缓的原因是什么？

Joint report group:The current macroeconomic"difficult"where?China's economic growth is slowing of what be the reason?

　　孙建波：宏观经济的“难”，体现在传统发展模式遇到瓶颈之后的稳增长之难和转型之难。

SunJianBo:macroeconomic"difficult",Reflected in the traditional development model of bottleneck met after the stability of growth and transformation to the difficult.

　　毫无疑问，驱动中国经济高速增长的基础设施建设、房地产建设、加工制造业出口等都已经遇到了瓶颈，这就意味着依赖传统模式的经济增速必然放缓，此时，要稳定增长必然是难的。

There is no doubt that,Drive China's high-speed economic growth of infrastructure construction/Real estate construction/Processing manufacturing exports have encountered bottleneck,This means that rely on the traditional model of economic growth will slow,At this time,To steady growth is necessarily difficult.

　　当传统的经济增长模式遇到瓶颈时，经济转型主要依赖两个方面：一是制造业技术的升级转型，这是基础；二是各类消费品的品质化品牌化，这是内需升级的关键。然而，制造业技术的转型需要技术和工艺的长期积淀，消费品的品牌化更需要长期积淀，都不是一蹴而就的。这就是转型之难。

When the traditional economic growth mode when encountered bottleneck,Economic transformation mainly depends on two aspects:One is the manufacturing technology upgrade transformation,This is the foundation;The second is all kinds of consumer goods quality change the brand,This is the key to upgrading of domestic demand.however,The transformation of manufacturing technology to technology and process of the long-term accumulation,Consumer goods brand need more long-term accumulation,All is not achieved overnight.This is the difficult transformation.

　　联合报道小组：经济能很快走出“难”的阶段吗？

Joint report group:Economic can quickly out of"difficult"Stage??

　　孙建波：中国过去30年发展的成就举世瞩目，增长质量的提高和内需的提升是一个长期缓慢的过程，不能急在一时。我们要从大历史的维度来审视转型的长期性。

SunJianBo:China over the past 30 years development achievement has drawn the attention of the world,The improvement of the quality of growth and the ascension of the domestic demand is a long-term slow process,Can't urgent in the.We must from the big historical dimension to look at the long-term nature of the transformation.

　　联合报道小组：为了应对经济下行的压力，中央提出“要把稳增长放到更加突出的位置”。这一说法区别于之前的“保增长”，你认为“稳”字应该如何体现？

Joint report group:In order to deal with economic downward pressure,The central proposed"To be firm growth on a more prominent place".This one is different from before"The growth",Do you think"stability"Word should be how to reflect?

　　孙建波：“稳”字体现了中央对“就业”和“社会稳定”的重视。传统经济模式在走下坡路，但基础加工制造业和建筑业吸纳了庞大的低端就业群体，他们的就业稳定是政策的必然选项。

SunJianBo:"stability"Words reflects the central to"employment"and"Social stability"attention.The traditional economic mode on the decline,But the basic processing manufacturing and construction absorbs a large low employment group,Their employment policy stability is the inevitable option.

　　联合报道小组：怎样看待当下的保就业政策？未来还会出台什么政策来“稳增长”？

Joint report group:How to look at present the employment policy?The future will be issued what policy"Steady growth"?

　　孙建波：依赖刺激传统经济来保就业是不合时宜的。旧产业泡沫的破灭为新兴产业的发展提供了丰富的高素质劳动力资源。当旧的产业规模严重过剩时，往往意味着其训练和雇佣的劳动者数量超越了合理规模。当泡沫破灭，产业规模萎缩时，将释放成熟的劳动者。此时，新兴产业的发展能够得到丰富的高素质劳动者的支持。如果没有产业泡沫，高素质劳动者在旧行业能够获得丰厚回报，新科技和新产业发展就很难获得丰富的高素质劳动力资源。

SunJianBo:Rely on traditional economic stimulus to the employment is timeless.The old industry bust for emerging industrial the development to provide the rich high quality manpower resources.When the old industry scale serious when excess,Often means that the training and employment of laborer quantity beyond the reasonable scale.When the bubble burst,Industry scale when atrophy,Will release the laborer of mature.At this time,The development of new industry can get rich high-quality workers support.If there is no industry foam,High-quality workers in the old industry can get good returns,New technology and new industrial development will be very difficult to obtain the rich high quality manpower resources.

　　有关部门要做的，是建立起完善的社会保障机制，从容迎接和应对传统产业下行所引发的就业难题。我觉得，扶持传统产业，实际上是阻碍了劳动力向新兴产业流动。如果能够对传统产业的失业群体实施救助，而不是把他们捆绑在老的产业里，这部分群体将成为经济转型的积极力量。

The relevant departments to do,Is to establish the perfect social security system,Easy to meet and deal with the traditional industry down which caused by the employment problem.I think,Support traditional industries,Is actually hampering the labor to emerging industry flow.If the traditional industry to the unemployed community relief,It has not served to bring them bound in the old industry,This part of the group will be the economic transformation of the positive forces.

　

　“三驾马车”需发力 "troika"Need to send force

　　联合报道小组: 刚刚公布的8月各项经济数据不容乐观，中央高层也曾多次提出要实现经济由政策刺激向内生自主增长的转变，尤其强调扩大内需的重要性。在当前环境下，你认为驱动中国经济的“三驾马车”该如何发力？

Joint report group: just released August the economic data is not optimistic,The central high-level also has repeatedly put forward to realize the economy by policy stimulus to the change of endogenous independent growth,Especially emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand.In the current environment,Do you think that drive the economy of China"troika"How to send force?

　　孙建波：传统意义上的“三驾马车”是指出口、投资和消费。很显然，现在中低端产品的出口已经很难增长，粗放式的国内投资又遇到瓶颈，国内消费也遇到收入分配约束。

SunJianBo:In the traditional sense"troika"Is pointed out that the mouth/Investment and consumption.obviously,Now ZhongDiDuan product export has been difficult to growth,Extensive domestic investment and meet the bottleneck,Domestic consumption also meet income distribution constraint.

　　详细看这“三驾马车”，出口需要靠产品的升级来获得更大的国际价值分配；投资应重点解决社会发展的瓶颈，为现代城市生活方式提供有质量的基础设施和公共配套；消费要依靠进一步改革国内收入分配和社会保障机制，让老百姓有能力消费，有信心消费。

A detailed look at the"troika",Export to need to rely on upgrade products to gain greater international value distribution;Investment should focus on solving the bottleneck of the social development,For modern urban lifestyle offer quality infrastructure and public supporting;Consumption depends on further the reform of domestic income distribution and social security mechanism,Let people have the ability to consumption,Have the confidence consumption.

　　联合报道小组：谈到投资，近期从贵州到长沙，再到上海，地方政府一系列扩内需、稳增长政策频出，有的地方投资计划甚至达到了万亿元规模。怎么看待这一现象？

Joint report group:When it comes to investment,Recent from guizhou to changsha,And then to Shanghai,The local government a series of expanding domestic demand/Steady growth PinChu policy,Some local investment plan even achieved one trillion yuan scale.How look upon this phenomenon?

　　孙建波：地方的投资冲动一定程度上充分体现了各地区的“城市建设”仍然滞后，体现了过去出口导向发展模式下城镇化滞后于工业化的现实。

SunJianBo:Local investment impulse to a certain extent, fully embodies the parts of the world"Urban construction"Still lag,Reflected in the past export-oriented development mode urbanization lags behind the reality of the industrialization.

　　我认为，这些投资项目的社会拉动效应显得有些不足，一来是因为目前经济仍然处于产能过剩的基本状态，二来当前经济前景更加扑朔迷离。

I think,These investment projects social pull effect appears some shortage,Way because the economy is still in the basic state of excess capacity,Secondly the current economic outlook more complicated and confusing.

　　联合报道小组：在这种情况下如果实行“地方版四万亿”刺激计划，会带来怎样影响？

Joint report group:In this case if practice"Local edition four trillion"Stimulus plan,How will bring influence?

　　孙建波：“地方版四万亿”如果投资领域不合理，项目实施不透明，可能会进一步加大分配不公。

SunJianBo:"Local edition four trillion"If the area of investment is not reasonable,Project implementation opaque,May further increase the unfair distribution.

　　城市建设有别于过去的全国交通大动脉建设，地方经济投资和建设更需要尊重民意，因地制宜，慎重论证。推动转型的投资更不是靠行政扶持能解决的，应充分发挥市场机制的作用，让市场来选择。

Urban construction is different from the past the national traffic aorta construction,Local economic investment and construction need more respect for public opinion,Adjust measures to local conditions,Careful argument.Promote the transformation of the investment more not by administrative support can solve,We should give full play to the function of the market mechanism,Let the market to choose.

　

　尽快完善房地产税制 Improving the real estate tax system as soon as possible

　　联合报道小组：楼市“坚持调控不动摇”，但一些地方还在不断地试探“政策微调”的底线。你认为楼市未来将走向何方？

Joint report group:Property market"Adhere to the regulation not be moved",But some places are in constant test"Policy fine-tuning"Bottom line.Do you think the property market will be the future direction?

　　孙建波：从经济学理论来看，产业泡沫意味着产量的上升和极大丰富，这也正是社会发展的基本目标。拿房地产业来说，住房分配货币化改革以来的价格泡沫，推动了产量的快速增长。当前，我国的住宅产业已经处于边际产能大于边际需求的敏感阶段。

SunJianBo:From the economics theory to see,Industry foam means output rise and enriched,This is the fundamental objective of the social development.Take for the real estate industry,The housing assignmentcurrency since the reform price bubble,Promoted the rapid growth of production.The current,Chinese housing industry has been in a marginal capacity exceeds the marginal demand sensitive stage.

　　当社会潜在总需求得到满足之后，建筑业泡沫必然破灭。2011年，中国完成房屋竣工建筑面积29.2亿平方米，其中住宅竣工建筑面积18.3亿平方米，分别为总人口的2.17倍和1.36倍，这样的建设进度是不可持续的。尽管城市基础设施的质量仍待提高，但其速度不能和快速的外延式扩张相比拟。

When social potential total demand after satisfied,Construction bubble will burst.In 2011,,China finished building complete a building area of 2.92 billion square meters,The completion of the housing construction area of 1.83 billion square meters,For the population, respectively 2.17 times and 1.36 times,Such construction progress is unsustainable.Although the quality of urban infrastructure is still to improve,But the speed can not be and rapid extension type expansion fitting compared.

　　联合报道小组：未来还可能出台哪些调控措施？

Joint report group:The future may also come what regulation and control measures?

　　孙建波：楼市调控当务之急是尽快完善房地产税制，在既有的契税、交易所得税的基础上，尽快出台全面的房产税方案，对过多占有住房资源者予以征税。

SunJianBo:The property market regulation and control the urgent task is to perfect the real estate tax system as soon as possible,In the existing deed tax/On the basis of trade income tax,Come as soon as possible the comprehensive housing property tax scheme,Too much to possession of the housing resources shall levy.

　　房地产税制设计应尊重两个基本原则：一是生存权，应严格区分基本生存需要的房产和生存需要之外的房产；二是发展权，房地产增值有区域发展的因素，法律角度应界定发展权的归属和税负。综合来看，交易环节所得税和房产税（物业税）不能混为一谈，更不能因保护少数人的利益而影响税制设计，那样最终会适得其反。

Real estate tax system design should respect the two basic principles:One is the right to live,Should strictly distinguish between the basic survival needs of the property and survival needs of outside housing;The second is development,The real estate value have regional development of factors,Legal Angle should define the ownership of the development and tax burden.Comprehensive to see,Transaction link income tax and property tax(Property tax)Cannot confuse STH with STH else,Because of more can't protect minority interests and influence tax system design,That will eventually backfire.

　　

鼓励非银行金融机构发展 To encourage the development of non-bank financial institutions

　　联合报道小组：当前经济存在一对矛盾：融资难和投资难。一方面大量的中小企业和项目缺乏资金支持，另一方面银行的贷款出现“贷不出去”，在解决企业融资难方面你有什么好的办法？金融体系改革方面需要做怎样调整来助力？

Joint report group:The current economy exist a pair of contradiction:Difficulty in financing and investment difficult.On the one hand a lot of small and medium-sized enterprises and the lack of financial support,On the other hand the loan to the bank appear"Credit not go out",In resolving the enterprise financing difficulties you have what good method?Financial system reform need to do how to adjust to power?

　　孙建波：融资难是因为项目的前景不被资方看好，投资难则是因为没有好的经济机会，两者的根本原因是一致的，都是经济前景低迷的体现，其症结在于经济缺乏新的活力，而不是金融制度。

SunJianBo:Financing difficult because of the prospect of the project will not be the management value,Investment is difficult because no good economic opportunity,The fundamental reason for this is consistent,The economic outlook is the embodiment of the downturn,The lack of new vitality lies in the economy,Instead of the financial system.

　　在这个经济低迷的时刻，金融制度需要积极探索“支持创新和转型”的改变，这显然不能依赖传统的银行，而要积极鼓励各类非银行金融机构的发展，对其支持转型的各类金融创新进行风险评估，在没有重大社会风险的前提下支持一切可行的金融创新。

In this economic downturn moment,The financial system needs the positive exploration"Support the innovation and transformation"change,This obviously cannot rely on the traditional bank,But to actively encourage the development of all kinds of non-bank financial institutions,The transformation of the support of all kinds of financial innovation in risk assessment,When there is no significant risk society under the premise of support all feasible financial innovation.

　

　股市反映经济转型方向 Stock markets reflected the direction of economic transformation

　　联合报道小组：股市是经济的晴雨表，为何美股、A股的反应区别这么大？如何看？

Joint report group:The stock market is a barometer of economic,Why the us stock/A shares of the reaction difference so big?How to see?

　　孙建波：股市是经济的晴雨表，中国的股市也一样。不是A股不能反映经济，而是A股的市值结构与经济不匹配。如果分行业分解开来看，A股仍然是经济的晴雨表。

SunJianBo:The stock market is a barometer of economic,The Chinese stock market too.Not A share cannot reflect the economic,But the market value of the A shares structure and economy is not matching.If the branch line of breaking down to see,A shares is still A barometer of economic.

　　过去5年，以银行、房地产、煤炭、钢铁、建材、交通运输等为代表的传统行业江河日下，这体现了中国老的发展模式难以为继；而以医药、食品饮料、技术制造为代表的各类公司则走出了截然相反的行情，这些恰恰反映了中国的转型方向。

Over the past five years,The bank/Real estate/coal/Iron and steel/Building materials/The traffic transportation as a representative of traditional industry go from bad to worse,This reflects the Chinese old development model unsustainable;And medicine/Food and beverage/Technology manufacturing as a representative of all kinds of company is out of the different market,These precisely reflects China's transformation direction.