当众望所归的美国新一轮量化宽松政策尘埃落定之后，全球对冲基金已经暗度陈仓，风险资产退出潮悄无声息地进行着。如果说，一些习惯性的思维仍然使得许多人执迷不悟，那么，现在已经是时候了，摆脱媒体和一些不负责任的分析家的煽风点火，近期，是全面退出风险市场的最后机会。

When the incumbent the United States a new round of quantitative easing policy after the dust settled,Global hedge funds have AnDuChenCang,Risk assets exit tide quietly on.if,Some habitual thinking still makes many people bigotry,so,Now is the time,Get rid of the media and some irresponsible analysts stir up trouble,recent,Is the comprehensive risk from the final chance to market.

　供需拐点来临 Supply and demand inflection point coming

　　投行暗度陈仓 Investment Banks AnDuChenCang

　　自从QE3推出之后，全球金融市场逆势而行，美元未如预期般继续下跌，相反在对非美货币的表现上更加强势。美国股市高位滞涨，虽然美国经济数据不断报出利好，不仅非农就业数据大为改善，失业率3年来首次跌至8%以下，近期公布的零售数据增长强劲，楼市进一步回暖，但是道琼斯指数10月份跌幅已超过2.5%；国际资源品市场利多兑现，资本撤离的迹象更是明显，自那以后，国际原油期货价格已连跌两月，跌幅超过12%。LME铜价本月跌幅已达5%。即使是农产品市场也从供求紧张的形势中脱身，芝加哥商品交易所大豆合约价格两月跌幅最多时达15%。显而易见，价格下跌的背后，是资金的大举撤离，根据CFTC每周所公布的持仓数量，基金在原油期货期权上头寸减少了20%以上。

Since QE3 after launch,Global financial markets and do contrarian,Dollars not as expected, continue to fall,Contrary to the beauty in the performance of the currency more strong.The us stock market high stagflation,Although the U.S. economic data constantly quoted bullish,Not only greatly improve the non-farm employment data,The unemployment rate for the first time in three years dropped to below 8%,Recent data released by the strong growth in retail,The property market further milder,But the dow Jones index fell more than 2.5% in October;International resources product market more than the cash,Signs of capital withdrawal is more obvious,Since then,The international crude oil futures prices have shut down for two months,Fell more than 12%.LME copper prices fell this month has reached 5%.Even agricultural products market is from the tight supply situation out,The Chicago mercantile exchange soybean contract price two months of the padt drop 15%.obviously,Prices fell back,Money is the massive evacuation,According to the CFTC weekly published by the number of position,Fund in crude oil futures and options on the position to reduce more than 20%.

　　无独有偶，全球大宗商品的供需周期正面临着一个重要时刻的重要拐点。最近五年以来，全球投入到资源品生产供应的资金达到登峰造极的地步，这些投入已经或者即将进入产出高峰。铁矿石价格的大跌就是由于产出数量大增的结果。即使是一直被认为供应紧张的铜矿和原油，随着供应的大幅增加，已经进入了供给过剩的时代。今年第四季度，全球原油供应将会超过需求约60多万桶，随着美国即将成为全球最大的原油产出国，其日产出达到1万桶，2012年产量将会增加10%，再加上其非常规天然气的大幅增加，给世界能源供应形势带来历史性的变化。2013年，还会迎来铜矿供应的高潮。随着大矿山的陆续投产，铜矿供应将会过剩达45万吨，这是十年来从来没有过的景象。

similarly,Global commodity supply and demand cycle are faced with an important moment of important inflection point.The last five years,Global into resources product production supply funds attain the highest possible perfection in it,These investment have been or are about to enter the peak output.Iron ore prices drop is due to the result of a number of output.Even if has always been considered supplies of copper and crude oil,With the increase of the supply,Has entered the era of excess supply.The fourth quarter of the year,Global oil supply will more than demand about 60 more than barrels,As the U.S. will become the world's largest crude oil output countries,The nissan out to 10000 barrels,2012 annual output will be increased by 10%,Plus the unconventional natural gas greatly increased,To the world energy supply situation brought historic change.In 2013,,Also will usher in the climax of the copper supply.Along with the big mine production in succession,Copper mine supply will be excess amounts to 450000 tons,This is ten years there has never been a scene.

　　沃尔克法则完成去杠杆化 Volcker law complete de-leveraging

　　风险产品前景暗淡 Risk product outlook

　　沃尔克法则的实施是银行业撤离风险交易市场的最根本背景。2010年1月21日，美国总统奥巴马宣布将对美国银行业做重大改革，前美联储主席保罗·沃尔克的建议得到采纳,因此其方案被称为“沃尔克法则”(Volcker Rule)。这个法案的严厉程度仅有1933年的《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》可以类比，在美国经济大萧条后，此法案将投资银行业务和商业银行业务严格划分开,这个法案对打击金融市场的投机行为起了极为重要的作用。具有讽刺意味的是，1999年这个法案被废止，其后却是新一轮大宗商品暴涨的开始，极有可能的是，替代这个法案的沃尔克法则将终止这个暴涨的十年。

The implementation of the law of the volcker panel is banking evacuation risk trading market of the most fundamental background.On January 21, 2010,President Obama announced that the United States banking to make major changes,Former federal reserve chairman Paul volcker suggestion was accepted,So the plan is called"Volcker law"(Volcker Rule).The bill severe degree of only 1933 years[Glass-steagall]Can analog,In the American economy after the great depression,The bill will be investment banking and commercial banking strictly divided open,The bill to crack down on financial market speculation played an extremely important role.Ironically,In 1999 the bill was abolished,Behind it is the beginning of a new round of commodities boom,Very likely,Replace the bill law of volcker will terminate this jump ten years.

　　沃尔克法则对风险市场的影响将通过两条最基本的原则来体现，一是限制银行利用自身资本进行自营交易。二是禁止银行拥有或资助对私募基金和对冲基金的投资,让银行在传统借贷业务与高杠杆、对冲、私募等高风险投资活动之间划出明确界线。今后将不再允许商业银行拥有或发起对冲基金,也不能拥有私募股权投资基金，不能从事与自己利润有关而与服务客户无关的自营交易业务。对私募股权基金和对冲基金的投资比例限定为一级核心资本的3%。

Volcker rule to the risk influence it has on the market will be through the two most basic principle to reflect,One is to limit bank USES its capital for proprietary trading.The second is to ban bank owns or aid to private equity funds and hedge fund investment,Let the bank in the traditional lending business and high lever/hedge/Private and high risk investment activity a clear line between.The future will no longer allow commercial Banks have launched or hedge funds,Also can't have private equity investment fund,Cannot be engaged in relevant with their profit and service to the customers and independent of proprietary trading business.For private equity funds and hedge fund proportion of the investment limited to 3% of the primary core capital.

　　标普周一发布公告称，如果监管者对限制自营交易采取严格立场的话，沃尔克法则对银行利润的影响将比此前的估计不止翻倍。据标普估计，沃尔克法则会导致美国8家最大的银行每年利润总共减少100亿美元，而不是两年前最初预期的40亿美元。标普在报告中表示，高盛和摩根士丹利将会蒙受更大程度的损失，因为与其它银行相比，它们来自自营交易的收入占比更大。

S&p said Monday by way of a public announcement,If regulators to limit their proprietary trading to adopt strict stand,Volcker rule to the influence of the bank profits than previously estimated more than doubled.According to s&p estimate,Volcker rule can lead to the United States 8's biggest bank, a total of $10 billion a year to reduce profits,Rather than originally expected two years ago of $4 billion.The s&p at the report says,Goldman sachs and Morgan Stanley will suffer a greater degree of loss,Compared with other bank because,They come from proprietary trading income accounts for more than.

　　那些善变的国际大投行虽然借着QE3疯狂预测大宗商品和黄金的多头趋势，但实际上，他们已经从这一领域大幅撤离，裁员、出售、剥离，这一切反映出这个市场已经不再那么吸引他们，与过去十年的黄金时代相比，未来几年大宗商品交易将会黯然失色。

The capricious international big investment Banks although by QE3 crazy prediction commodities and golden bull trend,But in fact,They have from this field greatly evacuation,layoffs/sell/stripping,All these reflect the market is no longer so attract them,And over the past ten years than the golden age,The next few years commodities trading will eclipse.

　　高盛讨论剥离其大宗商品交易部门已经有多年，但是近期好像真正进入了实质阶段。而大摩近期也正准备将其一部分大宗商品交易部门出售给卡塔尔主权财富基金，从1999年到2000年，大摩的商品交易部门为这家投行贡献了约20%的利润来源。但是近两年来，投行的交易利润明显下滑，今年上半年，全球最大的10家大投行在大宗商品市场净赚35亿美元，但这一数据比去年同期低了20%，比行情最好的2009年低了约56%。除行情本身外，监管加强、资本成本上升是其交易利润下降的主要原因。

Goldman sachs discuss stripping the commodity trading department has had many years,But recent like real entered the stage of essence.And the large recent is also ready to one part of the commodity trading department sold to Qatar sovereign wealth fund,From 1999 to 2000,The big commodity trading department for the investment Banks contributed about 20% of the profit source.But in the past two years,Investment Banks trading profits decline significantly,In the first half of this year,The world's largest 10 big investment Banks in the commodity market net $3.5 billion,But the data was 20% lower than the same period last year,Than market the best 2009 lower about 56%.In addition to market itself,Strengthen supervision/The rise in the cost of capital is the main causes of the decreasing trading profits.

　　投行为从大宗商品部门的战略性撤退作的准备是全面的，近三年以来，虽然投行的整体雇员增加了1%，但是在大宗商品交易部门的人数却锐减6%。

Throw behavior from commodity department's strategic retreat is to be comprehensive,Nearly three years,Although the overall employees investment Banks increased by 1%,But in commodity trading department but the number of cut by 6%.

　　风险资产的等比例贬值 Proportion of risk assets devaluation

　　如果沃尔克法则最终得到全面实施的话，可能将历史性地改变全球金融市场的运行格局。沃尔克法则就是企图大幅降低金融市场的杠杆化比例，它将导致的结局是，由于大银行资金的缺位，风险资产尤其是衍生品市场的头寸将会减少，这将在总体上减少资本市场的投机气氛。因为，没有大投行的推动，投机的力量将会大幅萎缩。衍生品规模的减少，也会减少市场上广义货币量的数量，虽然美联储实施宽松政策，但市场上对于资金的需求却在减少，由于资金的撤离，市场上各种风险资产将会等比例减值，这又会反过来决定金融市场上流动性的状况，显然，未来的金融版图已经实质性地被改变了。

If the volcker panel law finally to obtain the full implementation of words,May historic changes to the global financial market operation pattern.Volcker rule is trying to reduce financial market leveraged proportion,It will lead to end is,Due to the absence of the big bank funds,Risk assets especially derivatives market position will reduce,This will in general to reduce capital market speculative atmosphere.because,No big investment Banks push,Speculative forces will greatly atrophy.Derivatives scale reduction,Also can reduce the number of broad money supply on the market,Although the fed ease policy,But the market the demand to capital is lower,Because of the money withdrawal,The market various risk assets will equal proportion impairment,This in turn will decide and financial market liquidity situation,obviously,The future financial territory has substantial be changed.