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央行天量逆回购降低降准预期--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-10-31

  昨日3950亿逆回购创单日规模最高;释放资金量相当于一次降准

Yesterday 395 billion reverse repurchase and highest single day scale;There is equivalent to release a drop quasi

  新京报讯 (记者苏曼丽)昨天,央行在公开市场展开3950亿元逆回购操作,创史上单日新高,从释放的资金量上看相当于一次降低存款准备金率。业内专家指出,央行开展如此大规模逆回购,也意味着其动用降准等深度流动性释放工具的可能性降低。

The Beijing news - (Reporter SuManLi)yesterday,The central bank in the open market expansion 395 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation,Gen history record single day,From release on the there is equivalent to a lower the deposit reserve rate.The expert inside course of study points out that,The central bank to carry out such a large-scale reverse repurchase,Also means that its use drop quasi etc depth liquidity releasing tool to reduce the possibility of.

  资金利率大幅回落

Funds rate dropped sharply

  在此前的9月25日,央行以利率招标方式开展2900亿元天量逆回购操作,创出单日逆回购投放量最高纪录。

In the previous September 25,,The central bank to interest rates tender way to carry out 290 billion yuan day quantity reverse repurchase operation,Creating single day reverse repurchase mechanization record.

  逆回购是中国人民银行向一级交易商购买有价证券,并约定在未来特定日期将有价证券卖给一级交易商的交易行为,属于央行向市场上投放流动性的操作。

Reverse repurchase is the people's bank of China to primary dealers to buy securities,In the future and agreed specific date will securities sold to primary dealers transactions,Belong to the central bank liquidity to the market launch of the operation.

  分析人士认为,基于月底银行间市场资金紧张的考虑,中国央行加大了公开市场的逆回购操作规模。有银行交易员表示,临至月底,受前期逆回购到期及银行季节性回款压力影响,市场上资金面出现一定程度的紧张现象,资金价格也随之水涨船高。

Analysts believe that,Based on the end of the month interbank market funds consideration,China's central bank increased the open market inverse repurchase operation scale.A bank traders said,Near to the end of the month,By the reverse repurchase maturity and bank seasonal r pressure influence,The market financing area appear a certain degree of nervous phenomenon,Capital price has a rising tide lifts all boats.

  数据显示,市场资金价格自10月下旬以来出现一定幅度的上扬。上海银行间同业拆放利率Shibor自10月22日以来连续多日快速上扬。就在此次逆回购前一天,Shibor利率全面上涨,尤其是隔夜Shibor利率大幅上涨111基点,为2月以来最大单日涨幅。

Data display,The market price of money since late October appeared since certain scope rise.Shanghai bank inter-bank loan interest rate Shibor since October 22 days since the continuous rapid rise.In the reverse repurchase the day before,Shibor interest rate rise in full,Especially Shibor overnight interest rates rise considerably 111 basis points,Since February for the largest one-day increase.

  而当央行昨天天量逆回购实施后,Shibor利率水平出现下探走势,其中隔夜利率回落137.07基点,一周品种回落95.75基点。期限越短,回落越明显。

And when the central bank yesterday day quantity inverse buyback after implementation,Shibor interest rates appear dipped below trend,The overnight rate dropped 137.07 basis points,A week varieties dropped 95.75 basis points.The shorter the time limit,Back more obvious.

  年内降准降息概率减小

Years drop must reduce probability to cut interest rates

  央行巨量逆回购达3950亿,从释放的资金量上看相当于一次降低存款准备金率。业内专家指出,央行开展如此大规模逆回购,也意味着其动用降准等深度流动性释放工具的可能性降低。

The central bank jillion reverse repurchase 395 billion,From release on the there is equivalent to a lower the deposit reserve rate.The expert inside course of study points out that,The central bank to carry out such a large-scale reverse repurchase,Also means that its use drop quasi etc depth liquidity releasing tool to reduce the possibility of.

  金融问题专家赵庆明指出,短期看这次释放的资金量相当于一次降准,但他指出逆回购有期限,而降准则没有期限,因而不能简单比拟。

Financial experts pointed out that ZhaoQingMing,The short run the release of wrongdoing is equivalent to a drop quasi,But he pointed out that reverse repurchase have an expiration date,And drop criterion there is no deadline,Therefore cannot simple analogy.

  兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家鲁政委指出,逆回购操作已经常态化,此次逆回购操作是在继续调控市场,使市场保持适度状态,年内降准降息的可能性已经减小。

Societe generale(601166,guba)Chief economist commissar lu pointed out,Reverse repurchase operation has normalization,The reverse repurchase operation is in continue to control the market,Make the market keep moderate state,Years down the possibility of must cut interest rates have been reduced.

  在9月份外汇占款出现激增的背景下,对于逆回购纪录不断被刷新,有分析人士认为,受人民币升值预期的影响,外汇占款虽然在未来几个月可能再度出现净增长,并有利于市场流动性的恢复,但央行货币政策对逆回购的偏好不会改变。

In September funding of foreign exchange under the background of a surge,For inverse buyback record is being constantly refresh,Have analysts believe,The yuan appreciation the expected effect,Although the funding of foreign exchange in the next few months could reemergence net growth,And is beneficial to the recovery of market liquidity,But the central bank monetary policy on reverse repurchase preferences will not change.

  鲁政委认为,虽然说现在已经是相当于一次降准的水平,但是考虑到人民币汇率及其诱发的外汇占款的变化,那么央行可能暂时仍然还不会降准。他指出,由于最近人民币汇率的变化,使得市场结汇的热情重新又回来了,从而使得未来的外汇占款可能会比过去增加,所以实际上制约了央行的降准行为。

Lu zhengwei think,Although it is equivalent to a drop quasi level,But considering the RMB exchange rate and its induced changes of funding of foreign exchange,So the central bank might temporarily still won't fall quasi.He pointed out that,Due to recent RMB exchange rate changes,That makes the market enthusiasm of foreign exchange settlement came back again,So that the future funding of foreign exchange may increase than in the past,So actually restricted the central bank drop quasi behavior.

  ■ 相关

S related

  货币基金收益率提升

Monetary fund yield ascension

  十月份以来逐渐紧张的市场资金面正在推升货币基金整体收益率水平,截至10月29日,全市场七日年化收益率在4%以上的货币基金多达17只。第三季度货币基金年化收益率一度降至3.12%。

Since October gradually nervous market financing area are boosted monetary fund overall yield level,As of October 29,,The whole market QiRi annualised rate of return in more than 4% of the monetary fund as many as 17 only.The third quarter monetary fund annualised rate of return once fell to 3.12%.

  银河证券数据显示,A、B类份额中共有17只货币基金7日年化收益率突破4%。其中万家货币(519508,基金吧)七日年化收益率一度高达8.067%,这是该基金七日年化收益率今年以来第10次突破8%以上。

Galaxy securities data display,A/Class B share a total of 17 only monetary fund 7 annualised rate of return break through 4%.The currency of(519508,Fund it)QiRi annualised rate of return once reaches as high as 8.067%,This is the fund QiRi annualised rate of return since this year the 10th breakthrough by more than 8%.

  万家货币基金经理唐俊杰认为,如果央行没有转变货币政策,依然采取逆回购方式来平滑资金,市场资金面将难以很好改善,关键节点上出现资金紧张的局面依然存在,四季度债券市场大概率上将是机会大于风险。

Thousands of monetary fund manager TangJunJie think,If the central bank monetary policy did not change,Still take reverse repurchase way to smooth funds,Market financing area will be hard pressed to very good improvements,The key nodes appear financial strain situation still exists,The fourth quarter of the bond market big probability will be opportunities outweigh the risks.

  在货币基金投资品种中,逆回购也是重要的投资品种之一。

In the monetary fund investment varieties,Reverse repurchase is important one of investment varieties.

  (吴敏)

(users)



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