如果有一天能够和约翰?保尔森坐在咖啡馆里对话，建信基金专户投资部总监助理王林最想问这位“华尔街空神”的问题是：当市场表现与自身判断不吻合的时候，该如何决断，又要如何坚守？

If one day can and John?Paulson sitting in a cafe dialogue,Build letter fund investment department assistant director wang Lin want to ask this"Wall Street empty god"Problem is:When the market performance and his own judge doesn't agree with time,How to bear,And how to stick to?

　　在王林看来，这个问题在他的阅读中没有答案，因为那是投资大师心底里的波澜，不是局中人难解局中事，我们仅仅只能从约翰?保尔森的行动中看到这位当下最红的投资大师，在2006年并没有陷入华尔街的羊群效应，失去对市场做方向性判断的能力。约翰?保尔森虽然工作在纽约，却没有被华尔街的所谓主流观点所干扰，始终坚持对市场的独立判断，在意识到美国房地产出现泡沫之后，通过大量一线数据调查验证自身的判断逻辑，并设计相关产品博取回报，2007年底在金融危机爆发后，做空美国房地产市场的约翰?保尔森管理的两只基金总规模达到280亿美元，其中一只上涨590%，另一只上涨350%，被誉为“华尔街空神”。更让王林佩服的是，之后约翰保尔森无论是在黄金、银行股等多个领域都成功抄到低点，为投资人带来了丰厚的回报。

In wang Lin looks,The problem in his reading no answer,Because that is the investment master the bottom of the waves,Not player obscureness innings things,We only can only from John?Mr Paulson's action see the most current red investment master,In 2006 is not in a Wall Street's herd behavior,Lose to the market orientation judgment ability.John?Paulson while working in New York,But Wall Street is not the so-called mainstream views interference,Always adhere to the market independent judgment,In the consciousness to the United States after the real estate in a bubble,Through a lot of a line data survey verify their own judgment logic,And design related products from returns,By the end of 2007 after the outbreak of the financial crisis,Do empty the United States real estate market's John?Paulson management two fund total scale up to 28 billion dollars,One rose 590%,The other one rose 350%,Is regarded as"Wall Street empty god".More let wang Lin admire is,After John paulson whether in gold/Bank shares, and other fields are successful copy to low,For investors, having brought the generous repayment.

　　“我们可以看到，事实上约翰?保尔森在2007年前在华尔街还是一个无名小卒，但也正是这个无名小卒让我们看到了独立判断的力量，尤其是他决策后敢于下重手，这样的胆略也是投资大师们共同的品质。”王林说：“这是我最敬佩保尔森的地方，作为一个在投资策略上偏价值投资的资产管理者，以独到的思考发掘优质投资标的，是我的追求，也是我的义务。”

"We can see,In fact John?Paulson in 2007 years ago in Wall Street or a nobody,But it is also the nobody asks us to see the power of independent judgment,Especially after his decision to attacked under,Such courage and investment masters common quality."Wang Lin said:"This is I most admire Mr Paulson's place,As an investment strategy in the partial value investment asset managers,With their unique thinking excavation quality investment target,Is my pursuit,Is my duty."

　　总结过往的投资案例，王林也强调独立判断的重要性。“2010年当时市场在第一季度走的还算平稳，也出现了很多唱多唱牛的声音，我自身判断通胀很难在短时间内结束甚至有恶化的趋势，并不看好市场，自己管理的资金仓位较低，表现也不是很理想，在与客户交流的过程中也感受到了一些压力。但我分析种种数据都表明，市场可能孕育着危机，只是还没被解读，之后四五月果然出现了大幅下跌，我也算是通过自己的坚持成功规避了风险。”

Summary of the past our portfolio,Wang Lin also emphasized the importance of independent judgment."At that time the market in 2010 in the first quarter go fairly smooth,Also appeared a lot of sing sing many songs cattle voice,I own judgment inflation is difficult to end in a short time even the trend of deterioration,Do not look good market,The management of their capital positions is low,Performance is not very ideal,In the process of the communication with the customer also feel some pressure.But I analysis various data show,Market may be pregnant with the crisis,Just haven't been read,SiWuYue after it appeared plummets,I also be through their own success to evade the risk."

　　除了与同事沟通，日常的阅读也给了王林投资生涯很多启发。和许多金融人一样，王林喜欢读书，人文、历史、财经、科技无所不读。在他看来，读书是一个重新建立和梳理常识的过程，每一个学科都有其基础的常识，违背了这些最基础的原则的判断路径，必然是不真实的。而在大量阅读基础之上，对突发事件的判断也更容易有自身的角度。

In addition to communicate with colleagues,The daily reading also gave wang Lin investment career a lot of inspiration.And many financial people,Wang Lin like reading,humanistic/history/financial/Science and technology have no don't read.In his view,Reading is a to establish and carding process of common sense,Each discipline has its basic common sense,Against the most fundamental principle judgment path,Inevitable is not true.And in a lot of reading basis,For emergency judgment are also more likely to have their own point of view.

　　王林承认，投资家要坚持自己独立的判断并不容易，尤其是在中国经济处在转型期的阶段，这种独立判断就更加珍贵。“经济转型让A股市场进入到了一个博弈期，长期资本和短期资本在博弈，产业投资者和财务投资者也在博弈，市场的话语主导权现在可以说还很不明晰。在这种情况下价值投资者需要更加清醒的判断，在我个人看来，现在是一个机会孕育期，那些有品牌、有核心技术的长期牛股正在酝酿之中，作为转型期的资产管理者，有责任挖掘这些潜在牛股，为客户博取尽可能多的超额收益。”

Wang Lin admitted that,Capitalists want to insist on their own independent judgment is not easy,Especially in China's economy in the transition stage,This kind of independent judgment is more precious."The transformation of the economic let A share market entered A period of game,Long-term capital and short-term capital in the game,Industry investors and financial investors are in the game,The words of market dominant right now can say is still not clear.In this case the value investors need to more sober judgment,In my opinion,It is a chance incubation period,Those who have the brand/The core technology of the long-term ox is brewing,As the transition asset managers,Have the responsibility to digging the potential winners,For customers as much as possible from the excess earnings."