中国10月出口重返两位数增长，延续9月以来外贸复苏势头；不过当月进口数据则持续偏弱，令顺差扩大至45个月高位。这意味着人民币面临的升值压力料将增大，且年内货币政策或难有进一步放松。

China's October export return to double-digit growth,Since September continuation of foreign trade recovery momentum;But the import data continues to weak,Make surplus expand to 45 months high.This means that the pressures on the renminbi to appreciate material will be increased,And years monetary policy or difficult to have further relax.

　　中国海关周六公布，10月出口同比增长11。6%；进口同比增长2。4%；贸易顺差319。9亿美元；经季节调整後中国10月出口环比降2。3%，进口环增2。8%。

China customs announced on Saturday,October 11 exports year-on-year growth.6%;Import year-on-year growth of 2.4%;The trade surplus of 319.900 million dollars;The season after the adjustment of China's October export link drop 2.3%,Import ring add 2.8%.

　　“出口增速重返两位数以及顺差规模都说明，随着欧美经济的企稳，中国外贸出口的外部环境正向好的方向发展”，光大银行资金部首席经济学家盛宏清称，中国政府9月出台的数项提振外贸的优惠政策都会继续推动外贸出口的进一步增长。

"Export growth to return to the two digits and surplus size instructions,With Europe and the United States economy stabilises,China's foreign trade export of external environment forward good direction",ZiJinBu everbright bank chief economist ChengHongQing says,The Chinese government on September on several preferential policies of boost foreign trade will continue to promote foreign trade export of further growth.

　　但他也指出，鉴於欧美经济复苏至少还需要三个季度的时间，料期间的进出口增速将维持在中度偏低的水平。

But he also pointed out that,In view of Europe and the United States economic recovery at least need three quarters of time,During the period of material import and export growth will remain in moderate low level.

　　中国周五公布的10月工业、投资和消费增速均好於预期，并升至数月高点，强化了中国经济在四季度触底回升的势头。经济回暖纾缓政策进一步放松的压力，短期来看政策面将保持平稳。

China announced on Friday October industry/Investment and consumption growth are better than expected,And high up to a few months,To strengthen the China's economy in the fourth quarter sole picks up momentum.Economy picking up ease policy further relaxation pressure,The short term policy surface will remain stable.

　　10月贸易数据则进一步排除了外需的系统性风险，印证经济继续趋稳态势。不过进口数据欠佳则反映出国内需求回升动力依然偏弱，投资续升则未能带动进口名义增速扩张加快，将对经济复苏有所制约。

October trade data is now further ruled out the systemic risk,Confirm the economy continues to stabilise situation.But import data is poor reflects the domestic demand picks up power is still weak,Investment continued to rise, drive the import nominal growth speed up the expansion,For economic recovery will be curbed.

　　浙商证券宏观经济分析师郭磊亦认为，尽管出口整体呈弱复苏态势，但从广交会订单情况来看，对四季度剩下两个月和明年一季度还是持相对审慎的态度，估计出口趋势值仍会在15%以下的区间。

Zhejiang merchants securities macroeconomic analysts GuoLei also think,Although export whole shows weak recovery situation,But from the China export commodities fair order situation,Four quarter to two months left in the first quarter of next year and still hold relatively prudent attitude,Estimate export trend value will still be below 15% of the interval.

　　郭磊表示，进口数据偏弱显示出内需仍主要由基建拉动，并没有完全传递至制造业和加工贸易。由此可见，经济增长动能的进一步恢复尚需时间。

GuoLei said,Import data shows that domestic demand is still weak mainly by infrastructure pull,And not fully communicated to the manufacturing and processing trade.Thus it can be seen,Economic growth kinetic energy is needed to further recovery time.

　　"进口数据不太理想印证了中国内需启动还处在底部阶段，经济回稳的态势仍然较弱。。。，(进口)有待内需启动的进一步带动"，华创证券研究所副所长华中炜称。

"Import data is not too ideal confirm the Chinese domestic demand is still at the starting stage at the bottom,Economic bounce back situation is still weak...,(import)To start domestic demand to further promote",China securities and deputy director of the institute Hui central said.

　　中国商务部部长陈德铭周六在表示，中国9至10月出口加速表明经济稳中缓升，但实现今年外贸增长10%左右的目标仍有困难，且接下几个月的形势仍然较为严峻，明年困难预料也比较多。

China's ministry of commerce minister Chen deming said on Saturday,China 9 to 10 months that export accelerated economic stability upheaval,But the realization foreign trade growth this year about 10% goal still has difficulty,And took several months of situation is still relatively serious,Expected next year or more difficult.

　　**人民币升值压力加剧，年内降准无望**

* * the appreciation of the renminbi pressure increased,Years drop quasi hopeless * *

　　近期人民币兑美元汇率不断走强，并连续多日触及日间波幅上限。在此背景下，10月贸易顺差创下新高料将进一步加剧人民币升值压力。

Recently the us dollar stronger constantly,And successive days touch day amplitude limit.In this context,October trade surplus hit a record high material will further aggravate the appreciation of the renminbi pressure.

　　多位分析人士预计，年内升值态势或将延续。同时，随着外贸出口持续向好，年内货币政策料保持平稳。

Many analysts expect,Years situation or will continue to rise.At the same time,As foreign trade export hold up well,Years material to maintain stable monetary policy.

　　“随着外贸出口情况的好转，估计年内央行降息或下调存款准备金都将成为泡影。目前境内的美元已显充裕，未来这种情况可能还会加重，人民币升值压力会有所增大”，盛宏清指出。

"As foreign trade export situation better,The central bank to cut interest rates or estimate years cut deposit reserve will vanish into thin air.At present the dollar has abundant within the territory of the show,The future may be aggravated,The appreciation of the renminbi pressure can increase somewhat",ChengHongQing pointed out that.

　　他并分析称，由此带来的外汇占款的增长，令人民币的流动性情况会有所好转，央行流动性管理工具料仍将以公开市场的逆回购为主。

He and analyzes said,That leads to the growth of the funding of foreign exchange,Make the yuan liquidity situation would be improved,The central bank liquidity management tool material will still to open market of reverse repurchase is given priority to.

　　中国外汇交易中心人民币兑美元周五逆转小幅收跌。交易员认为，目前市场美元卖盘压力仍大，而且对人民币升值预期未改。

The China foreign exchange trading center against the dollar Friday reversal small charge fell.Traders think,The present market dollars selling pressure is still large,But also for the appreciation of the renminbi is not expected to change.

　　日信证券首席宏观研究员陈乐天亦认为，人民币升值既有贸易顺差扩大的因素，也有国际投资的因素。中国经济三季度见底确定令国际投资资金看好中国经济前景，积极进入并推升汇率。预计短期内人民币升值的态势可能将持续。

Day letter securities chief macroscopic researchers ChenLeTian also think,The appreciation of the renminbi have trade surplus expansion factor,Also has international investment factors.China's economy in the third quarter to see bottom determine the international investment funds value China's economic prospects,Positive into and push their exchange rates.In the short term is expected to the appreciation of the renminbi will continue the situation may be.

　　中国商务部10月下旬发布报告称，明年中国对外贸易发展内外部环境可能略好於今年，但制约外贸稳定回升的阻力依然存在，外需不足时中国出口受贸易摩擦的影响持续加大。

China's commerce ministry said in a report released in late October,China's foreign trade development next year may be internal and external environment is slightly better than this year,But restrict foreign trade stable picks up resistance still exist,Now China's export insufficient by trade friction influence continue to widen.