⊙本报记者 朱周良

⊙ our reporter ZhuZhou good

　　美银美林全球研究日前发布了对2013年全球市场的十大预测。该行的专家表示，预计明年市场仍将被诸如美国财政悬崖在内的不确定性困扰，但全球经济增长有望在明年下半年提速，最终带来上行风险，美股标普500指数升至1600点新高。

Bank of America merrill lynch global research recently released 2013 global market ten prediction.The bank of experts said,Next year is expected to market will still be such as the United States financial cliff, with uncertainty,But the global economic growth in the second half of next year is expected to speed,Eventually bring increased risk,Beautiful strands of the s&p 500 to 1600 point highs.

　　1、全球经济明年逐步改善，全年增长3.2%，以中美为首。美国财政悬崖问题的解决，加上对西班牙的援助，以及更多的流动性和商品价格的下跌，会对全球企业和消费开支带来帮助。到明年年底，美中两国的经济增速有望分别达到2.5%和8%。

1/The global economy gradually improve next year,Annual growth of 3.2%,Led by China and the United States.The United States financial cliff to the solution of the problem,With the aid of Spain,And more liquidity and commodity prices,For global enterprises and bring help consumer spending.By the end of next year,The us-china economic growth is expected to be 2.5% and 8% respectively.

　　2、美欧财政紧缩抵消货币刺激的作用。明年上半年，央行的货币宽松可能不足以抵消美欧的财政紧缩的影响。美国的财政紧缩可能最多影响GDP达2个百分点。

2/Us and European financial crunch offset the effect of monetary stimulus.The first half of next year,The central bank's monetary loose may not be sufficient to offset the effects of the American and European financial crunch.The United States financial crunch may affects a maximum of 2% of GDP.

　　3、美国楼市复苏提速。美国房价明年将再涨3%，2012年涨了5%左右。住宅动工将增长25%以上。未来10年，美国房地产市场将持续走好，进而给建筑、家具、建材和金融等行业带来机会。

3/The United States housing recovery speed.American house prices will be next year rose 3%,2012 rose by 5%.Housing construction will increase by more than 25%.The next 10 years,The real estate market will continue to walk,And then to the building/furniture/Building materials and financial industries bring opportunities.

　　4、欧债危机仍有星星之火，但不会燎原。欧洲央行将支持西班牙，欧洲经济明年有望保持稳定。但不时仍会有间歇性的麻烦出现，只是欧元区崩盘的风险可能已经消失。

4/The debt crisis still has a spark,But don't start a prairie fire.The European central bank will support the Spanish,The European economy next year is expected to remain stable.From time to time but still has intermittent problems appear,But the risk of collapse of the euro area may have disappeared.

　　5、中国将引领新兴市场复苏。在发达国家增长乏力的背景下，新兴市场的增长渴望达到5.2%，以金砖国家为首，特别是中国。但随着通胀压力上升，新兴经济体要继续放松货币政策的空间越来越小。

5/China will lead the emerging market recovery.In the developed countries under the background of weak growth,Emerging market growth to 5.2%,Led by nuggets countries,Especially in China.But with inflation pressure rise,Emerging economies will continue to relax monetary policy space is more and more small.

　　6、全球股市将成为最佳投资资产。强大的政策支持、合理的估值以及下降的尾部风险，将帮助全球股市成为明年最佳的投资标的。美国、欧洲和亚洲股票可能出现10%至16%的涨幅，而MSCI所有国家股票指数有望升至370点，美股标普500指数明年年底有望达到1600点的历史新高。

6/Global stock markets will be the best investment assets.Strong policy support/Reasonable valuation and risk of the end of the fall,Will help the global stock market become the best investment target next year.The United States/European and Asian stock may appear 10% to 16% of the increase,And all the countries of MSCI stock index is expected to rise to 370 points,Beautiful strands of the s&p 500 the end of next year is expected to reach 1600 points of a record high.

　　7、利率和货币。美元、欧元可能在经济复苏的背景下反弹，推动日元走低，新兴市场货币走高。

7/Interest rates and currency.dollars/The euro may be in the background of the economic recovery rebound,Push down the yen,Emerging market currencies go high.

　　8、高收益和新兴市场债券将跑赢企业债。在2012年的创纪录低收益率之后，美国投资级别企业债明年很可能出现投资回报下降，但高收益债将带来高达7%的回报，新兴市场债券则可能回报10.1%。

and/High yield and emerging market bonds will run QiYeZhai win.In 2012, after a record low yields,The United States investment grade QiYeZhai next year is likely to decline return on investment,But high yield debt will bring as much as 7% of the return,Emerging market bond may return 10.1%.

　　9、固定收益：国债收益率将小幅上升。G3经济体的央行有望维持零利率政策，美国、英国和德国国债有望小幅升至2%、2.5%和1.5%。这意味着，全球主要政府债券的回报率大约在负的3%至正的2%之间。

9/Fixed income:Bond yields will rise slightly.G3 economies are expected to maintain the bank interest policy,The United States/British and German national debt is expected to be slightly to 2%/2.5% and 1.5%.This means that,Global major government bond returns about negative 3% to 2% are between.

　　10、金价可能升至2000美元。美欧央行的大规模政策宽松，会使得黄金成为对抗全球宏观和通胀风险的有益对冲。

ten/Gold prices may rise to $2000.Us and European central bank large-scale policy loose,Will make gold become fight global macro and inflation risk useful hedge.