十八大提出的“双倍增”目标，是一个产业转型和制度变革的目标，必将带来居民财富的增长。而中国未来的经济增长和产业转型，一靠城市，二靠货币，金融业将是驱动增长与创新的主引擎。

The eighteenth big"Double double"The target,Is a system of industry transformation and change of the target,Will bring the growth of residents' wealth.And China's future economic growth and industry transformation,A by the city,The second currency,The financial industry will be driving the main engine of growth and innovation.

　　金岩石

Gold rocks

　　上期专栏写了新股上市之“堵”，本期写一个“等”字。因为《理财周刊》上周刚刚评选出的2012中国理财市场关键字是“等”。那人们都在等什么呢？

The previous column wrote of the ipo"blocking",This writing a"And so on"The word.because[Weekly financial management]Last week just selection out of the 2012 China financial market is the key word"And so on".What people are waiting for?

　　关心政治的人们等换届，美国选总统，俄罗斯换领导，日本换首相；关心经济的人们等复苏，美国次贷危机，欧洲债务危机，全球社会动荡；关心楼市的人们等房价，中心城市的房价逆势回稳，边缘城市的房价跳水下跌，华人热衷的海外楼市购销两旺；关心股市的人们等机会，中国的“钻石底”若隐若现，美国的道琼斯屡创新高。

The people care about politics, such as shift,The elected President of the United States,Russia in leadership,Japan's prime minister,;People care about economic recovery, etc,The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis,The European debt crisis,Global social unrest;People concerned about the property market, such as house prices,Center of the city house prices rallied contrarian,Edge of the city house prices diving down,Chinese of overseas market brisk buying and selling;Care about the people of the stock market, etc,China's"The bottom of the diamond"if,The dow reached record high in the United States.

　　过去三年的股市如卧虎藏龙,虎年、兔年年年下跌,直到龙年末才勉强站住沪指两千点,2013年是蛇年,期望能给投资人带来一个迟来的牛市。十八大提出了“双倍增”的经济发展目标，到2020年实现经济增长的倍增很容易，但若同时达到居民收入倍增的目标，中国经济以往享有的“人口红利”就消失了，廉价劳动力的时代即将结束，所以只能依靠“改革红利”和产业升级。从这个角度看，“双倍增”的目标是一个产业转型和制度变革的目标，必将带来居民财富的增长。所以说，今年人们“等”的是来年的“财”！

Over the past three years the stock market like crouching tiger hidden dragon,The tiger/Rabbit year after year in fall,Until end of dragon reluctantly stood still boomed two thousand points,2013 is a year of the snake,To bring a belated bull market to investors.The eighteenth big was put forward"Double double"The economic development goals,By 2020 it is easy to realize the multiplication of economic growth,But at the same time achieve the objectives of the residents income multiplier,China's economy in the past have"Demographic dividend"disappeared,The era of cheap Labour is coming to an end,So can only rely on"Reform of the dividend"And industrial upgrading.From this perspective,"Double double"Goal is a goal of industry transformation and institutional change,Will bring the growth of residents' wealth.So said,This year people"And so on"For the coming year"wealth"!

　　产业转型靠什么？人们在实体经济中苦苦寻找未来的经济增长引擎，结论却是比较悲观的。道理很简单，成本上升，利润下降，实体经济面临生存危机，中国企业的未来简单地说就是有一种三分法：三分之一停业，三分之一活着，三分之一升级。原来面向海外市场的代工企业必然面临产能过剩，2009~2010年的产能扩张也对加剧产能过剩带来了影响，而这些过剩产能中至少有三分之一将永远不能再恢复生产了。因为闲置产能超过一定时间就是废弃产能，有些企业是由于老板跑路而主动废弃，统计资料中显示的过剩产能中有些早已是废弃产能了！

Industry transformation by what?People in the real economy, searching for the engine of economic growth in the future,The conclusion is more pessimistic.Reason is very simple,Rising costs,Falling profits,The entity economy is facing the survival crisis,Chinese enterprises in the future simply is a kind of three points:A third closure,A third alive,A third upgrade.Original OEM enterprise for the overseas market will be faced with excess capacity,From 2009 to 2010, the production capacity expansion and to heighten the excess capacity,That excess capacity at least one-third will never be able to resume production.Because spare capacity beyond a certain time is waste production,Some enterprise is due to the boss to run and active deserted road,Statistics shown in some of excess production capacity is already abandoned capacity!

　　在我看来，中国未来的经济增长和产业转型一靠城市，二靠货币，金融业将是驱动增长与创新的主引擎。所以我近期多次讲到：再梦沪指三千点，莫将色眼乱空心；经济复兴看股市，大国崛起靠创新。长期以来，人们在理论上只承认劳动创造财富和金融为实体经济服务，而这两个似是而非的理论就是人们心灵中的“有色眼镜”，遮住了面对现实的智慧之光。只要摘下这一双“色眼”就会看到真实的市场经济：在城市化基本完成的发达国家，除了德国经济之外，几乎所有的富裕国家的经济都是虚拟经济总量高于实体经济总量，全球25个超级都市圈承载的财富总量高达全球财富总量的一半以上。所以人们常说：无工农不稳，无金融不富。

In my opinion,China's future economic growth and industry transformation of a city,The second currency,The financial industry will be driving the main engine of growth and innovation.So I talked about many times recently:Dream boomed again three thousand points,He color eyes hollow;Economic revival of watching the stock market,Emerging on innovation.For a long time,People in theory only admit that labor create wealth and financial services for the real economy,And the two specious theory is in the spirit of people"Colored glasses",Covering the face the reality of the light of wisdom.As long as you took off this pair"Color eyes"You will see the real market economy:Basically completed the urbanization in developed countries,In addition to the German economy,Almost all the rich countries of the economy are the virtual economy is higher than the entity economy,Global 25 super metropolitan circle bearing total value of the wealth of up to more than half of total wealth around the world.So it is often said:There is no instability of workers and peasants,No financial not rich.

　　从金融业的发展看，产业资本和金融资本的关系经历了三个阶段：在第一阶段，产融结合以实体为主导，金融业创造了两种主营业态，一是钱庄，二是票号。在这个时代，中国引领世界金融业，史上记载最早的纸币是“成都交子”。在第二阶段，产融结合以虚拟经济为主导，特别是在美国建国之后，债务经济自成体系，负债资产被社会接受为财富，金融业又创造了两种主营业态，一是银行，二是财政。在这个时代，欧美引领全球金融业，如金融寡头摩根说的一句名言：只有黄金是钱，其他皆为信用。在第三阶段，虚拟经济以实体经济为支点创造了一个自我循环，证券化成为金融业的主线，又创造了两种主营业态，一是证券，二是基金。在这个时代，喧嚣的投资人成为全球化市场的主宰，投资理财的产业化把金融业直接升级为风险财富制造业，从而使虚拟经济升级为财富创造的主导。与此同时，城市化的浪潮则让越来越多的家庭接受了一种新的生活方式：富贵险中求，财富即风险。

Seen from the development of the financial industry,The relationship between the industrial capital and financial capital has experienced three stages:In the first stage,In harmony with dominated by the entity,Financial industry created two kinds of main formats,It is a bank,The second is the exchange.In this age,China leads the world financial industry,History is the earliest paper currency"Chengdu hand".In the second stage,In melting combined with virtual economy as the leading factor,Especially after the founding of the people in the United States,Debt its economic system,Debt assets accepted by society for wealth,The financial industry and created two main formats,It is a bank,The second is financial.In this age,Europe and the United States leading the global financial industry,Such as financial oligarchs, Morgan said the words:Only gold is money,Other is credit.In the third stage,Virtual economy on the fulcrum of entity economy to create a self circulation,Securitization has become the main line of the banking industry,And created two kinds of main formats,Is a stock,The second is the fund.In this age,Blatant investors become the master of global market,Finance and investment of the industrialization of the financial industry directly upgraded to risk wealth manufacturing,So that virtual economy upgrade for wealth creation.At the same time,The wave of urbanization is to let more and more families to accept a new way of life:Riches and honour risks and,Wealth is risk.

　　未来十年，中国经济将从一个实体经济占主导的工业化国家逐渐升级为虚拟经济占主导的城市化国家，因此会经历一次思想和生活的“凤凰涅槃”，人们将在泡沫经济的升腾中驱动创新，挑战风险！

In the future ten years,China's economy will be from a dominance of the entity economy industrialized countries gradually upgrade for dominance of the virtual economy country urbanization,So will experience a thought and life"Phoenix nirvana",People will be in the rising of bubble economy driven by innovation,Challenge the risk!