王德培

WangDePei

　　[ 利率市场化不会是一个“摧枯拉朽”的进程，而是率先放开反映市场化元素的力量增长，暂且不动存量，通过市场力量的成长促动利率市场化定价机制的形成 ]

Won't be a [interest rate marketization"just"The process of,But first let reflect market elements the power of growth,Shall not move the stock,Through the growth of the market forces stimulate the formation of market-oriented interest rate pricing mechanism,

　　金融改革高举轻落，加上两条路线“斗争”致使改革方向暧昧不明，已让人吃不准中国金融业接下来到底怎么走。而当下纷繁迷乱的金融现象更让人犯迷糊，扰乱人们对金融形势的判断。

Financial reform high light,Add two routes"struggle"The reform direction ambiguity is unknown,China's financial industry has let people flew away what go next.And numerous and confusion of the present financial phenomenon more let people confused,Troubled people's judgment of the financial situation.

　　目前让人费思量的是，尽管有关方面反复在讲“市场化”，但实际执行中似乎又与此背离，这在前面的金融乱象中已有体现，给人感觉市场化迂回不前。对此，要透过现象看本质。表面似乎悖论，背后实质隐藏把握中国金融形势的纵横坐标，即“双率”市场化与体改渐进化。

At present is to expend consider,Although concerned about again and again"The market",But in the actual execution and seems to be the deviation,This has been reflected in in front of the financial mess,Give a person feel marketization circuitous.this,Want to see the essence through the phenomena.The surface seems to paradox.,Essence hidden behind grasp of China's financial situation and vertical and horizontal coordinates,That is"Double the rate"Marketization and sponsored gradually.

　　与此前相关领域高调、大动作的市场化不同，“双率”市场化过程中所能看到的都是表面文章，似乎在外围打转，更多的是在技术层面不断推陈出新，比如在商业银行的存贷款利率市场化方面，越发依赖创新型的投资基金和理财产品来曲线突破；在汇率市场化上同样也不是直奔“主题”，而是借助离岸市场、跨境贷款以及金融衍生工具等，为汇率市场化定价探路搭桥；股市改革也盯上了类似融资融券等金融衍生品的创新。总体上，就是不碰触根子性的问题，如银行业的国民待遇、资本项目放开、股市的行政配置、“三公”原则等。显然，这与主流舆论所期盼的大手笔式改革有很大的距离，难免让人失落，甚至认为金融市场化无望。

With the previous high in related field/Large movements of the market,"Double the rate"In the process of marketization can see is the surface of the article,Seems to be in the periphery,More is constantly at a technical level,Such as in the commercial bank interest rate marketization,All depend on the innovation of investment funds and financial products to curve;In the marketization of exchange rate also not free"The theme",But with the help of offshore market/Cross-border loans and financial derivatives, etc,For market pricing exchange units bypass;Stock market reform also pursuing similar margin, etc. The innovation of financial derivatives.On the whole,Just don't touch the source of the problem,Such as the national treatment of banking/Capital account open/The administration of the stock market allocation/"Foursquare;"The principle of.obviously,The mainstream public opinion and look forward to the big reform, has a great distance,Hard to avoid lets the people lost,Even think financial marketization hopeless.

　　这其实是没有看到改革阶段性切换已让改革风格收敛。之所以改革失去“锐气”，看起来“避重就轻”，就是因为，从背景性、前提性角度看，新一轮国策的本意是要在非均衡国策与均衡国策之间再均衡。这在于，无论非均衡国策还是均衡国策，在某种程度上都存在矫枉过正，以致这两类国策风格下衍生的社会矛盾和问题相互叠加。在这种背景下，新一轮国策将是在这两者之间收敛、调和，以填平“沟壑”，化解相关矛盾。表现在金融领域，再均衡国策的风格虽然方向上是锁定市场经济，操作手段则是左平右衡、技术派，其实际效果就变成以量变换质变。利用金融脱媒大搞理财产品，其实就意在将资金从银行分流，为存贷款利率市场化创造相对宽松的空间，减小可能的冲击；人民币结售汇市场T+3（当天买入，三日后卖出）交易盛行，变相突破汇率涨跌幅1%的限制，也是积量变待质变的“曲径通幽”之策。诸如此类变化，均无改革之名，却都实实在在的是市场化进程中的“积跬步”。为此，期待质变式的政策变局是不可能的，以为没有发生方向性的变化也是不可能的。

This is not see reform gradual switch have style convergence.The reform of the lost"Your spirit",It looks"fawn",It is because,From the background of/Fist perspective,The original idea of the new policy is in disequilibrium state policy and the equilibrium and balance between national policy.This is to,Both non-equilibrium state policy and balanced state policy,To some extent there are backward,So that these two types of state policy style derived under the social contradictions and problems each other.Under this background,A new round of national policy will be in the convergence between the two/harmonic,In order to heal"gully",Resolve contradictions related.Reflected in the financial sector,To balance the style of the national policy although direction is locking the market economy,Operation method is ZuoPing right value/Technology to send,Its actual effect is become to transform qualitative change.Using financial media off big financial products,In fact is to put money from the bank split,To create the space of the relatively loose interest rate marketization,Reduce the impact of possible;T + 3 RMB r epresents market(The day to buy,After three days to sell)Trading in,In disguised form break rate price limit of 1%,Is also in quantitative change to qualitative change"Secluded spot"The policy of.Such changes,The name of the without reform,But the truth is in the process of marketization"finished".For this,Looking forward to the qualitative change of the policy, which is impossible,Thought without changing direction is impossible.

　　实质上，中国改革进入深水区隐含另一种解读，是指有形空间的先行先试已经不合时宜，而是原体系中动手术，哪怕是微创。当年改革采取先行先试的方式，是因为在思想、体制僵化的背景下，通过点上的突破来带动面上的变革，阻力小、见效快，这种非均衡式的发展模式与当时的经济社会背景是相匹配的。然而，当下非均衡发展的空间本身已被极大压缩，加之在点已连成面，相关问题要在面上或从整个系统的角度来化解时，却还想通过点来破局，无疑是搞错了方向。况且，金融资源的高度流动性本身就消解了画个圈搞试验田的基础。就拿资本项目放开来说，不管在哪个地区试点，都意味着资本项目在全国范围内的开放，所以不但失去试点的意义，还会加剧试点地区与非试点地区金融资源配置的失衡。因此，这样具有全局性、系统性的核心问题走试点路径注定是无解的，温州金融改革试点对各方关切的利率市场化避而不谈，深圳前海改革也未涉及资本项目放开，显然不乏这方面因素的考量。在这种情况下，不可能指望金融改革出现“大手术”，指望遍地开花的金融试验区或金融中心有突破性的大动作同样不切实际。相反，各种“小手术”乃至“微创手术”倒是未来金融改革的特色，并且蕴含着金融业的质变。

In essence,China's reform into the deep water area implied another interpretation,Refers to the physical space of the first try is inappropriate,But in the original system operation,Even if it is minimally invasive.In reforming the way take first try first,Because in the thought/System under the background of rigid,Through the point of breakthrough to drive the change of the surface,Small resistance/Be quick,The non-equilibrium model of development and at the time was matched against the background of economy and society.However,,Unbalanced development of the present space itself has been greatly compressed,And has joined in a face to face,Problems related to surface or from the perspective of the whole system to solve,But also want to through the point to break,There is no doubt that is the wrong direction.besides,The height of the financial resources liquidity itself to negate the draw a circle to the basis of the testing.Take open capital account,No matter in which area,Means the opening of the capital projects throughout the country,So not only lose the meaning of pilot,Also exacerbate pilot areas and other areas imbalance of financial resources allocation.so,So has the overall situation/The core issue of systemic pilot path was destined to be no solution,Wenzhou financial reform of interest rate marketization of all parties concerns steer clear,Shenzhen sea before reform is not involved in capital account open,Obviously there is no lack of the factors.In this case,Don't expect financial reform"Major operation",Hope blossom everywhere in the financial area or financial center has breakthrough the big movement also unrealistic.On the contrary,All kinds of"Small operation"And even"Minimally invasive surgery"It is the characteristics of financial reform in the future,And contains the qualitative change of the banking industry.

　　就利率市场化的最终兑现而言，也将是微变、渐进式的。利率市场化本质就是金融市场的市场化，鉴于金融垄断的现实背景，只有通过放弃垄断，让各方都拥有对等权利、侵入对方领地，这将导致混业大格局的出现，资产管理业务松绑，期货投资放开已拉开混业序幕。在这种格局下，利率市场化不会是一个“摧枯拉朽”的进程，而是率先放开反映市场化元素的力量增长，暂且不动存量，通过市场力量的成长促动利率市场化定价机制的形成。在此过程中，混业将使金融产品交易被前所未有地激活，市场规模将随着金融混业的深入推进而加快膨胀。与此相伴，存款的理财化以及贷款的证券化事实上将不断对非市场化利率釜底抽薪，由此，市场化利率将在外围力量“包抄”下逐步水到渠成。

In terms of interest rate marketization of cash,Will be slightly change/The gradual.The marketization of interest rate marketization is essentially financial markets,In view of the realistic background of the financial monopoly,Only by giving up the monopoly,Let all parties have equal rights/Into each other's territory,This will lead to mix business pattern in the outside,Asset management business easing,Futures investment let opening mixed.Under this kind of pattern,Interest rate marketization is not a"just"The process of,But first let reflect market elements the power of growth,Shall not move the stock,Through the growth of the market forces stimulate the formation of market-oriented interest rate pricing mechanism.In the process,Mixed will make financial products transactions by an unprecedented activation,The size of the market will be along with the deepening of financial mixed into the accelerating inflation.With this company,Financial management of the deposit, and the loan securitization will constantly 釜底抽薪 for non - market interest rates,thus,Market interest rates will be in the periphery"flank"Next step by step.