每日经济新闻记者 赵笛 张昊 牟璇 实习记者 杨维波 饶晓 Daily economic news reporter ZhaoDi hao MouXuan practice reporter YangWeiBo RaoXiao

　　2012年底，“城镇化”概念使不少投资者减亏、扭亏甚至大赚。作为一项重要政策，城镇化绝不会是昙花一现的题材，它或将贯穿2013年全年，并影响未来很长一段时间的经济结构转型，进而深刻改变A股的投资逻辑。尽管前期房地产、基建等城镇化相关概念炒作已经降温，但随着地方“两会”的逐渐召开，有关城镇化的各项议题又将成为市场关注的焦点，并进而引发新一轮的炒作热情。

At the end of 2012,"urbanization"JianKui concept to make a lot of investors/Putting even earn big.As an important policy,Urbanization will never be a flash in the pan,Or it will be through for the year 2013,And influence the future for a long time of the economic structure transformation,Logic and profound change A shares of the investment.Although previous real estate/Infrastructure, such as urbanization related concepts have cooled speculation,But with the place"CPPCC"The gradual held,All the topics related to urbanization and will become the focus of the market,And then trigger a new round of speculation.

　　事实上，关于“城镇化”的各项重磅新闻已经甚嚣尘上。不管是媒体曝光的《全国促进城镇化健康发展规划（2011～2020年）》，还是浙江省开展撤镇设市试点、广安将成为城镇化试点城市的消息，都预示着城镇化概念的炒作又将卷土重来。

As a matter of fact,about"urbanization""All the news has further.Whether the media exposure[Promote the healthy development of urbanization planning throughout the country(From 2011 to 2020)],Or carry out pilot removed town city, zhejiang province/Waste of urbanization will be a pilot city of news,All indicate the hype of the concept of urbanization will be back again.

　　每日经济新闻记者 赵笛

ZhaoDi daily economic news reporters

　　随着地方“两会”即将召开，城镇化概念第二波行情的时间窗口也日益临近。城镇化概念第一波炒作中，水泥、机械、地产、农业等板块齐齐飙涨，那在第二波行情中，又将出现哪些热点呢？

Along with the place"CPPCC"Will be held,Urbanization concept of the second wave of market time window is approaching.The first wave of hype urbanization concept,cement/mechanical/The real estate/Agriculture and so on plate qiqi jacked up,In the second wave of market,What hot will appear again?

　　

城镇化炒作迎来第二波 Urbanization hype in the second wave

　　“十八大”报告将城镇化放在了两个十分重要的位置：一是城镇化成为全面建成小康社会的载体，二是城镇化成为经济结构调整和发展方式转变的载体。

"The eighteenth big"Urbanization report will be put in the position of the two is very important:One is the carrier of urbanization become into a well-off society in an all-round way,Second, urbanization become the carrier of economic structure adjustment and development mode change.

　　显然，城镇化已经成为中国经济发展的重中之重。在此背景下，从11月底开始，A股城镇化概念第一波炒作兴起，且炒作重点围绕农村改革和城市基建展开。

obviously,The top priority of the urbanization has become China's economic development.Under the background of the,Since the end of November,A-share urbanization concept first wave hype,And hype focusing on rural reform and urban infrastructure.

　　辉隆股份(002556,股吧)代表的是农资流通、新研股份(300159,股吧)代表的是农业机械化、秦岭水泥(600217,股吧)则代表的是城镇基建，而地产股的强势表现则代表了城镇化趋势下房地产的涨价逻辑。

Hui long shares(002556,Shares!)Is representative of the agricultural circulation/New research shares(300159,Shares!)Is representative of agricultural mechanization/Qinling cement(600217,Shares!)Is representative of the urban infrastructure,While the strong performance of the sector represents the urbanization trend of real estate prices.

　　不过，在持续上涨1个多月后，无论是农业股、机械股、水泥股还是地产股都显出疲态，呈现出横盘震荡态势，城镇化概念迫切需要新的热点出现。

but,After continue to rise more than 1 months,Whether agricultural stocks/Mechanical shares/Cement shares or sector are signs,Present a sideways concussion,Urbanization concept urgently need a new hot spot.

　　随着2013年的到来，城镇化概念第二波的时间窗口已经出现，这就是各地区陆续召开的“两会”。

With the coming of 2013,Concept of the second wave of urbanization time window has emerged,This is the area held in succession"CPPCC".

　

　地方“两会”或热议城镇化 place"CPPCC"Or the urbanization of hot debate

　　在1月底之前，全国各地的“两会”都将陆续开幕。有分析人士指出，在地方“两会”上，城镇化将成为与会代表热议的话题之一。

Before at the end of January,All over the country"CPPCC"All will be open.With analysts said,In the local"CPPCC"On the,Urbanization will become one of the delegates topic of hot debate.

　　“两会”尚未召开，不少地方已在谋划如何打好城镇化这张牌。

"CPPCC"Has not yet been held,Many places has set up a file in the plan how to play this card of urbanization.

　　新年伊始，有报道称，海口市统筹城乡综改试验区已经上报国家发改委，正等待批复。而早在2012年12月25日，浙江省发改委主任孙景淼就提出 “开展撤镇设市的制度和路径研究”。在随后召开的“小城市培育试点工作现场推进会”上，更是传出的浙江 “初步考虑建立小城市试点镇用地指标单列制度，争取国家在浙江率先开展撤镇设市试点，将条件具备的镇升格为小城市”等消息。

At the beginning of New Year,A new report says,Haikou city coordination of urban and rural zong change test has been submitted to the national development and reform commission,Waiting for reply.And as early as December 25, 2012,Zhejiang province development and reform commission director SunJingMiao is put forward "To be the city system and path of research".At the later on"Small city foster propulsions pilot work site"On the,Is out of zhejiang "Preliminary considering small city ShiDianZhen land index as a separate system,For countries from town in zhejiang province took the lead in a city,Will have the condition of the upgraded to small city"Such as news.

　　在西部，去年11月30日，国家发改委批复了川渝合作示范区 （广安片区）建设总体方案。在该方案中，提及的“适时调整行政区划，支持广安申报较大的市”。此后，广安地区的上市公司广安爱众在横盘近一年后突然涨停，随后有消息称广安将成为城镇化试点城市，甚至有可能成为继喀什后，西部第二个经济特区。

In the west,On 30 November last year,National development and reform commission approval for chongqing cooperation demonstration zone (Cross section area)Construction of the overall plan.In the scheme,Mention of the"Timely adjust administrative divisions,Support cross declare a major city".Since then,Cross section area of the cross love the listed companies in the plate close to harden suddenly a year later,Then there is the news says the waste will be urbanization pilot cities,May be even after the kashgar,In the west a special economic zone.

　　有消息称，目前不少地区有意申报城镇化试验区，而即将开幕的地方“两会”必将出现此类消息的“大爆发”，从而拉开城镇化概念第二波行情的序幕，相关地区的受益上市公司也将成为资金关注的重点。

A source says,At present a lot of areas to declare the urbanization,The imminent opening of the place"CPPCC"Will appear this kind of news"outbreak",To open the prelude of the concept of the second wave of urbanization situation,Related areas benefit from the funds of listed companies also will become the focus of attention.

　　

政策落实在三月份 Policy implementation in March

　　在地区“两会”热炒城镇化建设之后，城镇化各项政策的落实还要静待全国“两会”。2013年的“两会”时间是在3月初。

In the region"CPPCC"After the storm the urbanization construction,The urbanization policies and the implementation of static for the country"CPPCC".In 2013,"CPPCC"Time is in early march.

　　此时，城镇化概念或将进入第三波，真正受益于城镇化建设的上市公司将脱颖而出。

At this time,Urbanization concept or will enter the third wave,Really benefit from urbanization construction of the listed company will stand out.

　　国海证券(000750,股吧)分析师马金良指出，城镇化建设中必须实现的政策前提包括土地改革、户籍改革、收入分配制度改革、社会保障制度改革等四大类。

GuoHai securities(000750,Shares!)Analysts MaJinLiang said,Urbanization must be realized in the construction of policy premise including land reform/The household registration reform/Income distribution system reform/Social security system reform of four categories.

　　这其中，土地改革主要内容是土地流转以及土地的集约使用。此前，农资流通、农业机械股炒作的思路有望再现；户籍改革的目的是实现农村转移人口的市民化。显然，随着城镇化人口的增多，生活水平的提高，商业零售、地产等消费股将受益；收入分配改革需要从工资、税收、福利三方面调整收入分配结构、强调二次分配的公平、减少灰色收入、垄断国企改革、提高低收入群体收入，让全民分享改革发展成果。这有望提高农村居民收入，从而带来消费升级；社会保障制度改革的主要方向是教育改革、医疗改革等。这关系到农村人口进城后的一系列配套措施。这类政策将利好教育、医药、医疗保健类个股。

This among them,Land reform land circulation is the main content and the intensive use of land.The previous,Agricultural circulation/Agricultural machinery of hype the train of thought is expected to represent;The purpose of the household registration reform is to achieve the urbanization of rural population transfer.obviously,Along with the urbanization of the population increase,The improvement of living standards,Commercial retail/Real estate, consumers will benefit;Income distribution reform need from salary/tax/Benefits adjusting income distribution structure three aspects/Emphasis on secondary distributive justice/Reduce the gray income/Monopoly state-owned enterprise reform/Improve the low-income income,Let all the people share the achievements of reform and development.This is expected to improve rural residents' income,Thus bring consumer upgrades;The social security system reform is the main direction of education reform/Medical reform, etc.This relationship to the rural population into the city after a series of supporting measures.This kind of policy will be good education/The medicine/Health care kind of stocks.

　

　投资方向1 Investment direction 1

　　重大工程创造新需求楼市预期继续向好

Major projects to create new market demand is expected to continue going well

　　每日经济新闻实习记者 杨维波

Daily economic news practice reporter YangWeiBo

　　据报道，围绕未来城镇化战略布局，下一步国家将统筹推进铁路、公路、水运、航空、输油气管道和城市交通基础设施建设，以支撑和引导城镇化。有分析人士指出，随着西气东输项目的全面启动、南水北调工程竣工时间的日益临近，相关产业链公司值得重点关注。

According to the report,Around the future urbanization strategy layout,Next country will promote the railway as a whole/The highway/Water transport/aviation/Oil and gas pipelines and urban transportation infrastructure construction,To support and guide the urbanization.With analysts said,Along with the west-east gas transmission project/The south-to-north water transfer project completion time is becoming more and more near,Related industrial chain company is focus on.

　　两大工程带动管道需求

Two engineering drive pipe needs

　　不可否认，龙泉股份(002671,股吧)是近期市场中的一只牛股，其背后的故事，就是公司不断中标河南南水北调工程PCCP管道大单。

There is no denying the fact,Longquan shares(002671,Shares!)In the recent market an ox,The story behind it,Is the company bid henan PCCP pipeline large sheet of south-to-north water diversion project.

　　《每日经济新闻》记者了解到，河南属于南水北调工程中线，其主体和配套工程需要在2013年完成。“中国南水北调网”显示，河北省南水北调中线主体工程也会在今年建成。有券商分析师认为，河北和山东段的配套工程招投标进度会加快，对相关管道企业形成利好。

[Daily economic news]The reporter understands,Henan belong to the middle route of south-to-north water diversion project,The main body and form a complete set of project needs to be completed in 2013."China's south-to-north water diversion project"display,South-to-north water transfer project in hebei province main body project will be completed in this year.A securities analyst said,Hebei and shandong section of the form a complete set of project bidding will speed up the progress,Enterprises to form positive to related piping.

　　瞄准南水北调中线工程的企业不在少数。地处新疆的国统股份(002205,股吧)去年11月14日公告，公司将募投项目进行了大规模变更，其中最为引人注意的是公司将原来在新疆的募投项目改在天津。有分析人士指出，在南水北调中线工程中，公司今年和明年将迎来大规模建设期，管道需求爆发，公司来天津设厂也有分一杯羹的意图。

Aimed at the south-to-north water transfer project enterprise is not a few.Is located in the xinjiang GuoTong shares(002205,Shares!)Last year, on November 14,The company will raise project on a large scale changes,One of the most notable is the original company in xinjiang of offering for project in tianjin.With analysts said,In the south-to-north water transfer project,The company this year and next year will be large-scale construction period,Pipeline needs outbreak,Company to a slice of factories also have the intention of tianjin.

　　据媒体报道，去年10月16日，西气东输三线工程项目在北京、新疆、福建同时开工，这也意味着西气东输全面启动。据了解，西气东输三线建设总投资1250亿元，将于2015年全线贯通。

According to media reports,Last October 16,,Three west-east gas transmission line project in Beijing/Xinjiang uygur autonomous region/Fujian started at the same time,This means that west-east gas transmission.It is understood,West-east gas transmission "third line construction with a total investment of 125 billion yuan,Will all be well versed in 2015.

　　华泰证券(601688,股吧)研究认为，随着西气东输三线招标的启动，全国管道建设开始提速；今年中石油的中缅管线和中石化的新粤浙管线均有望启动招标，这两条管线的规划长度分别为1727和7373公里，估算将带动耗管量约400万吨以上。

Huatai securities(601688,Shares!)Studies suggest that,As the three west-east gas transmission line bidding starts,The pipeline construction to speed;This year in the myanmar of oil pipeline and new guangdong zhejiang sinopec pipelines are expected to start the bidding,The pipeline length of planning for 1727 and 7373 km respectively,Estimate will drive tube consumption is about 4 million tons.

　　西气东输气源地的新疆浩源(002700,股吧)前期就受到热捧，公司主营业务为天然气输送及销售。不过，随着西气东输项目的启动，分析指出，对相关公司而言，影响最直接的则是管道生产企业。目前主要涉足输气管道制造的公司为玉龙股份(601028,股吧)和金洲管道(002443,股吧)。

The west-east gas transmission QiYuanDe HaoYuan in xinjiang(002700,Shares!)So early,The company main business for natural gas transportation and sales.but,As the west-east gas transmission project starts,Analysis shows that the,For related companies,Influence is the most direct is pipe production enterprise.At present mainly in gas transmission pipeline manufacturing company of yulong shares(601028,Shares!)And jinzhou pipe(002443,Shares!).

　　楼市向好预期提升

Property market looks expected to ascend

　　尽管房地产仍然遭遇到国家的严厉调控，不过相关数据却显示，房地产投资增速正在扭转。据国家统计局发布的消息，2012年1～11月份，全国房地产开发投资6.48万亿元，同比名义增长16.7%，这也是去年1～7月全国房地产投资增速跌破16%以后，首次反弹至16%以上。

Although the real estate is still to the strict control of the country,But the data is displayed,Real estate investment growth is reverse.According to the national bureau of statistics released the news,1 to November 2012,The national real estate development investment of 6.48 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 16.7% in the name,This is last year 1 ~ 7 months after the national real estate investment growth rate below 16%,To more than 16% for the first time.

　　有分析人士指出，在新型城镇化下，我国的城镇化率将得到较大的提升。伴随着城镇化一起到来的将是大量的农民进城，以及大量的住房、教育、医疗等资源的需求。

With analysts said,Under the new urbanization,China's urbanization rate will get bigger.Together with urbanization will be the arrival of a large number of farmers into the city,And a large number of housing/education/The needs of medical resource.

　　除此之外，近期房地产公司纷纷出手拿地，制造多个“地王”。有分析人士表示，地王效应会给购房者心理造成压力，而近期房地产市场成交量开始显现回暖迹象。

In addition to,The recent real estate companies sell the land,Make more than"star".With analysts said,Star effect will give buyers psychological pressure,But in the real estate market turnover began to show signs of warmer.

　　二级市场上，房地产个股的表现也精彩纷呈。保利地产(600048,股吧)逼近2009年的高点，阳光城、华夏幸福(600340,股吧)两只地产股早已一飞冲天，迭创新高。

Secondary market,The performance of the real estate stocks also brilliant.Poly real estate(600048,Shares!)Approaching the 2009 high,Sunshine town/Chinese happy(600340,Shares!)Two sector has soared,Being a new high.

　　中投证券研究认为，虽然今年国家对楼市的调控不会放松，但商品房销售面积等先行指标已出现好转迹象，相关房地产上市企业仍然值得关注。

Cast securities research believe that,Although this year national regulation in the property market will not relax,But the sales area leading indicators such as already showed signs of improvement,Related to the real estate listed company still concern.

　　

投资方向2 The investment direction and

　　城市群战略出炉“设市概念”公司迎机遇

Strategy of urban agglomeration"Set up the concept"The company to meet the opportunity

　　每日经济新闻记者 张昊

Economic daily news reporter hao

　　日前有媒体报道，由国家发改委牵头，财政部、国土资源部、住建部等十多个部委参与编制的《全国促进城镇化健康发展规划 （2011～2020年）》（以下简称《规划》）将于今年全国“两会”前后对外颁布。《规划》将涉及全国20多个城市群、180多个地级以上城市和1万多个城镇的建设，为新型城镇化提供了发展思路，提出了具体要求。

Recently there are media reports,Led by the national development and reform commission,The ministry of finance/The ministry of land and resources/Live JianBu etc. More than 10 ministries involved in the preparation[Promote the healthy development of urbanization planning throughout the country (From 2011 to 2020)](Hereinafter referred to as the[planning])Will be in the country this year"CPPCC"Before and after the foreign issued.[planning]Will be involved in more than 20 cities in the country/More than 180 ground level above the construction of more than 10000 cities and towns,Provided for the new type of urbanization development,Specific requirements are put forward.

　　业内人士指出，元旦前夕A股市场有关撤县、镇设市的相关个股受到追捧，本次《规划》出台涉及20多个城市群、上万城镇，东部地区中心镇、中西部地区县城等相关区域内上市公司有望继续受到资本市场的追捧。

The personage inside course of study points out that the,On New Year's eve a-share market on withdrawal county/Town city related stocks by chase after hold in both hands,this[planning]Issued in more than 20 cities/Tens of thousands of cities and towns,Central town in the east/In the Midwest county and other related areas of listed companies is expected to continue to chase after hold in both hands by the capital market.

　　中小城市被重点关注

Small and medium-sized cities are focus on

　　根据《规划》，未来新型城镇化建设将遵从 “公平共享”、“集约高效”、“可持续”三个原则，按照“以大城市为依托，以中小城市为重点，逐步形成辐射作用大的城市群，促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展”的要求，推动城镇化发展由速度扩张向质量提升转型。

According to the[planning],New urbanization construction will follow in the future "Fair share"/"Intensive and efficient"/"sustainable"Three principles,In accordance with the"Relying on the city,Focusing on small and medium-sized cities,Gradually form the radiation effect of urban agglomeration,Promote the coordinated development of medium and small cities and small towns"The requirements of the,Promoting the development of urbanization from expanding to quality improvement.

　　对于新型城镇化战略布局，在东部地区，优化提升京津冀、长三角和珠三角城市群，逐步打造更具国际竞争力的城市群；在中西部资源(600139,股吧)环境承载能力较强的地区，培育壮大若干城市群。在此基础上，优先发展区位优势明显、基础条件较好的中小城市，有重点地发展小城镇，把有条件的东部地区中心镇、中西部地区县城和重要边境口岸逐步发展成为中小城市。

For the new urbanization strategy layout,In the eastern region,Optimization of jingjinji ascension/Yangtze river delta and pearl river delta urban agglomeration,Step by step to create more international competitiveness of the urban agglomeration;In the Midwest resources(600139,Shares!)Environmental carrying capacity of the strong,Foster and strengthen some urban agglomeration.On the basis of the,Priority to the development of location advantage is obvious/Basic conditions good small and medium-sized cities,A key to develop small cities and towns,The conditional central town in the east/In the Midwest county and important frontier ports gradually developed into small and medium-sized cities.

　　某券商策略分析师告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，《规划》首先强调的是城市群的建设，而城市群并不是已有大城市的发展，它是中心镇、中西部地区的县城、重要的边境口岸。这些地方由镇、县城发展为中心城市，首先要解决的是土地的自由流转。土地流转后，农民进入城市，规模化经营将得以实现，同时土地集约使用，增强土地利用率和农民收入分配，也将加快农村转移人口市民化。当农民变为市民后，相关配套设施如社会福利、公用事业建设、农民收入分配等也将一并跟上，这也是发展为中小城市的基础。

Some brokers strategy analyst told[Daily economic news]The reporter,[planning]First of all, it is emphasis on the construction of urban agglomeration,The urban agglomeration is not for the development of large cities,It is a central town/In the Midwest of the county/Important frontier ports.These places by the town/The county development as the center city,First to solve is the land of the free circulation.After the land circulation,Farmers into the city,Scale will be realized,Intensive land use at the same time,Enhance land use efficiency and farmers income distribution,Will also accelerate the urbanization of the rural population transfer.When the farmers become citizens,Relevant supporting facilities such as social welfare/Construction of public utilities/The farmers' income distribution and so on also will keep up,This is the basis for the development of small and medium-sized cities.

　　“土地改革是最艰难的一项政策，它的自由流通并不是强迫农民放弃土地。”上述券商策略分析师认为，它必须是遵循自愿的原则，上述《规划》以重要的区域就地进行中小城市发展，或许是土地改革一项尝试。

"Land reform is one of the most difficult policies,It is not for the free flow of forced farmers to abandon the land."Analysts believe the brokers strategy,It must be follow the principle of voluntary,The above[planning]Conducted on the spot to important areas of the development of small and medium-sized cities,May be an attempt to land reform.

　　新主题投资：“设市概念”

The new theme of investment:"Set up the concept"

　　在上述《规划》中，有关建立城市群，以东部、中西部及边贸口岸的镇、县发展为中小城市，这又带来怎样的投资机遇呢？

In the above[planning]In the,About building urban agglomeration,In order to the east/The Midwest and the town of border trade port/County development for small and medium-sized cities,What kind of investment opportunities and bring this?

　　上述事件性投资机会可以归纳为撤镇、县设市概念。实际上在元旦前，A股市场的相关概念股就已腾空出世，其触发因素是浙江27个小城市入选培育试点的中心镇，由此带动宁波建工(601789,股吧)、方正电机(002196,股吧)等个股强势涨停。

The above events of investment opportunities can be classified into three categories from the town/County city concept.Actually before New Year's day,A-share market related concept has suspension was born,The trigger is a very small city in zhejiang and the cultivation of pilot zhong xin,Which drive the construction of ningbo(601789,Shares!)/Founder motor(002196,Shares!)Such as stocks strong harden.

　　某券商策略分析师认为，设市概念有望推升A股市场城镇化另一类主题投资机会，区域内相关上市公司有望得到市场的持续关注。

Analysts say a brokers strategy,City concept is expected to be boosted the a-share market urbanization another theme of investment opportunities,Area related to the listed company to be the concern of the market.

　　其实这类概念背后的投资逻辑，一是行政放权带动相关公司的发展壮大，比如地方优惠政策，税收优惠补贴，土地市场的优惠等；二是发展成中小城市，城市面积的扩大势必对土地的需求增大，区域内拥有土地的上市公司有望得到更好的溢价，比如可能因城市的发展进行搬迁，上市公司废旧库房有望产生溢价等；三是行政放权后，已有的上市公司将会用好的平台去发展生产、拓展客户，从行政放权的角度其本身也将对区域内上市公司构成利好。

Actually this kind of concept behind the investment logic,One is the administrative decentralization driven related the development of the company,Such as local preferential policies,The preferential tax subsidies,Land market of preferential, etc;2 it is to develop small and medium-sized cities,The expansion of urban area will increase the demand for land,Area have the land of the listed company is expected to get better at a premium,Such as possible due to the development of the city on the move,Listed companies waste warehouse is expected to produce premium, etc;The third is administrative decentralization,Of the listed company will in good platform to develop production/Expand customer,From the Angle of administrative decentralization itself will also be listed companies within the area constitutes a positive.

　　尽管上述《规划》并未正式对外公布，因此具体涉及哪些省、县、镇发展中小城市尚不得而知，但《规划》中指明了三大区域：东部地区中心镇、中西部地区县城、重要边贸港口。

Although the above[planning]Not formally announced,So what are the provinces in the/county/Town development of small and medium-sized cities are still unknown,but[planning]Middle finger and three area:Central town in the east/The county town of the central and western regions/Important border trade port.

　　首先看东部地区中心镇。前期浙江撤镇设市可能是一个导向，其官方微博也表示出争取国家在浙江率先开展撤镇设市试点的意愿，因此，区域内的上市公司如浙江诸暨市店口镇露笑科技(002617,股吧)、海亮股份(002203,股吧)、万安科技(002590,股吧)；余杭区塘西镇的宝鼎重工(002552,股吧)等有望受到资金的持续跟踪；再看重要的边防港口，位于广西北海的北海港、北海国发(600538,股吧)，以及受益于中朝边境经济区开发的曙光股份(600303,股吧)、长春经开(600215,股吧)等有望受益；尽管中西部撤县设市的具体区域还未出台，不过投资者也可以从陕西、青海、贵州等相关省份选择并关注相应的上市公司标的。

First of all, the central town in the east.Early withdrawal, zhejiang town city can be a guide,Its official micro bo also expressed to countries from town city in zhejiang province took the lead in the will of the pilot,so,Listed companies in the areas such as zhejiang zhuji store mouth town laugh science and technology(002617,Shares!)/The sea bright shares(002203,Shares!)/Vie science and technology(002590,Shares!);Baoding yuhang district tang west town of heavy industry(002552,Shares!)And is expected to continue to follow up by the capital;To see important frontier port,Located in the north of guangxi beihai port/Beihai nation(600538,Shares!),Economic zone development and benefit from the border of dawn(600303,Shares!)/Changchun is open(600215,Shares!)And is expected to benefit from;Despite the Midwest from specific areas of the county city has yet to come,But investors can also from shaanxi/qinghai/Guizhou province related listed companies choose and pay attention to the corresponding targets.

　　

投资方向3 Investment direction 3

　　轨道交通将与城镇化并驾齐驱

Rail transit will keep pace with urbanization

　　每日经济新闻实习记者 饶晓

Daily economic news practice reporter RaoXiao

　　城市轨道交通系统已被证明是对城市土地进行高效使用的必要手段，而城际铁路则代表着城市之间低廉且快速的流通通道。发展轨道交通是推进城镇化的必要条件，在城镇化全面铺开的大背景下，轨道交通将迎来重大机遇。

Urban rail transit system has been proved to be efficient use of urban land,And inter-city railway, representing the city between low and fast circulation channel.Development of urban rail transit is the essential condition of urbanization,In the background of urbanization rolled out,Rail transit will have great opportunities.

　　城市轨道

Urban rail

　　城市轨道交通在未来将成为公共交通系统中最主要的组成部分。公开数据表明，国外一线大城市如纽约、巴黎、伦敦等的轨道交通客运量占公共交通系统的80%以上，而国内城市轨道交通比较发达的北京、上海等城市城轨客运量不到40%。而其他二线城市大多处于轨道交通刚起步的阶段，其后续提升空间巨大。

Urban rail transit in the future will become the main part of the public transport system.Public figures show that,Foreign line cities such as New York/Paris/London, such as the rail transit passenger transport accounts for more than 80% of the public transport system,Urban rail transit in China and a relatively developed in Beijing/Shanghai city urban rail passenger quantity less than 40%.And most other second-tier cities in urban rail transit has just started,The subsequent improve space is huge.

　　2012年9月份，发改委集中批复了全国多个城市的轨道交通建设规划，城轨在建投资规模超过1.2万亿。发改委对发展轨道交通的城市提出的基本指标是城市人口达到300万，我国达到300万以上人口的城市已有50个，但目前只有30多个城市拥有或已经规划轨道交通，其他城市尚处于空白状态。以重庆市为例，重庆已开通三条地铁和轻轨线路，但仍规划在2020年前还将开通另外7条线路，未来几年重庆的城市轨道建设项目将持续高速发展。

In September 2012,Development and reform commission on reply more than the country of the urban rail transit construction planning,Urban rail construction investment more than 1.2 trillion.Development and reform commission of the city for the development of rail transit fundamental index is the city's population reached 3 million,City of more than 3 million people in China for more than 50,But at present, only more than 30 cities has or has been planning urban rail transit,Other cities are still in a blank state.Taking chongqing as an example,Chongqing has opened three subway and light rail lines,But still planning in line 7 will also open another 2020 years ago,The next few years of chongqing urban rail construction projects will continue to rapid development.

　　在城市轨道交通建设中，建筑工程企业分得订单总额最大。隧道股份(600820,股吧)在长三角地区主要涉及地铁及隧道等项目，隧道项目上市场占有率领先同类企业。国泰君安证券在近期的一份调研中指出，随着基础建设投资逐渐加大，地方政府资金面有所好转，公司今年的地铁及隧道项目将好于2012年。

In the construction of urban rail transit,Construction enterprise total order.Tunnel shares(600820,Shares!)In the Yangtze river delta region is mainly related to the subway and tunnel projects,Tunnel project on the leading market share similar enterprises.Cathay Pacific hand to securities pointed out that in a recent survey,Along with the gradually increasing infrastructure investment,The local government financing area better,Company this year, the subway and tunnel project will be good in 2012.

　　城际铁路

The inter-city railway

　　城镇化发展到一定程度，中心城市将逐渐难以满足人口和经济的增长，城市之间、城市群之间的人才交流、贸易往来，都需要更加方便快捷的交通方式将城市与城市、城市群与城市群连接在一起。在这个基础上，一线大城市将逐渐形成郊区化、卫星城的模式，二三线城市则将向城市群发展。

Urbanization development to a certain extent,Center city will gradually to meet the growth of population and economy,Between cities/The talent exchange between urban agglomeration/trade,Need to be more fast and convenient way of transportation will be city and city/Urban agglomeration and urban agglomeration connected together.On this basis,A gleam of big cities will gradually formed suburbanization/The mode of satellite,The three lines city will to urban agglomeration development.

　　铁道部在2012年四次上调铁路基础建设年度投资目标，这比年初的预算提高了27%，2012年四季度以来，铁路投资开始加速，铁路固定资产投资额由年初的全年5160亿上调至6300亿元，其中铁路基建投资从4060亿元大幅上调至5160亿元。在铁道部公布的“十二五”规划目标中，铁路固定资产投资总规模为2.8万亿，未来3年铁路固定资产投资仍将平稳增长，而长江三角洲、珠江三角洲、中原城市群、武汉城市圈等十几个地区的城际铁路项目都将规划建设。

Railway in 2012 raised four times railway infrastructure annual investment objectives,That was 27% higher than that of budget at the beginning of the year,Since the fourth quarter in 2012,Railway investment begins to accelerate,Railway investment of fixed assets by the year 516 billion at the beginning of the year up to 630 billion yuan,The railway construction investment significantly raised from 406 billion yuan to 516 billion yuan.Released by the ministry of railways"1025"Objectives of the plan,Railway the overall scale of investment in fixed assets for 2.8 trillion,Over the next three years the railway will be steady growth of investment in fixed assets,And the Yangtze river delta/The pearl river delta/The central plain urban cluster/Ten areas such as the wuhan city circle of the inter-city railway projects will be planning and construction.

　　二级市场上，中国铁建(601186,股吧)在铁路建设领域处于领先地位，同时在地铁建设的市场占有率高达50%，是轨道交通建设的龙头级企业。同时还可关注中国南车(601766,股吧)，其动车组收入占比接近30%，公司同时还生产城轨地铁，将受益城轨项目的集中爆发。

Secondary market,China railway construction(601186,Shares!)In the field of railway construction is in the lead,At the same time in the subway construction market share as high as 50%,Is one of the leaders in the rail transit construction level of enterprise.At the same time also can focus on China southern railway(601766,Shares!),The emu than income accounts for close to 30%,The company also produces urban rail subway at the same time,Will benefit of urban rail project.

　

　私募观点 Private opinion

　　新型城镇化概念将持续很多年

New concept of urbanization will continue for many years

　　每日经济新闻记者 牟璇

MouXuan daily economic news reporters

　　2013新年伊始，《每日经济新闻》邀请了三家阳光私募管理人，他们分别是汇利资产总经理何震、新海天投资总监杨虎、挺浩投资总经理康浩平，共同探讨了新型城镇化带来的投资机遇。

2013 at the very beginning of a New Year,[Daily economic news]Invited three sunshine private equity managers,They are general manager HeZhen huili assets/The new Haitian investment director YangHu/Very gallant investment KangHaoPing general manager,Discuss the new urbanization of investment opportunities.

　　NBD：您认为新型城镇化是个怎样的主题，能否成为2013年的投资主线。

NBD:Do you think the new urbanization is a what kind of topic,Can become the main investment in 2013.

　　何震：城镇化的核心是农村人口转移到城镇，而不是单纯往城市涌入建高楼、建大厦。与传统提法比较，新型城镇化更强调内在质量的全面提升。城镇化是个很大的主题，如果城镇化能够顺利实施推广，不仅能够拉动消费与投资，而且能够使工业、农业与改革协调发展。应该来说，这个大主题会持续很多年，涉及的面也非常广泛，因此在今年的投资中还是需要密切关注其进展以及相应的可能会受益的公司。

HeZhen:Urbanization is the core of the rural population transferred to the town,Rather than simply go into cities built tall buildings/To build the building.Compared with the traditional formulation,New type of urbanization is more emphasis on internal comprehensive quality of ascension.Urbanization is a big topic,If urbanization can smooth implementation,Can not only drive consumption and investment,But also can make industry/Agriculture and coordinated development of the reform.Should it,The themes will last for many years,Involves the presence of also is very wide,So in this year's investment in or need to pay close attention to the progress and the corresponding may benefit from the company.

　　杨虎：从现在来看，新型城镇化是个宏观概念，上一轮牛市时就提及过城镇化的概念，而此次是把新型城镇化提到了一个战略新高度，这个方向是非常好的，将大中小城市和小城镇连接起来，促进不同规模的城市和小城镇的共同发展，这对于扩大内需是有很大帮助的。

YangHu:From now to see,New type of urbanization is a macro concept,Bull market in the last round when he mentioned the concept of urbanization,And this is the new urbanization mentioned a new strategic height,This direction is very good,Will connect medium and small cities and small towns,To promote the common development of cities and small towns of different sizes,It is of great help to expand domestic demand.

　　康浩平：新型城镇化确实可以较快速地推动我国经济的企稳向好。现在来看，出口持续低迷，促进消费方面也难见成效，新型城镇化主要是投资，一旦实施见效很快。不过新型城镇化似乎又与经济转型有矛盾，新型城镇化强调的是投资拉动，经济转型的目标是以消费拉动，两方面如果要更好地结合在一起，可能还需要进一步完善政策。我认为新型城镇化会延续十年以上，随着政策的倾斜，相应配套设施的完善，会刺激一些产业轮动发展。

KangHaoPing:New urbanization indeed can promote the economy stabilises better off quickly.Now to see,Exports sustained downturn,Promote consumption also difficult to see,New type of urbanization is mainly investment,Once the implementation of effective soon.But the new urbanization seems to have contradictions and economic transformation,New type of urbanization emphasis on the investment,The economic transformation of the target is pulled,Two aspects together if you want to better,May also need to further improve policies.I think the new urbanization will last for more than ten years,As the policy tilt,The perfection of the relevant supporting facilities,Will stimulate the wheel to move some of the industry.

　　NBD：您认为哪些领域最有可能受益于城镇化？您是否参与了此次新型城镇化的投资？

NBD:What areas do you think are most likely to benefit from urbanization?Do you participate in the new urbanization of investment?

　　何震：从市场反应来看，最早反映出受益的是房地产行业，但是我认为房地产不一定真正会受益于城镇化，目前来看城镇化真正关注的还是中西部地区，城镇化建设需要在中西部地区的三四线地区修建房屋，这些房屋的利润肯定没有一线城市高。同时，新型城镇化抑制了农村人口往大中城市的转移，相应地将抑制大中城市的房地产消费，所以新型城镇化对房地产的影响应该是双重的，并没有想象中那么乐观。

HeZhen:Judging from the market reaction,The earliest reflects the benefit of the real estate industry,But I think the real estate is not necessarily true will benefit from urbanization,So far real concern of the urbanization is the central and western regions,Urbanization construction need to be in the Midwest region of three or four lines built houses,The house there is a line city high profits.At the same time,New urbanization suppresses the transfer of the rural population into cities,Accordingly the suppression of large and medium-sized cities real estate consumption,So the new urbanization impact on real estate should be double,And have no imagination in so optimistic.

　　我比较关注农业现代化方面和城市服务业。农业转移人口市民化是城镇化的起点，因此如何高效利用土地是新型城镇化过程中的必然环节。实现适度规模化经营，提高农业生产能力和效率，农机、种子、化肥等农资类的上市公司有望受益。同时，服务业与城市发展是高度同步的，这些集中起来的小城镇需要很多的配套服务，城市服务业在经济中的比重将得到快速提升。例如医院建设，小城镇必然会新建医院，专注于医院建设的上市公司就可以直接受益；城镇建设离不开环保处理，污水处理方面应该也是看点，同时，商业连锁超市等服务业也会相应受益。

I compare the attention of the agricultural modernization and urban service industry.Agricultural transfer of population urbanization is the starting point of the urbanization,So how to efficient use of land is inevitable in the process of urbanization new link.To realize the moderate scale management,To improve agricultural production capacity and efficiency,Agricultural machinery/seeds/Of chemical fertilizers and other agricultural listed companies is expected to benefit.At the same time,Services and city development is highly synchronization,The concentration of small cities and towns need a lot of supporting services,City proportion of services in the economy will get rapid ascension.Such as hospital construction,Small towns must be the new hospital,Focus on hospital construction of the listed companies can benefit directly;Urban construction depends on environmental protection,Should be read for sewage treatment,At the same time,Business service industries, such as supermarket chain will also benefit.

　　杨虎：我认为，城镇化虽然方向是好的，但现在最主要的问题是城镇化主题并没有聚焦，没有一个明确的导向，先发展哪个方面，如何入手都没有细化。谈到城镇化，第一反应就是房地产，然后一系列的产业都可以跟城镇化靠拢，这就太分散了，没有个实质的落脚点。因此，在没有形成聚焦且没有明确导向的前提下，我们对新型城镇化持观望的态度，也没有过多地参与。

YangHu:I think,Although urbanization direction is good,But now the main problem is that the urbanization theme did not focus,Without a clear direction,Which aspect of first development,How to proceed with no detail.When it comes to urbanization,The first reaction is real estate,Then a series of industry to urbanization,It's too scattered,Not a foothold essence.so,Without the formation of focus and under the premise of no clear direction,We have new urbanization a wait-and-see attitude,Also does not have too much to participate.

　　康浩平：A股这轮行情最初就是起源于城镇化主题，房地产、建材、铁路基建、水泥为代表的“新型城镇化”题材股领涨。从受益情况来看，中短期肯定首先是房地产、水泥、工程机械等行业，或借助新型城镇化和基建投资拉动而复苏。中长期来看，如果政策面能够处理好，汽车板块、家电板块、家居装潢等都将受益，影视、医药保健、餐饮旅游等公司也有望成为城镇化建设中消费领域的突出受益群体。我们目前也没有过多参与新型城镇化，我们认为它还只是一个概念，还需要更多具体政策的支持。

KangHaoPing:A shares this wheel market first is originated in the urbanization,The real estate/Building materials/The railway construction/As a representative of cement"New type of urbanization"Subject of led.Benefit from the situation,Short-term certainly first is real estate/cement/Engineering machinery and other industries,Or with the help of the new urbanization and infrastructure investment pull and recovery.For a long time to see,If the policy to deal with,The car plate/Home appliance plate/Home decor, etc will all benefit from,Film and television/Medical care/Food consumption in the construction of tourism urbanization etc. The company also is expected to become outstanding in the field of benefit groups.We now also does not have too much to participate in the new urbanization,We think it is only a concept,Also need to more specific policy support.