马骏

A fair

　　2012年，中国银行(601988,股吧)首席经济学家曹远征、中国社科院副院长李扬和笔者分别牵头的三个课题组就中国国家资产负债表问题发布了三份研究报告。《第一财经日报》编委徐以升等人将这三份资产负债表进行了比较，并特别关注到三个课题报告所估算的政府资产负债表中的净资产规模差异较大。

In 2012,,The bank of China(601988,guba)Chief economist CaoYuanZheng/The Chinese academy of LiYang and the vice President of the lead respectively the three group is China's national balance sheet released three reports.[The first financial daily]XuYiSheng editors, will this three copies of the balance sheet are compared,And pay special attention to three subject report the estimate of the net worth of the balance sheet size differences.

　　根据本课题组报告的估算，2010年政府净资产为38万亿元， 曹远征的报告对2008年政府净资产估算为17万亿元，李扬的报告对2010年政府净资产估算约为70万亿元（宽口径，包括了国土资源性资产和行政事业单位资产）和20万亿（窄口径，不包括国土资源性资产和行政事业单位资产）。本课题组估算的政府净资产高出曹远征版本和李扬窄口径版本的主要原因，是在资产方包括了政府持有的十几万亿的上市公司股份市值，远低于李扬宽口径版本的原因是基本上没有包括“国土资源性资产（尚未开发的矿产和未出售的土地）”。

According to our estimate of the report,In 2010 the government net assets for 38 trillion yuan, The report of the CaoYuanZheng 2008 government net assets estimate for 17 trillion yuan,LiYang report of 2010 the government estimated net worth about 70 trillion yuan(Wide caliber,Including the land resource assets and administrative institutions assets)And 20 trillion(Narrow diameter,Do not include land resource assets and administrative institutions assets).Our estimate of the net worth more than the government CaoYuanZheng version and LiYang narrow diameter version of the main reasons,Is in the asset side including the government hold tens of thousands of shares of a listed company market value,Far below LiYangKuan caliber version of the reason is basically not included"Land resource assets(Has not yet developed mineral and unsold land)".

　　关注此话题的人提出了两个十分有意义的问题：一是既然各个研究成果的估算结果都是政府净资产为正，为什么本课题组和曹远征的报告比李扬的报告更担心债务可持续性所面临的风险？换句话说，净资产为正是否可以成为判断是否存在债务风险的主要标准？二是如果将 50万亿的国土资源性资产和行政事业单位资产纳入资产负债表的统计，是否表明政府资产负债表的健康程度得到大幅度的提升？下面将分别讨论这两个问题。

Attention to this topic people put forward two very significant problems:One is that each research results of the estimation results are government is net assets,Why our and CaoYuanZheng report than LiYang report more worried about debt sustainability facing the risk?In other words,Net assets is whether can be judge whether there is the main standard debt risk?The second is if the 50 trillion land resource assets and administrative institutions assets into the balance sheet of the statistics,Is that the government balance sheet health degree get greatly improve?Below will discuss these two problems.

　　净资产为正能否作为判断没有债务风险的主要标准？

Net assets is no debt risk as a judgment whether the main standard?

　　许多人的直观结论是，如果政府资产负债表显示的净资产为正，就表明政府资产负债表是健康的。我们对这个问题的回答是，当前净资产是否为正，对判断当前资产负债表的健康程度有一定帮助，但不能作为判断是否存在债务风险的主要标准。尤其是对未来资产负债表健康程度的判断，更不能仅仅看当前的净资产是否为正。从财政理论角度和在债券市场上用来判断债务风险，有一系列其他更有意义的指标，具体讨论如下。

Many people's visual conclusion is,If the government balance sheet shows is net assets,It shows that the government balance sheet is healthy.We answer to the question is,The current net worth is whether or not,To judge the current balance sheet health degree have certain help,But not as a judge whether there is the main standard debt risk.Especially for the future balance sheet health degree of judgment,More can't just look at the current net worth is whether or not.From the theoretical perspective and in the bond market for judging the debt risk,A series of other more meaningful index,Discussed as follows.

　　第一，一个政府的净资产为正，未必表明该政府没有偿债风险。因为，在任何一个时点，是否存在偿债风险不光取决于净资产是否为正，还取决于资产的可变现能力和资产负债期限的匹配性。如果大量资产都是无法变现的固定资产，或者一旦集中抛售就会使资产大幅贬值，则即使在账面上有正的净资产也可能面临违约风险。这就是中国地方政府目前所面临的问题。我们的研究发现，中国地方政府的净资产为正，但金融净资产为负，表明地方政府虽然持有了许多基础设施和其他非经营性资产，但资产中可变现的部分（如持有的上市公司股票和现金）有限。在这种情况下，如果某些地方政府债务期限结构过分偏于短端，就可能出现违约。

The first,A government is the net assets,Not that the government did not credit risk.because,At any one time,Whether there is credit risk not only depends on whether the net assets is,Still depends on the asset can be converted into cash ability and the assets and liabilities of the matching of time.If a large number of assets can be realizable fixed assets,Once the concentration or selling can make the substantial depreciation of assets,The book even in a positive net assets may also face the risk of default.This is China's local governments are faced with the problem at present.Our study found,Local government is the net assets,But financial net worth is negative,Show that the local government while holding a lot of infrastructure and other non-business assets,But in part of the assets can be converted into cash(If the listed company hold stocks and cash)Co., LTD.,.In this case,If some local government debt maturity structure be too short end,May appear breach of contract.

　　俄罗斯就是“净资产为正”却发生违约的典型案例。俄罗斯是一个自然资源极其丰富的国家，按照俄罗斯科学院社会政治研究所的估算，俄罗斯已经探明的矿产储量占全世界的21%；该国学者在2006年估计这些资源的总价值大约为30万亿美元，几乎相当于其当年GDP总量的30倍。

Russia is"Net assets is"However, there was the typical cases of breach of contract.Russia is a natural resource is very rich countries,According to the Russian academy of sciences institute of social and political estimate,Russia has proven mineral reserves accounted for 21% of the world;The country's scholars estimated in 2006 of these resources worth about $30 trillion,It is almost equal to that of the total GDP 30 times.

　　这样一个有巨额“净资产”的国家竟然在1998年发生了对外债务违约，而违约事件的导火索恰恰又是国际大宗商品价格的下跌，导致经济停滞、财政收入下降、经常项目从盈余转为赤字。在求助于IMF而未能力挽狂澜之后，俄罗斯选择了外债和国内债务一起违约，并将卢布贬值。

Such a huge"Net assets"Country actually happened in 1998 foreign debt default,And event of default of the fuse and international commodity prices fall,Lead to economic stagnation/Fiscal revenue decline/Often project from surplus to deficit.In turn to IMF and not after the tide,Russia's choice of the foreign and domestic debt default together,And the rouble devaluation.

　　第二，即使一个国家政府的净资产为负，也未必表明该国当前一定会出现偿债危机。比如，如果一个国家可以持续用很低的利率获得融资，利息支出占其财政支出的比例因此可以控制在较低的水平，债务占GDP或财政收入的比重可以保持稳定，就可以不会出现偿付危机。最典型的例子是日本。日本政府的净资产长期为负，如2008年底日本中央政府的净负债为300万亿日元。即使如此，我们并没有看到日本发生国债危机，这当然要归功于日本国债购买者和持有者（其中90%以上为日本本国银行和居民）愿意以极低的利率来持有日本政府债券。

The second,Even if a country the government's net assets is negative,Also may not show that the country's current debt crisis will appear.Such as,If a nation can be sustained in a very low interest rates to get financing,Interest spending accounts for the proportion of its fiscal spending so can control in the lower level,Debt to GDP or the proportion of fiscal revenue can remain stable,Can not be solvency crisis.The most typical example is Japan.The Japanese government for a long time for negative net assets,Such as the end of 2008 the Japanese government net debt for 300 trillion yen.Even so,We haven't seen the Japanese national debt crisis happened,This of course should be attributed to the Japanese national debt buyers and holder(Including more than 90% of Japan's domestic Banks and residents)Would like to very low interest rates to hold the Japanese government bonds.

　　第三，以“当前净资产为正”为理由更难以得出未来没有债务风险的结论。我们研究中国国家资产负债表的目的，如果只是停留在判断今天中国政府是否会违约这个问题上是没有太大意义的 （谁都知道不会）。真正有意义的问题是，将目前的资产负债表作为一个基础或起点，预测和判断未来的资产负债表所面临的风险。

The third,to"The current net assets is positive"For reason more difficult to draw the conclusion of the future no debt risk.We study the purpose of China's national balance sheet,If only stay in China today judgment whether the government will default on this issue is not too big significance (Who know not).The real problem is meaningful,Will the current balance sheet as a base or starting point,Forecast and the balance sheet of the judging of the future of the risks they might face.

　　如果研究的关注点是未来债务风险，则当期净资产是否为正，只是影响未来偿债能力的诸多因素之一，更重要的因素在于未来负债是否会大幅上升。我们的结论是，虽然从短期来看中国政府并没有面临明显的债务风险，但中长期的风险绝对不容忽视。如果不改革，中国在2040~2050年将面临目前欧美式的债务风险绝对不是天方夜谭。

If research concerns is the future debt risk,Whether the current net worth is,Just affect future debt paying ability is one of the many factors,The more important factor in the debt will rise sharply.Our conclusion is,Although in the short term the Chinese government did not face significant debt risk,But the risk of long-term absolutely not allow to ignore.If not reform,China in 2040-2050 will be faced with at present the American debt risk absolutely not Arabian nights.

　　此外，经济增长的速度、利率的高低，也是决定长期债务可持续性的重要因素。相对一个基准情景，较低的经济增长率意味着较高的债务占GDP比重；较高的利率意味着较高的财政赤字，并会通过增加赤字融资来扩大债务风险 。但是，这些因素都无法在“当前净资产”这个指标内体现出来。

In addition,The speed of economic growth/The discretion of the interest rate,Also decided to long-term debt sustainability of the important factors.Relative to a reference scene,Lower economic growth means a higher debt as a share of GDP;Higher interest rates mean high fiscal deficit,And by increasing the deficit financing to expand debt risk .but,These factors are not in the"The current net worth"This indicator is reflected in.

　　第四，用来判断政府债务可持续性的最常用指标是债务占GDP的比重是否能够保持稳定，这已经是财政理论界和国际机构的共识。其他有用的指标包括债务与财政收入的比例、还本付息支出占财政收入（或支出）的比例等。这些指标背后的经济学含义是，一个政府只有维持健康的经济活动（GDP）及由此创造健康的财政收入，才能保持对债务的支付能力。

The fourth,Used to judge whether the government debt sustainability of the most commonly used indicator is the proportion of debt to GDP is able to remain stable,This is the financial theory and international agency agreement.Other useful indicators include debt and fiscal income proportion/Servicing spending accounts for fiscal revenue(Or spending), such as the proportion of the.These indicators behind the meaning is economics,A government only maintain a healthy economic activity(GDP)And thus create a healthy financial income,To keep on debt ability to pay.

　　将国土资源性资产等纳入资产负债表，债务风险就减少了吗？

Will land resource assets in the balance sheet,Debt risk is reduced?

　　一国政府是否面临偿债风险，主要应该看其财政收入能否足以偿债。那么，如果在政府资产负债表中资产方加入更多的资产，如政府持有的上市公司的股份、行政事业单位的资产、国土性资源，政府的财政收入能力和偿债能力是否就提高了呢？我们的结论是，有的资产可以增加政府财政能力，有的则不能。

One country whether the government faces the risk of debt,Main should see its financial income can be enough to sinking.so,If the government balance sheet ChanFang both add more assets,If the government hold shares of listed companies/The administrative institutions of the assets/Countries local resource,The fiscal revenue for the government ability and debt paying ability is improved it?Our conclusion is,Some assets can increase government financial ability,Others can't.

　　第一，政府持有的上市公司股份可以提高政府的偿债能力。在正常的财政收入（如税收收入）不足以满足支付责任、政府融资也面临困难的情况下，可以通过卖掉所持有的上市企业（和部分未上市但较容易找到买家的国有企业）股份来获得“私有化”收入，以作为应急的财政收入的补充。因此，这类可变现的资产越多，抵御债务风险的能力越强。

The first,The government hold shares of a listed company can improve the government's ability to service debt.In the normal financial income(Such as revenue)Not enough to meet the payment responsibility/The government financing also are faced with a difficult situation,Can sell through held by listed enterprise(And some not yet on the market but it was easier to find buyers of state-owned enterprise)Shares to get"privatization"income,As emergency financial income supplement.so,This kind of realizable assets more,Against the risk of debt ability is stronger.

　　但值得注意的是，以上结论的强弱取决于这些上市国有企业是否已经向政府上缴红利。如果它们在股权被出售之前已经向政府每年足额上缴了红利，则一次性向私营部门出售这些股权后，政府虽然会获得一次性变现收入，但今后的财政收入将减少（因为这些股份的未来红利将归私营部门投资者所有）。

But it is important to note that,The strength of the above conclusion depends on whether the listed state-owned enterprises have to turn over to the government bonus.If they are in stock before it is sold to the government has paid dividends in a year,The one-time to the private sector after sell these shares,Although the government has will be a one-time cash income,But the future fiscal revenue will be reduced(Because the shares future dividends will return to the private sector all investors).

　　第二，行政事业单位的资产，除少数闲置的以外，大多数不能提高政府的偿债能力。政府、学校、公立医院的大楼，多数是不能卖的，否则政府到哪里去办公，学生到哪里上学？

The second,The administrative institutions of the assets,In addition to a few other than idle,Most can not improve the government's ability to service debt.The government/The school/Public hospital building,Most is not to sell,Otherwise the government to where go to office,Where students go to school?

　　第三，对已经探明储量和政府目前持有的大部分自然资源（土地和矿产品），无论是否纳入资产负债表中，并不改变政府财政收入的能力，因此也不改变政府偿债能力。因为中国政府（中央和地方）在2011年已经从土地出让收入和其他土地和国有资源有偿使用收入中得到了约3万亿元的收入，这些自然资源的存在是政府在未来维持出让土地和采矿权收入的条件，并不能提升财政收入的能力（财政收入占GDP的比重）。

The third,To have proven reserves and government currently hold most of the natural resources(Land and minerals),Whether or not included in the balance sheet,Don't change the ability of government revenue,So don't change of government debt paying ability.Because the Chinese government(The central and local)In the 2011 years have from land transfer income and other state-owned land and for use of resources in the income received some income of 3 trillion yuan,These natural resources are the government in the future to maintain land and mining conditions of income,And can not improve the ability of financial income(The proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP).

　　第四，如果突然发现了新的、今后开采后可获得盈利的自然资源，那就可能提升政府未来的财政收入能力和偿债能力。

The fourth,If suddenly found new/The future can get profit after mining of natural resources,That could enhance the government's future financial income ability and debt paying ability.

　　综上所述，我们的结论是，并不会因为某一份资产负债表扩大口径，比另外一份多显示了50万亿元的自然资源性资产和行政事业单位资产，政府未来的财政收入能力和未来偿债能力就会有提高。

To sum up,Our conclusion is,Will not because a a balance sheet to expand caliber,A more than the other shows that 50 trillion yuan of natural resource assets and administrative institutions assets,The government of the future financial income ability and future debt paying ability will have to improve.

　　从“资产与负债口径应该匹配”的角度，也易于理解为什么“口径”变化导致的净资产变化经常有很大的误导性。假设通过扩大“资产”的口径，放入更多的资产（如将未来有收益的某些资产的现金流折现成现值，将其价值视为“资产”的当前估值），从而提升净资产，与此同时，就应该将许多未来的支出责任的现值算成“负债”，扩大“负债”口径。如果只将“或有资产”纳入，而不将“或有负债”纳入资产负债表，就会人为地高估净资产，造成资产负债表十分健康的假象。

from"Assets and liabilities diameter should be matching"Angle,Also easy to understand why"caliber"Changes in net assets change often have a lot of misleading.Hypothesis by expanding"assets"The calibre of the,In the more assets(If the future earning some assets ready cash flow discount value,As the value"assets"Current valuation),So as to enhance the net assets,meanwhile,It should be many future spending is the present value of the liability into"liabilities",expand"liabilities"caliber.If will only"Or assets"into,And will not"Contingent liabilities"Included in the balance sheet,Will artificially overvalued equity,Cause the balance sheet is the illusion of good health.

　　将大量自然资源放进资产负债表的另一个风险是其价格的不确定性。一般来说，一个国家出现偿债危机的时候，经常也是经济危机的时候，而经济危机中大宗商品的价格会暴跌，许多矿业企业都会面临亏损，用此时的矿业企业盈利来估计当时的资源价值就比正常情况下要低得多，有时候甚至会变得一文不值。也就是说，在一个国家正急需变现自然资源以偿债的时候，往往是自然资源最不值钱的时候。因此，用正常经济条件下的价格来估计自然资源的“资产价格”往往会导致对资产负债表健康程度的高估。

Will a lot of natural resources in the balance sheet another risk is the uncertainty of the price.Generally speaking,A country appear debt crisis,It is also often economic crisis,But the economic crisis in the commodity price will collapse,Many mining enterprise will face losses,With the mining enterprise profit to estimate the resources value than normal circumstances are much lower,Sometimes even become worthless.that,In a country is in urgent need of realizable natural resources to the debt,Often is the natural resources is not the most valuable time.so,Use normal economic conditions to estimate the price of natural resources"Asset prices"Often leads to the balance sheet health degree of overvalued.

　　我们认为，关心国家资产负债表的人应该用更多的精力去研究未来债务负担上升的原因和前景，如何提高资产的可变现能力（如将未上市的国有企业上市），如何增加公共部门收入的能力（比如提高退休年龄以增加养老金体系的缴费收入，要求机关事业单位职工对养老金缴费，建立强制性的长期护理保险体制，改革国企体制以提高长期回报率等），如何控制支出增长（如降低机关事业单位养老金的替代率，建立长期护理的商业保险体制）。对这些问题的研究比仅仅着眼于净资产的概念更有意义。

We think,Concerned about national balance sheet should be more interested in the future to study the cause of the rising debt burden and prospect,How to improve the ability of assets can be converted into cash(If not listed state-owned enterprises listed),How to increase the ability of public sector income(Such as raising the retirement age in order to increase the pension system of pay cost income,Request authority institution staff to pension pay cost,Establish mandatory long-term care insurance system,State-owned enterprises reform system in order to improve the long-term rate of return, etc),How to control spending growth(Such as the lower authority institution pension replacement ratio,Establish long-term care business insurance system).To these questions research focuses on the concept of net assets than just more meaningful.

　　（作者系德意志银行大中华区首席经济学家。本文摘自《中国国家资产负债表研究》序言。）getty图

(The author is deutsche bank chief economist in the greater China region.This paper from[China's national balance sheet research]preface.)Getty diagram