宏观经济、改革红利、货币、新型城镇化、卫星导航、智慧城市等九大积极因素助力A股反转，个股疯涨如牛市

macroeconomic/Reform bonus/currency/New urbanization/Satellite navigation/Wisdom city nine positive factors such as power a-share reversal,Stocks soaring like a bull market

　　理财周报记者 张伟贤/广州报道

Financial weekly reporter ZhangWeiXian/guangzhou reported

　　第一根中阴线终于出现了。

The first roots Yin line finally appeared.

　　1月11日，周五，沪指下跌40.66点，是本轮行情大涨346点以来的第一根中阴线。狂热的多头情绪显然在降温，但从更长的周期来看，很多人认为A股正显现出前所未有的机会。

On January 11,,On Friday,Boomed down 40.66 points,Is this quotation of 346 points since the first in the root of Yin line.Crazy long mood obviously in cooling,But in the longer period to see,Many people think that A share is now showing an unprecedented opportunity.

　　这些机会，来自于诸多的积极因素。

These opportunities,From many positive factors.

　　从宏观经济、改革红利和货币，再到新型城镇化、产业规划、卫星导航、智慧城市和高送转。

From the macro economic/Dividends and currency reform,To the new urbanization/Industry planning/Satellite navigation/Wisdom city and high to turn.

　　从国内到国际，从宏观到微观。

From domestic to international,From macroscopical to microcosmic.

　　刚过去的2012月12月，沪指大涨14.6%。进入2012年1月，沪指继续开门红。上周，虽然大盘有所调整，但众多题材表现活跃，个股全面开花。

Last December 2012 month,Rose 14.6% boomed.In January 2012,Boomed continue to make a good beginning.Last week,Although the market change,But many active subject,Stocks full flowering.

　　这背后，是越来越多的积极因素，支撑着A股不断前行。

Behind this,Is more and more positive factors,Support the A shares to go on.

　　越来越多迹象表明，A股的行情还没那么快结束。短线调整过后，仍将继续向好。

More and more signs,A share of the market not so fast over.Short after adjustment,Will continue to better off.

　　这不是一个简单的反弹。

This is not a simple rebound.

　　这或是一个超过2010年7月至11月，媲美2008年11月至2009年7月的超级行情。

This or a more than July and November 2010,Rival in November 2008 to July 2009 super market.

　　后续改革红利机会

Subsequent reform bonus opportunity

　　近日，国家统计局陆续发布了一系列2012年12月的宏观经济数据。

recently,The national bureau of statistics has issued a series of December 2012 macroeconomic data.

　　1月11日的外贸数据显示，去年12月出口同比增幅从11月的2.9%升至14.1%，12月进口同比增幅从11月的0.0%升至6.0%，均大幅超出市场预期。此前公布PMI也连续三月高于荣枯线。

On January 11, foreign trade data display,Last December the export the year-on-year growth rate from 2.9% to 14.1% in November,December import the year-on-year growth rate from 0.0% to 6.0% in November,Significantly more than the market expected.Previously published PMI also continuous march higher than vicissitude line.

　　这是宏观经济出现较强反弹的有力信号。

This is the macro economic appear strong rebound strong signal.

　　“经济继续复苏的趋势。”中金公司彭文生指出。

"The economy continues to recovery trend."Cicc PengWenSheng pointed out.

　　宏观经济的复苏，无疑为A股反弹注入强心针。地产、家电等作为早周期行业，则更是春江水暖鸭先知。

The macro economic recovery,No doubt for A shares bounced into the shot.Real estate/Home electrical appliances industry as early period,Is called plumbing duck prophet.

　　据统计，自2012年12月4月反弹开始到上周四，地产板块平均涨幅为22%，而家电板块的涨幅更是达到38.2%，列同期所有板块之首。

According to the statistics,Since December 2012 to April started to rebound on Thursday,Real estate plate an average increase of 22%,And home appliance plate or is up to 38.2%,List all of the plate.

　　在宏观经济复苏的前提下，改革红利和股市的资金供给，则是股市反弹的基础。

In the premise of macro economic recovery,Reform dividend and stock market supply of capital,Is the basis of stock market rebound.

　　首先是针对股市的制度改革。自郭树清上任以来，从投资者到融资者、上市公司治理等角度进行了一系列的制度建设，包括IPO改革、退市制度、降低交易日、引导长线资金入市、鼓励上市公司分红等

The first is in the stock market system reform.Since GuoShuQing since taking office,From the investor to the issuer/Aspects of governance of listed company conducted a series of system construction,Including IPO reform/Delisted system/Reduce trading day/Lead long term capital listed/Encourage the listed company share out bonus, etc

　　业内人士认为，这些制度改革为A股市场长期向好打下基础。

The personage inside course of study thinks,The system reform of a-share market is going well for A long time to lay the foundation.

　　其次，在经济的各个领域，改革红利随处可见。

secondly,In the economic fields,Reform bonus can be seen everywhere.

　　十八大报告指出，要“健全现代市场体系，加快改革财税体制，深化金融体制改革，完善金融监管，推进金融创新，维护金融稳定。”

Eighteen pointed out in the report,to"Improve the modern market system,Speed up the reform of the fiscal and taxation system,Deepening the reform of the financial system,Perfect financial supervision,Financial innovation,Maintaining financial stability."

　　以金融改革为例。

To financial reform as an example.

　　2012月9月17日，央行发布《金融业发展和改革“十二五”规划》，明确金融改革的目标是金融结构调整取得明显进展，直接融资占社会融资规模比重显著提高。市场在金融资源配置中的基础性作用进一步增强，利率市场化改革取得明显进展，人民币汇率形成机制进一步完善，人民币资本项目可兑换逐步实现，多层次金融市场体系进一步完善。

2012 on September 17,,The central bank issued[The financial industry development and reform"1025"planning],Clear financial reform goal is financial structure adjustment achieved significant progress,Direct financing accounted for the proportion of social financing scale increased significantly.The market in the allocation of financial resources to further strengthen the basic role,Interest rate marketization reform made obvious progress,The RMB exchange rate mechanism to further improve,RMB capital account convertibility gradually realize,Multi-level financial market system to further improve.

　　银行、保险和券商等金融行业直接受惠。

The bank/Insurance brokers and financial industry benefit directly.

　　申银万国孙婷认为，“资产市场的改革将给券商带来战略性投资机会。券商将在三个方向获得重大发展：一是资产管理业务；二是资本中介借贷业务；三是做市商和类做市商业务。”

ShenYin WanGuoSun Christine thought,"Asset market reform will give brokers bring strategic investment opportunities.Brokers will be in three directions a significant development:One is the asset management business;The second is capital intermediary lending business;The third is marketmaker and class marketmaker business."

　　金融股在去年9月下旬以来的表现，证实了上述观点。

In September last year financial since late performance,Confirm the above viewpoint.

　　自9月下旬开始，以银行业代表的金融行业便开始了牛市征程。工商银行(601398,股吧)从3.6元涨至1月7日的4.25元，涨幅达18%。民生银行(600016,股吧)更从5.39元涨至8.35元，涨幅高达55%。整个银行板块的涨幅超过25%。

Since late September start,In the banking industry on behalf of the financial industry began bull market journey.Industrial and commercial bank of(601398,guba)Rose to 3.6 yuan from January 7, 4.25 yuan,Increased by 18%.Minsheng bank(600016,guba)More from 5.39 yuan rose to 8.35 yuan,Or as high as 55%.The bank plate rose more than 25%.

　　此外，在12月4日开始到上周的反弹中，小盘券商股国海证券(000750,股吧)和保险股新华保险(601336,股吧)，涨幅更分别达到106%和76%。

In addition,On December 4, began to rebound in the last week,The small dish stock brokers GuoHai securities(000750,guba)Xinhua insurance and insurance stocks(601336,guba),More increase 106% and 76% respectively.

　　“后续仍会有其他改革红利，如土地改革、户籍改革等，A股市场中相关股票都有机会。”上海名禹资产董事长王益聪表示。

"The follow-up there will still be other reforms bonus,Such as land reform/Reform of the household registration, etc,A-share market related stock has opportunity."Shanghai name yu assets WangYiCong said the chairman of the board.

　　行情的另外一个基础，则是货币。

Quotation of another base,Is monetary.

　　首先，是以汇金增持和QFII大举抄底为代表的资金流入。

First of all,Huijin is increasing and QFII massive copy the bottom as a representative of capital inflows.

　　1月8日工商银行发布的公告显示，去年四季度汇金累计增持工行股票2.07亿股，目前汇金占工行总股本的35.46%。

January 8, issued by the commercial bank announcement,Last year, four quarter huijin total icbc around 207 million shares,Now huijin accounted for 35.46% of the total equity of the icbc.

　　这已是汇金连续第五个季度增持银行股，为第二大力度季度增持。持续的增持也使银行的股价节节向上。

This is huijin fifth consecutive quarter increasing bank shares,For the second big strength increasing quarter.Continuous increasing also make bank shares hand over hand.

　　分析人士认为，增持显示了汇金对银行股的信心，同时增加了资金做多的信心。

Analysts believe that,Increasing shows huijin to bank shares confidence,At the same time increase the funds to do more confidence.

　　另一个积极做多的信号，则来自QFII。

Another positive do many signal,From the QFII.

　　2012年QFII审批速度明显加快，截至11月底，已有199家境外机构获批QFII资格，QFII总数接近200家，全部QFII投资额度合计335.68亿美元。同时，2012年11月14日，证监会宣布再增加2000亿元的RQFII投资额度，至此，试点总额度达到2700亿元人民币。

In 2012, speeding up the QFII approval rate,By the end of November,For 199 overseas institutions approved QFII qualification,QFII a total of nearly 200,All the QFII investment quota amount to 33.568 billion dollars.At the same time,On November 14, 2012,Securities regulatory commission announced that an additional 200 billion yuan RQFII investment quota,So far,Pilot ZongEDu amounted to 270 billion yuan RMB.

　　瑞银证券分析师陈李汪超认为，“QFII审核开放之后主动型资金会大量流入，随后被动型资金也会跟随，对市场有正面推动作用。”

Ubs securities analysts ChenLi WangChao think,"QFII audit after open active model fund will be a large number of inflow,Then passive money will follow,A positive role in the market."

　　从货币供应来看，同样值得乐观。

See from the money supply,Also worth optimistic.

　　根据央行1月10日发布的数据显示，2012年全年我国人民币贷款增加8.20万亿元，同比多增7320亿元。其中，2012年12月的广义货币(M2)余额为97.42万亿元，同比增长13.8%。

According to the central bank 1 October, data released by the display,In year 2012, an increase of 8.2 trillion yuan RMB loans,Year-on-year increase more than 732 billion yuan.the,December 2012 m2(M2)Balance is 97.42 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 13.8%.

　　“随着A股赚钱效应的扩大，会有越来越多的资金从回流到股市。”深圳一位私募负责人表示，“从资金层面来看，A股其实并不缺钱。”

"With the enlargement of A share money effect,There will be more and more money from back into the stock market."Shenzhen a private person in charge said,"From the capital level,A shares is not lack of money."

　　

主题投资接力炒作 Theme investment relay hype

　　十八大报告明确提出，坚持走中国特色新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化道路。

Put forward the eighteenth big reports,Adhere to the industrialization with Chinese characteristics/information/urbanization/Modernization of agriculture.

　　从投资到消费，新型城镇化可以拉动经济增长的两驾马车，更涉及到房地产、轨道交通、节能环保、医疗服务、文化传媒等众多行业。

From investment to consumption,The new urbanization can stimulate economic growth two carriages,The more involved in real estate/Rail transit/Energy conservation and environmental protection/Medical service/Culture media, and many other industries.

　　而新型城镇化，无疑是本轮反弹行情最大的投资主题。

And the new urbanization,This is no doubt rallies the biggest investment theme.

　　从房地产，到建筑建材、节能环保、文化传媒，新型城镇化大主题下的板块涨幅一浪接一浪。

From real estate,To building materials/Energy conservation and environmental protection/Culture media,The new urbanization themes of the plate or a wave after wave.

　　根据统计发现，自2012年12月4日反弹至今，涨幅居前的个股过半数与城镇化相关，其中联创节能(300343,股吧)、秦岭水泥(600217,股吧)、达刚路机(300103,股吧)、华数传媒(000156,股吧)等涨幅均已翻倍。

According to statistics found that,Since December 4, 2012 rebound so far,Or the first half of the stocks and urbanization related,The energy conservation areas(300343,guba)/Qinling cement(600217,guba)/Reach just road machine(300103,guba)/HuaShu media(000156,guba)Increase, etc have been doubled.

　　中金公司研究指出，看好现有城市人口定居型需求和流动人口市民化需求带来的投资机会。在市场需求提升及政策护航的双重推动下，城市轨道交通、建筑装饰、园林绿化、建筑节能、废水治理、固废处理及涵盖智慧金融、智能交通、安防、医疗信息化、电子政府的智慧城市，及医疗保健、文化传媒等行业将是推荐的首选。

Cicc research points out,Existing urban population has settled type needs and floating population urbanization needs bring investment opportunities.In the market promotion and policy escort double push down,Urban rail transit/Architectural decoration/landscape/Building energy saving/Wastewater treatment/Solid waste treatment and covers financial wisdom/Intelligent transportation/security/Medical information/Electronic government wisdom city,And medical care/Culture media industries will be the first choice of recommended.

　　另一个动辄引爆行业大涨的主题，则是各产业的“十二五”规划细则。

Another frequently detonate industry of theme,Is the industry"1025"Planning rules.

　　上述的银行股，就是从央行发布《金融业发展和改革“十二五”规划》之后便扶摇直上。

The above bank shares,From the central bank is released[The financial industry development and reform"1025"planning]After they soar.

　　上周还有另一个鲜活的例证。

Last week there is another fresh example.

　　1月6日，国务院发布关于印发《生物产业发展规划》的通知，并提出我国的生物医药产业中长期目标：到2015年,我国生物产业形成特色鲜明的产业发展能力，对经济社会发展的贡献作用显著增强，在全球产业竞争格局中占据有利位置。到2020年，生物产业发展成为国民经济的支柱产业。

On January 6,,Promulgated by the state council on printing and distributing[Biological industry development planning]notice,And puts forward the biological medicine industry long-term goals:By 2015,Biological industry in our country formed distinctive characteristics of industry development ability,In economic and social development and contribution to the enhancement effect significantly,In the global industrial competition pole position.By 2020,Biological industry development become the pillar industry of national economy.

　　1月7日开盘后，生物医药近十个公司几乎全线涨停，其他医药股也跟随大涨。

On January 7th after opening,Biological medicine nearly ten company almost all harden,Other pharmaceutical shares rose followed.

　　此后数日，龙头股莱茵生物(002166,股吧)继续涨停。截至1月10日，莱茵生物5天4涨停，涨幅高达。

After a few days,The main item stock Rhine biological(002166,guba)Continue to harden.By 1 October,,Rhine biological 5 days and harden,Rise as high as.

　　各产业“十二五”规划的威力可见一斑。

Each industry"1025"The power of planning is obvious.

　　“"十二五"产业规划细则已经出得差不多了，随着两会的临近，接下来可能还会有。”上海名禹资产董事长王益聪表示，“可重点关注其他战略新兴产业规划的细则。”

""1025"Industry planning rules have been out much,With the approach of the CPPCC,Then may also have."Shanghai name yu assets WangYiCong said the chairman of the board,"Can focus on other strategic emerging industry planning rules."

　　2012年5月30日国务院发布《“十二五”国家战略性新兴产业发展规划》中，指出了节能环保、新一代信息技术、生物、高端装备制造、新能源、新材料和新能源汽车等七大产业的发展的重点方向。随后陆续公布了各战略新兴产业的具体规划，成为了市场追逐做多的又一个积极因素。

May 30, 2012 issued by the state council["1025"National strategic emerging industry development planning]in,Points out that the energy conservation and environmental protection/A new generation of information technology/biological/High-end equipment manufacturing/New energy/The new material and new energy automobiles seven big industry development the important direction.Then released in the strategic emerging industry specific planning,Become the market chase do many another positive factor.

　　卫星导航、智慧城市和高送转，则是近两周以来持续活跃的另外几个主题机会。

Satellite navigation/Wisdom city and high to turn,It is nearly two weeks of continuous active in several other theme opportunity.

　　近日，国家北斗卫星导航系统正式服务，业内预测到2015年行业产值将超过2000亿元，相关概念股掀起了一轮暴涨。

recently,National beidou satellite navigation system formal service,The forecast to 2015 industry output value of more than 200 billion yuan,A related concept stock a boom.

　　龙头股北斗星通(002151,股吧)自2012年12月25日至2013年1月10日之间，11个交易日内收获7个涨停板，从17.08元暴涨至37.75元，涨幅超过121%，令人乍舌。

The main item stock dipper pass(002151,guba)Since December 25, 2012 to 2013 between January 10,11 trading days harvest seven harden board,Jump from 17.08 yuan to 37.75 yuan,Rose more than 121%,Is suddenly tongue.

　　数据显示，在这期间北斗星通7次登上龙虎榜，买卖席位清一色为游资。其中，国泰君安上海打浦路证券营业部、申银万国上海陆家嘴(600663,股吧)环路证券营业部和光大证券(601788,股吧)深圳金田路证券营业部在这期间分别上榜4次,5次和4次；成交金额均过亿元，分别为2.19亿、1.97亿和1.83亿，是炒作北斗星通的主力军。

Data display,During this period the plough through seven times the billboard,Buying and selling all seats for hot money.the,Guotai junan Shanghai da pu road securities sales department/ShenYin universal Shanghai lujiazui(600663,guba)Loop of the securities business and everbright securities(601788,guba)Shenzhen mei gold of the securities business in this period were list four times,Five times and 4 times;Clinch a deal amount is over one hundred million yuan,Respectively for 219 million/197 million and 183 million,Is the main force of hype dipper pass.

　　上周另一个主题——智慧城市同样疯狂。

Last week, another theme - intelligent city also crazy.

　　1月10日，第三届中国智慧城市大会召开。国家测绘地理信息局局长徐德明日前表示，我国将加快推动数字城市向智慧城市发展，争取一季度出台智慧城市建设技术指南。

January 10,,The third session of Chinese wisdom city meeting.National surveying and mapping geographic information bureau director xu demin first said on Monday,China will speed up the digital city to promote urban development wisdom,For the quarter on wisdom city construction technical guidelines.

　　相关股票闻风井喷。

The relevant stock blowout.

　　二六三(002467,股吧)、东软载波(300183,股吧)、三五互联(300051,股吧)的众多受益股连续涨停，其中二六三从上周二至上周五连续4涨停，遭到资金疯抢。

The 263(002467,guba)/Neusoft carrier(300183,guba)/35 Internet(300051,guba)Many of the benefit share continuous harden,Which matters re-understanding on Friday last Tuesday first four consecutive harden,The money was mad.

　　东方证券通信行业首席分析师周军同样看好智慧城市主题，认为“深度城镇化的推进和试点将保证智慧城市投资的高景气度，建议关注智能交通、医疗信息化和安防等细分子行业。”

Orient securities chief analyst ZhouJun communication industry has the same wisdom city theme,think"Depth of the propulsion of urbanization and pilot will ensure wisdom city investment boom of high,Suggestions focus on intelligent transportation/Medical information and security etc fine molecular industry."

　　最后是高送转预期个股的持续表现。

The last is high to turn expected stocks continue to show.

　　有高送转潜力联创节能、凯利泰(300326,股吧)和金卡股份(300349,股吧)等，近期都遭到游资的爆炒，其中联创节能自2012年12月4日至2013年1月7日，涨幅高达174%，为两市第一牛股；1月11日公布10送10派2元预案的海达股份(300320,股吧)，开盘即被巨单封死涨停板。

A high potential to turn our energy saving/Kelly Thai(300326,guba)And gold shares(300349,guba)etc,Recently have been idle fund's sauteed,The energy conservation areas since December 4, 2012 to jan. 7, 2013,Or as high as 174%,For two city the first winners;On January 11, published ten sent 10 send 2 yuan plan of haida shares(300320,guba),Opening is giant single alternately raising limit.

　　

外国股市近新高 Foreign stock market near high

　　1月2日，美国众议院通过了避免财政悬崖的法案，财政悬崖所引发的争论暂时告一段落。

On January 2,,The United States house of representatives passed the bill to avoid fiscal cliff,Financial cliff the argument come to an end temporarily.

　　欧美股市闻风大涨。道琼斯收盘报13412.55点，大涨2.35%，重新回去高位附近。1月10日，受美国去年12月份谘商会就业趋势指数升至四年来新高刺激，道琼斯指数再涨0.6%，最高上摸13478.20点，距2007年10月金融海啸前的历史最高位14198.10点仅仅720点即5.3%的涨幅。

Europe and the United States of the stock market.The dow Jones closing to 13412.55 points,Rose 2.35%,Went back to near the high.January 10,,The United States by the chamber of commerce in December employment trend index rose to four years high stimulation,The dow Jones industrial average rose 0.6% again,The highest touch 13478.20 points,From October 2007 financial tsunami before the highest level 14198.10 point only 720 points or 5.3% increase.

　　欧元区1月投资者信心连续第五个月改善英国、德国等欧洲主要股指，均已纷纷涨到历史高位附近。

The eurozone January fifth consecutive month of investor confidence to improve English/Germany and other European main stock index,All have been up to history near high.

　　海外一片歌舞升平。

Overseas a piece of musical singer.

　　国信证券崔嵘认为。“2013年欧美经济增长将呈现前低后高的态势，风险主要集中在Q1，包括美国财政悬崖解决议案的揭晓、西班牙和意大利的政治风险以及欧元区银行单一监管问题，Q1可能出现经济增速的明显放缓，H2经济增长将呈现周期性的复苏。”

Securities held CuiRong think."In 2013, Europe and the United States economic growth will present low before high trend,Risk mainly concentrated in the 25th,Including the United States financial cliff solve the bill announced/Spain and Italy's political risk in the eurozone and a single bank regulation,The 25th May appear obvious slow economic growth,H2 economic growth will present a cyclical recovery."

　　崔嵘还指出，“财政悬崖不改美国经济周期向上。2013年受房地产复苏、去杠杆即将结束和企业投资支出可能增长三点因素的推动，美国经济将出现周期性向上。”

CuiRong also pointed out that,"Financial cliff do not change the economic cycle upward.By 2013 the real estate recovery/To leverage is coming to an end and enterprise investment spending three factors may increase to promote,The U.S. economy will appear periodic upward."