新年伊始，照例问，这是关键的转折之年吗？全球经济会变好吗？

At the beginning of the New Year,Routinely ask,This is the key turning point of the year?The global economy will be better?

　　有一点确定无疑，世界经济仍然处于通往再平衡的颠簸旅程中。自2008年金融危机以来，全球经济进入了漫长的冬天。每年大家都期盼有转暖的迹象，但希望恰如塞缪尔·贝克特的“戈多先生”一样，始终未现真身。

Have a certain,The world economy is still in a way to rebalance the bumpy journey.Since the 2008 years since the financial crisis,The global economy has entered a long winter.Every year we are looking forward to have signs of warmer,But I hope just as Samuel beckett's"Godot Sir"as,Never now scientist.

　　五年的颠簸，有人读到贪婪，有人读到政治，有人读到阴谋，也有人体悟人性……

Five years of turbulence,Read to greed,Read to politics,Read to the plot,Some understanding of human nature...

　　著名华人导演李安的新作《少年派的奇幻漂流》近期热映。某种意义上，金融海啸后，我们的问题和男主角少年派面临的相似，“何时才能度过这场灾难？如何和捉摸不定的老虎共处？”

Famous Chinese director ang lee's new[Young pie fantasy drift]The recent hot reflects.A sense,Financial tsunami after,Our problems and actor young pie face similar,"When will we have the disaster?How to and elusive in the tiger?"

　　2013年，巨额的政府债务依然是看得见的“老虎”之一，主要发达国家的公共债务在GDP中的平均占比已高达110%。美国财政去杠杆化过程依然任重道远；欧洲各国仍处于主权债务危机之中，陷入 “危机—紧缩—衰退—危机”的紧缩循环，各国在解决方案上仍未有共识。某种意义上，欧债危机已然成为各利益相关方的“政治博弈”；日本的债务困局也开始引起市场关注，虽然主要由日本境内居民持有，但其债务比例已超过GDP的200%，远高于目前身处债务危机的“欧猪国家”。

In 2013,,Huge government debt is still visible"The tiger"of,The main developed countries public debt in GDP accounted for an average than already was as high as 110%.The United States financial de-leveraging process still shoulder heavy responsibilities;European countries are still in a sovereign debt crisis,into "Crisis - crunch - recession - crisis"Tightening cycle,Countries in the solutions is still no consensus.A sense,The debt crisis has become each stakeholder"Political game";Japan's debt this began to cause market focus,Although mainly by the Japanese domestic residents holding,But the debt ratio has more than 200% of GDP,Far higher than the current location of the debt crisis"The pig countries".

　　在巨额债务阴影下，实现增长是个两难。诚如IMF总裁拉加德所言：“没有增长很难降低公共债务，但在巨额债务拖累下很难实现加速增长。”

In the huge debt shadow,Economic growth is a dilemma.As the IMF chief raja DE said:"No growth it is difficult to reduce public debt,But in huge encumbered with debts is very difficult to achieve accelerated growth."

　　回到中国，国内的再平衡实际上是一个增长模式转变的问题。“没有水分的增长”不仅是统计数据问题，更是指有效率、有质量、可持续的增长。这也意味着中国将告别高速的经济增长，转而回归常态。 在此情况下，宏观调控也需要加强和改善，以防范经济过度减速，避免对就业市场的冲击。

Come back to China,Domestic rebalance is actually a growth pattern transformation problem."No moisture growth"Is not only a statistical data problem,Is refers to the efficient/quality/Sustainable growth.This also means that China will say goodbye to high-speed economic growth,To return to normal. In this case,The macroeconomic regulation and control also need to strengthen and improve,In order to guard against the economic excessive reduction,To avoid the impact of the job market.

　　无论是全球还是中国，通往再平衡的旅程还会继续颠簸。

Whether it's the world or China,To rebalance journey will continue to bump.

　　李安在谈《少年派的奇幻漂流》时说：“旅程是较抽象的东西，信仰对人生很重要，我要讲的其实是人性。”

Ang lee talked about[Young pie fantasy drift]said:"The journey is the abstract things,Faith of life is very important,I want to tell you is actually the human nature."

　　人性是什么？

Humanity is what?

　　孟子的观点是 “人性本善”。《旧制度和大革命》的作者托克维尔说： “在这个世界上，只有一个伟大的目标值得人们去努力，这就是人类的善。”“善”决定了人既不是经济动物和政治动物，也不是身体和欲望的简单叠加。

Mencius's view is "The goodness".[The old system and revolution]Author tocqueville said: "In this world,Only a great aim is worth people to efforts,It is human good.""good"The decision is not economic animals and political animal,Is not the simple sum of body and desire.

　　再回到文章开头，今年我们有机会摆脱经济危机，塑造更美好的世界吗？

Back to the opening line of this article,This year we have the chance to get rid of the economic crisis,Create a more beautiful world?

　　这一期，我们的《全球经济展望和投资策略》汇集了来自全球30多位金融思想家与读者一起分享他们的“水晶球”。当然，现实永远比沙盘推演来得复杂，你不能从一堆“应该是”中推断出“是”，也不能从一堆“是”中得出“应该是”。

This period,our[Global economic prospects and investment strategy]Collected from all over the world more than 30 financial thinker and readers share their own"Crystal ball".Of course,Reality is always better than more complicated tactical evaluations,You can't from a heap of"Should be"infer"is",Also can't from a heap of"is"that"Should be".

　　影片《少年派的奇幻漂流》折射了一个肯定的隐喻，无论旅途如何艰难，善用理性和坚持信念就可以抵达新生的彼岸。

The film[Young pie fantasy drift]Refraction a certain metaphor,No matter how difficult the journey,Make the best use of reason and adhere to the faith will reach the other side of the new.

　　2013年的钟声已经敲响，让我们一起向新年许愿。今年，我们在《陆家嘴(600663,股吧)》，关心金融，也关心人类。

2013 iwd,Let's make a vow to the New Year.This year,We are[lujiazui(600663,guba)],Concerned about financial,Also care about human.