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场外资金跑步入场 金融股领衔逼空--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2013-01-15

  金融股领衔的逼空行情再度上演。1月14日,经过当天早盘短时间的震荡之后,沪深两市再度急速拉高,上证指数更再现逾60点的单日长阳,一举收复2300点关口,并创下近七个月以来的收市新高。

Led financial force empty quotation rerun.On January 14,,After the morning session for a short period of time after the shock,Shanghai and shenzhen two cities rapid pitch up again,The Shanghai index more reproduce more than sixty points of changyang county single day,Every recovered 2300 point passes,And a nearly seven months of closing high.

  截至当天收盘,上证指数收报2311.74点,大涨3.06%,为2012年6月18日以来的收盘新高;深证成指收市报9316.27点,涨3.31%。全天深沪两市共成交2483亿元,较前一交易日放大近两成。

By the closing,The Shanghai index finished at 2311.74 points,Rose 3.06%,For 2012 years since the day of June and the closing high;Shenzhen stock exchange ChengZhi closing to 9316.27 points,Rose 3.31%.All day long deep Shanghai two city a total of $248.3 billion to clinch a deal,Compared with the previous trading day amplification nearly twenty percent.

  从板块表现来看,金融股再度成为逼空的主力军。当天,申万金融服务指数大涨5.11%,涨幅位居申万一级行业指数涨幅榜首位。其中,平安银行(000001,股吧)(000001.SZ)及国金证券(600109,股吧)(600109.SH)更是强势涨停。

From the plate performance to see,Financials has once again become the main force empty.the,"All financial services index rose 5.11%,Or in "all level industry index or top.the,Pingan bank(000001,guba)(000001 SZ)And countries gold securities(600109,guba)(600109. SH)Is strong harden.

  据同花顺(300033,股吧)iFinD统计数据显示,当天沪深两市主力资金净流入112.74亿元,而银行和证券两大行业主力资金净流入金额分别位居全部行业榜首席和次席,全天主力资金分别净流入22.62亿元和19.57亿元,合计达42.19亿元,占比高达37.42%。

According to the straight flush(300033,guba)IFinD statistical data display,Shenzhen city of the two main net capital 11.274 billion yuan,And Banks and securities two big main industry fund net value in all industries are the top sheet and second,All day long the main fund net 2.262 billion yuan and 1.957 billion yuan respectively,Add up to 4.219 billion yuan,Accounted for more than 37.42%.

  对于当天的飙升行情,金鹰基金有关人士直言深感意外。“从历次行情启动初期的首次调整情况看,目前仅3%的调整幅度并未到位,但预计市场可能在亢奋情绪下继续上冲。”

In the event of a same day soaring prices,Jinying fund concerned the truth was accidental."All the quotations from the initial of the first adjustment to see,Currently, only 3% of the adjustment range does not reach the designated position,But the mood is expected to market may be stimulated to rush in."

  该人士认为,上周五受地缘政治再趋紧张、2012年12月重要宏观数据未明显超预期等综合影响,盘中震荡幅度显著。但本周一市场在证监会主席郭树清“RQFII和QFII投资额度可以扩大10倍的水平”等消息刺激下,市场再度出现暴涨。

The people think,Last Friday the nervous by geopolitical again/In December of 2012 important macro data not obvious comprehensive influence than expected,Pan oscillation amplitude significantly.But on Monday GuoShuQing market in securities regulatory commission chairman"RQFII and QFII investment quota can expand the level of ten times"News such as stimulation,Market shot up again.

  而中登公司数据也表明,2012年12月31日-2013年1月4日当周仅有的两个交易日内,深沪两交易所新增股票开户数4.04万户,周度调整对应为10.05万户,已连续四周保持在10万户以上,体现出场外资金的入市意愿显著回暖。

But the data also show that's,On December 31, 2012 - January 2013 4 week only two trading days,Deep Shanghai two exchange new stock accounts 40400 households,Weeks of corresponding adjustment for 100500 households,Has been around for more than 100000 households keep in,Reflect off of the capital market will significantly milder.

  场外资金跑步入场

Outside the capital running

  对此,有券商研究人士表示,经过近一个半月的急涨,目前多头似乎仍未见疲弱现象。上周五难得一见的大跌,反而成为了场外资金加速跑步入场的最佳时机。“当前,市场逼空的氛围并未发生改变,在这一关口资金进场抢筹的态度依然十分坚决。”

this,A dealer researchers said,After nearly a half of the surge,At present still seems long did not see the weak phenomenon.Last Friday rare crash,It became the capital outside the acceleration running the best time."The current,The market force empty atmosphere did not change,In this pass capital approach to raise the attitude is still very strong."

  与此同时,周期类权重蓝筹股在经过前一段有限休整后再次选择强势向上。此外,题材股每天都有涨停潮出现,成交量也一直处于近几个月来的天量水平。

meanwhile,Cycle class weight blue chip after a period of rest before co., LTD., choose once again strong upward.In addition,Subject shares every day harden tide appears,Volume has been in the past few months to the day of the volume level.

  当天,郭树清在2013亚洲金融论坛上表示,RQFII和QFII投资额度可以扩大到10倍的水平,再次给市场注入信心。

the,GuoShuQing in 2013 Asian financial BBS on Wednesday,RQFII and QFII investment quota can expand to ten times the level,Once again to the market confidence injection.

  兴业证券(601377,股吧)策略分析师张忆东则认为,当前这波反弹的主要动力在于基本面、政策面改善,使得投资者风险偏好提升,从而引发场外资金重新配置股市。

Xingye securities(601377,guba)Analysts ZhangYiDong strategy is considered,The current the rebound of the main power is fundamental/Policy surface to improve,The investors risk preference of ascension,Raising funds outside reconfigure the stock market.

  “目前,这个趋势才刚刚开始,驱动因素依然有力。尽管股市大幅反弹,A 股交易账户占比仍处于低位,说明场外资金进入股市的势头方兴未艾。”张忆东称。

"At present,This trend has only just begun,Driving factors still remain strong.Although the stock market rebound sharply,A shares account for trading accounts than is still in low,That street money coming into the market trend is in the ascendant."ZhangYiDong says.

  进入1 月份以来,理财产品的发行收益率和发行数量增速,均开始明显下降。这表明随着银行系统度过年末的资金面压力后,高息揽存压力有所缓解。与此同时,随着金融创新的加速推进,比如券商资管创新AB分级产品,低风险偏好者拿A端固定收益,借钱给二级市场。这些因素均有助于场外资金重新配置股市。

Enter since January,The issue of financial product yield and release quantity growth,All begun to drop off significantly.This suggests that as the banking system through the end of the year after the financing side pressure,Dear LanCun pressure to ease.meanwhile,With the accelerating of financial innovation,Such as brokers endowment tube innovation AB grade products,Low risk preference person take A end fixed income,Lend money to the secondary market.These factors are outside funds to reconfigure the stock market.

  此外,基金等机构投资者在年底考核后的提升仓位和调仓,也有望给市场带来新的增量资金。

In addition,Institutional investors such as fund at the end of the year after the assessment of ascension positions and adjustable warehouse,Is expected to bring new incremental funds to the market.

  根据好买仓位测算模型显示,上周偏股型基金的持股仓位继续上升,平均增长了394个基点,当前仓位为79.96%。其中,标准混合型基金的仓位涨幅较大,上升了413个基点,主动股票型的仓位也提高了383个基点。从目前仓位来看,基金仍还有一定的增仓空间。

According to the good buy position estimation model display,Last week, partial shares fund holding positions continue to rise,Grew by an average of 394 basis points,A current position is 79.96%.the,Standard mixed type fund positions or larger,Rose by 413 basis points,Active stock type position also improves 383 basis points.From the current position to see,The fund is still have a certain increase warehouse space.

  对此,好买基金研究中心有关人士也认为,上周五的短期休整为市场大幅上涨提供了弹性。此前,我国宏观经济自去年四季度以来的稳步复苏为近期市场快速上涨提供了基本面的有力支撑。此外,随着年末考核、元旦假期以及年初存款准备金补缴等因素的消退,市场资金面已重回宽松。

this,Good buy fund research center officials also say that,Short rest on Friday for the market rises considerably provides elastic.after,The macro economy since the fourth quarter of last year since the steady recovery for recent market rise rapidly provides basic the strong support.In addition,With the end of the year assessment/New Year's day holiday in early and payment of deposit reserve factors such as resolve,Market financing area has to return to loose.

  截至上周末,央行逆回购操作规模较前期出现显著下降,使得未来逆回购操作到期形成的被动回笼压力大幅减轻,总体来看,市场的流动性进一步改善。近日,7日银行间质押式回购利率从去年年末的4.58%大幅回落至2.73%。

By last weekend,The central bank reverse repurchase operation scale is the significant decline,Make the future reverse repurchase operation due to the passive form of pressure greatly reduce,overall,To further improve the market liquidity.recently,7 RiYin inter-row repo rate from 4.58% at the end of last year dropped sharply to 2.73%.

  “总体来看,随着我国经济的持续复苏,A股仍将处于上涨趋势当中。近期,资金面的改善或是政策的利好刺激都可能成为市场强势反弹的催化剂。”该人士称。

"overall,With China's sustained economic recovery,A shares of the rising trend will remain in.recent,The funds to improve or policy stimulus might be good market rebounded strongly catalyst."This personage says.

  A股演绎春季行情

A-share market to deduce the spring

  “中期来看,2013年一季度会持续演绎春季行情,震荡整体上行可能性较大,但两会后会趋于谨慎。届时,需密切关注各项政策推进及基本面演进情况。”前述金鹰基金有关人士称。

"The medium term,In the first quarter of 2013 will continue to deduce the spring,The overall upward shocks more likely,But after two will tend to be cautious.the,Need to pay close attention to promote the policy and fundamental evolution situation."The platinum fund officials say.

  历史统计数据也表明,在过去的20年以来,多达14年上证综指在一季度是上涨的,“春季攻势”的概率高达70%。

Historical data also show that,In the past twenty years,As many as 14 years the Shanghai composite index is rising in the quarter,"Spring offensive"The probability of as high as 70%.

  “立足于中期,当前依然是低位。投资者应继续保持多头的心,正确看待震荡,积极把握机会,特别是业绩反转型的机会。”张忆东强调。

"Based on middle,The current is still low.Investors should continue to keep long heart,A correct view on shock,Actively seize the opportunity,Especially the performance against the transformation of the opportunity."ZhangYiDong emphasize.

  而招商证券(600999,股吧)分析师陈文招也表示,A股市场中期(1-2个季度)行情支撑在于经济复苏,而通胀尚未到达需要重新收缩货币政策的地步。

And China merchants securities(600999,guba)Analysts ChenWenZhao also said,A-share market in the middle of the(1-2 a quarter)Quotation is to support economic recovery,And inflation has not reached need to shrink the point of monetary policy.

  “经济复苏是否持续在一季度尚无法被证伪,而目前看经济基本面在复苏,这为股市震荡回升提供了良好的基础。”陈文招称。

"Economic recovery is continuous in the quarter is still cannot be falsification,And now see economic fundamentals in recovery,The stock market crash back to provide a good foundation."ChenWenZhao says.

  从日前公布的2012年12月份进出口数据来看,伴随着美国经济的稳步反弹和欧洲经济的轻微复苏,外需正为我国经济的小周期复苏增添一份动力;而进口增速的反弹则证明了内需的回暖。在需求复苏的推动下,工业品价格PPI增速已连续多月步入回升轨道,可以确定企业收入增长和利润率都在回升。

Announced a few days ago from December 2012 to import and export data,With the steady economic rebound and European economic slight recovery,Now that the economy in our country is small cycle recovery adds a power;And import growth rebound is proved that domestic demand milder.In demand driven recovery,The prices of manufactured goods to PPI growth has been for more than a month back into orbit,Can determine enterprise income growth and profitability are on the up.

  张忆东认为,盈利改善将成为2013年A股行情的主要推动力,非金融上市公司盈利趋势出现逆转,净利润同比增长可达16%左右,盈利(预期)的改善也将是2013年行业配置的一条主线。

ZhangYiDong think,To improve profitability will become 2013 a-share market the main driving force,Non-financial listed companies' profit trend reversed,Net profit year-on-year growth of 16% or so,profit(expected)Improvement will be 2013 years of industry configuration of a thread.

  在反弹行情的带动下,金鹰中证技术领先指数1月14日单日涨幅高达4.08%,跟踪该指数的金鹰中证技术领先指数基金从底部反弹以来,基金净值涨幅已超过18%。

Rallies in driving,Platinum leading technology index showed on January 14, one-day increase as high as 4.08%,Tracking the index showed platinum leading technology index fund since the rebound from the bottom,Fund net value or more than 18%.



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