证券时报记者 吕锦明 徐欢

The securities times reporter LvJinMing XuHuan

　　国际货币基金组织（IMF）副总裁朱民昨日亮相“2013亚洲金融论坛”，他在演讲中重点就当今世界经济形势正在发生的变化、亚洲经济体应如何适应这一变化等话题发表了自己的观点。朱民还在演讲中表示，中国金融体系总体仍属健康，但需警惕系统性风险正在积累。他指出，中国不能走西方金融危机的老路。

The international monetary fund(IMF)Vice President ZhuMin appeared yesterday"2013 Asian financial BBS",In the speech, he lays emphasis on the world's current economic situation is change/Asian economies should be how to adapt to this change and other topics made their point of view.ZhuMin also in the speech said,China's financial system is overall health,But should be alert to systemic risk is accumulated.He pointed out that,China cannot leave the western financial crisis made.

　　世界以“国家群”相互联系 The world"National group"Mutual contact

　　朱民以国内生产总值（GDP）地图以及数据图表的形式介绍说，在全球经济一体化过程中，世界经济发生了巨大的改变。目前世界各国之间的经济联系并不是简单“一对一”的关系，而是通过一个“国家群”的概念进行联系。

ZhuMin to GDP(GDP)Maps and data in the form of chart said,In the global economic integration process,The world economy has had the huge change.The current world economic relations between states and is not simple"one-on-one"relationship,But through a"National group"The concept of contact.

　　朱民指出，目前世界上国与国之间不是简单的线性关系，而是一个拓扑关系图，这成为当今全球经济和金融活动的最主要组织的方式。他认为，第一个“国家群”就是欧洲和美国，而且两者之间的联系较以往更趋紧密；第二个“国家群”是泛亚洲国家群，其特点是由供应链垂直整合形成的，中国及其他发展中国家就在此列；第三个“国家群”为能源供应国，比如俄罗斯、阿拉伯国家等，它们的能源政策大同小异，相互之间的关系也正在发生变化。

ZhuMin pointed out that,The world between countries is not a simple linear relationship,But a topological relationship diagram,It has become one of the global economic and financial activities of the main way of the organization.He thinks,The first"National group"Is Europe and the United States,And the connection between the two than ever more hasten is close;The second"National group"Is the Asian country group,Its characteristic is formed by supply chain vertical integration,China and other developing countries in one of them;The third"National group"For energy supplier,Such as Russia/Arab countries, etc,They are of the same energy policy,The relationship between each other also is changing.

　　他进一步指出，在这种形势下，由于欧洲的金融活动、金融交易总量很大，因此会对全球金融体系产生极大的影响。朱民同时指出，正因为各国之间联系日趋紧密，因此外部的任何变动对于每个国家的经济政策都有极大影响。他特别以中国为例指出，外部冲击对中国GDP的影响幅度可以达到30%～60%。

He further points out,In this situation,Due to the European financial activities/A financial transaction amount,Therefore to the global financial system have great impact.ZhuMin also pointed out,Because of increasingly close contact between countries,So the external any changes for each country's economic policies have great influence.He especially pointed out that in China, for example,External shocks on the influence of China's GDP range can reach 30% ~ 60%.

　　亚洲金融风险在酝酿 The Asian financial risk in brewing

　　朱民介绍说，在过去10年的时间里，整个亚洲的金融资产增长了480%，而中国的金融资产增长了750%。他认为，尽管整个亚洲金融业占全球金融业的比重不是很大，但是亚洲金融资产增长速度非常惊人，其背后正酝酿巨大风险。

ZhuMin said,In the past ten years of time,The whole of Asia's financial assets increased by 480%,While China's financial assets increased by 750%.He thinks,Although the Asian financial industry accounted for the proportion of the global financial industry is not very big,But the Asian financial asset growth speed is amazing,The back is undergoing huge risk.

　　他指出，由于亚洲金融市场主要是由银行业所驱动，所以变化的规律和欧美等国家略有不同，亚洲地区的波动性与世界平均水平相比也要高出3～4倍。朱民认为，这表明亚洲亟待解决确保所有金融投资产品安全性的问题，而且还要做到投资风险可以受到有效监管和控制。

He pointed out that,Due to the Asian financial market is mainly driven by the banking industry,So change rules and Europe and the United States and other countries a little different,The volatility of the Asian region and the world's average level higher than to 3 ~ 4 times.ZhuMin think,This suggests that the Asian urgently to be solved to ensure that all financial investment product safety problems,But also do investment risk, which can be effective supervision and control.

　　朱民表示，全球经济的另外一个趋势是，外商直接投资（FDI）的影响越来越明显。全球各经济体在跨境交易、跨境合作方面的协调工作显得尤为突出，上述因素都令跨境合作比任何时候显得更为重要。同时，各国需要从贸易融资、区内外商直接投资、货币掉期制度安排等方面进行制度革新，增强市场的弹性和抗风险、抗跌能力，以期达到对本国金融市场风险有效控制的目的。

ZhuMin said,The global economy is another trend,Foreign direct investment(FDI)Influence is more and more obvious.Global economies in cross-border transactions/Cross-border cooperation coordination work seems particularly outstanding,All the above factors make cross-border cooperation is more important than any time.At the same time,Countries need from trade financing/The foreign direct investment/Currency swap system arrangement and so on system innovation,Enhance the elasticity of the market and risk resistance/Resistance ability to fall,In order to achieve their financial market risk for the purpose of effective control.

　　不能走西方金融危机老路 Can't go western financial crisis made

　　朱民还表示，虽然中国金融体系总体仍属健康，但需要警惕系统性风险正在积累。他表示，中国的金融制度改革必须服务实体经济发展，要为制造业、农业、服务业、中国的老龄化以及抵御外部冲击服务。朱民认为，金融业一旦脱离实体经济就会无限扩张，甚至误导宏观经济走势，中国不能走西方金融危机的老路。

ZhuMin also said,Although China's financial system is overall health,But needs to be aware of systemic risk is accumulated.He said,China's financial system reform must service entity economy development,For manufacturing/agricultural/services/China's aging population and external shocks service.ZhuMin think,The financial industry once from the real economy will be infinite expansion,Even mislead macroeconomic trends,China cannot leave the western financial crisis made.

　　朱民指出，整个亚洲正在形成一个垂直的产业供应链，但还没有一个垂直的金融供应链，建议发展债券市场帮助企业融资购买原材料，从而全面提升制造业产能和技术含量。

ZhuMin pointed out that,The whole of Asia are forming a vertical industry supply chain,But not a vertical financial supply chain,Propose the development of the bond market financing help enterprise purchase of raw materials,So as to improve manufacturing productivity and technology content.

　　至于市场关心的“影子银行”问题，朱民表示，IMF认为中国的银行体系整体健康，但系统性风险正在增加。

As for market concern"Shadow Banks"problems,ZhuMin said,IMF think that China's banking system overall health,But systemic risk is increasing.

　　朱民称，中国的金融改革任务很重，金融创新仍需要发展，“影子银行”难分好坏，核心问题在于“钱”是否流入了实体经济。

ZhuMin says,China's financial reform task is very heavy,Financial innovation is still need to develop,"Shadow Banks"Difficult points stand or fall,Core problem is"money"Whether into the real economy.