近日召开的银监会2013年度工作会议强调，守住不发生系统性和区域性风险底线是首要任务，严防信用违约风险、严控表外业务关联风险、严管外部风险传染。而在此之前，央行工作会也把“防范金融风险”提到了2013年宏观政策的突出位置。这与中央经济工作会议强调“要高度重视财政金融领域存在的风险隐患，坚决守住不发生系统性和区域性金融风险的底线”一脉相承，足见党中央新一届领导集体对防范和化解当前金融领域存在的潜在风险高度重视。

The banking regulatory commission recently held 2013 annual work meeting stressed,Keep not occur systemic and regional risk the bottom line is the primary task,Take strict precautions against credit risk of default/Tight control of off-balance sheet business related risk/Standard external risk infection.And before this,The central bank also work"Guard against financial risks"Mentioned the 2013 macro policy prominent position.This and the central economic working conference stressed"Should attach great importance to the financial sector financial risks are hidden trouble,Firmly hold not occur systemic and regional financial risks of the bottom line"come,It serves to show the new collective leadership of the party central committee to guard against and defuse financial field in the current potential risk attaches great importance to.

　　今明两年金融风险将集中暴露 In the next two years financial risks will focus on exposure

　　目前，我国金融资产规模已经有了很大发展。2012年末，广义货币(M2)余额97.42万亿元，同比增长13.8%；2012年12月社会融资规模达1.63万亿元，全年社会融资规模为15.76万亿元，比上年多2.93万亿元，增长16.7%，其中，全年人民币贷款增加8.2万亿元，同比多增7320亿元。

At present,China's financial asset scale has had the very big development.By the end of 2012,Broad money(m2)Balance is 97.42 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 13.8%;In December of 2012 social financing scale up to 1.63 trillion yuan,The social financing scale for 15.76 trillion yuan,More than 2.93 trillion yuan more than last year,Growth of 16.7%,the,The RMB loan an increase of 8.2 trillion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 732 billion yuan.

　　不过，风险也蕴含其中。央行金融消费权益保护局局长焦瑾璞在第十七届（2013）中国资本市场论坛上指出，今明两年金融风险将集中暴露。当前，一些金融风险隐患有所抬头，例如在地方政府换届之时，部分地区融资平台蠢蠢欲动；同时，银行的不良贷款可能有所上升。这些风险可能随着经济发展的变动而表现出来。金融风险暴露的时间节点，主要是在今年和明年。这是由银行长期贷款的还款时点来推测的。2009年银行系统长期贷款占70%，2010年占60%多，这些贷款的集中还款期是3－5年，也就是说今明两年将是银行风险暴露的重要节点。随着债务集中到期，一些机构可能出现资金链问题，从而可能引发广泛风险。

but,Risk also contain among them.The central bank financial interests of consumer protection agency bureau telephoto jin equipments in the 17th(2013)China's capital market BBS points out,In the next two years financial risks will focus on exposure.The current,Some financial risks is back,For example, in the local government of,Parts move financing platform;At the same time,The Banks' bad loans may be increased.These risks may change along with the economic development of the show.Financial risk exposure time node,Mainly in this year and next.This is the bank long term loan repayment date to speculative.In 2009, the banking system long-term loans accounted for 70%,In 2010, more than 60%,The concentration of these loans repayment period is 3-5 years,That is in the next two years will be an important node bank risk exposure.Along with the debt maturity concentration,Some institutions may appear capital chain,Thus may cause extensive risk.

　　地方债务和不良贷款不容小视 Local debt and non-performing loans is not involved

　　当下，地方债务问题逐渐长期化，成为左右中国经济运行的最大不确定因素，并牵制着决策层对宏观经济走向的判断及政策的取舍。那么，中国地方政府性债务总数到底是多少？目前官方还没有披露准确数据，但根据国内某大型评级机构初步测算，2011年地方政府性债务同比约下降3%，而2012年同比大幅反弹，增速约为20%，粗略测算，2012年底地方政府性债务规模可能在12万亿元左右。此外，根据渣打银行大中华区经济研究主管、高级经济学家王志浩的统计，2012年中国企业与政府的资产负债表杠杆达到国内生产总值（GDP）的206%，创历史最高水平。如此高的杠杆率给中国金融系统带来了极端的脆弱和明显的衰退。庞大数据蕴藏巨大风险令人担忧，这或许也是财政部为什么在2012年的最后一天联合四部门发文《关于制止地方政府违法违规融资行为的通知》，再次强调对地方政府融资行为进行规范的真实意图。

the,Local debt reform gradually,As China's economic operation about the biggest uncertainty factors,And check the decision-making and the macro economy to the judgment and policy choices.so,Local government debt total exactly is how much?The official also disclosed no accurate data,But according to a domestic large rating agencies preliminary estimates,In 2011, local government debt fell 3% year-on-year about,And the 2012 year-on-year rebound sharply,Growth is about 20%,Rough estimates,By the end of 2012 local government debt scale may be in 12 trillion yuan or so.In addition,According to the standard chartered bank in the greater China region economic research supervisor/Senior economist Stephen green statistics,In 2012, the Chinese enterprise and the government's balance sheet lever to GDP(GDP)206% of the,Record levels.Such a high leverage ratio for China's financial system brought the extreme vulnerability and obvious decline.Huge data contain huge risk alarming,Perhaps this is why the ministry of finance on the last day of 2012 joint four departments outgoing mail[About the local government to stop illegal financing behavior of the notice],Again to the local government in order to regulate the financing behavior of the real intention.

　　近期不良贷款暴露呈现加速扩散的势头。根据银监会发布《商业银行主要监管指标情况表》显示，截至2012年三季度末，商业银行不良贷款余额4788亿元，已经连续4个季度反弹，不良贷款率为0.95%，较前两季度上升0.01个百分点。其中股份制银行2011年四季度至2012年三季度不良贷款率分别为0.6%、0.63%、0.65%、0.7%。

The recent exposure of non-performing loans on the trend of accelerated diffusion.According to the CBRC issued[The main commercial bank regulatory index table]display,By the end of 2012 at the end of the third quarter,Commercial Banks non-performing loan balance is 478.8 billion yuan,For four consecutive quarter rebound,Bad loans is 0.95%,A 0.01% rise in the first two quarters.The joint-stock Banks in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 2012 years of bad loans in the third quarter was 0.6%/0.63%/0.65%/0.7%.

　　对“影子银行”不可掉以轻心 to"Shadow Banks"Cannot treat STH lightly

　　事实上，在笔者看来，除了以上所列地方融资平台和银行不良贷款，还有“影子银行”风险不得不引起重视。新任中央委员、中国银行(601988,股吧)董事长肖钢在十八大召开前夕的两个月里，两度警示中国的“影子银行”风险：最大的风险是中国式的“影子银行”体系，这个风险既和中国银行业的风险密切相连，也与现代资本市场的风险相连。在中国，“影子银行”主要集中于三种形式的融资：第一类是银行表外业务，如理财产品；第二类是非银行类金融机构，如信托公司、小贷公司等；第三类则是民间金融。根据中金公司的估算，理财产品方面，预计2012年末理财产品余额将达到7万亿元，同比增长53%。部分理财产品资产池涉及委托贷款、信贷资产转让等，从而规避了监管层对信贷规模、拨备等的管控。信托资产方面，银监会非银部数据显示，截至2012年11月底，全行业管理信托资产已经扩张至6.98万亿元。民间金融方面，2011年爆发的温州民间借贷链条断裂，凸显出民间借贷快速发展中的一些风险。受此前风险暴露影响，预计2012年规模将有所萎缩，余额将降至3万亿元左右。即使对这三种“影子银行”简单加总，2012年末规模估计就达到约20万亿元。而中国目前GDP规模也只有约50万亿元。数量上判断，中国的“影子银行”已经十分庞大。

In fact,The author seems to be in,In addition to the above-mentioned local financing platform and bad bank loans,and"Shadow Banks"Risk have to pay attention.The new member of the central committee/The bank of China(601988,guba)The chairman of the board XiaoGang in the eighteenth big eve held two months,Warning China twice"Shadow Banks"risk:The biggest risk is Chinese"Shadow Banks"system,The risk is the risk of banking industry and China is closely linked,And with the modern capital market risk connected.In China,"Shadow Banks"Mainly focus on three forms of financing:The first kind is the bank's off-balance sheet business,Such as financial products;The second type is bank kind financial institutions,Such as the trust company/Small loan companies, such as;The third type is the folk finance.According to the cicc estimation,Financial products,Is expected by the end of 2012 financial products balance will reach 7 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 53%.Part of the financial product in asset pool entrust loan/The transfer of credit assets, etc,So as to avoid the supervision layer to the credit scale/Provision of control.Trust assets,The CBRC not silver department data display,By the end of 2012 the end of November,The industry management trust assets have expansion to 6.98 trillion yuan.Folk financial,In 2011 the outbreak of the wenzhou folk lending chain fracture,Highlights some of the rapid development of folk loan risk.By the previous exposure effect,In 2012 is expected to scale to atrophy,Balance will drop to 3 trillion yuan.Even for the three"Shadow Banks"Simple aggregation,By the end of 2012 to estimate the scale of about 20 trillion yuan.China now GDP scale is only about 50 trillion yuan.Quantitatively judge,China's"Shadow Banks"Has very large.

　　国际金融市场风险可能蔓延 The international financial market risk could spread

　　此外，还要警惕全球金融市场四个风险向中国传递：一是美国量化宽松货币政策及债务上限等风险将影响美国经济复苏的能力；二是欧债危机存在蔓延的可能性，金融市场动荡还将持续；三是日本债务风险。在过去的10年里，日本政府一直在依靠发行债券来进行融资，其在10年间的发债规模高达约14.6万亿美元，这一债务占日本国内生产总值水平的230%，远远高出希腊的165%；四是新兴经济体经济增长面临出口下降和国际资本流向逆转的风险，这可能加剧全球金融市场的波动。

In addition,But to challenge the global financial market four risk transfer to China:One is the quantitative easing monetary policy and the debt limit risks will influence the U.S. economic recovery ability;The second is the debt crisis exist the possibility of spreading,The financial market turmoil will continue;The third is the Japanese debt risk.In the past ten years,The Japanese government has been on issue bonds to finance,In the ten years FaZhai scale up to about $14.6 trillion,The debt of Japan's GDP level of 230%,Is much higher than 165% of Greece;The fourth is emerging economies facing economic growth decline in exports and international capital flow reversals of the risk,This may aggravate global financial market fluctuations.