关注“达沃斯世界经济论坛”

attention"Davos world economic BBS"

　　参加论坛的一些央行和商界人士虽然已对发达国家普遍的货币宽松政策的后果感到忧虑，但是达沃斯论坛一贯有“说归说做归做”的传统，估计欧美日等发达国家的货币宽松政策不会有多少改变。

BBS in some of the central bank and business people in the developed countries, although it is common monetary easing consequences feel worried,But davos BBS always have"Said to say do to do"traditional,Estimate, Europe and the United States and other developed countries monetary easing won't have much change.

　　这几天位于阿尔卑斯山的小镇达沃斯热闹非凡，今年的达沃斯世界经济论坛正在这儿举行。

This few days is located in the Alps town davos very busy,This year's davos world economic BBS are held here.

　　据说，今年的达沃斯论坛是有史以来最为多元化的一次，来自各国政、商、媒体代表人数达2500多名。中国的代表并不多，只有113人，仅为印度代表团一半。虽然参加今年达沃斯论坛的中国人不多，达沃斯论坛的中国因素却依然不少，甚至可以说更多了。论坛开幕的当天就有两场分别名为“中国的增长环境”和“中国2020：当愿景遇到现实”的论坛会议在达沃斯举行。

It is said that,This year's davos BBS is the most diversified one,All countries government from/business/The number of media representatives of more than 2500.China's representative is not much,Only 113 people,India is only half of the delegation.Although this year in davos BBS Chinese not much,Davos BBS Chinese factors is still a lot of,Even more.BBS on the day of the opening two games, respectively"China's growth environment"and"China 2020:When vision meet the reality"The BBS meeting in davos.

　　今年达沃斯论坛的主题是“为持久发展注入活力”。表面看来，自国际金融危机以来压在世人头上的危机感正在逐渐消失，欧元崩溃瓦解的预警已经解除，笼罩在美国和中国两个全球最大的经济体头上的乌云也已吹散。可是，达沃斯论坛创始人克劳斯·施瓦布在会前断言“世界经济依然处于崩溃边缘”，或许正是因为目前欧美的经济复苏只是表面的，许多深层次的难点还未消除，“持久发展”还不能保证，所以要为“持久发展”而“注入活力”。

This year is the theme of the davos BBS"For the lasting development inject vigor".The surface looks,Since the international financial crisis in the world since pressure head crisis awareness is gradually disappear,The euro to collapse warning has lifted,Enveloped in the United States and China's two largest economy in the world head clouds has been overblown.but,Davos BBS founder Klaus schwab, that before the meeting"The world economy is still on the verge of collapse",Perhaps it is just because at present Europe and America's economic recovery is only skin-deep,Many deep difficulty is not eliminate,"Lasting development"Cannot guarantee,So to"Lasting development"and"Inject vigor".

　　为欧美日发达国家经济“注入活力”，更多地表现在两个方面，一个是注入更多的流动性。最近几年来，美联储、英国央行、日本央行以及欧洲央行都在一定程度上偏离了传统的应对通胀路线，而去考虑降低失业率、提高名义GDP以及确保主权债市场平稳运行等目标。另一个就是依靠中国等新兴国家，希望企稳回升的中国经济成为世界经济发展的“稳定引擎”。

For Europe and the United States, the economy developed countries"Inject vigor",More surface now two aspects,One is inject more liquidity.In recent years,The federal reserve/The bank of England/The bank of Japan and the European central bank in a certain extent, deviated from the traditional route to deal with inflation,And to consider to reduce unemployment/Improve the nominal GDP and ensure the sovereign debt market running smoothly and target.Another is to rely on China and other emerging countries,Hope stabilises resilience of the Chinese economy becomes one of the world's economic development"Stable engine".

　　参加达沃斯世界经济论坛的一些央行和商界人士虽然已有对发达国家普遍的货币宽松政策的后果感到忧虑，但是达沃斯论坛一贯有“说归说做归做”的传统，估计欧美日等发达国家的货币宽松政策不会有多少改变。

Attend davos world economic BBS of some of the central bank and business people in the developed countries, although there is common monetary easing consequences feel worried,But davos BBS always have"Said to say do to do"traditional,Estimate, Europe and the United States and other developed countries monetary easing won't have much change.

　　因此，对于企稳回升的中国经济而言，当然会为世界经济发展“注入活力”，但是我们也必定受到世界经济尤其是欧美日经济发展的严重影响。

so,For stabilising the economy rebounded in China,Of course for the economic development of the world"Inject vigor",But we must also is the world economy, especially in Europe and the economic development of the serious influence.

　　因为欧美日等发达国家经济经过几年乃至十几年时间，去杠杆化基本完成，因此其各自的货币宽松政策并未带来严重的通货膨胀。反过来，中国经济则加杠杆率趋势至今还未完全扭转过来。因此对于中国经济来说，一定要注意最坏局面的出现：一方面发达国家的货币宽松未减轻他们自己通货膨胀反而增加了中国的通胀压力，另一方面在经济复苏仍未巩固的情况下，欧美继续贸易保护主义使中国出口备受压力。

For Europe and the United States and other developed countries, economic after several years or even more than ten years,De-leveraging completed,So their monetary easing did not bring serious inflation.In turn,China's economy is the trend and leverage ratio is still not completely turn over.So for China's economy is,Must pay attention to the appearance of the worst situation:On the one hand the developed countries currency loose not reduce their own inflation but increased China's inflationary pressure,On the other hand, in the economic recovery is still not consolidated cases,Europe and the United States continue to trade protectionism that China's export stressed.

　　为了防止这样最坏的局面出现，我们首先要防止今年经济过热，只要国内经济不过热，当前情况下输入性通胀压力是有限的；其次，要鼓励各类中资企业走出去，尤其要鼓励民企进行海外并购，减少贸易保护的口实，巩固中国经济回升的势头；最后，不间断地扩大内需，使中国市场和中国经济真正成为世界经济发展的引擎。

In order to prevent such bad situation appear,We first to prevent overheating economy this year,As long as the domestic economy is not overheat,The current situation of input inflation pressure is limited;secondly,To encourage all kinds of Chinese enterprises to go out,Especially to encourage enterprises to overseas mergers and acquisitions,Reduce trade protection handle,Strengthen the China economy picks up momentum;finally,Incessantly expanding domestic demand,Make the Chinese market and Chinese economy become the engine of world economic development.

　　郁慕湛（上海 学者）

YuMuZhan(Shanghai scholars)