16.4万亿（美元）！这个让美国人纠结的数字，不仅是目前美国庞大的债务额度，也是债务上限额度，而围绕它的一系列争论实在令人头疼不已。

16.4 trillion(dollars)!This let americans swirly digital,Is not only the United States currently has a large amount of debt,Is the debt limit line,A series of debate around it and it is a headache.

　　这个问题一直在困扰着华尔街。从去年年底开始，策略分析师们在对投资人表达了2013年美股市场走势乐观的态度后，同样不忘提醒投资人一句：小心国会山（Capitol Hill，即美国国会的办公大楼）里的不确定性。

The problem has been bothering the Wall Street.Start from the end of last year,Strategy analysts on investors expressed in 2013 the us stock market movements after an optimistic attitude,Also do not forget to remind investors a:Be careful on Capitol hill(Capitol Hill,The congress of the United States is the office building)The uncertainty of the.

　　上周，除开马丁·路德·金日和奥巴马第二任期开始的消息，美国众议院表决了一项在5月19日之前暂停执行债务上限的法案最为引人注目。

Last week,Except Martin Luther King and barack Obama second term began to news,The United States house of representatives vote a on May 19, suspended before the debt ceiling bill most conspicuous.

　　由于此前美国财政部所谓的临时资金措施实际上维持不了多长时间，所以如果不及时提高美国债务上限或者暂停执行，美国出现违约或者政府关门这种听上去有点天方夜谭的局面还真有可能会发生。

Because the United States Treasury after the temporary capital measures in fact not enough for long time,So if not timely improve the debt ceiling or suspended,The United States government defaults or close this sounds a bit Arabian nights situation there is may occur.

　　美国两党肯定没人愿意背上让“美国违约”的历史骂名。因此，共和党控制下的众议院将上述法案通过的关键时点又巧妙地往后拖延了4个月。

The two parties must not let people are willing to back"The default"History vivid.so,Republican control of the house of representatives under the bill through the key point and skillfully dragged on for four months later.

　　5月19日会发生什么？这将取决于目前至5月19日期间所发生的情况。从已经见诸报端的分析来看，在接下来的4个月内，美国国会和政府有一定希望达成一项晦涩难懂的、长期的减赤计划。

On May 19, what will happen?This will depend on the present to May 19 period what happened.From the analysis of the central hunan province have come to see,In the following four months,The United States congress and the government has a certain hope to reach an arcane/Long-term minus red plan.

　　但是，从美国参议院2009年以来尚未通过一项预算决议的历史来看，此过程也许会比较曲折。在这个期间还会有数个触发点将促使上述协议达成，比如包括原定于3月初启动但延迟的政府自动减支，以及为多项政府运作提供资金的法案将在3月底到期废止。

but,From the United States senate since 2009 has not passed a budget resolution of history,This process may be more twists and turns.In this period will also have a trigger point will be reached to the agreement,Such as including scheduled for early march start but delayed government automatic in order,And for a number of government operation funding bill will expire in the end of march abolished.

　　这次美国众议院甚至在法案中规定了一条颇有压力的条款，即要求若美国国会议员不通过预算案就不向其支付薪水，或许能够为美国两党达成一项更为实质性的减赤计划奠定基础。

This time the United States house of representatives even in the act stipulates a quite have the pressure of the clause,That is to say if the United States congress not through the budget will not to pay the salary,For the two parties may be able to reach a more substantial reduction plan red lay the foundation.

　　美国债务上限争议背后肯定涉及到不少的政治博弈。坦白说，略去这些晦涩难懂的部分，实际上投资者需要了解的核心要义就是，假如美国有还不上债务的预期，债市会乱成一团，这样导致的结果是国债收益率上升，也就是所谓的无风险利率上涨。估计大多数的投资者都会知道这对股市来说可不是什么好消息。

The debt ceiling behind the dispute must be involved in many political game.To be frank,Cut out these obscure part,In fact investors need to know is the core meaning,If the United States has not expected on debt,The bond market will be a mess,This is the result of bond yields rise,Also is the so-called risk-free interest rate rise.Estimate the majority of investors will know the stock market is not what's the good news.

　　当然，上面的这种判断同样有可能是投资者在自己吓唬自己。巴菲特就认为美国政府的赤字问题根本不叫事儿，上周他在接受CBS的采访时说，“现在美国债务相对于GDP的比率低于二战结束之时，我们要从这个角度来考虑债务问题。”

Of course,The above this kind of judgment also may have been investors in their own scare yourself.Buffett will think the U.S. government deficit problem don't call it,Last week he told CBS in an interview,"Now the American debt relative to GDP ratio is lower than at the end of world war ii,We will from this Angle to consider debt problem."

　　巴菲特也赞成赤字应该稳定下来，但是他认为16.4万亿美元的债务本身并不是问题，而且巴菲特对美国国会能够解决此事持乐观态度，他还说了句“美国做对的事总比华盛顿犯下的错多”。

Buffett is also in favor of the deficit should be stable,But he thinks that $16.4 trillion of debt itself is not a problem,In the United States congress and buffett can solve this optimistic,He also said a sentence"The United States to do the right thing than Washington committed more than wrong".

　　既然这个市场中最有智慧和经验的人都这么说了，你想偷偷懒，也可以选择相信债务问题没有什么值得担心的。

Since the market the most wisdom and experience has said so,You want to steal lazy,Also can choose to believe that debt problems have nothing to worry about.

　　从市场情况来看，美股也是依然故我，延续着上涨的态势，标普500指数甚至突破了1500点，这是2007年以来的首次。

From the market situation,The us stock is still palpable,Continued rising trend,The s&p 500 even break through 1500 points,This is the first time since 2007.

　　真正的问题恐怕还是会来自业绩。比如苹果公司（AAPL）上周三公布的第一财季令人失望，利润仅仅小幅增加0.1%，该公司股价的下挫幅度超过10%，而且明显拖累了纳斯达克指数。

The real problem I'm afraid or will come from performance.Such as apple(AAPL)On Wednesday the first quarter in disappointment,Only small profits increased by 0.1%,The company's share price fell more than 10% of the range,And apparently, drag the nasdaq index.

　　尽管苹果旗下产品销量刷新纪录，但是第一财季实现的利润为130.8亿美元，高于上年同期的130.6亿美元，公司毛利率也从44.7%收窄至38.6%。

Although apple's products sales refresh record,But the first quarter in the realization of profit was $13.08 billion,Higher than the same period last year of 13.06 billion dollars,The company from 44.7% gross margin narrowed to 38.6%.

　　因为苹果没能再次上演投资者所希望看到的快速增长，所以，苹果股价的上升轨迹已经不再。然而，这对于美股而言是个例还是有所预示，或许才是华尔街真正需要考虑的问题。

Because apples can't again put on investors want to see the rapid growth,so,Apple share price rise trajectory is no longer.however,This is for us stocks in case or have predicted,Perhaps is the Wall Street really need to consider problems.