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金刚狼杀到日本--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2013-01-28

  《X战警》系列电影最新一集《金刚狼2》的拍摄刚刚结束,这一次超能英雄们的故事从美国转战日本。据电影导演在接受访问时透露,这一集的故事约有90%发生在日本,而且整体风格将更加黑暗阴郁。

[x-men]The latest episode of the film series[King kong Wolf 2]Just finished shooting,This time the heroes of the story from the United States fought Japan.According to the film director said in an interview,This set of stories about 90% occur in Japan,And integral style will be more dark, gloomy.

  金融市场上的焦点也在转向日本,继美国联储局扩大量化宽松规模之后,日本央行也有所行动。一如市场所料,日本央行决定将通胀目标从1%提高至2%,并承诺无限量购买资产。摩根资产管理对此认为,更加宽松的货币环境有望利好内需经济,而无限量宽则能令日元维持弱势,对出口行业构成支持。

The focus of the financial markets and in turn to Japan,After the federal reserve to expand quantitative easing after scale,The bank of Japan will be action.As the market expected,The bank of Japan decided to target inflation increased from 1% to 2%,And promised an unlimited purchase assets.Morgan asset management to think,Looser monetary environment is expected to benefit the economy of domestic demand,And an unlimited width is to be able to make the yen to maintain the weak,To export industry constitute a support.

  日本央行的政策委员会是以7比2的投票结果通过提高通胀目标的决定,而开放式购买债券则获得全票通过。自2014年1月起,日本央行每月将购买13万亿日元资产,其中包括2万亿日元国债。

The bank of Japan's policy committee is 7 more than 2 vote by increasing inflation target decision,And open to buy bonds get approved.Since January 2014,The bank of Japan monthly will buy 13 trillion yen assets,Including 2 trillion yen national debt.

  在随后发表的联合声明中,央行表示“下定决心”要创造宽松的货币环境,而日本政府则誓言采取增长战略,以重塑健康财政。除此以外,央行决定维持基准利率在0至0.1厘不变。该行并将2013财年日本的本地生产总值增长预测从1.6%向上修正至2.3%。

In the later published in a joint statement,The central bank said"Determined to"To create loose monetary conditions,And the Japanese government to take the oath growth strategies,To reshape health finance.In addition,Central bank decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at zero to 0.1.The bank and the fiscal year 2013 Japan's GDP growth forecast to 2.3% from 1.6% revisions.

  去年12月,由安倍晋三领导的自民党在众议院选举中获得压倒性胜利。这一结果一方面有助为日本带来稳定的政局,可提振投资信心;另一方面亦能为首相安倍晋三推行经济政策创造空间。

Last December,By shinzo Abe leadership of the liberal Democratic Party in the house of representatives election with a landslide victory.The results on the one hand help for Japanese bring stable political situation,Can boost investor confidence;On the other hand also for prime minister, shinzo Abe, implementation of the economic policy to create space.

  安倍主张透过央行增加货币供应、政府增加支出,以及维持日元弱势等三大途径,来扭转日本长期的通货紧缩困境。当然,这些方法能够奏效的一大前提是,日本消费者在预期物价将会上涨时,会尽快提前消费,并带动整体消费与投资回升。

Mr Abe advocated by the central bank increase money supply/The government to increase spending,And maintain the yen weak, the three big way,To reverse the Japanese long-term deflation dilemma.Of course,These methods can work is a major premise,Japanese consumers in the expected price will rise,As soon as possible consumption in advance,And bring back the whole consumption and investment.

  我们认为,以上措施能否生效,以及日本当前的通缩形势能否因此扭转,都有待时间验证。不过,更加宽松的货币环境通常都能利好内需经济。而且,日本央行的无限期量化宽松措施,亦有助日元维持弱势,可望对出口行业构成支持。

We think,These measures can take effect,And Japan current deflation situation can therefore torsion,All the time to be verified.but,Looser monetary environment can usually good domestic economy.and,The bank of Japan indefinitely quantitative easing measures,It will help you keep the disadvantaged,To export industry will be supportive.

  事实上,由于日本的房地产价格已从高位大挫80%,继续下跌的空间很小,而企业的杠杆率也已显著降低,日本的通货紧缩确有机会告一段落。

In fact,Because of Japan's real estate prices have DaCuo from high 80%,Continue to fall of space is very small,And enterprise's leverage ratio has been significantly reduced,Japan's deflation have chance to come to an end.

  在日股方面,由于日元弱势有助企业盈利改善,近期日股的盈利动能出现回升。现时对日股盈利评级进行上调的分析师人数已超过下调者,而共识预期的2013年企业每股盈利增长更已升至30%以上。至于估值方面,现时日股的预期市盈率为14倍,仍低于5年平均,市账率亦仍属合理水平。

In the day in stock,Because of the weak yen helps enterprise to improve profitability,Recently, share earnings rebound kinetic energy appear.Now, to share profit rating to raise more than analysts who cut,And consensus expected 2013 earnings per share growth enterprise more has risen to more than 30%.As for valuation in,Currently, the prospective p/e ratio stocks for 14 times,Still less than 5 years average,City account rate also still belong to a reasonable level.

  展望未来,假如今年日本的宏观经济形势确实能令人耳目一新,不排除日股会有所表现。不过,现时市场情绪已相当高涨,投资者仍应留意日本的本土政策以及地缘政治等潜在风险。

Looking to the future,If this year Japan's macro economic situation really can make a person find everything new and fresh,Don't eliminate, shares will have performance.but,Current market sentiment has quite high,Investors should still pay attention to Japan's domestic policies and geopolitical risk potential.



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