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建信金融研究员朱磊: 利率市场化大背景下寻找优质公司--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2013-01-28

建信金融研究员朱磊: 利率市场化大背景下寻找优质公司

  作为建信基金金融行业研究员及策略分析师,朱磊的工作重心主要是对所覆盖行业公司基本面进行密切跟踪和研究,并在行业和公司基本面发生变化时及时为投资人员做出提示和投资建议,在他看来,严谨的研究工作需要能够排除各种市场情绪的干扰,回归扎实的基本面研究。

As built letter fund financial industry researcher and strategy analyst,ZhuLei work center of gravity is mainly to the industry and the company fundamentals covered closely tracking and research,And in the industry and the company fundamental change in time for investment personnel make tips and investment advice,In his view,Rigorous research work need to be able to eliminate the interference of all kinds of market sentiment,Regression solid fundamental research.

  对于如何做好金融行业的研究工作,朱磊认为,首先需要对宏观经济环境进行正确的判断,金融股本身是大周期、长周期行业,正确认识到金融行业正处于周期运行的哪个阶段是研究工作能够成功的关键;其次,需要对行业内的每家公司进行具体的分析和判断,包括公司战略是否得当、经营是否具有前瞻性,机制是否灵活,执行力如何等等。

How to do well the financial industry to the research work,ZhuLei think,First of all need to macro economic environment to correct judgment,Financial itself is big cycle/Long cycle industry,The correct understanding to the financial industry is in the period of operation which stage is the research work can be the key to success;secondly,Need to each company in this industry to carry on the concrete analysis and judgment,Including the company's strategy to be whether appropriate/Management is proactive,Mechanism is agile,How execution and so on.

  大金融投资一般采取自上而下策略,但是朱磊认为,随着利率市场不断推进,自下而上选股作用会越来越大。

Big financial investment generally adopt top-down strategies,But ZhuLei think,With the interest rate market advancement,Bottom-up stock selection effect will be more and more big.

  “看今年大的背景是利率市场化,不仅是今年,乃至未来几年,思考金融股投资都应该以利率市场化作为出发点。”朱磊解释,利率市场化背后的逻辑就是金融各子行业之间的融合,利率市场化本质就是资金逐渐实现最优配置,打破行政垄断。因此,今年主要投资机会在于那些能够积极应对,并在战略、执行、资源层面上能够在利率市场化进程中表现突出的公司。

"See big this year is the background of the interest rate marketization,Not only is this year,And even in the coming years,Think about financial investment should be based on market-oriented interest rate as a starting point."ZhuLei explain,Interest rate marketization is the logic behind the financial industry of son between fusion,Interest rate marketization is essential for capital gradually achieve optimal allocation,To break up the monopoly in administration.so,This year is the main investment opportunities that can actively respond to,And in strategic/implementation/Resource level can in the course of interest rate liberalization distinguishing company.

  在朱磊看来,所谓“表现突出”的公司需要具备4个条件,机制科学灵活、管理层比较进取、战略布局得当、股东资源丰富。在未来市场竞争中,经营业务相对单一的公司,如果不及时转变,那么未来竞争压力会越来越大,牌照相对齐全,拥有大金融平台的公司更容易脱颖而出。

In ZhuLei seems,The so-called"distinguishing"The company needs to have four conditions,Mechanism science agile/Management is enterprising/Strategic layout properly/Shareholders rich resources.In the future market competition,Business relative single company,If you don't change in time,So the future competition will be more and more big,Licence relatively complete,With large financial platform company stand out more easily.

  具体来看,金融行业中又包含了银行、保险、券商等子行业,对于每一个子行业都需要从不同的视角进行研究分析,这也考验一个研究员功底。具有丰富投研经验的朱磊,分析起来格外轻松。

Specific to see,The financial industry and contains the bank/insurance/Brokers DengZi industry,For each is trade needs from different perspective of research and analysis,It also test a researcher skills.With rich experience ZhuLei for research,Analysis up particularly easy.

  对于银行股,目前市场对于今年的盈利增速存在着一定分歧,朱磊分析,这主要来自对今年息差的判断,今年息差下降的幅度将直接决定银行利润增长的情况。经过前期的显著上涨,目前银行股估值普遍回到1倍PB以上,未来银行股能否上涨需要观察两个因素:一是经济是否出现明显回升态势,如果出现,则市场对银行股的估值会自然还会提升;二是,银行的营收状况及息差,如果好于预期,那么其业绩也会提升。由于现在对货币政策的走向不是很清晰,所以这两个因素需要持续观察。

For bank shares,The present market for this year's profit growth there are certain differences,ZhuLei analysis,This mainly comes from this year to carry judgment,Carry this year the magnitude of the drop will directly decide the bank profit growth.After the early rise sharply,Currently, the bank stock valuations generally back to times more than PB,The future bank shares rose needs to observe whether two factors:One is the presence of economy rebounded situation,If there,The market for bank stock valuations naturally will improve;The second is,The bank's income situation and carry,If better than expected,So the performance is improved.Now due to the trend of the monetary policy is not very clear,So these two factors need to continue to look at.

  理论上来说保险会受损于利率市场化,在股市并非特别好时,保险今年的基本面会比较平淡,但是保险股的估值非常便宜,在此背景下,相对看好具有综合金融优势的公司。如果未来利率下行,那么保险公司的产品吸引力会逐步提升,保险股的投资机会也会随之增加。

Theory for insurance will be damaged in the interest rate marketization,In the stock market is not particularly good,Insurance fundamentals can compare light this year,But insurance stock valuations are very cheap,In this context,Relative value has comprehensive financial advantage of the company.If the future interest rates down,The insurance company's products appeal will be promoted step by step,Insurance stocks investment opportunities will also increased.

  券商股方面,去年券商股估值提升充分反映了改革的预期,走出了一波行情,未来2-3年朱磊会更关注券商上市公司在创新的预期下业绩兑现的过程,包括政策落实情况、券商在创新业务方面开展的情况。如果业绩逐步兑现,那么券商股还将向上,反之,券商股未来存在压力。

Stock brokers in,Last year brokers share valuations ascension fully reflect the reform expected,Out of a wave quotation,The next two to three years ZhuLei will pay more attention to the innovation of the securities listed companies under the expected performance of the process of cash,Including the policy implementation/Brokers in innovation in business situation.If performance gradually to cash,So brokers shares will be upward,and,Brokers strands of future existence pressure.

  对于如何通过研究规避来自金融领域的“黑天鹅”,朱磊认为,无论研究任何行业均需要规避潜在的“黑天鹅”,但是在不同市场环境下研究工作应有所侧重。市场不好、经济增速下降时,研究工作的重点是排除存在业绩“地雷”、经营存在较大风险的公司;当市场恢复好转时则应重点挖掘具有增长潜力的公司。建信投研团队配合紧密,来自研究员的调研信息和心得可以第一时间传递给基金经理,一套完整的机制体系保证了研究能够及时为投资提供支持,也为建信基金能够保持业绩稳健增长,不出现踩雷事件提供了保障。(曹淑彦)

Through the study on how to avoid from the financial sector"Black swan",ZhuLei think,No matter any industry research are need to avoid potential"Black swan",But in different market environment research work has the stress should be.Market bad/Economic growth fall,Research work is focused on the remove the existing performance"mines"/There is a big risk management of the company;When the market recovery is better should focus on mining has the potential for growth of the company.Built for inquiry letter with team closely,Researchers from the research information and insights of the first time can be passed to the fund manager,A complete set of mechanism system ensures that the research can provide support for investment in time,Also built letter fund to maintain steady growth performance,Don't appear on thunder event to provide the safeguard.(CaoShuYan)

 

 



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