外资投资出现下降意味着什么

Foreign investment decline mean

　　可以想见，在现今的中国经济局面和世界经济大环境下，靠政府的基建投资来继续拉动中国经济的发展是难以持续且十分危险的。而靠技术创新和产业升级，从外资投资反应和现今的实际状况来看并不足以支撑中国经济的进一步增长

Can see,In the current China's economic situation and the world economic environment,Rely on the government's infrastructure investment to continue to pull the development of China's economy is unsustainable and very dangerous.And by technical innovation and industrial upgrading,From foreign investment reaction and today's actual situation is not enough to support China's further economic growth

　　| 文 ·本刊特约记者 李长风

| Evan the stringer LiChangFeng

　　根据商务部公布的数据，从2012年1月到12月，全国新批准设立外商投资企业24,000多家，同比下降10%左右；实际使用外资金额1,117亿美元，同比下降了3.7%，外资投资出现了明显的下降。这说明了什么？与很多人看法不同，笔者并不认为造成这一现象的主要原因是由于经济结构调整造成的。

According to data released by the ministry of commerce,From January 2012 to December,The newly approved the establishment of a foreign investment enterprise 24,More than 000 home,About 10% year-on-year drop;Actual use of foreign capital amount 1,11.7 billion dollars,A 3.7% decline from a year earlier,Foreign investment appeared significantly reduced.This shows that???????And many different views,The author does not think that cause this phenomenon is the major reason caused due to the readjustment of the economic structure.

　　实际上，在笔者看来，造成2012年外资投资下降的主要原因是，由于外资企业面对政府进行的结构调整长期难达预期后，调低了中国经济增长预期的主动避险行为。从宏观方面来看，中国经济开始进入高速增长的后期，未来增长趋缓将是大概率事件。这可以从中国经济的三驾马车2012年尽皆动力不足看出端倪，特别是在投资上，由政府主导的投资行为边际效应逐年下降，有效投资更多地出现在靠市场调整的那只手上。而从近现代世界各国经济发展状况来看，当经济由有效投资支撑高增长转为消费支撑时，也就是经济增长开始放缓的前兆。

In fact,The author seems to be in,Cause 2012 foreign investment is the main reason of the decline,Because of the foreign capital enterprise in the face of the government structure adjustment of long-term difficult after expected,Turn down the Chinese economic growth expected active hedge behavior.From the macro perspective,China's economic growth began to enter into the later,Future growth slowing will be big probability event.This can be seen in China's economic troika 2012 do all underpowered see clue,Especially in investment,The government-led investment behavior marginal effect decreases year by year,Effective investment more appeared in the market adjustment by the hand.And from the modern economic development of all countries in the world situation,When the economic growth by effective investment support to the consumer support,Is the economic growth began to slow precursors.

　　纵观过去的中国经济，三段波浪的底部都是依靠改革走出了经济的泥沼。那么这三次改革的核心是什么呢？就是加快发展市场经济，释放多余劳动力。不久前，李克强总理再次提到城镇化，这不失为释放劳动力的一个方法，但问题是，这样再次用政府调控的方式拨动劳动力的供给还能适应现今的中国经济情况吗？

In the past China's economy,Three sections of the bottom of the waves is rely on reform out of the economic mire.So the three reform's core is what?Is to accelerate the development of market economy,Release the surplus labor force.Not long ago,Prime minister li keqiang again mentioned urbanization,This is a way to release the labor force,But the problem is,So again with government regulation way toggle labor supply can also adapt to the current situation of China's economy?

　形势变化了 Situation has changed

　　不久前，一位美国朋友对笔者说：“中国经济以平均增速超过9%的高速增长持续了近30年，这在世界经济史中，是绝无仅有的。”可遗憾的是，这样的增长可能真的难以持续了。这样的证据有两点，第一点是，由于发达国家的量化宽松政策应该会使它们的一部分投资外迁到新兴市场国家。这时，处于发展中国家先锋位置的中国、印度和巴西应得到格外关注，但现实和这样的原因截然相反，应造成外资投资的上涨流动性，反映在现实中却是外资投资出现下降。

Not long ago,An American friend said to the author:"China's economic growth by an average of more than 9% of the high speed growth continued for nearly thirty years,The history in the world economy,Is a masterpiece."But it is a pity that,Such growth may really difficult to lasted.There are two such evidence,The first point is,Due to the developed countries of the quantitative easing policy should be made part of them until the investment to the emerging market countries.At this time,In developing countries vanguard position of China/India and Brazil should be pay close attention to,But the reality and the cause of such opposite,Should cause foreign investment increases liquidity,Reflected in reality is foreign investment decline.

　　第二点是，2013年初，国家能源局发布了2012年全社会用电量数据，根据该数据显示，2012年全社会用电量同比增长5.5％，与2011年（11.7％）相比下降50%。其中，中国的第二产业用电量占全国用电总量的比重为73.9％，同比下降了1.1个百分点；第三产业用电量占比为11.5％，同比上升了0.7个百分点。这也意味着中国的经济形式变化了。

The second point is,At the beginning of 2013,National energy bureau released 2012 full social power consumption data,According to the data display,In 2012, the whole society a year-on-year increase of 5.5% power consumption,And 2011 years(11.7%)Drop compared to 50%.the,China's second industrial electricity consumption accounts for the proportion of total power consumption is 73.9%,A 1.1% decline from a year earlier;The third industry power consumption accounts for more than 11.5%,0.7% year-on-year.This also means that China's economy has changed.

　　这在政府投资上表现得格外明显。一直以来，中国各级政府推动的大规模基建投资从未停止，为满足这些投资的需求，中国的制造业企业生产了大量的机械产品，但现在，包括高速公路、高铁、机场、码头、政府大楼，乃至绝大部分城市的基础设施已基本完成并趋于饱和，这也直接造成了2012年各企业去库存化的困局。一些制造业企业甚至诉苦说，自己行业现在生产的产品在未来20年也消化不完。

The government investment played particularly apparent.Has been,Governments at all levels in China to promote large-scale infrastructure investment never stop,In order to meet the needs of these investments,China's manufacturing enterprise produces a great deal of mechanical products,But now,Including highway/High iron/airport/terminal/The government building,And most of the city's infrastructure has been completed and tends to saturation,This is also directly caused 2012 each enterprise to inventory of this change.Some manufacturing enterprise even complained,Their industry is now the production of products in the next two years after digestion.

　　对于这一现象，国务院参事室特约研究员姚景源认识很深刻，他认为，一直以来中国大量的投资是源于大量的信贷，在过去四年中，中国的M2货币增发迅速，十年间从15万亿增长到943,700百亿，M2发行增长6倍。如果从历史来看，中国从1949年建国到2012年已有63年，其中，从1949年到2011年中国所有的贷款加在一起共发行了55万亿人民币，但在这55万亿贷款当中，2008年、2009年、2010年、2011年四年占了一半，大概为28万亿，很显然，这样的情况是不可持续的。

For this phenomenon,The state council advisory office special researcher YaoJingYuan know very deep,He thinks,Since China's large investment is from a lot of credit,In the past four years,China's M2 money issues quickly,Ten years from 15 trillion increase to 943,7 trillion,M2 growth issue 6 times.If from history,China from 1949 to 2012, the founding of the more than 63 years,the,From 1949 to 2011, all China's loan together issued a total of 55 trillion yuan,But in the 55 trillion of loans,In 2008,/In 2009,/In 2010,/In 2011, four years in half,Probably for 28 trillion,obviously,This situation is unsustainable.

　　正是由于投资的两重性：当投入的时候产生需求，拉动经济，但当投资完成，项目从开工变成完工，需求就变成了供给，而一个国家长时间以来投资拉动供给，而消费迟迟难以展开，就会造成产能过剩。“中国现在遇到的就是这个问题。”过去，中国长时间依赖投资拉动经济，形成了大量的生产能力，2012年，中国钢铁9亿吨的产能却只有7亿吨的销量，产品过剩2亿吨。

It is because of the investment duality:When the input produce demand,Stimulate economic,But when investment finish,The completion of the project from the start into,Demand becomes a supply,And a country long investment pull supply,And consumption was difficult to open,Can cause excess capacity."China now meet is the problem."In the past,China long time dependent on investment stimulate economic,Formed a large number of production capacity,In 2012,,The China iron and steel production capacity of 900 million tons of only 700 million tons of sales,Surplus products 200 million tons.

　　这意味着，在以后的很长一段时间里，中国的原有产业很难再像原来一样吸纳众多解放出来的劳动者，现在中国不可能像原来一样释放多余劳动力来推动经济高速发展。如果说升级转型是未来中国经济继续发展的主要“发动机”，那么现在提高劳动力素质就是这台“发动机”能否运转起来的关键。

This means that,In the future for a long time,China's original industry is hard to as they were attracting the laborer of free,China now may not like the original release as redundant labor force to promote rapid economic development.If the upgrade transformation is the future development of China's economy continues to the main"engine",So now improve the quality of the labor force is this table"engine"Can be the key to running.

　投资该投向哪里？ The investment to where?

　　那么中国经济的投资应该投向哪里呢？这应该是一个不难判断的选择——服务业。

So China's economic investment should be to where?This should be an easy judgment choice - service.

　　回顾人类近现代经济史，就不难发现，发达国家的经济发展和社会繁荣，并不仅仅是因为科技进步、制造业部门的产业升级，实际上，正是由于市场分工越来越细，生产越来越迂回，所以第三产业才有了壮大的基础。

Review of the modern human economic history,It is not difficult to find,The developed countries economic development and social prosperity,Not just because of the progress of science and technology/Manufacturing department's industrial upgrading,In fact,It is because of market division of labor is more and more fine,Production more and more detour,So the third industry to the growth of the foundation.

　　中国现在就处于这样一个节点。近几年，中国第二产业生产部门的产品总量已经是世界第一，但服务业占GDP的比例却只有发达国家的二分之一强。2011年，在美国15.9万亿美元的GDP中，服务业所创造的价值超过76%，发达国家平均都在70%以上，而同年中国这一比率只占43.1%。从这点来看，服务业发展将是未来的必然趋势。可是，哪些领域是服务业的重点呢？

China now is such a node.In recent years,China's second industry production department total product is the world first,But the proportion of service industry to GDP is only half of the developed country strong.In 2011,,In the us $15.9 trillion in GDP,The value of service industry have created more than 76%,Developed countries have an average of over 70%,But in China the rate of only 43.1%.From this point of view,The development of service industry is the inevitable trend of the future.but,What areas are the focus of the service industry "?

　　两方面，教育和金融。

Two aspects,Education and financial.

　　教育服务业是服务业提升品质的基础。一直以来，中国服务业占GDP的比例较低的原因被很多人归结于中国经济发展的再平衡问题，这有一定的道理，但最主要的原因却并非如此。让我们回想一下我们服务业的印象吧，恐怕很少有人会表示满意。海底捞凭借火锅成为现今中国炙手可热的公司之一，最主要的原因恐怕就是服务好。所以，服务的消费占GDP的比例低最主要的原因是服务业的质量差，消费者感到钱花得不值，如何教育服务业的从业者提升素质是服务业未来能否快速发展的基础。

Education service is a service industry and improve the quality of foundation.Has been,Chinese service industry accounted for the proportion of GDP is low reasons a lot of people comes down China's economic development and balance issue,This has certain truth,But the main reason for this is not the case.Let us recall our service impression it,I'm afraid very few people will be satisfied.Sea fish with hot pot has become one of China's hottest company,The main reason I'm afraid is good service.so,Service consumption accounted for the proportion of GDP is low, the main reason is due to poor quality of services,Consumers feel money's worth,How to improve quality education services practitioners is the rapid development of service industry can based.

　　金融服务业是未来经济继续发展的保证。一直以来，中国金融服务业所创造的GDP占比远远落后于发达国家的水平。中国香港这一指标为22-25%，新加坡为26%，而根据CEIC DATA数据库的统计数字，1950年，美国制造业的规模占GDP的比重高达27.03%，金融服务业只占11.49%。60年后，到了2010年，美国制造业比重下降到只有11.72%，而金融服务业的占比则提高到了20.7%。中国呢？到现在只有不到7%。

Financial services is the future of the development of the economy continues to guarantee.Has been,China's financial services created of GDP than far behind the level of developed countries.Hong Kong, China the index for 22-25%,Singapore is 26%,According to the statistics database CEIC DATA,In 1950,,The United States the size of the manufacturing industry in GDP is as high as 27.03%,Financial services only 11.49%.Sixty years later,By 2010,The proportion of American manufacturing down to only 11.72%,And financial services for the than has been increased to 20.7%.China??To now only less than 7%.

　　可以想见，在现今的中国经济局面和世界经济大环境下，靠政府的基建投资来继续拉动中国经济的发展是难以持续且十分危险的。而靠技术创新和产业升级，从外资投资反应和现今的实际状况来看并不足以支撑中国经济的进一步增长。中国经济如果想要继续增长，还要遵循人类现代社会经济发展的一般法则，发展服务业，而如果要得到一个又快又好的服务业形势，教育和金融无疑是优先的两大选择。

Can see,In the current China's economic situation and the world economic environment,Rely on the government's infrastructure investment to continue to pull the development of China's economy is unsustainable and very dangerous.And by technical innovation and industrial upgrading,From foreign investment reaction and today's actual situation is not enough to support China's further economic growth.China's economy if you want to continue to grow,To follow the modern human social and economic development of the general rule,Development services,And if you want to get a fast and good service situation,Education and financial is undoubtedly the first two choice.