据媒体报道，1月底私募一哥徐翔与安信程定华谈话，席间谈话内容被李姓销售偷偷录音并泄露给其他券商和媒体。谈话内容包括2月底机构将会出货，水泥、地产5月份将会暴跌，如果七八月份经济不能迎来强复苏，则A股将可能崩盘，弱市中看好医药及酒业板块等。

According to media reports,At the end of a private one XuXiang and access ChengDingHua conversation,Table conversation contents are those named li account sales secretly recorded and leak to other brokers and media.At the end of a conversation including 2 institutions will delivery,cement/The real estate may will collapse,If the economy can't have strong recovery in August,The A shares may collapse,Weak market value in medicine and wine plate, etc.

　　近日，该录音被媒体曝光，以下为录音内容整理：

recently,The recording media exposure,The following is the recording content arrangement:

　　程定华：看涨的逻辑，我不大看估值，看逻辑的破坏。大概原因有2个，一是，10月份后整个新股发行已实质性停掉，市场购买量变小；二是，10月份之后整个经济的方向在变好，最近各行业都在变好，大家对整个经济向上不在怀疑。经济在向上供应量在变少，所以市场会起来。

ChengDingHua:Bullish logic,I don't see valuations,See the destruction of logic.Probably the reason has two,One is,In October after the ipo has substantial stop,Market buying smaller;The second is,In October, the direction of the economy after the better,Recently various industries are better,Everyone on the whole economy up not in doubt.Economy in upward supply in less,So the market will rise.

　　行情要结束，就是要破坏这两个逻辑：3月份会破坏其中一个，3月份后估计融资再融资会再重新恢复，不管以什么形式恢复，对市场都是利空。

Quotation to end,Is to destroy the two logic:March will destroy one,After march estimate financing and financing will be restored,No matter what form to restore,The market is bad.

　　徐翔：新股是从10月开始停掉的，为什么股市从12月才开始起来呢？

XuXiang:New shares from October stopped,Why the stock market from December began to rise?

　　程定华：10月份周期股就开始变强了，大家没有意识到。海螺水泥(600585,股吧)等公司10月都开始变强，大家都认为是十八大召开，IPO会恢复，11月底明确知道不会恢复，到12月份市场开始回补。

ChengDingHua:October cycle stock began to better,We didn't realize that.Conch cement(600585,guba)Companies such as October began to strengthen,Everybody believes that is held at eighteen,IPO will resume,By the end of November clearly know not be returned,In December, the market began to covering.

　　周期股的走强，重卡水泥在12月之前就已经出现低点。

Cycle strands of stronger,Heavy card cement in December before have been low.

　　3月份其中一个逻辑会破坏，2月下旬第一波会结束，幅度不会特别大。成长股和主题投资为主，一般周期股不大会动，若指数深度调整，地产可能会动一下。调整也是比较浅的调整，调整比较深的是水泥汽车等。活跃的应该是比较小一点的股票，指数相对比较安全，没有新的主线。

March one logic will destroy,Late February first wave will end,Amplitude not particularly big.Growth stock and theme investment primarily,The general cycle stock does not move,If the index depth adjustment,The real estate may move.Adjustment is also quite shallow adjustment,Adjustment is deep is the cement truck, etc.Active should be more small stock,Index is relatively safe,No new main.

　　徐翔：为什么是三月份？

XuXiang:Why is march?

　　程定华：从管理层了解的结果，是这样的。证监会主席换好，银监会保监会证监会总要有2个主席要换的，但是换谁还不知道。郭树清也是在考虑之列，所以大家还不知道他是否会调整。新总理上来后，指数估计在2300-2400左右，IPO恢复的条件就成熟了。

ChengDingHua:From the result of management to understand,Is such.Securities regulatory commission chairman in good,The CBRC circ CSRC will have 2 President to change,But in who still don't know.GuoShuQing is in consideration of the column,So you still don't know whether he will adjust.The new prime minister after come up,Index estimated at around 2300-2400,IPO recovery conditions are mature.

　　徐翔：那你觉得现在这一波会怎么样呢？是真实复苏吗？

XuXiang:Do you think it a wave?Recovery is true?

　　程定华：到目前为止，到二季度为止，方向是不会结束的。需要考虑的是，二季度后复苏是结束还是加强了，这是关键。现在大家都没有足够的证据，来说明年二季度经济的情况。经济学家认为今年是弱复苏，7.8-8.2之间。脱离这个区间，与预期不一致。二季度后经济不是超过8.2就会向7.8以下衰退。若向8.2以上复苏，今年会出现第二波行情。预计在5、6月份。

ChengDingHua:So far,So far to the second quarter,Direction is not the end.Consideration,After the end of the second quarter recovery is still strengthened,This is the key.Now everybody do not have enough evidence,Next year for the second quarter economic situation.Economists think that this year is weak recovery,7.8 8.2.From the interval,And expectations are not consistent.After the second quarter economic is not more than 8.2 to 7.8 the recession.If above 8.2 to recovery,This year will be the second wave quotation.Is expected to 5/June.

　　第二波时，方向就不在水泥、钢铁上，将直奔上游，在煤炭、有色、农产品、房地产四个方面，与价格相关的，偏上游。

When the second wave,Direction would not be in cement/On iron and steel,Will go straight to the upstream,In coal/non-ferrous/Agricultural products/Real estate four aspects,And price related,Partial upstream.

　　现在煤炭有色是很苦的，因为价格不动，这些行业不会有明显变动。一旦GDP超过8.5，全球就会看中国的数据或炒资源价格，直奔上游，跳过中下游，四大行业将成为最牛四大行业。到三季度后第四季度市场会崩盘：价格水平比较高，若二季度能看到8.6%增速，四季度CPI一定在3.5以上，价格将很快垮掉。这个情况与04年头一模一样，涨的快跌的快。若四季度CPI在3.5或4以上，14年将击穿1950点。从前的经济弹性很大，但现在是一个非常高负债的经济体，各方面都绷得很紧。

Now coal non-ferrous is very bitter,Because the price is not moving,These industries will not have obvious change.Once the GDP more than 8.5,Global will see China's data or Fried resources price,Straight to upstream,Skip the middle and lower reaches,Four big industry will become the most cow four big industry.After the third quarter to the fourth quarter of the market will crash:The price level is higher,If the second quarter can see 8.6% growth,The fourth quarter CPI must be more than 3.5,The price will soon collapse.The situation and the year as like as two peas,A fast falling fast.If the fourth quarter CPI in 3.5 or 4 or above,14 years will breakdown 1950 points.Once upon a time of great economic elasticity,But now is a very highly indebted economies,All aspects are's tight.

　　若真的是若复苏，那今年的高点在2、3月份。

If really is if the recovery,That this year's high in 2/In march.

　　徐翔：弱复苏与强复苏的区别？

XuXiang:Weak recovery and the difference between the strong recovery?

　　程定华：经济增长超过8.2，比预期高，8.5-9是远远超出预期。若到8.5-9，能上2600点左右。第二波将会非常快而猛，但随后基本上完蛋了。

ChengDingHua:Economic growth more than 8.2,Higher than expected,8.5-9 is much faster than expected.If to 8.5-9,To go to about 2600 points.The second wave will be very fast and fierce,But then basically finished.

　　3月份之前，保留银行地产，加上医药、TMT。现在是垃圾时间，指数不会有太大的变动。市场是比较安全的。若经济接着上，那么水泥钢铁也不会再涨，煤炭有色会涨，但是其价格还没涨。2月下旬，人人都要减仓，5、6月份是决定胜负的时候。

Before march,Reserve bank real estate,Plus medicine/TMT.Now is the time to waste,Index won't have too big change.The market is safer.If the economy then,So cement steel also won't go up again,Coal nonferrous will rise,But its price also have not risen.Late February,Everyone will decrease a storehouse,5/June is the decisive time.

　　若没有强复苏(99%预测弱复苏和1%预测不复苏)，5.6月份周期股将跌的一塌糊涂包括汽车、钢铁水泥。资产配置又回到医药白酒，银行将会稍微好一点。

If there is no strong recovery(99% forecast weak recovery and 1% can not predict recovery),5.6 month period shares will fall in including car/Steel cement.Asset allocation and back to medicine liquor,The bank will be slightly better.

　　徐翔：白酒为什么要在经济没有强复苏的时候起来？

XuXiang:Why liquor in the economy is not strong recovery time up?

　　程定华：因为现在便宜，一季度的数据，可以看出去年塑化剂的冲击。若冲击很大，3、4月份将跌，反应完成。经济不复苏，不玩白酒玩什么？

ChengDingHua:Because now cheap,Quarter data,Can see that the impact of the plasticizer last year.If a great impact,3/April will fall,reaction.Economic recovery,Don't play liquor play???????

　　药是长期配置主题，任何时候都不能作为低配。人口老龄化决定未来三十年。指数不行的时候，往医药跑，是稳定的。医药是个必需品，没有大的风险。

Medicine is long-term configuration theme,Any time can match as low.An aging population to decide the future thirty years.Index no good,To run medical,Is stable.Medicine is a necessity,There was no big risk.

　　今年二季度是不会出现强复苏，主要是今年是否有经济中的投资？政府投资规模有多大，新型城镇化发改委正在编制，3月份会出。即使出来，到了地方，执行过程中，会不会变形。

In the second quarter of this year is not appear strong recovery,Main is this year if there is the economic investment?How big is the government investment,The new urbanization development and reform commission is compiled,March will be out.Even out,Went to a place,In the implementation process,Will deformation.

　　没人搞得清楚房地产投资，市场预测明年有40-50的增速。12月房地产销售情况显示，明年不可能只有40-50的增速。

Nobody make clear real estate investment,Market forecast next forty - s growth.December real estate sales information display,Next year may not only forty - s growth.

　　这两块变数太大，现在没法预测，最好的方法是观察并且应对，3月份固定资产投资增速，21水平定义为弱复苏。消费和进出口无需看。3.4.5月份固定资产投资在20-21，可以确定弱复苏。若在24-25，可以认为是强复苏。

These two pieces of variables is too big,Now can't predict,The best way is to observe and deal with,Fixed asset investment growth in March,21 level defined as weak recovery.Consumption and import and export need not see.In 3.4.5 fixed assets investment in the twenty - 21,Weak recovery can be determined.If in the 24-25,Can be considered a strong recovery.

　　申万认为不复苏，一直看空。

"Don't think all recovery,Always look empty.

　　徐翔：会不会城镇化低于预期？

XuXiang:Urbanization will below expectations?

　　程定华：2月底减仓，若低于预期，仓位已经减了也无所谓。比较怕的是高预期。

ChengDingHua:February decrease a storehouse,If less than expected,Positions have reduced also doesn't matter.Is afraid of is high expectations.

　　经济强劲复苏，短期很爽，但是只有一把。

Strong economic recovery,Short-term great,But only one.

　　现在市场利率水平在7-8，大家在做预算的时候，还钱的时候按照7-8，日子比较痛苦。没有大规模的金融风险，没有系统性风险。通胀到4-5时，影子银行的利率将上升到10以上，一旦有调控，出现紧缩，企业将无力还钱，出现系统性断裂。以目前状态，影子银行利率水平冲不到11-12的话，下来之后，将出现巨大风险。不是历史上简单的重复。

Now the market interest rate level in seven to eight,Everyone in the budget,Also money according to the seven or eight,Day is pain.No large-scale financial risk,No systemic risk.Inflation to 4-5,Shadow bank interest rates will rise to more than ten,As soon as control,Appear tightening,Enterprise will be unable to return money,Appear systemic fracture.At the current state,Shadow bank interest rates impact less than 11-12 words,Down after,There will be great risk.History is not the simple repetition.

　　徐翔：强复苏和弱复苏的区别？

XuXiang:Strong recovery and weak recovery difference?

　　程定华：主要体现在中央投资和地产投资。

ChengDingHua:Mainly reflects in the central investment and real estate investment.

　　中央投资：铁路轨交、新城镇化。铁路审批的规模已经很大了，但新型城镇化还不知道。发改委目前在做城镇化的规划，很快将征求意见，3月份将会下发。在实际执行过程中，发生很大的变形，地方政府只知道投资，别的都不记得。

The central investment:Rail into/The new urbanization.Railway approval already large scale,But the new urbanization also don't know.Development and reform commission is currently in the planning to urbanization,Will soon take advice,March will be issued.In the actual implementation process,Happen a lot of deformation,The local government only know investment,Other can't remember.

　　新型城镇化的资金来源：发改委在制定规划时，投融资体制会告诉你钱来自哪里。若来自信贷，那明年中长期信贷占比很重要。那今年信贷规模数量不小，但结构不行，偏票据。若明年9万亿信贷中场信贷拔掉70-80，那就已经足够了。

The new urbanization funds:Development and reform commission (NDRC) when in planning,Investment and financing system will tell you the money come from.If from the credit,The medium and long term credit accounts for next year than is very important.This year the credit scale small quantity,But the structure not,Partial bill.If next year 9 trillion credit midfielder credit pulled out 70-80,That is enough.

　　徐翔：是否会有坏账？

XuXiang:Will there be a bad debt?

　　程定华：不放贷就当场死，放贷就延期死。解决这个问题很难。银行若不贷款，那企业立即形成坏账，与光伏很像。上半年有些企业生产出来的现金，都无法覆盖不包含折旧的成本，但还在生产。一旦不生产就要提出清算，申请破产了。一清算资产被变卖，都不值钱了。

ChengDingHua:Don't lend died,Lending will delay death.To solve this problem is very difficult.If the bank loan,The enterprise immediately form bad debt,And pv is very much like.In the first half of some enterprise production out of cash,Can cover does not include the cost of depreciation,But also in the production.Once the production will propose the liquidation,Apply for bankruptcy.A liquidation assets are sold,Are a dime a dozen.

　　省公路集团已省政府的财政在作质押，14%的利率，一年期，向私募借钱。虽然省政府财政不能质押，但私募还在做。银行不借。整个利率和资金系统都崩的比较紧，所以这次一旦出现高通胀和紧缩，一定要把股票全部清空。

Provincial highway group has the provincial government financial in pledge,A 14% interest rate,one-year,Borrow money to private.Although the provincial government finance can't pledge,But private still do.The bank won't lend.The interest rates and financial system of the collapse is tight,So this once appear, high inflation and deflation,Must the stock all empty.

　　徐翔：目前点位如何配置？

XuXiang:At present how to configure point?

　　程定华：银行、地产+成长股。风险不大，银行不一定有超额收益，地产还是有可能的。1、2月的销售数据好于预期的概率高。万一指数向下，要靠银行要来撑住指数的。

ChengDingHua:The bank/Real estate + growth stock.Risk is not big,The bank do not have the extra income,Real estate is still possible.1/2 months of sales data better than expected high probability.One thousand index downward,Want to rely on Banks to brace index.

　　现在做主题投资和成长投资的黄金时间，还有2个月。过了这连个月要么上游、要么医药白酒。如果不出现巨大的风险，中国投资者的交易习惯改不了。每年这个时候主题投资创业板都会出来，是纯粹的交易习惯。

Now do theme investment and growth of investment in prime time,There are two months.After the even months either upstream/Or medicine liquor.If you don't appear great risk,Chinese investors trading habits change.At this time of the year theme investment gem will come out,Is pure trading habits.