钟正生

ZhongZhengSheng

　　随着2012年货币金融数据悉数公布，我国是否存在“货币超发”的争论又有重燃之势。

With the 2012 monetary and financial data published in,Our country whether there is"Monetary super hair"Debate and reignition of potential.

　　这一争论涉及的关键经济指标就是M2/GDP。这本是用于度量一个经济体货币化程度的通行指标，但被许多人视为判断央行是否无节制印钞的指引。

The argument key economic indicators is M2 / GDP.This is used to measure an economy monetization degree of passing index,But is considered by many to judge whether central Banks incontinence print chao guidance.

　　

M2/GDP不是度量货币超发的准确指标 M2 / GDP is not measure monetary super hair of accurate indicator

　　简单地说，一国M2/GDP的上升，货币政策调控、经济货币化的深入和金融结构的演进都是潜在影响因素。因此，在涉及“货币超发”问题时，需要综合分析，切忌以偏概全。

Say simply,One country M2 / GDP rise,Monetary policy/Economic monetization deeply and financial structure evolution are potential impact factors.so,In the case of"Monetary super hair"problems,Need comprehensive analysis,Avoid by all means is biased.

　　以M2/GDP水平过高指责央行“货币超发”恰恰犯了以偏概全的毛病。

To M2 / GDP levels accused the central bank"Monetary super hair"Just make the halo effect problem.

　　因为，中国货币化进程已在放缓，城镇化是货币化的最主要推动力。2012年中国城镇化率已超过52%。

because,China monetization process has set up a file in the slow,Urbanization is the main driving force monetization.In 2012, China's urbanization rate has more than 52%.

　　按照日韩的经验，中国城镇化水平与世界平均水平仍有差距。但即便现在有了新型城镇化战略的助推，要想继续保持1994~2012年间城镇化率年均提升1.3%的势头殊为不易，甚至可以说不太可能。 因此，中国城镇化进程的放缓必然会带来货币化进程的放缓。

According to the experience of Japan and South Korea,China's urbanization level and the average level in the world is still a gap.But even now have a new urbanization strategy of booster,If you want to continue to maintain 1994 ~ 2012 annual urbanization rate increases momentum is not easy to production,Even is unlikely. so,China's urbanization will bring the slowdown in the process of the slowdown.

　　将近年来中国M2/GDP的上升完全归结为央行大开流动性总闸门也不科学。这是因为，中国高企的储蓄率和间接融资主导的金融结构在发挥着关键作用。

Nearly years China's M2 / GDP rise completely owing to big central bank liquidity total gate is not scientific.This is because,China's high savings rate and indirect financing leading financial structure plays a key role.

　　一方面，中国储蓄率从1992年的38.8%一路升至2011年的52%。企业储蓄率则从1992年的32.2%升至2011年的42.8%。由于可供选择的投资渠道有限，大量的企业和居民储蓄便沉淀在商业银行体系中，从而导致货币供应量M2迅速攀升。

On the one hand,China's savings rate from 38.8% in 1992 to 52% in 2011 all the way.Enterprise savings rate is from 32.2% in 1992 to 42.8% in 2011.Due to the selection of limited investment channels,A large number of enterprises and residents savings and precipitation in the commercial bank system,Leading to money supply M2 rising rapidly.

　　另一方面，近年来我国直接融资迅速发展，“影子银行”规模不断膨胀，但以间接融资为主的融资结构并未根本改变。央行在《2011年中国金融稳定报告》中指出，以间接融资为主的国家，M2/GDP比重普遍高于以直接融资为主的国家。

On the other hand,In China in recent years the rapid development of direct financing,"Shadow Banks"Scale expanding,But indirect finance, a leading financing structure did not change fundamentally.The central bank in[In 2011, the Chinese financial stability report]that,Indirect finance, a leading countries,M2 / GDP is higher than the proportion of direct financing is generally in the country.

　　这是因为，间接融资比重高，银行资产扩张派生存款，一国货币总量相对就会较多；但直接融资只涉及货币在不同经济主体之间的转移和交换, 不会带来货币总量的增加。

This is because,Indirect financing high proportion,Bank assets expansion derived deposit,One country monetary aggregates relative will be more;But direct financing involving only currency in different economic between transfer and exchange, Will not bring the increase of monetary aggregates.

　　M2/GDP的国际比较 M2 / GDP international comparison

　　“他山之石，可以攻玉”。了解世界主要经济体M2/GDP的演变，有助于我们更加客观地看待中国的高M2/GDP现象。

"Stones from other hills,May attack the jade".The world's major economies to understand the evolution of the M2 / GDP,Help us to be more objective about China's high M2 / GDP phenomenon.

　　首先，世界M2/GDP总体呈上升趋势。该比率从1960年的55%上升至2011年的126%。上世纪80年代后，世界M2/GDP开始明显加速上扬，这与这一时期西方发达经济体经济自由化开始滥觞不无关系。

First of all,The world M2 / GDP overall shows ascendant trend.The rate rose from 55% in 1960 to 126% in 2011.After the 1980 s,The world M2 / GDP accelerated became obvious,This and this period developed western economies economic liberalization began is overflowing the relationship.

　　本轮经济金融危机前，欧美发达国家维持着极其宽松的货币，该比率加速上升；危机爆发后，金融机构开启去杠杆，该比率有所回调。

This round of economic before the financial crisis,The European and American developed country maintain an extremely easy monetary,The ratio is accelerated;Crisis after the outbreak of,Financial institutions open to leverage,This ratio has callback.

　　其次，欧洲（建立欧盟后）和亚洲的M2/GDP水平明显高于世界其他地区。美国这个最发达经济体所在的北美则低于世界平均水平。2011年，欧洲、亚洲和北美的M2/GDP分别为144%、178%和86%。

secondly,The European(The European Union established after)And Asian M2 / GDP level obviously is higher than other parts of the world.The United States the most developed economies in North America is lower than the world average level.In 2011,,The European/Asia and North America's M2 / GDP is 144%/178% and 86%.

　　最后，中国的M2/GDP水平位居世界前列。与西方发达经济体相比，中国只比一衣带水的日本和加入欧元区后的德国更低。

finally,China's M2 / GDP level in the world.Compared with western developed economies,China is only a narrow strip of water of the Japanese and German after joining the euro more low.

　　2011年，日本、德国和中国的M2/GDP分别为241%、181%和180%（需要指出的是，在1999年1月1日欧元正式诞生前，德国M2/GDP比率仅从1978年的27%升至1998年的38%）。在金砖国家中，中国M2/GDP水平遥遥领先；与亚洲邻国相比，中国M2/GDP水平上升最快。

In 2011,,Japan/Germany and China's M2 / GDP is 241%/181% and 180%(It should be pointed out that,On January 1, 1999 euros before formally birth,Germany M2 / GDP ratio only from 27% in 1978 to 38% in 1998).In the nuggets in the country,China's M2 / GDP level ahead;Compared with its Asian neighbors,China's M2 / GDP level rise fastest.

　　

M2/GDP的三个特征事实 M2 / GDP three characteristics facts

　　第一，一国经济发展水平越高，M2/GDP越高。

The first,One country economic development level is higher,The higher the M2 / GDP.

　　货币经济既是一国经济货币化程度不断加深的过程，本身也是一国经济发展的题中应有之义。因此，经济发展与经济货币化“齐头并进”并不令人奇怪。

Monetary economy is an economy monetization deepening process,The economic development of a country is also one of the central topics in righteousness.so,Economic development and economic monetization"Neck and neck"Is not a strange.

　　2011年高收入国家的M2/GDP接近150%，中等收入国家和低收入国家则只有100%和50%。

2011 years of high-income countries M2 / GDP close to 150%,Middle-income countries and low-income countries, only 100% and 50%.

　　第二，一国金融脱媒程度越高，M2/GDP越低。

The second,One country financial disintermediation the higher level,M2 / GDP is lower.

　　一国金融脱媒程度的提高，也即资金绕开银行直接进行交易的比重提高，会通过两个渠道降低M2/GDP。

One country financial disintermediation degree of increase,That money around the bank directly improve the proportion of transactions,Through two channels to reduce M2 / GDP.

　　一是随着直接融资市场的壮大，沉淀在商业银行体系中的资金会相对减少，这会直接导致M2/GDP的降低。

One is along with the strengthening of direct financing market,Precipitation in the commercial bank system in funds will be relatively reduced,This will directly lead to M2 / GDP lower.

　　二是资金交易绕开了中介（商业银行），货币流通速度会相应提高。从而支撑同样速度经济增长所需的货币量倾向于减少，这会间接导致M2/GDP的降低。

The second is money trading around the intermediary(Commercial Banks),Currency circulation speed will increase.To support the same rate for economic growth of money tend to reduce,This will indirectly lead to M2 / GDP lower.

　　中国M2/GDP的高企，正与金融脱媒程度较低不无关系。M2/GDP比率超过我国的德国、日本、荷兰和葡萄牙，其间接融资“一枝独大”的格局更为明显。

China's M2 / GDP high,Positive and financial disintermediation degree is low relationship.M2 / GDP ratio more than our German/Japan/The Netherlands and Portugal,The indirect financing"A single large"The pattern is more apparent.

　　第三，M2/GDP与物价水平具有共生性。

The third,M2 / GDP and the price level is symbiosis.

　　决定M2/GDP比率的，除了经济货币化进程的深入外，央行货币政策调控也是重要因素。

Decided to M2 / GDP ratio,In addition to economic monetization process further outside,The central bank monetary policy is also an important factor.

　　现实中，在没有特定制度（比如通胀目标制）对其行为施加有效约束的情况下，央行货币政策调控往往会使货币供应增速超过名义GDP增速。这时，央行大规模印钞与真正的经济货币化进程并没有太多关联，但会让我们看到M2/GDP与CPI同步上升的现象。

reality,There is no specific system(Such as inflation targeting regime)Applied to its behavior under the condition of effective constraints,The central bank monetary policy will often make money supply growth more than nominal GDP growth.At this time,The central bank large-scale printing chao and the real economic monetization process and without too much relevance,But will let us see M2 / GDP and CPI increased phenomenon.

　　以间接融资居主导地位的日本和中国为例。日本上世纪70年代M2/GDP迅速攀升，那正是日本通胀率迭创新高的一段时期；上世纪90年代末期，日本M2/GDP急剧回落，日本开始陷入通货紧缩的泥沼。

Indirect finance in the leading position of Japan and China as an example.Japan in the 1970 s M2 / GDP rise quickly,That's what Japan inflation lap innovation high for a period of time;The 1990 s,Japan M2 / GDP fell sharply,Japan began to fall into the mire deflation.

　　在中国，M2/GDP比率的加速上行往往伴随着通货膨胀的飙升，例如上世纪80年代后期和90年代早期。进入本世纪后两者的同步性更是有所加强。

In China,M2 / GDP ratio accelerated upward often accompanied by inflation soared,Such as the late 1980 s and early 90 s.Into this century after the synchronicity of the two is to strengthen.

　　上述特征事实清楚地表明，经济货币化进程、金融结构特征和央行货币政策调控对一国M2/GDP都会产生影响。

It is clearly evident that the characteristics mentioned above,Economic monetization process/Financial structure characteristics and the central bank monetary policy of a country can influence M2 / GDP.

　　行文至此，对中国高企的M2/GDP应该多点理性认识了。那就是，维护央行的不必欲盖弥彰，指责央行的也不必以偏概全。

Style so far,On China's high M2 / GDP should know more rational.That is,Maintenance of the central bank's don't shattered glass,The central bank also need not blame the fallacy of composition.

　　（作者为光大证券(601788,股吧)宏观分析师）

(The author is everbright securities(601788,guba)Macro analysts)