贾康

Jia kang

　　财政部财政科学研究所所长

The ministry of finance financial science institute director

　　徐林

XuLin

　　国家发改委发展规划司司长

The development of the national development and reform commission GuiHuaSi priests

　　李万寿

LiWanShou

　　深圳创新投资集团有限公司总裁

Shenzhen innovation investment group co., LTD. President

　　姚余栋

Yao YuDong

　　中国人民银行货币政策司副司长

The people's bank of China monetary policy department deputy director general

　　黄剑辉

HuangJianHui

　　国家开发银行研究院副院长

The state development bank vice President of the institute

　　刘培林

LiuPeiLin

　　国务院发展研究中心研究员

The state council development research center of the researchers

　　李宏瑾

LiHongJin

　　中国人民银行营业管理部副研究员

The people's bank of China deputy researcher business management

　　未来中国的经济发展迫切需要凝聚改革共识，也强烈呼唤能促进改革的新供给经济学，并在这个理论框架下探讨“顶层设计”和“系统改革”。

The future development of China's economy urgently needs condensed reform consensus,Also strongly call can promote the reform of the new supply economics,And in this theory framework to explore"Top design"and"System reform".

　　改革的全面、协调推进将是今后决定中国现代化命运的重心与关键。为提升全面改革的可操作性，从土地制度、人口流动、公共资源配置、改善民生、优化收入分配等重大现实问题入手，也需要理论的烛照与指导，呼唤着把政治经济学、制度经济学、转轨经济学等熔于一炉的中国特色的新供给经济学。

Comprehensive reform/Coordination is the future advancement will decide the fate of China's modernization center of gravity and the key.To enhance the maneuverability of the comprehensive reform,From the land system/Population flow/Allocation of public resources/Improve the livelihood of the people/Optimization of the income distribution and the important practical problems,Also need theory perspectives and guidance,Call the political economics/Institutional economics/Transition economics and fuse in a furnace of Chinese characteristics of new supply economics.

　　我们认为，中国宏观调控中无论做何种具体的政策组合选择，客观上都需要以改革为基本依托，中国的改革攻坚和配套推进，需要以改革为核心的新供给经济学的理性认知思路来引领。

We think,China's macroeconomic regulation and control in whatever you do, what specific policy combination selection,Objectively needs to reform the basic support,China's reform crucial and supporting propulsion,The need for reform is the core of the new supply economic rational cognitive thought to lead.

　　

基本政策主张 Basic policies

　　党的十八大指出：“我们必须清醒认识到，我国处于并将长期处于社会主义初级阶段的基本国情没有变，人民日益增长的物质文化需要同落后的社会生产之间的矛盾这一社会主要矛盾没有变，我国是世界最大发展中国家的国际地位没有变”。这“三个没有变”体现的国情特征以及我国13亿人口的消费品市场的供给端呈现为“本国生产为主，海外进口为辅”的特点，决定了中国在相当长时期内经济领域的主要矛盾是在供给端。

The party's eighteen big points out:"We must awake to realize,China is in long-term and in the primary stage of socialism's basic national conditions does not change,The people's growing material and cultural needs and backward social production contradiction between the main social contradiction does not change,China is the world's largest developing country's international status does not change".this"Three does not change"Reflect national characteristics as well as our country population of 1.3 billion consumer goods market supply end appears as"Domestic production primarily,Overseas import an ounce of prevention is worth a"characteristics,Decided to the Chinese in a quite long period in the field of economy is the principal contradiction in the supply end.

　　从经济生活的实际情况看，近年国庆期间“火车票一票难求”、“高速路车满为患”、“旅游景点人声鼎沸”等现象，以及房价房租不断上涨的趋势、看病难看病贵、上学难学费贵等问题，都清楚地表明了我国有着巨大的真实需求，而结构性供给不足的矛盾十分突出且将长期存在。

From the economic life of realities,In recent years, during the National Day"A train ticket is hard to find"/"CheManWeiHuan highway"/"Tourist attractions a hubbub of voices"Wait for a phenomenon,And the rent house prices rising trend/The doctor to see a doctor to you/School fees to your problems,Have made it clear that our country has great real demand,Supply shortages and structural contradiction is very outstanding and will be there for a long time.

　　由此，我们的基本政策主张是中国未来的宏观政策取向核心是深入贯彻“发展是硬道理”的战略方针并升华为“科学发展是硬道理”层面，通过改革开放不断解放和发展生产力来提升农业、工业、基础设施和服务业、文化产业、生态环境产业等方面的供给能力，通过发展实体经济、促进就业、改善生态达到建设“幸福中国”、“美丽中国”、“和谐中国”发展目标，最终实现以中华民族伟大复兴为标志的“中国梦”，并为全球经济发展做出应有贡献，使人类的共同家园“地球村”成为“和谐世界”。

this,Our basic policy that is China's future macro policy orientation core is thoroughly apply"Development is the absolute principle"Strategic policy and for sublimation"The scientific development is the hard truth"level,Through the reform and opening up continuously emancipate and develop the productive forces to promote agriculture/industrial/Infrastructure and services/Culture industry/The ecological environment of the industries supply capacity,Through the development of the real economy/Promote employment/To improve the ecological construction"Happy Chinese"/"Beautiful China"/"Harmonious China"Development goals,To realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation for logo"China dream",And for the global economy development to make due contributions,Makes the human common homeland"Global village"become"Harmonious world".

　　已有的一种分析认识是强调：仅靠推进“比较优势”战略尚不足以支撑实现“中国梦”的宏伟目标，作为中国之必然选择的“三步走”赶超战略，需要更为全面、丰富、科学的理论和政策设计来支撑决策。

Have a kind of analysis knowledge is emphasized:Only on promoting"Comparative advantage"Strategy is insufficient to support to realize"China dream"The grand goal of the,As China of the inevitable choice"Three steps"Surpassing strategy,Need more comprehensive/rich/Scientific theory and policy designed to support decision making.

　　我们对当前中国的具体经济政策主张，可概述为：建议着重从供给端入手推进我国经济实现“双创、双化、双减、双扩、双进、双到位”；而对备受各方关注的“通胀问题”，则不宜简单直接套用美国主要从需求端入手加以调控的模式，而应当确立“物价上涨”不等于“通胀”的基本理念，并积极构建与我国经济发展阶段、发展水平及市场供求结构相适应的物价调控模型和机制。

We to the current China's specific economic policies,Can outline for:Suggest emphatically from the supply end of the advance our country economic realization"Double and/Double change/ShuangJian/Double expansion/Double into/Double in place";But to the parties concerned"Inflation problem",, should not be simple and direct form the United States mainly from the demand side of the model to control,And the establishment of"prices"Is not equal to"inflation"The basic idea of,And actively construct and China's economic development stage/Development level and the market supply and demand structure corresponds to the price regulation model and mechanism.

　　

走创新型国家之路 Walk the path of innovative country

　　面对新一轮生产力革命（“第三次产业革命”）的挑战，我国为实现可持续发展，必须走创新型国家之路。从1840年起，中国从农业经济转向工业经济的阶段，时间之长，代价之大，是谁都没有想到的。农业技术的高水平，并不是工业革命发生的充分条件，中国在18世纪、19世纪相对欧洲具有高水平的农业技术，却错过了工业革命机遇，就是明证。

In the face of a new round of productivity revolution("The third industrial revolution")challenge,For the realization of sustainable development in our country,Have to walk the path of innovative country.Since 1840,China from agricultural economy to industrial economy stage,Time long,Cost of,Who didn't think of.A high level of agricultural technology,The industrial revolution happened is not sufficient condition,China in the eighteenth century/The 19th century Europe has relatively high level of agricultural technology,But missed the opportunity of the industrial revolution,Is proof.

　　目前“中国制造”的成功并不能保证中国新经济(310358,基金吧)的出现。从长期来看，中国经济需要在高端“买不来的技术”领域靠自主创新，艰难前行，最终建成“创新型国家”，才能完成从工业经济到与“第三次产业革命”接轨的“中国新经济”的艰难转轨。

At present"Made in China"Success does not ensure that China's new economy(310358,Fund it)appear.In the long run,The Chinese economy needs in the high-end"Can't buy technology"On the field of independent innovation,arduous,Finally built"Innovative country",To finish from industrial economy to the and"The third industrial revolution"connected"China's new economic"Difficult transition.

　　可以预计，信息产业、新能源产业、生物产业和纳米产业等战略性新兴产业可能成为中国经济的新引擎。在此过程中，科技创新客观需要以制度创新和运行机制的改造为关键性的支撑。就中国特色转轨道路上的创新特色而言，我们可以强调：“制度高于技术”。

Can be estimated,Information industry/New energy industry/Biological industry and nano industry and strategic emerging industry of China's economy may become the new engine.In the process,Science and technology innovation objective need to system innovation and operation mechanism of transformation for key support.Chinese characteristic transition on the road of innovation in terms of features,We can emphasize:"System above technology".

　　必须深化科技体制改革，完善支持自主创新和成果转化的政策体系，引导各类创新主体加大研发投入，调动社会各方面参与和推动自主创新的积极性。完善以企业为主体、市场为导向、产学研结合的技术创新体系。加强创新型人才队伍建设，重视培养引进高科技领军人才。培育创新文化(300336,股吧)、保护创新热情、宽容创新挫折，形成有利于创新的全社会氛围。

Must deepen the reform of the science and technology system,Perfect support independent innovation and achievements of the policy system,Guide all kinds of innovation main body increasing spending on research,Mobilize all social participation and promote the enthusiasm of independent innovation.To improve the enterprise as the main body/The market as the guidance/With the combination of technical innovation system.Strengthen the innovative talents team construction,Attaches great importance to the introduction of high-tech talent training leader.Cultivating innovative culture(300336,guba)/Protect innovation enthusiasm/Innovation frustration tolerance,Form is helpful to the innovation of the whole social atmosphere.

　　为支持从发展基础科研、实施国家科技重大项目到促进科技成果产业化等各方面的自主创新，必须在实行科技体制和管理体系改革、提升绩效的同时，下决心调动、引导相关各方增加科技投入。当前这方面的资金需求尚未得到很好满足，科技投入相对不足。近年中国财政对研发的投入已有明显提升，今后还需要政府对研发长期投入，并带动市场主体共同形成2020年后研发投入占GDP3%左右的格局。

To support the development of scientific research foundation/Implementation of the national science and technology major project to promote the industrialization of scientific and technological achievements and so on various aspects of the independent innovation,Must be in the science and technology system and management system reform/Improve performance at the same time,Determined to mobilize/Guide the relevant parties to increase investment in science and technology.The current the fund demand has not been very good to meet,Relatively insufficient investment in science and technology.In recent years, China's finance to r&d investment has been enhanced,In the future also needs the government to r&d investment for a long time,And drive the market main body together form 2020 years of r&d investment GDP3 % or pattern.

　　

大力鼓励创业 To encourage entrepreneurship

　　必须充分激发全社会的创造活力，鼓励全民创业，特别在中小微企业和现代服务业上。以我国人口规模，企业数量可能比现在多几倍。民营经济是经济发展的生力军。民营经济的发展质量和水平，以及升级换代的进展，在很大程度上决定了国民经济的整体素质。要以多种制度变革和政策优化为举措，支持实现民营经济新飞跃，完善和落实促进民营经济发展的政策措施，鼓励民营企业加强技术创新、管理创新、制度创新和企业文化创新，大力实施品牌战略，着力提高市场竞争能力。

Must fully arouse the creativity of the whole society,Encourage all people to start new businesses,Especially in small and medium-sized micro enterprise and the modern service industry.With our country population size,Enterprise quantity may be several times than it is now.The private economy is the main force of the economic development.The development of private economy quality and level,And the progress of upgrading,To a great extent determine the overall quality of the national economy.In a variety of system reform and policy optimization for action,Support the private economy to realize new leap,Improve and implement to promote the development of the private economy policy measures,To encourage private enterprises to strengthen technological innovation/Management innovation/System innovation and enterprise cultural innovation,To the implementation of brand strategy,Strive to improve the market competition ability.

　　国有企业需要进一步深化战略性改组，在健全国有资产管理体系和深化改革中消除过度垄断因素和优化治理结构，发挥其应有的特定功能与辐射力，与民营经济相辅相成共同发展。

The state-owned enterprise need to further deepen the strategic restructuring,In the state-owned assets management system and deepen the reform of eliminate excessive monopoly factor and optimize the governance structure,Play their due specific functions and radial force,And the private economy supplement each other common development.

　　

加快城镇化建设 To speed up the urbanization construction

　　2011年，我国以常住人口为统计基础的城市化率为51.3%，农村劳动力向非农产业和城市地区转移的动力依然强劲，这也是中国城市化的动力所在。由于城市化意味着收入的提高、消费的提升，人口的高密度聚集，以及进城农民生活和居住方式的改变，城市化毫无疑问是中国经济增长持久的内生动力。

In 2011,,Our country to permanent population for basic statistics urbanization rate was 51.3%,The rural labor to non-agricultural industries and urban areas of the transfer of power is still strong,This is also the Chinese urbanization in power.Due to the improvement of urbanization means income/Consumption of ascension,Population density gathered,And the city farmers' living and living mode change,There is no doubt that urbanization is China's economic growth lasting endogenous power.

　　城市化也意味着强烈需要供给结构的变化，城市人口的聚集和规模扩大形成的规模经济。这将大大促进产业分工的细化和就业结构的细化，同时可以促进农村土地集约使用和农业集约化经营。

Urbanization also means a strong need to supply structure changes,Urban population aggregation and scale formation of scale economy.This will greatly promote industrial division of labor and employment structure refinement of refining,At the same time can promote the rural land intensive use and agricultural intensive management.

　　在推进城镇化过程中，应根据人多地少的国情，走“大都市圈”战略，避免“四处点火”的城市布局。2011年，中国人口超过一千万的城市已经有13个。2011年，京津冀、长三角和珠三角三大都市圈(带)承载了中国28%的人口，产出了41%的GDP。

In promoting the process of urbanization,Many people and little land should be based on the national conditions,go"Metropolis circle"strategy,avoid"Around ignition"City layout.In 2011,,China's population of more than ten million city has 13.In 2011,,beijing-tianjin-hebei/Yangtze river delta and pearl river delta metropolis circle three(belt)Bearing the 28% of China's population,Output 41% of GDP.

　　应根据国际城市发展演化的规律，综合考虑水资源和环境的承载能力，提早规划若干个人口在三千万以上的“大都市圈”，最大限度地利用规模经济和劳动分工的好处，节约城市基础设施建设成本，促进服务业发展，也最大限度地节约耕地和保障粮食自给自足。

According to the international urban development should be the law of evolution,Comprehensive consideration of the water resources and environmental carrying capacity,Early planning several a population of over thirty million"Metropolis circle",Make the best use of economies of scale and the benefits of division of labor,To save the city infrastructure construction cost,To promote the development of service industry,Also maximize saving cultivated land and guarantee food self-sufficiency.

　　但引导好中国城市化的进程，发挥城市化红利，需要对阻碍城市化进程的现行户口制度以及户口附属的福利制度、农村土地制度、城市社会管理、社会保障制度、城市规划体制、行政区的协调机制等一系列制度，进行相应的变革。必须在弥合“二元经济”的历史过程中，通过制度建设、经济手段和其他各种调控手段及政策措施的优化组合，走出一条伴随新型工业化、新型服务业化，且同时推进新型城市化、农业现代化进而最终达到城乡一体化的一元经济和谐境界的“中国道路”。

But lead good China's urbanization process,Play urbanization bonus,Need to urbanization in the current account system and account attached welfare system/Rural land system/Urban social management/Social security system/Urban planning system/Administrative region coordination mechanism and a series of system,Carries on the corresponding change.Must be in close"Dual economic"In the process of history,Through the system construction/Economic means and other various control measures and policy measures of optimized combination,Out of a with new industrialization/New services change,And at the same time promote new urbanization/Agricultural modernization and eventually to achieve the integration of urban and rural areas of a yuan of economic harmonious state"China's roads".

　　但在城市化过程中，要预防和阻止房地产泡沫的产生与发展，对资产泡沫危险绝不可掉以轻心。由于很难事前判断资产泡沫的积累，一个简单实用的法则是有价值的。每年平均房价上涨幅度不应超过全国或某地区经济增长率、通货膨胀预期和城市化人口增长率三项之和，即“清华规则”。以全国经济增长幅度为7%，通货膨胀预期为2%，城市化率1%计算，全国每年平均房价增长速度不能超过10%。

But in the process of urbanization,To prevent and stop the real estate bubble generation and development,Risk of asset bubbles never treat STH lightly.Because it is difficult to judge the accumulation of asset bubbles in advance,A simple and practical law is valuable.Average house prices have risen by each year should not be more than the national or a regional economic growth/Inflation expectations and urbanization population growth rate of three,namely"Tsinghua rules".In the national economic growth rate of 7%,Inflation expectations for 2%,Urbanization rate 1% computation,Every year the average house prices increase speed can not be more than 10%.

　　城镇化如果是实现了进城农民工的市民化，毫无疑问将有利于扩大内需。但城镇化更大的意义在于供给侧效率的提高，特别是“大都市圈”在规模经济上的明显优势。城市规模的扩大使得规模经济不断产生并推动专业化分工进一步细化，集聚效应进一步提高，于是创造出大量的创业机会和就业机会。

Urbanization is to realize if the urbanization of migrant workers,There is no doubt that will benefit to expand domestic demand.But the urbanization greater significance lies in improving the efficiency of the supply side,especially"Metropolis circle"The scale of the economic advantage.The scale enlargement of city makes the scale economy continuously produce and promote specialization further refinement,Accumulative effect further improve,Then create a lot of business opportunities and employment opportunities.

　　要使城市化的这一效应得到发挥，需要政府在制度上减少创业障碍，在政策上扶持创业行为，形成有利于创业的制度和政策环境，从而真正形成城市经济的活力和创新能力。因此市场化改革，是城市化能够顺利推进的根本保障。

To make the urbanization this effect can be fulfilled,In the system needs the government reduce venture disorder,In the policy support entrepreneurial behavior,Formation can be contributed to the system and policy environment,So as to form a truly urban economic vigor and innovation ability.So the marketization reform,Urbanization is the fundamental guarantee to smoothly development.

　

　促进产业优化 Promote industrial optimization

　　在扶持战略性新兴产业的同时，中国不能放弃制造业的升级换代，不能简单将现有传统产业淘汰到国外，而应结合主体功能区规划和通过政策引导促使其渐次向中西部转移，同时鼓励现有产业改造升级，并大力促进第三产业，特别是现代服务业的充分发展。

In the support strategic emerging industry at the same time,China can't give up upgrading of manufacturing industry,Not simple will existing traditional industries out to foreign countries,But should be combined with main body function region through planning and policy guidance to the gradually shift toward central and western China,At the same time encourage existing industry upgrading,And strongly promote the industry,Especially the full development of modern service industry.

　　要在成为创新大国的过程中，通过技术创新、商业模式创新、产业创新，和以股权投资母基金等方式引导社会资本投入方向，形成合力以加大战略性新兴产业的成长步伐，争取弯道超车，后来居上。

To be in the process of innovation country,Through the technological innovation/Business model innovation/Industry innovation,And the mother equity investment funds way to guide the social capital investment direction,To form the joint effort to increase strategic emerging industry growth pace,Turn to overtake,come.

　　要加快在资源能源、广电、文化、医疗、教育等垄断行业或过度垄断领域的改革、开放步伐，引入民间资本和资本市场力量，加快形成健康产业、老年护理产业、文化产业、创意产业等新的产业链、价值链和新兴产业群，释放出巨大的产业能量和活力。要通过4G建设、高铁主干网建设、城镇化建设和航天军工民用化，带动移动互联网、绿色建筑、高端装备产业和新材料的发展。应推出有利并购重组的政策，以及通过资本场功能的发挥促使产业、行业间资源重新有效配置，改善经济整体质量。

To speed up the energy in the resources/Radio and television/culture/medical/Education and monopoly industries or excessive monopoly sector reforms/And opening-up,Introducing private capital and capital market forces,Speed up the formation of health industry/Elderly care industry/Culture industry/Creative industries and so on the new industrial chain/The value chain and emerging industries,Release huge industrial energy and vitality.Through the construction of 4 g/High iron backbone construction/The urbanization construction and space military MinYongHua,Drive the mobile Internet/Green building/High-end equipment industry and the development of new materials.Should be introduced, acquisition and reorganization of favorable policy,And through the capital field function to the full play of the industry/Between the efficient allocation of resources to the industry,To improve the quality of the whole economy.

　　同时必须看到，政府扶持产业的效果已经在递减。中国产业结构优化升级的动力和压力分别来自收入提高后的需求结构多样化和需求结构升级、人口红利逐渐消失后因劳动力成本上升导致的传统比较优势的丧失、全球化环境下开放带来的国际竞争压力等。因此，新时期推动结构优化和升级的措施，应该更加注重发挥市场机制的作用，让企业真正成为围绕需求结构变动展开创新和产业、行业结构升级的主体。

At the same time must see,The effect of government effort to support the industry has been in decline.China's upgrading of the industrial structure of the power and pressure were from income increase of demand structure diversity and demand structure upgrade/Demographic dividend gradually disappears because of the labor force cost rise led to the loss of the traditional comparative advantage/Under the environment of globalization brought open international competition pressure, etc.so,To promote the new period structure optimization and upgrading of the measures,Should pay more attention to play the function of market mechanism,Let the enterprise become a real around demand structure change on innovative and industry/The main body of the industry structure upgrade.

　　政府的作用应该更为突出重点地转向营造良好的市场环境，包括深化金融体系改革、培育创业和风险投资、提供必要的政策性金融产品，为结构升级提供更加高效的融资服务；加强基础研究和技术研发的政府投入，引导并激励企业加强研发投入和产品与品牌创新，赋予学校更大的办学自主权并引导教育更好地满足结构升级的需要；营造更加公平的竞争环境，减少对不同产业领域的行政管制和垄断，推动产业投资准入的进一步开放和全过程的公平竞争。

The role of government should be more outstanding key to create a good market environment,Including deepening the reform of the financial system/To cultivate pioneering and risk investment/Provide the necessary policy financial products,To provide more efficient structure upgrade the financing service;Strengthening basic research and technology research and development of government investment,Lead and motivate enterprises to strengthen r&d investment and product and brand innovation,Give more autonomy of running school and guiding education better meet the needs of the structure upgrade;Create more fair competition environment,In different industries to reduce the administrative control and monopoly,Promote industrial investment access further opening and the whole process of fair competition.

　　

加快实施结构性减税 Accelerating the implementation of structural tax reduction

　　应以结构性减税作为现阶段宏观调控和财税政策的重点和亮点之一。结构性减税是激发市场主体“两创”活力并以经济杠杆引导结构优化、方式转变的代表性机制之一。税外负担的减轻，需与减税相互结合与协调。税制的总体优化需在远景上按现代社会、现代国家发展目标模式，近景上适应各具体发展阶段的要求与制约，纳入财政、经济、行政和政治体制配套改革，积极有序推进。

Should be regarded as the present structural tax macroeconomic regulation and control and fiscal policy is one of the key and window.Structural tax cuts is to stimulate the market main body"Two and"Energy and economic lever guide structure optimization/The change in the pattern of one of the representative mechanism.The tax burden relief,And to the tax combination and coordination.The overall optimization system needs to be in on the vision in the modern society/The modern national development target model,Close shot to adapt to the specific stage of development requirements and restriction,Into financial/economic/Administrative and political system reform,Actively promote orderly.

　　“营业税改增值税”的改革，在进口、中小微企业、创新活动、养老产业化等环节和领域的减税与税收优惠举措，应成为现阶段结构性减税的重点，并与资源税、房地产税改革等一并纳入财税改革的通盘设计。

"Business tax to value added tax"reform,In the import/Small and medium-sized micro enterprise/Innovation activities/Endowment industrialization process and areas of tax cuts and tax preferential measures,Should be the focus of the present structural tax cuts,And resource/Real estate tax reform and fiscal reform together into the overall design.

　　

大幅减少行政审批 Greatly reduce the administrative examination and approval

　　减少行政审批应成为进一步转变政府职能、推进市场化改革的重要切入点和基本取向。应以实质性减少政府行政干预特别是行政许可的制度改进，营造良好的企业经营环境，降低交易成本，达到鼓励创业、创新，提高效率、推进“两化”的综合效应。

Reduce the administrative examination and approval should be further transform government functions/Promote the reform of marketization is an important point and basic orientation.Should with substantial cut government administrative intervention, especially the administrative licensing system improvement,To create a good business environment,To reduce transaction costs,To encourage entrepreneurship/innovation,Improve efficiency/propulsion"Two chemical"The comprehensive effect of.

　　我国各级政府大大小小的行政审批不仅导致各类寻租腐败行为，而且增加了企业经营的不确定性和交易成本。未来中国产业结构的调整和升级，不可能再主要指望产业政策对几个支柱产业或战略性新兴产业和国有企业的扶持来实现，更多的是需要通过广泛的创业和创新活动来实现，而这类创业和创新活动的主体，必然是遍布各地和各个产业的中小企业。为了促进中小企业的创新和创业，必须大大减少不合理的政府行政审批项目，加强对私人产权的依法保护，花大力气改进企业的营商环境。

The Chinese governments at all levels greatly small administrative examination and approval not only results in all kinds of rent-seeking corruption,And increase the enterprise management and the uncertainty of the transaction cost.The future of China's industrial structure adjustment and upgrading,Can no longer count on industrial policy of several major pillar industry or strategic emerging industry and the support of state-owned enterprises to achieve,More is needed by a wide range of entrepreneurship and innovation activities to achieve,And this kind of entrepreneurship and innovation activities of the subject,Must have been around and each industry of small and medium-sized enterprises.In order to promote the small and medium-sized enterprise innovation and entrepreneurship,Must be greatly reduce unreasonable government administrative examination and approval,To strengthen the protection of private property right in accordance with law,Take great effort to improve enterprise business environment.

　

　着力扩大对亚非拉地区的开放程度 To expand to the Latin American region openness

　　经济全球化、一体化已成为不可逆转的发展趋势，但由于美国次贷危机、欧债危机等因素，2008年以来欧美日等发达国家经济陷入危机状态，其进口需求增速显著放缓，贸易保护主义抬头，且呈中长期化态势。而我国东盟双边贸易额从1991年的79.6亿美元上升至2011年的3629亿美元，年均增长20%以上；中非贸易额从1992年的105亿美元攀升至2011年的1600亿美元，年均增长22%；中国与拉美贸易额自2001年以来年均增长30%，至2011年达到2415亿美元。

Economic globalization/Integration has become the inevitable development trend,But as a result of the us subprime mortgage crisis/The debt crisis factors,Since 2008, Europe and the United States and other developed countries economy into a state of crisis,The import demand growth slowed significantly,Trade protectionism growth,And in the long-term trend.In bilateral trade between asean and from $1991 in 7.96 billion rose to $2011 in 362.9 billion,The average annual growth of more than 20%;China-africa trade from $1992 in 10.5 billion climbed to $2011 in 160 billion,The average annual growth of 22%;China and Latin American trade since 2001 the average annual growth of 30%,To 2011 to 241.5 billion dollars.

　　面对国际经济格局的变化，我国必须坚持和实施更加积极主动、更加能够体现比较优势的新型开放战略。以主动在海外设立投资基金方式投资欧美高技术密集地区的高技术企业，用股权整合国际高技术资源，以国际产业整合的方式支持国内产业升级，推动新兴产业的成长。

In the face of international economic pattern changes,Our country must adhere to and implement more active/More can reflect the comparative advantage of new opening strategy.With active in overseas investment fund to set up investment in Europe and the United States high technology populated areas of high technology enterprise,Integration with equity international high technical resources,In the international industrial integration ways to support the domestic industrial upgrading,Promote the growth of new industries.

　　在努力巩固与欧美国家经贸关系的同时，将更多的关注点和可用资源投入到亚非拉新兴经济体国家，通过拓展外汇储备运用渠道、推动人民币国际化两大动力，围绕“两个市场，两种资源”，运用“基础设施换资源”原理，积极探索将中国的资金优势、基础设施建设能力优势、经济开发区建设经验与亚非拉国家的资源优势、基础设施需求、农业发展需求、工业化进程需求进行有效对接的方式，并以其相关需求带动我国资金、人才、产品和技术“走出去”。

In an effort to consolidate the economic and trade relations with the European and American countries at the same time,More concerns and available resources into Latin America emerging economies,Through the development reserves by the channel/Promote RMB internationalization two big power,around"Two market,Two kinds of resources",use"Infrastructure in resources"principle,Explore the Chinese capital advantage/Infrastructure construction ability advantage/Economic development zone construction experience and the resource advantages of Latin American countries/Infrastructure needs/Agricultural development needs/Industrialization demand for effective docking way,And with its related demand will drive our country capital/talents/Products and technologies"Go out".

　　

适度扩大基于质量 Enlarging the based on the quality

　　和效益的投资规模 And benefit of investment

　　在中国当前所处的发展阶段，不能简单批评“高储蓄、高投资”，也不能照搬套用欧美国家以消费促增长的发展模式，更不能认为消费产生的GDP才是高质量的GDP而投资产生的GDP是低质量的GDP。扩大投资并不必然导致产能过剩、重复建设。实际上，没有投资就没有供给，也就没有消费；投资是消费的前提和基础，也是国家经济硬实力的依托和就业的源泉。对中国和广大发展中国家而言，在超常规的“追赶”阶段，投资对经济发展的重要性尤为重要。

In China the stage of development,Not simple criticism"High savings/High investment",Cannot copy form the European and American countries to promote the development of consumption growth mode,Can't think consumption produce GDP is high quality GDP and investment of GDP is the low quality of the GDP.Expand investment does not necessarily lead to overcapacity/Repetitive construction.In fact,No investment is no supply,There is no consumption;Investment is the premise and foundation of consumption,It is also the national economy based on hard power and the source of employment.To China and the developing countries,In the special"after"stage,The importance of investment to economic development is particularly important.

　　从改革开放三十年的实际进程和成效看，由高储蓄支撑的高投资，不仅不是中国经济的主要问题，相反是中国得以实现快速发展的重要经验。我国投资与消费的比例和结构，应当随着中国经济发展水平的提升、居民收入水平的增加而逐步合理演进，不宜人为强力调整，更不宜直接套用早已实现工业化、信息化并进入后消费时代的美国的投资消费结构指标，以此作为中国目前所处发展阶段的参照指标，否则容易导致错误的宏观政策导向，人为造成错失当前对中国较为有利的发展机遇。

From the reform and opening up 30 years of actual process and results to see,Made from high savings support high investment,China's economy is not the main problem,But on the contrary, it can realize China's rapid development of the important experience.China and the proportion of the investment and consumption structure,Should be with China's economic development level of ascension/The income level of resident increases gradually reasonable evolution,People should not be strong adjustment,The more unfavorable direct form already realize industrialization/Information and enter the consumption age of American investment consumption structure index,In China as in the development stage of reference index,Otherwise, easy to cause the wrong macro policy guidance,Man-made to miss the current China's more favorable development opportunities.

　　中国投资领域的核心问题不是总量和增速，而是结构、质量和效益。从结构看，未来宜重点围绕新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化、服务业现代化、国防现代化及住房、医疗、教育等领域，优化投资结构，提升投资强度；从提升质量效益看，要大力深化改革投融资体制改革和金融改革，以创新投融资模式，引入多元投资主体，以公私合作伙伴（PPP）和政策融资机制，扩大融资渠道，降低融资成本。

China's investment in the core problem is not the total amount and growth,But structure/Quality and efficiency.From the structure to see,The future should focus on new industrialization/information/urbanization/Agricultural modernization/Modern service industry/National defense modernization and housing/medical/Education, etc,Optimize investment structure,Improve investment intensity;Improve the quality and efficiency from the watch,Want to deepen the reform of investment and financing system reform and financial reform,Innovation investment and financing mode,Introducing multiple investment main body,With public and private partners(PPP)And policy financing mechanism,Expand the financing channels,Reduce financing cost.

　　此外，对电力、公路、铁路、地铁、公交等具有正外部性且实行政府定价的公共性领域和医院、学校等准公共性或公益性领域，应树立“大效益”的理念，运用综合绩效评估方式，决不应简单以财务效益、是否亏损作为衡量其投资必要性、可行性的依据。

In addition,On power/highway/railway/subway/Bus has positive externalities and the price of the government public areas and hospital/School quasi public or public spheres,Should establish"Big benefit"concept,Using the comprehensive performance evaluation mode,Never should be simple to financial benefit/If loss as a measure of its investment necessity/Feasibility basis.

　　

国有资本与民间资本应共同进步 The state-owned capital and private capital should make progress together

　　我们不主张“贴标签”式地讨论“国进民退”、“国退民进”问题，且“进”、“退”也不是仅体现在“领域”的进出、“市场份额”的高低方面。我们主张，要按照马克思“生产力决定生产关系”的原理作为观察问题的着眼点，并按照小平同志“三个有利于”的核心思想作为衡量标准，在经济发展的一定阶段，既不是“越公、越国有越好”，也不是“越私、越民营越好”。此外，从历史上看，中国明清时期、民国时期，没有什么像样的国有企业，全是民营企业、民间资本，也没有实现“强国富民”、社会公平公正的目标。

We do not advocate"labeling"Type discussion"Countries people back into"/"Countries China back"problems,and"into"/"back"Is not only reflected in"field"Of pass in and out of/"Market share"In the discretion of the.We advocate,According to Marx"Productivity decided to relations of production"The principle of the observation problem as a starting point,And according to comrade deng xiaoping raised"Three favorables"Core ideas as a standard,In the economic development of a certain stage,neither"More male/The better the state-owned",Is not"More private/The private, the better".In addition,From a historical point of view,China's Ming and qing dynasties/During the period of the republic of,No decent state-owned enterprise,Is full of private enterprise/Folk capital,Also did not realize"Clinging to power"/The goal of social equality.

　　我们认为，国有企业、国有经济与民营企业、民间资本各有其特点和优势，在当前中国进入工业化中后期、进入资本社会化时代且面临全球化竞争格局的条件下，观察国有企业的存在必要性、作用方式和空间，探索其有效管控模式，必须引入新的理念、转取新的视角，运用新的思维。

We think,State-owned enterprise/State-owned economy and private enterprises/The folk capital each has its characteristics and advantages,In the current China's entry into the middle of industrialization/Enter the capital socialization age and facing globalization competition conditions,To observe the state-owned enterprise existence necessity/Mode of action and space,Explore the effective control mode,Must be the introduction of new ideas/Turn take new perspective,Using the new thinking.

　　国有经济、国有企业具有依托或隐含国家信用、能够整合各方资源，具有规模经济、资本实力强、管理相对规范、社会责任感较强等优势，是政府调控经济、维护国家经济安全，保障社会公平公正的重要调控、辐射力量和政策工具；特别是在某些从国家中长期战略看很需要但暂时面临市场缺损或发育不足的领域，其作用更显重要。但其也存在由政企关系界定不清或内部管理人员道德风险所诱发的盈利动机不强、不注重管控成本反而易持续抬高管理成本和福利、工资，运营效率偏低、服务质量较低等问题。

State-owned economy/The state-owned enterprise is relying on the national credit or implied/To integrate various resources,Has economies of scale/Capital strength/Management relative standard/Social sense of responsibility strong advantages,Is the government regulation and control the economy/To safeguard national economic security,Safeguard social fairness and justice of the important regulation/Radiation power and policy tool;In some countries, especially from the long-term strategic look very need but temporarily facing market defect or insufficient development of the field,Its function is more important.But there are also the relationship between government and enterprises by definition is not clear or internal management personnel moral hazard induced by profit motive is not strong/Don't pay attention to control cost but easy to continue up the management cost and benefits/wage,Operation efficiency is low/Service quality is low.

　　民营企业具有市场嗅觉敏锐、机制灵活、客户观念强等优点，但其与生俱来的最大化逐利本性容易导致主要关注企业自身利益或局部利益、浪费资源、短期行为、压低劳工安全条件和薪酬、破坏环境、社会责任感不强等问题。

The private enterprise is keen market sense of smell/Mechanism is agile/Strong customer idea etc,But its inherent maximization by the nature which is easy to cause the main focus on enterprise's own interests and local interests/Waste resources/Short-term behavior/Low labor safety condition and salary/Environmental damage/Social responsibility is not strong and so on questions.

　　我们主张，要通过扩大市场准入、加强市场监管、完善法律法规，发挥其各自长处，抑制其各自不足，构建国企国资、民企民资平等竞争，互为补充、双向良性互动的市场格局。国企国资在一般性竞争领域可逐步完全退出，在涉及国家经济安全、经济命脉的特定领域，其以股权衡量的控制力大致可初步掌握在30%~60%区间。

We advocate,To expand the market access/To strengthen market supervision/Perfect laws and regulations,Play to their strengths,Inhibition of their respective shortage,Construct state-owned enterprises inspected/What was the corporation equal competition,complement/Two-way benign interaction of the market structure.State-owned enterprises in mountainous areas of general competition can be completely out of step by step,In the case of national economic security/The economic lifeline of the particular field,The equity of the control measure can be roughly preliminary master in 30% ~ 60% interval.

　　股份制是公有制的重要实现形式，也是融合“国有企业”、“民营企业”分野而发展“混合经济”式现代企业的制度形式。从历史大趋势上观察，原来“国”与“民”在一般概念上的截然不同，将越来越多地转化为依阶段、领域等的不同而生成的股份制企业股权结构的变动等问题，即归为国有与非国有股权的一体化生存与“共赢”问题。

Stock is an important realization form of public ownership,Fusion is"State-owned enterprise"/"Private enterprises"Eset and development"Mixed economy"Type the modern enterprise system form.From the historical trends observed,The original"countries"and"people"In the general concept of entirely different,Will increasingly into in accordance with the stage/Different field generated joint-stock enterprise ownership structure changes and problems,That is categorized as state-owned and non-state-owned equity integration survival and"win-win"problems.

　　

实现政府和市场 “双到位” To realize the government and the market "Double in place"

　　我们既不主张经济完全由政府主导，也不同意单一维度的所谓“小政府，大社会”或“政府退出经济领域，完全由市场自身配置资源”的观点。经济完全由政府主导，即实行计划经济，企业全部国有，则形不成市场，价格、资源必然扭曲，供给必然不足，效率必然低下，苏联、东欧国家及中国改革开放前已有深刻的历史教训。

We are not in favor of economic completely by the government leading,Also don't agree with a single dimension of so-called"Small government,Great society"or"The government to withdraw from the economy,Complete the market's allocation of resources"Point of view.Economic completely by the government leading,That is a planned economy,All state-owned enterprise,Is XingBuCheng market,price/Resources inevitable distortion,Insufficient supply necessary,Low efficiency will,Soviet union/Eastern European countries and China before reform and opening up has profound historical lessons.

　　经济完全由市场自发运行，企业全部是非国有企业，也会出现西方经济学亦承认客观存在的“市场失灵”，其对国民经济造成的伤害也会十分巨大。2008年以来出现的由美国次贷、欧债引发的最新一轮全球经济金融危机也充分证明，并非政府不参与经济运行，经济就可以很健康地发展。

Economic completely by market spontaneous operation,All enterprises and state-owned enterprises,Also can appear the western economics also admitted that the objective existence"Market failure",The national economy the damage also will be very great.Since 2008 by the American subprime appear/The debt caused by the latest round of global economic and financial crisis is proved,Is not the government does not participate in the economic operation,Economic can very healthy development.

　　我们主张，政府和市场应发挥其各自应有作用，并实现良性互动互补与合作。在中国特色的市场经济条件下，政府既是提供公共服务、监管市场运行的主体，也是部分特定领域的供给（生产）主体。

We advocate,The government and the market should play their due role,And realize the benign interaction complementary and cooperation.In the Chinese characteristic market economy condition,The government is to provide public services/The main body of market supervision,Is also part of the supply of particular field(production)subject.

　　中国政府未来一方面要运用财政政策、货币政策、收入政策等宏观政策，并通过制定国家中长期发展战略、区域和行业发展规划引导市场这只“看不见的手”调控经济运行。另一方面，还应颁布相关法律法规、设立监管机构来监督市场运行，并在涉及国计民生的关键领域通过构建一定数量的强大的国有控股企业这只“看得见的手”，来保障国家经济安全和弥补“市场失灵”，贯彻现代化赶超战略。

The Chinese government on the one hand to use fiscal policy in the future/Monetary policy/Income policy macro policy,And by formulating national medium and long-term development strategy/Regional and industry development planning guide market only"The invisible hand"Adjust and control the economy operation.On the other hand,Should also issued relevant laws and regulations/Set up regulatory body to supervise the market operation,And in the people's livelihood in key areas by constructing a certain number of powerful state-owned holding enterprise this only"Visible hand",To safeguard national economic security and make up"Market failure",Implement modern surpassing strategy.

　　我们的上述主张绝不意味着看轻国有经济、国有企业深化改革的艰巨任务，也并不意味着主张政府“既当裁判员，又当运动员”，而是主张将政府三个职能分离由三个不同的主体来承担，以确保政府调控、引导经济发展职能与市场配置资源职能“双到位”，具体模式为：

Our the above claim never means underestimate state-owned economy/Deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises and an arduous task,Also it doesn't mean that the government"Is when the referee,And when athletes",But will the government that three functional separation by three different subject to bear,In order to ensure that government regulation/Guide economic development function and the function of market in resource allocation"Double in place",Concrete model of:

　　一是由政府设立的“行政部门”承担制定发展规划、审核市场准入等行政职能；二是要由政府组建 “监管机构”来履行监管市场职能；三是对于涉及国家经济安全、国民经济命脉的重点领域或存在“市场失灵”的领域，还应由政府出资在同一领域成立若干“企业实体”参与有外资、民资等主体加入的市场竞争。公私合作伙伴关系模式下的发展取向与机制创新，应成为政府、市场主体与非政府“第三部门”（民间志愿者组织）等公益机构，更充分地合作而寻求“共赢”的主题。

One is set up by the government"Administrative department"Bear worked out the development plan/Audit market access and administrative functions;The second is to set up by the government "regulators"To perform supervision market function;The third is involved in national economic security/The lifeline of the national economy of the key areas or existence"Market failure"field,Should also is funded by the government in the same field established several"Enterprise entity"Involved in a foreign/What was the main body, such as in the market competition.Public and private partnership mode development orientation and mechanism innovation,Should become the government/The market main body and non-governmental"The third department"(Folk volunteer organization)Public institutions such as,More fully cooperation and seek"win-win"theme.

　　经过30年的不断改革开放，我国的冶金、有色、航空、金融、电信等领域已基本上实现了政府行政、监督、股东三项职能的分离，初步形成了政府与市场互动格局，而电力、铁道、公路、卫生、教育等领域仍维持了或大体未打破原有格局，政府三项职能集中于一个机构，或仍实际维持了过度垄断与过度管制，需要通过大力深化改革，实现三者的履职主体有效分离。

After 30 years of reform and opening up constantly,China's metallurgical/non-ferrous/aviation/financial/Telecommunications and other fields has basically realized the government administration/supervision/Shareholders of the three functions of separation,The initial formation of the government and the market interaction pattern,While power/railway/highway/health/Education etc remains or general did not break the original pattern,The government focused on three functions of an organization,Or is the actual maintain excessive monopoly and excessive control,Need by devoting major efforts to deepen the reform,To realize the three main resumption effective separation.

　　

构建和发展中国新供给经济学 Construction and development of China's new supply economics

　　总之，我们认为，应坚持小平同志“发展是硬道理”的核心思想，以改革统领全局，适应中国新一轮经济发展的总体要求，针对当前和今后一个时期面临的多方面问题和矛盾，着重从供给方入手，构建促进总供需平衡和结构优化、增长方式转变的“新供给经济学”，并作为指导中国未来可持续发展的核心经济理论之一。

In a word,We think,Comrade deng xiaoping raised should be insisted on"Development is the absolute principle"Core thought of,To command the overall situation reform,To adapt to the development of China's new economy overall requirements,In view of the current and future a period of facing many problems and contradictions,Emphatically from of supply,Constructing promote total supply and demand balance and structure optimization/The transformation of growth pattern"The new supply economics",And as the guiding China's future sustainable development of one of the core economic theory.

　　在上述基本考虑中，“双创”是发展的灵魂和先行者；“双化”是发展的动力与升级过程的催化剂；“双减”则代表着侧重于提升供给效率、优化供给结构以更好适应和引导需求结构变化的制度基础；“双扩”是力求扩大供给方在国际、国内的市场空间；“双进”是明确供给主体在股份制现代企业制度安排演进中的合理资本金构成；“双到位”是要在政府与市场这一核心问题上明确长期困扰相关各方的合理定位。试以“双创双化双减、双扩双进双到位”来粗线条地、突出重点地表达我们在以改革为核心的新供给经济学思路上所强调的基本政策主张。

In the above basic consideration,"Double and"Is the soul of the development of the pioneer and;"Double change"Is the motive power of development and upgrade process of catalyst;"ShuangJian"It represents the focus on improve the efficiency of supply/Optimize supply structure to better adapt to and guide the demand structure change system foundation;"Double expansion"Is realized to expand in international/The domestic market space;"Double into"Is clear on the stock supply modern enterprise system arrangement of the evolution of reasonable capital composition;"Double in place"In the government and the market is the core problem in the long run, clear the reasonable positioning related parties.Try to"Double and ShuangJian double change/Double expansion double into double in place"To rough and ready to/Highlight the key to express our in reform is the core of the new supply economics thought emphasize the basic policies.

　　十八大报告已经发出明确的号召，“我们一定要坚定信心，打赢全面深化经济体制改革和加快转变经济发展方式这场硬仗，把中国经济发展活力和竞争力提高到新的水平。”“空谈误国，实干兴邦”，当前，最重要的就是落实2012年中央经济工作会议要求，尽快提出一个明确的改革总体方案，并明确路线图和时间表。

The eighteenth big report has been a clear call,"We must firm faith,Win comprehensively deepen the reform of economic system and speed up the transformation of the mode of economic development this tough battle,China's economic development vitality and competitiveness raised to a new level.""Talk WuGuo,Work development",The current,The most important thing is to carry out in 2012, the central economic work conference requirement,As soon as possible as a clear overall scheme of reform,And clear roadmap and schedule.

　　这件事情意义极为重大，涉及到社会主义市场经济在2022年后究竟走向什么样的成熟模式，关系中华民族能否最终实现伟大复兴目标的光荣而艰巨的任务，需要中国整个经济学界乃至全社会的积极参与，集中各方面的智慧，通过深入的讨论和思想碰撞，才能凝聚共识，抓住改革的机遇。

It is very important,Involved in the socialist market economy in the 2022 years later what to what kind of mature model,Relationship between the Chinese nation great rejuvenation can finally realize target glorious and arduous task,China economic circle and the need of the whole society to participate in actively,Focus on all aspects of wisdom,Through the in-depth discussion and thought collision,To build consensus,Seize the opportunity of reform.

　　作为参与这个碰撞和讨论的形式之一，我们诚挚地希望并邀请更多的经济学工作者加入到构建和发展中国新供给经济学的研究和相关政策探讨行列，共同交出一份无愧于当代经济学工作者历史使命的答卷。

As part of this collision and discuss one of the forms,We sincerely hope and invite more economics workers to join to the construction and development of China's new supply the study of economics and related policy discussed procession,Common over a worthy contemporary economics workers historical mission papers.

　　（本文摘编自报告《中国需要构建和发展以改革为核心的新供给经济学》，本文仅代表个人观点，与作者所在单位无关。）

(This paper come from the report[China needs to build and develop to reform is the core of the new supply economics],This article represent only personal point of view,The author has nothing to do with the unit.)