3月5日，温家宝总理在第十二届全国人大一次会议上做政府工作报告，回顾了2012年的主要工作，确定了2013年的工作任务。其中，2013年广义货币（M2）预期增长目标拟定为13%左右。笔者发现，2012年广义货币预期增长目标为14%；2011年广义货币预期增长目标为16%。我国年度广义货币预期增长目标的回落，一定程度上反映出中央决策层对国内货币供应量快速增长的担忧，预计我国未来货币供应量增长将回归稳健。

On March 5,,Premier wen jiabao in the twelfth session of the National People's Congress a work report at the meeting,A retrospect of the 2012 major work,Determine the work tasks in 2013.Among them,2013 m2(The M2)Expected growth to about 13%.The author found that,The 2012 m2 expected growth target of 14%;The 2011 m2 expected growth target of 16%.China's annual broad money the expected growth target of back,Partly reflects the central policy makers on the concerns of the rapid growth of the domestic money supply,China's future growth in the money supply is expected to return to the steady.

　　2012年，我国广义货币余额为97.42万亿元，跨过100万亿元的整数关指日可待。虽说如此规模庞大的货币存量，在全世界也绝无仅有，但应该看到，当前我国货币存量规模巨大，也有其合理性。在我国货币化进程中，货币供应量连续多年保持较快增长，与实体经济发展的资金约束是分不开的。特别是，我国加入世界贸易组织后，出口竞争力明显提升，出口规模迅速增长，由此带来的外汇顺差数量庞大。为保持商品出口竞争力，决策层维持人民币汇率的大体稳定，从而被迫形成巨额的外汇占款，加大了基础货币的投放。不仅如此，基于套利的热钱资金大肆进入国内，也形成大量货币投放压力。还有，我国经济主要依靠投资驱动，受当前投融资体制改革相对滞后影响，主要还是依靠银行贷款资金启动项目投资建设，从而会产生大量派生存款。

In 2012,,China's broad money balance is RMB 97.42 trillion,Over 100 trillion yuan integer just around the corner.Although such huge money stock,Also unique in the whole world,But you should see,The current China's money stock size,Also has its rationality.In the process of our monetization,Consecutive years maintained a fast growth in the money supply,And the entity economy the development of the capital constraints are inseparable.Especially in the,After China's accession to the wto,Export competitiveness improved significantly,Export scale is growing fast,As a result of the enormous foreign exchange surpluses.To maintain the competitiveness of export commodities,Policy makers generally maintain the RMB exchange rate stable,Thus forced to form a huge foreign exchange,Increase the monetary base.Not only that,Based on the arbitrage of hot money capital into the country,Also formed a lot of money pressure.There are,Rely mainly on investment driven economy in our country,Affected by the current investment and financing system reform relative lag,Mainly rely on bank loans start construction project investment,Which will produce a large number of derived deposits.

　　规模庞大的货币存量始终是高悬在宏观经济之上的达摩克利斯之剑。著名经济学家、诺贝尔经济奖获得者弗里德曼曾经说过，通货膨胀终归是一种货币现象。货币本是润滑实体经济，规模过大的货币存量，犹如大水蔓延，吹大资产泡沫，增大潜在通货膨胀压力。

Huge money stock is always hung in the sword of Damocles over the macroeconomic.Famous economist/Nobel prize-winning economist Milton friedman once said,Inflation is a monetary phenomenon.Currency is the lubrication of the real economy,Too big money stock,Is like the water spread,Inflating asset bubbles,Increasing the potential inflationary pressures.

　　过去几年，我国未发生明显的通货膨胀，客观上应归功于中央银行颇为成功的流动性调控。中国人民银行通过将法定存款准备金率提高至20%以上，大量发行中央银行票据，锁定了实体经济的大量流动性。但与此同时，几年来，我们也切实感受到物价上涨的压力。虽然居民消费价格指数增长并不明显，但与普通老百姓密切相关的食品价格、住房交易价格和住房租赁价格均出现了明显增长。这恐怕与我国相对过高的货币存量是分不开的。

Over the past few years,In China, there was no obvious inflation,Objectively successful due to the central bank liquidity regulation.The people's bank of China by the legal deposit reserve rate raised to above 20%,Issuance of central bank bills,Lock the liquidity of real economy.But at the same time,Over the past few years,We also felt the pressure of rising prices.Although the consumer price index of growth was not obvious,But food prices is closely related to ordinary people/Housing market price and the housing rental prices are there is an obvious growth.I'm afraid that with relatively high money stock in our country is inseparable.

　　货币不是生产资料。在信用货币体系下，虽然投放货币供应量会出现货币幻觉，改变宏观经济不同部门的货币存量，从而刺激投资或消费，推动宏观经济增长，但这种效应很短暂，一旦货币幻觉消失，则货币政策推动宏观经济增长的作用就会随之消失，过多货币追逐商品的结果将会是可怕的通货膨胀。这也是为什么很多国家将稳定物价作为货币政策首要目标的重要原因。当然，我国也不应例外。

The currency is not production.Under the credit monetary system,Although put in the money supply will be money illusion,Change the macroeconomic money stock of different department,To stimulate investment and consumption,To promote macroeconomic growth,But the effect is very short,Once the money illusion disappeared,The monetary policy to promote the growth of macro economy effect will disappear,Too much money chasing goods will be the result of the terrible inflation.This is why many countries will be important reason for price stability as the primary goal of monetary policy.Of course,,Our country also should not be an exception.

　　根据经典货币理论的费雪方程式，在货币流通速度保持一定的假设下，货币供应量增速、GDP增速和物价涨幅之间存在一定比例关系。根据政府工作报告，我国2013年GDP增长预期目标为7.5%，CPI预期为3.5%，同时还考虑到需要宏观经济增长不断稀释存量货币的因素，还要提高资金约束作用，将今年广义货币的预期增长目标设定为13%左右是非常合理。

Fisher equation according to the classical monetary theory,In the currency circulation speed under certain assumptions,Money supply growth/There is a certain proportion relation between GDP growth and inflation.According to the government work report,China's GDP growth target of 7.5% in 2013,The CPI is expected to 3.5%,Also consider the need to macroeconomic factors that increase the stock of money is being continuously diluted,Increasing the constraint effect of funds,Will this year broad money growth target set are expected to be around 13% is very reasonable.