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多家机构学者预计8月进口增3.6%--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-09-07

  9月6日,记者对52家机构和经济学家的调查结果显示,8月份中国进口同比增速均值为3.6%,较上月真实值4.7%回落1.1个百分点;贸易顺差的均值为196.1亿美元,较上月251.5亿美元的规模有所萎缩。

On September 6,,Reporter to 52 agencies and economists survey,August imports of Chinese year-on-year growth was an average of 3.6%,A drop of 1.1% 4.7% last month the real value;The mean of the trade surplus for $19.61 billion,The scale of 25.15 billion dollars a month earlier to atrophy.

  调查显示,8月份进口同比增速最高10.3%,最低值为-1.3%,中值为3.85%;贸易顺差最大值为392亿美元,最小值为104亿美元,中值为196.75亿美元。

Investigation shows that,August import top 10.3% year-on-year growth,Minimum value for - 1.3%,The value is 3.85%;The trade surplus maximum for 39.2 billion dollars,The minimum for 10.4 billion dollars,Median for 19.675 billion dollars.

  交通银行(601328,股吧)首席经济学家连平在接受记者邮件采访时分析指出,一方面8月份国内经济形势未能明显回暖,企业生产活动意愿不强,国内消费也偏弱,进口需求仍然较低;另一方面日本、德国等中国主要进口国的出口状况不佳,也侧面反映了8月份国内进口弱势。

Bank of communications(601328,guba)Chief economist even flat when accepting a reporter to interview, the paper points out that the mail,In August, on the one hand, the domestic economic situation not significantly milder,Enterprise production activities will not strong,Domestic consumption also weak,Import demand remains low;On the other hand, Japan/Germany and China's major importers in the export situation is not good,Also reflection in August the domestic import vulnerable.

  国金证券(600109,股吧)宏观经济小组负责人李治平则告诉记者,虽然在技术层面上,核销改革能对进口规模有提升作用,但可能不敌去年高基数的负作用。

Countries gold securities(600109,guba)The macro economic team leader LiZhiPing, told reporters,Although in the technical level,Cancel after verification reform to import scale promotion effect,But may not last year high base of negative effect.

  即使是认为8月进口同比增速会出现反弹的中信证券(600030,股吧)首席经济学家诸建芳,也坦言与去年同期相比,今年8月大宗商品价格处于低位将给进口增速带来不利影响。

Even think August import year-on-year growth will appear rebound citic securities(600030,guba)Chief economist ZhuJianFang,Also said frankly that compared with the same period last year,August commodity prices low to imports will bring adverse effect.

  不过,在谈到未来进口同比增速的走势时,连平显然相对乐观,他表示,未来经济增速将缓慢企稳略升,随着前期审批通过项目的逐步开工与进口政策的支持,对包括先进技术设备等商品的进口需求可能会逐步增加。而未来国际大宗商品价格企稳,也将使得进口规模缓步扩大。

but,When talking about the future trend of the imported year-on-year growth,Even the flat obviously relatively optimistic,He said,Future economic growth will slow stabilises slightly up,Along with the examination and approval through the project beginning gradually and import policy support,To include advanced technology equipment and other commodities import demand may increase gradually.But the future international commodity price stabilises,Will also makes imported slowly expanding scale.

  参与本次调查的机构包括工商银行(601398,股吧)、中国银行(601988,股吧)、交通银行、兴业银行(601166,股吧)、高盛高华、中金公司、申银万国、中信证券、国泰君安、瑞银证券、招商证券(600999,股吧)、国金证券、华泰联合、光大证券(601788,股吧)、国金证券、中原证券等。

Participate in the investigation of the commercial bank of institutions including(601398,guba)/The bank of China(601988,guba)/Bank of communications/Societe generale(601166,guba)/Goldman sachs gao hua/cicc/ShenYin all the nations/Citic securities/Guotai junan/Ubs securities/China merchants securities(600999,guba)/Countries gold securities/Huatai joint/Everbright securities(601788,guba)/Countries gold securities/Zhongyuan securities.



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