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中日贸易受影响 安倍访问缅甸打经济牌--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2013-05-27

  凤凰卫视5月26日《新闻今日谈》,以下为文字实录:

On May 26, phoenix satellite TV[The news today about],The text records are as follows:

  刘珊玲:我们知道24号日本首相安倍晋三开始对缅甸的访问,这也是36年以来首次有日本首相访问缅甸,您怎么看安倍此行的这个方面之旅呢?

LiuShanLing:We know 24, shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, began to visit to Burma,This is for the first time in 36 years, the Japanese prime minister visited Burma,What do you think of Mr Abe's trip this trip?

  闾丘露薇:我自己总结安倍这一次可以说是打了经济牌,另外也打了感情牌。为什么说它打了经济牌?你可以看到他已经是拿去了400亿日元,也就是差不多4亿美元的这样一个新的援助项目。另外,他减免了2000亿日元,也就是20亿美元这样一些旧的债务。在经济的投入上面来说,可以说日本政府这次是不遗余力的。这一点也是为了维持两国这样一个更大的经贸关系,但其实这一点来说,对于日本因为缅甸这个市场确实也非常的重要,这是因为在过去的这段时间里面,东南亚人工的成本是在不断的上升,根据统计可以看到,缅甸的工人的工资可以说是越南的1/2,就一半,是泰国的1/6。另外一点对于日本的这些企业来说,他要面对一个非常现实的问题,那就是和中国因为钓鱼岛的问题的话,未来这个中日贸易肯定是会受到影响,再加上中国的这些成本等等都在不断提高,他需要寻找一个新的这样一个市场。

LvQiuLouWei:My own conclusion Abe this time can be said to be playing the economy card,Also hit sentiment.Why do you say it played card economy?You can see he has been to 40 billion yen,That is almost 400 million dollars in such a new aid.In addition,He breaks the 200 billion yen,Is the $2 billion that some old debts.In the economic input for above,It can be said that the Japanese government is sparing no effort.Which is also in order to maintain such a greater economic and trade relations between the two countries,But in fact this point,In Japan because the myanmar market actually is also very important,This is because in the past this period of time,Southeast Asia's human cost is rising constantly,According to statistics, you can see,Burma's half of the workers' wages is Vietnam,Just half,It's 1/6 of Thailand.Another point for those companies in Japan,He is going to face a very real problem,That is because the diaoyu islands in China and questions,The sino-japanese trade is certainly be affected in the future,Plus China these costs and so on have been improved,He needs to find a new one.

  所以缅甸对他来说是非常的有吸引力的,透过这些减免,或者说债务上面的这样一个支援的话,可以说是加强两国官方的这样一个层面,那这些企业一系列的投资,包括这次安倍还要去看他的深水港等等,这些对于日本的企业来说,他都是一个非常有吸引力的这样一个市场。

So the is very attractive for him,Through these breaks,Such a support of the above or debt,Can say is to strengthen the official a level between the two countries,The series of investment for the industry,Including the Abe also went to see his deep water port, and so on,These for Japanese companies,He is a very attractive a market like this.

  这是经济牌,另外一点是感情牌,因为毕竟大家要看到,缅甸其实和日本的这样一个关系是蛮深远的。因为在过去缅甸独立的话,日本政府当时他们从日本确实是获得了不少的支持,像昂山素季的父亲昂山将军当时这一批军官,他们所接受的这些军事训练都是在日本的这些军校里面,有这样的一段历史,在过去的时候,即便是在受到外界的一个制裁的时候,日本还是或多或少的,一直是保持着和缅甸军政府的这样一个联系。

This is the brand,Another thing is affection,Because, after all, everyone to see,Myanmar and Japan such a relationship is actually quite profound.Because in the past, myanmar's independence,The Japanese government at that time, they are really gained a lot of support from Japan,As general aung SAN, aung SAN suu kyi's father was a group of military officers,They accepted the military training is the point in Japan,Have such a history,In the past time,Even when a sanctions by the outside world,Japan is more or less,Has been maintained and the Burmese junta such a contact.

  但是他们的这种联系不单单是和官方的,他们在下面的话,也是和像昂山素季这样的一些反对派,其实也是保持着很好的这样一个沟通渠道,如果我们记得的话,昂山素季之所以在有几次,她的软禁会被军政府最后释放出来,日本政府在外交层面也是发挥了很大的作用。所以可以看到,这一次安倍在访问缅甸的同时,在同一天,和政府进行了会面之后,马上是和昂山素季是进行了这样一个会面。

But this association is not just and official,They in the following,Also and some like aung SAN suu kyi, the opposition,Is also maintained a good such a communication channel,If we remember,Aung SAN suu kyi is in several times,Will be the junta finally released her under house arrest,The Japanese government is also played a great role in diplomatic.So you can see,This time Mr Abe in the visit to myanmar at the same time,On the same day,And the government carried out after meeting,Is immediately and aung SAN suu kyi is such a meeting.

  刘珊玲:安倍此行是打经济牌还有感情牌。西方媒体就认为,其实安倍此行主要是加强和缅甸在经济还有政治方面的联系,以此来削弱中国在缅甸的影响力,来制衡中国,你怎么看,那么中国对此又要如何来因应呢?

LiuShanLing:Mr Abe's trip is a economic and emotional brand.The western media is considered,In fact Mr Abe's trip is to strengthen and Burma in the economic and political ties,In order to weaken China's influence in Burma,A counterweight to China,What do you think,So China is how to deal with?

  闾丘露薇:其实缅甸这个国家的话,在过去其实不单单是日本的访问,让大家会觉得它是不是要在东南亚,尤其在缅甸宣示是日本我在这边,这是一点。另外在过去这些天可以看到吴登盛也在访问美国,那美国等这些欧盟等等这些国家,在缅甸的影响力,包括对于这样一个新开放的一个国家,他们希望去施加的这样一个影响力,所有的动作都是非常非常多的,那这里面当然就会想到中国,因为在过去的话中国和缅甸其实也是大家相互之间是一个合作伙伴,但是在投资等等领域,在过去这段时间,可以看到是发生了一些不太愉快的事情,可能是因为在投资方面,和当地的少数民族的一些关系或者一些项目等等,和环保团体的处理等等,这里面就让中国和缅甸之间,不管是经济还是政治上的这样一个交往就显得要复杂起来,就是你需要用更加成熟一点的外交手段去跟他们打交道。

LvQiuLouWei:Actually the words in this country,In the past is not just Japan's visit,Let everyone would think it should be in southeast Asia,Especially Japanese in Burma to me on this side,This is a little.These days in the past, you can see other thein sein is on a visit to the United States,That the European Union and so on these countries such as America,Influence in Burma,Including for such a new open a country,They want to exert such an influence,All the movements are very, very much,That there is, of course, will think of China,Because in the past, China and myanmar is everybody is a partnership between each other,But in the field of investment and so on,In the past this period of time,You can see is something don't happy things,Probably because when it comes to investing,And some of the local ethnic relations or some projects and so on,Processing and environmental groups, and so on,There let between China and myanmar,Whether in economic or political such a relationship is more complicated,Is that you need to use more mature a little diplomatic means to deal with them.

  另外一点,怎么和他的反对派来进行沟通,我们可以看到,几乎去缅甸访问的这些外国政要的话,都不会放弃和昂山素季会面的这样一个机会的,因为大家都要看未来,谁也不知道在2015年这样一个选举的时候,缅甸的政局会有怎么样的变化,就像大家之前没有想到缅甸军政府会有这样的,吴登盛会有这么大的一个动作,然后会带来这样一个变化。

Another point,How to communicate with his opposition to,We can see,Almost these foreign dignitaries visit to Burma,Don't give up and aung SAN suu kyi meeting such a chance,Because everybody want to see the future,Who also don't know when such an election in 2015,Burma's political situation will have what change,Like before you did not think there will be such Burma's military government,Thein event has such a big action,And then will lead to such a change.

  对于中国政府来说,要长久的和缅甸发展这样一个可持续的关系的话,那你和反对派之间的这样一个交往,其实也是一个非常重要的,是在为未来打基础,那很高兴的看到,其实之前几天是有新闻说,中国的官方其实现在也在接触像昂山素季这样的反对派,反对政党,这样的话,它是一个要全盘来考虑,并不是说我只能是和在台上的这些,在这样一个透过选举,透过这样的方式来进行政权更替的国家的话,如果你只是只和其中的某一方来进行交往,一旦他的这样一个政局发生转变的时候,那你再要去跟他建立一个比较深厚一点点的关系的话,就会显得比较的被动。

For the Chinese government,Want to for a long time relationship with myanmar so a sustainable development,That such a relationship between you and the opposition,Is also a very important,Is the groundwork for the future,It is happy to see that,In fact there is a news said a few days before,China's official actually now also in contact like aung SAN suu kyi, the opposition,Opposition parties,Such words,It is a full consideration,Is not to say that I can be and the on the stage,In such a through elections,Through this way to regime change in the country,If you just and only one party to communicate,Once he's such a political situation changed,To him that you want to do a build a more profound relationship a little,Would appear to be passive.

  所以这一点的话,我想在过去的这些日子,看到日本、欧洲,包括美国等等在缅甸这么多的动作之后,我想中国政府也是非常敏锐的意识到这样一个问题,所以也会有这样和反对派去进行接触的这样一个举动。其实在未来的话,可能不单单是和反对派,和现在的缅甸政府打交道的问题,另外还有一点是中国怎么样利用自己和缅甸是邻国,包括中国在过去和缅甸的一系列的关系,包括很多的边境的少数民族对于中国政府的期待等等很多的这些原因,让自己如何发挥一个更重要的、更关键的作用,其实也是一个值得思考的问题。

So this point,I want to in the past these days,See Japan/The European,Including the United States, and so on in Burma after so much action,I think the Chinese government is also very keenly aware of such a problem,So there will be such and opposition to contact for such a move.In the future,May be not just and the opposition,And now the Burmese government to deal with problems,Another thing is how China to use its own and Burma's neighbours,Including China and Burma in the past a series of relations,Including many border of ethnic minorities in China the government expected, etc. Many of these reasons,Let you how to play a more important/A key role,Is a question worth thinking about.



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