海关总署公布的4月出口14.7%的同比增幅高于上月10%的数据，大大超出了市场预期。让人闪过的第一个念头便是：欧美经济大复苏了？

海关总署公布的4月出口14.7%的同比增幅高于上月10%的数据,More than market expectations.Let people first thought is:Europe and the United States economic recovery?

　　然而这跟国外所反映的经济情况有所偏差。从全球角度看，虽然外需有所回暖，但其他国家外贸数据显示，全球需求复苏并不显著。

然而这跟国外所反映的经济情况有所偏差.From a global perspective,Although the external demand improvements,但其他国家外贸数据According to,Global demand recovery is not significant.

　　那问题出在哪儿呢？显然是在香港的贸易数据上，因为该项实在太不正常了。4月内地与香港的贸易同比增长了55%，而对其他国家和地区的增幅仅为12%。同时，内地对香港贸易顺差为382亿美元，而当月整体顺差规模仅为182亿美元。这些数据的巨大增幅和强烈反差显然是不正常的。

那问题出在哪儿呢?Apparently on Hong Kong's trade data,Because this is so abnormal.Mainland and Hong Kong April trade rose 55% year-on-year,For other countries and regions, the growth rate is only 12%.At the same time,The mainland to Hong Kong trade surplus of $38.2 billion,While the overall surplus is only $18.2 billion.These huge growth data and contrast is obviously not normal.

　　外贸行当实在水太深。就拿一季度出口的显著复苏和巨大的数据差异来说，背后潜藏着太多不可告人的东西。

外贸行当实在水太深.Take the first-quarter exports of recovery and dramatic difference between the data significantly,Lurking behind too many dirty things.

　　在深圳关卡，流行着一种操作，叫做“保税区一日游”。就是加工贸易企业将所采购的国内生产的中间投入品，先出口香港等境外，再办理进口手续的操作办法。由于保税物流中心等同于“境内关外”，所以现在企业不必到香港或者公海进行“一日游”，只需将货物入保税物流中心“一日游”，既节省了运输成本，又缩短了时间，而且手续简单。

在深圳关卡,Popular a kind of operation,Is called the"A day at the bonded area".Is the processing trade enterprises will purchase the domestic production of intermediate inputs,First exported to Hong Kong and other overseas,And operating methods of the import formalities.Due to the bonded logistics center is equal to"Within the territory of the commissioner",So now enterprise need not to Hong Kong or on the high seas"A day trip",Just put the goods into the bonded logistics center"A day trip",Saves transportation cost,And shorten the time,And simple procedures.

　　这种虚假贸易的好处是，对于上游企业，货物进保税物流中心就视同出口，可以立即退税。而下游企业只需从保税物流中心进口货物，向海关以“加工贸易手册”方式申报进口，就能享受进口物件免缴关税、增值税的待遇。这大大缩短了退税周期，加快了资金流转。

这种虚假贸易的好处是,For the upstream enterprise,Is regarded as export goods into the bonded logistics center,Can refund immediately.And the downstream enterprises only need to import the goods from the bonded logistics center,In to the customs"Processing trade manual"Way to declare imports,Can enjoy the imported objects from tariffs/Treatment of VAT.It greatly shortens the refund period,To speed up the capital flow.

　　虚假贸易不算什么，很多国家也都存在，但对于香港和深圳这么特殊的地区来说，背后有着更为惊人的秘密。在当前的香港市场，如果美元对人民币的汇率是6.2的话，那么在内地市场中，美元对人民币的汇率则往往高于这个数，比如是6.25。在虚假贸易中，内地企业出口1亿美元货物到香港，将所得的1亿美元在内地结汇，可获得6.25亿元人民币，再将同一批货物由香港进口回保税区，而此时企业只需向香港支付6.2亿元人民币。于是在虚假贸易中，货物的一进一出，这个企业就可获取500万元人民币的套利收入。在这个过程中，内地市场凭空增加的1亿美元外汇，也就是热钱已经借道流入。

虚假贸易不算什么,Many countries are also exist,But for Hong Kong and shenzhen so special,More startling secret behind it.In the current market in Hong Kong,If the dollar against the yuan's exchange rate is 6.2,So in the mainland market,Dollar against the renminbi's exchange rate is often higher than the number,For example is 6.25.In a false trade,The mainland enterprises to export $100 million in goods to Hong Kong,Will use the proceeds of $100 million in foreign exchange settlement on the mainland,May obtain 625 million yuan RMB,Then with a batch of goods imported from Hong Kong back to the bonded area,While the enterprises only need to pay RMB 620 million to the Hong Kong.So in a false trade,A into a cargo,The enterprise can obtain arbitrage income is 5 million yuan RMB.In the process,The mainland market increased $100 million in foreign exchange out of thin air,Is the hot money has been checked into.

　　那么，这种汇差套利在香港和内地为什么会成立呢？其实，汇差套利是一个全球性的套利方式，然而在大部分地区，因为套利的及时性，市场本身会使得汇差在套利投机的平衡下趋于一致，套利就会短时间内消失。

那么,Why carry this rate in Hong Kong and the mainland set up?In fact,Rate is a global arbitrage,However, in most areas,Because of the timeliness of arbitrage,The market itself will make the rate under the balance of arbitrage speculation into line,Arbitrage can disappear in a short period of time.

　　但这种套利遇到香港和内地这么特殊的情况时，一切都变了。内地与香港巨大的资本管制差异，使得这一套利空间没有被投机资本迅速抹平，反而越来越大。

但这种套利遇到香港和内地这么特殊的情况时,Everything has changed.Dramatic difference between the capital controls in China and Hong Kong,Make the arbitrage space has not been speculative capital quickly erased,Instead, more and more big.

　　造成这种情况的根源，很大程度上与内地的资本管制政策有关。内地限制境外资本的无序流入，而香港作为金融自由港，则没有这种限制。近些年，无论是出于押注中国经济崩盘准备低位接盘的外资，还是看好中国经济增长的热钱，无不涌向中国地区。然而受制于内地的资本管制，大量资本滞留香港，这就导致了一个问题内地资本管制之下，外币兑换人民币的需求，相比香港相对自由的兑换，显然低了一个级别，这就造成了“人民币在香港更值钱”的结局。

造成这种情况的根源,Largely related to the mainland's capital controls policy.The disorder of mainland restrictions on foreign capital inflows,And Hong Kong as a financial freeport,Then there is no such restrictions.In recent years,Whether for betting on China's foreign economic collapse ready to lower flange,Hot money on China's economic growth,All flocked to China.However, subject to the mainland's capital controls,A lot of capital stranded in Hong Kong,This leads to the question under mainland capital controls,Demand for foreign currency into RMB,Compared with Hong Kong's relatively liberal exchange,Apparently low a level,This creates a"The renminbi in Hong Kong is more valuable"The end of the.

　　这种套利格局如果得到投机资本的活动，将迅速消失，然而恰恰是资本管制的存在，套利格局不但没有缩小反而进一步累积。去年11月左右，内地与香港的人民币汇差达到极致，这就催生出了汇差套利的逐利需求。虚假贸易让大量热钱涌入内地，人民币近期升值加剧就与此有关。

这种套利格局如果得到投机资本的活动,Will quickly disappear,However, exactly is the presence of capital controls,Arbitrage has further accumulated rather than narrow the pattern.In November last year or so,Culminating in the mainland and Hong Kong's renminbi rate,This has spawned rate arbitrage profit requirements.False trade for a large number of hot money influx of mainland,RMB appreciation increase is related to this.

　　看来近期舆论高度关注的一批货物出口80次的闹剧也不是没有可能了。那么这种贸易下的套利资金规模会有多大呢？如果以去年同期我国对香港的出口增速为正常值计算，今年有大约600亿美元左右的资金通过与香港的虚假贸易进入内地，接近出口总值的10%。

看来近期舆论高度关注的一批货物出口80次的闹剧也不是没有可能了.Arbitrage funds in this trade would be how much?If in the same period of last year China's export growth for the normal calculating of Hong Kong,About $60 billion this year through false trade with Hong Kong into the mainland,Close to 10% of the total cost of the export.

　　外贸行业真的是水很深。与汇差套利方式相比，息差套利也算是一个非常有“潜力”的备选者。

外贸行业真的是水很深.Compared with the rate arbitrage approach,Spread arbitrage is a very"The potential"The candidate.

　　息差套利主要体现在企业“内保外贷”和类似“融资铜”这两条套利途径上。

息差套利主要体现在企业"Qualify for credit within"And similar"The financing of copper"The two carry on the way.

　　所谓内保外贷，就是企业向国内银行提供担保，由国外银行提供贷款。境外利率通常为3%-5%，较低的利率成为融资的有效渠道。然而近几年，融资进入内地的并非人民币贷款，而更多是以进口商品或其他形式大量涌入，加上近几年民间融资压力加大，民间融资利率与银行利率存在着巨大的差额，这些流入国内的资本便运用这些差额，进行套利活动。

所谓Qualify for credit within,Is the enterprise provide guaranty for domestic Banks,Provided by the foreign bank loans.Foreign interest rate is usually 3% to 5%,Lower interest rates become effective financing channels.However, in recent years,Not all financing to enter mainland renminbi loans,But more is an influx of imports or other forms,Combined with folk financing pressure in recent years,Folk financing rates and there is a huge difference between bank rate,These flows into domestic capital and use the balance,Arbitrage activities.

　　融资铜的活动也大体如此，就是套利机构在期货市场买入一批期货合约，以此为担保获得银行贷款，再用这笔贷款进行社会融资的高利率活动以获得高额的利差受益。这种金融活动的规模是非常巨大的。近期期货市场上期铜价大跌也与此有关。

The financing of copper的活动也大体如此,Is the arbitrage mechanism in futures market to buy a batch of futures contracts,In order to guarantee access to bank loans,With the loan rates for social financing activities in order to obtain high benefit spreads.The financial activities of the scale is very large.As copper prices tumbled recently futures market is also related to this.

　　无论如何，大规模热钱围城，甚至是伺机涌入的背景已经无法更改，因为这种背景是建立在中国经济的高速发展之上。为此，中国的资本管制在特殊的经济时期是必须存在的，这直接关系到中国金融市场的安全。但需要反思的是，资本管制在汹涌的外资面前，虽然形成了中国经济的防火墙，但并没有使这种围城的趋势减缓。所以，外资借道涌入，是一种围城趋势中的必然结局，在严格查处相关企业的同时，国内也需要正视这一现象。（许一力）

无论如何,Massive hot money siege,Even to the influx of background already cannot change,Because of this background is based on the rapid development of China's economy.To do this,China's capital controls must exist in the special economic period,This is directly related to the safety of the financial market in China.But need to reflect on,Capital controls in front of the surge of foreign investment,Although formed China's economic firewalls,But didn't make this trend slowing of the siege.so,Through foreign investment inflow,Is a kind of inevitable outcome in siege trend,In a strictly investigate relevant enterprises at the same time,国内也需要正视这一phenomenon.(Xu Yili)