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钢铁业无序之忧:一吨钢利润不够买张地铁票--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-10-09
一斤螺纹钢不足两块钱,比番茄、胡萝卜还便宜。钢材在白菜价甩卖。持续走低的价格挤压着钢企的利润空间。中国钢铁工业协会的数据显示,今年上半年,钢铁行业的销售利润率由去年同期的3.06%,降至仅0.13%。
A catty of deformed steel bar, less than two dollars,Than tomatoes/Carrots also cheap.The steel products in Chinese cabbage price sale.Falling prices extruding the steel enterprise profit space.The China iron and steel industry association figures show,In the first half of this year,Iron and steel industry's return on sales by 3.06% for the same period last year,Down to only 0.13%.
秋老虎还未走开,钢铁行业却感受到了刺骨的凉意。
After summer is not go away,Iron and steel industry is feeling bitter cool idea.
一吨钢利润不够买张地铁票
A ton to profit is not enough to buy a ticket
"现在钢铁行业卖一吨钢的利润是1.68元。"8月23日,中国钢铁协会副会长王晓齐在2012中国煤焦产业链供需形势高峰论坛上介绍钢铁企业效益。
"Now for a ton to iron and steel industry of the profit is 1.68 yuan."On August 23,,The China iron and steel association, vice chairman of China's coke industry chain in 2012 WangXiaoJi supply and demand situation peak BBS is introduced on the iron and steel enterprise benefit.
很难想象,销售这样一吨大宗商品的利润还不够买一张2块钱的北京地铁车票。随着上市公司半年报的陆续披露,市场对钢铁企业的艰难局面有了更直观的感受。据万得资讯,44家上市钢铁企业中,37家上半年净利润同比下降,13家出现亏损。9月12日,原广州市委书记张广宁履新鞍钢集团董事长兼党委书记,人们纷纷揣测这一任命的深意--鞍钢股份(000898.SZ)上半年的亏损额达20亿元,不仅领亏上市钢企,亏损额在整个沪深上市公司中也属罕见。究其原因,居高不下的原燃料价格和大幅减少的市场需求是导致钢铁全行业挣扎在亏损边缘的"罪魁祸首"。
It is hard to imagine,Sales such a ton of commodity profit is not enough to buy a $2 of the Beijing subway ticket.As a listed company half of the annual report disclosure in succession,Market for iron and steel enterprise's difficult situation have a more intuitive feelings.According to all information to,44 listed in iron and steel enterprise,And in the first half net profit year-on-year drop home,13 home occurrence loss.On September 12,,The guangzhou municipal party committee secretary ZhangGuangNing newly angang group chairman and secretary of the party committee,People have a profound speculation appointed - angang shares(000898 SZ)Loss in the first half of 2 billion yuan,Not only brought kui listed steel enterprises,Amount of loss in the Shanghai and shenzhen in the listed companies are rare.Investigate its reason,The original high fuel prices and greatly reduce the market demand is lead to iron and steel industry all struggle in the edge of the loss"culprit".
中钢协监测的国内钢材综合价格指数(CSPI)自去年下半年就一路走低,现在每吨钢材价格已同比下降近千元。1-7月全国固定资产投资增速比去年同期下降5个百分点,制造业PMI跌落至50.1。投资和制造业的"降温"在短期内难改变。"房地产调控政策的持续,高铁建设规模缩水,造船业新接的订单数目减少,汽车产业增长放缓,这些都直接减少了钢材的需求。"中国钢铁协会副秘书长屈秀丽向《中国经济周刊》感慨。
Steel association monitoring domestic steel composite price index(CSPI)Since the second half of last year is dropping,Now every tons of steel prices have year-on-year decline of nearly one thousand yuan.1 - July national fixed asset investment growth 5% lower than the same period last year,Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1.Investment and manufacturing"cooling"In the short term NaNan change."The real estate regulation policy of continuous,High iron construction scale shrink,Shipbuilding new answered the reduction in the number of orders,Automobile industry growth,These are directly reduce the steel demand."The China iron and steel association deputy secretary-general to QuXiuLi[China economic weekly]regrets.
屈秀丽说,自从2010年"长协"定价废除以后,三大矿山的铁矿石就按照普氏指数一直在涨价,高成本导致了我国钢铁企业利润减少。尽管今年以来铁矿石价格每吨降了200元左右,但比起螺纹钢等钢材产品多达上千元的降幅,对改善钢企盈利水平是杯水车薪。
QuXiuLi said,Since 2010"Long association"Pricing after the abolition of,Three big mining of iron ore is in accordance with the proctor index has been rise in price,High cost led to our country iron and steel enterprise profits.Although since this year iron ore price per ton down 200 yuan or so,But compared with deformed steel bar and other steel products by as many as thousands of yuan,To improve the steel enterprise profit level is ocean.
财务费用也让钢企头疼。2011年钢铁企业的融资成本超过620亿元,同比上升40%,但去年全行业仍然实现了800多亿元的利润。今年上半年,经历了两次降息,钢铁企业的融资成本已是400多亿元,同比上升了37%,全行业的利润却仅剩23亿元。数据显示,今年上半年有29家上市钢企财务费用超过其净利润。
Financial expense also let steel enterprises have a headache.2011 iron and steel enterprise's financing costs more than 62 billion yuan,Up 40%,But last year the industry still achieved more than 800 yuan in profits.In the first half of this year,Through two to cut interest rates,Iron and steel enterprise's financing cost is more than 400 yuan,37% year-on-year,The industry profits but with only 2.3 billion yuan.Data display,In the first half of this year 29 listed steel enterprises financial expenses exceed its net profit.
加工商在转移
Processors in the transfer
产业链的疼痛迅速传递,下游厂商早已瞄准新的利润增长点。
The industrial chain of pain quickly transfer,Downstream manufacturers had already aimed at new profit growth point.
何周明已悄然在老家四川省新投资了一家钢材加工厂,同时准备将位于河北张家口的老厂给关掉,尽管那里凝聚了他十几年的心血。
What zhou Ming has quietly in the sichuan province new investment in a steel plant,At the same time ready to in zhangjiakou, hebei province is located in the old factory to turn off,Although there condensed his more than ten years of painstaking effort.
"从去年11月份开始钢材价格持续走低,为保利润,有加工企业开始偷工减料。"何周明对《中国经济周刊》坦言,"这样下去,市场发展空间不大。"
"Since last November steel prices continue to decline,For the profit,A processing enterprises began to cut corners."To what zhou Ming[China economic weekly]said,"If it goes on like this,,The market development space is not large."
他经营的京通钢结构工程有限公司主要做钢板和型材的深加工,产品主要用于厂房、工地的建设。随着全社会固定资产投资额增速放缓,何周明公司的销售也遭遇冲击。今年上半年他的公司销售量同比下降了40%左右,基本处于盈亏相抵的状态。
His conduct of the Beijing pass steel structure engineering co., LTD is mainly do steel plate and profiles of the deep processing,The products are mainly used for building/Site construction.Along with the social fixed assets investment growth is slowing,What zhou Ming company's sales also encounter impact.In the first half of this year his company sales fell 40% year-on-year,Basic in the profit and loss balance state.
凭着多年在钢材加工领域打拼的经验,何周明认为,今年是调整经营区域的好时机。据他介绍,当地市场近50%的钢材加工商准备外迁,他知道的就已有2家去了新疆,2家去了俄罗斯远东地区,4家去了巴中,6家到了南充。
With many years in steel processing field fight experience,Zhou Ming think what,This year is a good time to adjust business area.According to he introduced,Local market nearly 50% of steel processors ready to outsourcing,He know has two went to xinjiang,Two went to the far east area of Russia,Four bazhong to,Six in the.
经过一番考察,何周明决定将公司迁回四川宜宾。他注意到,尽管国家在控制总投资规模,但加大西部基础设施投资的方针未变,这意味着西部地区仍有广阔的市场空间。"当地政府的招商引资力度也很大。"他补充道。比如这次在四川,当地政府对他前三年的税收就给予了不同程度的减免。
After some investigation,What zhou Ming decided to make the company QianHui sichuan yibin.He noticed,Although the national in the control total investment scale,But increase the western infrastructure investment policy has not changed,This means that the western region still has broad market space."The local government investment dynamics is very big also."He added.Such as this in sichuan,The local government to his first three years of tax to a different degree of relief.
何周明认为下半年钢材价格会企稳。受政策利好影响,市场也似乎嗅到了基础设施建设投资力度加大的气息,螺纹钢1301期货合约目前已扭转跌势,自9月6日以来,几乎日日收涨。
The second half of what zhou Ming think the price of steel will stabilises.Good effect by the policy,The market also seems to smell the infrastructure construction investment increase breath,Rebar 1301 futures contract has torsion fall,Since September 6, since,Almost every day ended up.
尽管在川初期投资仅几千万元,但何周明准备年底在四川南充和巴中等地区追加投资2亿~3亿元。
Although the initial investment in sichuan only tens of millions of yuan,But what zhou Ming ready to the end of the year in sichuan bazhong and other regions in nanchong and additional investment of 200 million ~ 300 million yuan.
担心再来一个"四万亿"
Worry about one more"Four trillion"
限制过剩产能已成为业内共识。"钢铁业需要借助这一时机,积极转变生产方式,调整产品结构、大力降低生产成本、实现市场化转型。我们预计这一过程可能会持续3到5年。"屈秀丽对《中国经济周刊》表示。
Limit excess capacity has become the industry consensus."Iron and steel industry need from that time,Positive transformation mode of production,Adjust product structure/To reduce the production cost/Realize marketization transformation.We expect that this process may last 3 to 5 years."QuXiuLi to[China economic weekly]said.
冰冻三尺非一日之寒。
Rome was not built in a day.
广发证券一位不愿透露姓名的钢铁行业研究员告诉《中国经济周刊》,钢铁行业的整体性繁荣时期已经过去,当前的产能过剩均是由于前几年产能过分扩张所致。而日本等发达国家的钢铁业都经历过这样一个阶段。
Wide hair negotiable securities one does not wish to disclose the name of the iron and steel industry researcher told[China economic weekly],The integrity of the iron and steel industry boom has in the past,The current excess capacity are due to a few years ago caused by excessive production capacity expansion.But Japan and so on developed country's steel industry have experienced such a stage.
但屈秀丽认为,不能将行业定性为产能过剩。"产能过剩只是个表象。实际上是多年钢铁行业无序发展的结果。"她介绍,钢铁协会会员企业纷纷通过检修等手段实行限产,整个上半年产量是下降的,有些企业减产幅度还很大。但是许多地方小企业,产量仍然在增长,有些地方钢铁行业固定政策投资还在增加。
But QuXiuLi think,Not to be industry qualitative for excess capacity."Excess capacity is a representation.For many years is actually the result of the development of iron and steel industry disorder."She introduces,Iron and steel association member enterprises have through the repair, and other means to effects,In the first half of the entire production is falling,Some enterprise output amplitude is very big still.But many local small business,Yields are still growing,In some places, iron and steel industry policy of fixed investment is increasing.
地方钢企普遍受到地方政府保护,并不认真执行限制产能的政策。从去年底开始,中钢协就号召钢铁企业主动减产,限产。数据显示,今年上半年中钢协非会员企业的粗钢产量大幅增长12.9%,而同期中钢协260家会员企业粗钢产量却同比下降0.1%。年产100万吨以上的钢铁企业通常是中钢协会员,而非会员企业多为长期野蛮生长的地方小型钢企。
Local steel enterprises generally by the local government protection,Not serious restrictions on the policy of production capacity.Start from the end,Steel association is called on iron and steel enterprise production initiative,Effects of.Data display,In the first half of this year steel association nonmember enterprise's crude steel production sharply increased by 12.9%,Over the same period, the 260 members of the steel enterprise crude steel production is 0.1% year-on-year drop.With an annual capacity of 1 million tons of iron and steel enterprise is usually steel association member,And nonmember enterprise more for long-term savage growth place small steel enterprises.
但业内人士真正担忧的是宏观经济政策的调整。若再来一个"四万亿",会刺激部分钢铁企业继续扩大产能。
But the personage inside course of study really concerned about is macroeconomic policy adjustment.If we come to a"Four trillion",Can stimulate part of iron and steel enterprises continue to expand capacity.
9月5日-6日,发改委密集批复了一批轨道交通建设规划和公路建设共计36个项目,投资总规模预计超过8400亿元。据笼统计算,城市轨道交通建设每投资1亿元,将拉动钢材消费1万吨左右(包括车站、设备等)。意味着这次城轨项目的批复将带动广义钢材消费8400万吨以上。
On September 5, - 6,,Development and reform commission intensive reply a batch of orbit transportation construction programming and a total of 36 highway construction project,The overall investment scale is expected to exceed 840 billion yuan.According to the general calculation,Urban rail transit construction investment 100 million yuan each,Will pull the steel consumption 10000 tons(Including the station/Equipment, etc).Means that the city rail project reply will drive the generalized steel consumption 84 million tons.
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