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战胜本能 抵抗波动 资产配置是王道--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-08-01
资产配置可让投资者不至于因为某一次的投资失利而赔上所有心血,更主要的是,无数前车之鉴表明,这一方法也是战胜短期恐慌和人性贪婪的终极武器。确定和调整资产配置并不是什么太复杂的事儿,只要你不想跟巴菲特一较高下,那不过就是制定一个“低买高卖”的制度罢了。关键是,你要真的把它作为制度去认真执行。
Asset allocation can let investors not because a certain investment loss and lose all the blood,More major is,Numerous mistakes suggests,This method is also win over short-term panic and humanity greed the ultimate weapon。Identify and adjusting asset allocation is not what too complicated thing,As long as you don't want to with buffett a higher,It is make a“Buying low and selling high”System just。Key is,You have to really take it as a system to implement。
林隽/文
Modality/wen
一直以来,围绕资产配置的口水仗经久不息。
Has been,Around the saliva battle asset allocation and there。
17世纪初,西班牙著名作家塞万提斯在《堂吉诃德》中忠告说:“不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。”而300年后,当过淘金工人、颇具冒险精神的美国作家马克·吐温在《傻瓜威尔逊》中反驳:“愚蠢的人说,不要把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里;而聪明的人却说,把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里,然后看管好那个篮子。”几十年来,在金融学术圈和华尔街关于“资产配置重要性”的争辩更有愈演愈烈的趋势,动不动就上升到诺贝尔奖的层次。
17 th century,Spain famous writer in Cervantes《Don Quixote was》Advice said in:“Don't put all your eggs in one basket。”And 300 years later,When a gold rush, workers、An adventure of American writer Mark Twain in《A fool Wilson》Rebuttal in:“Stupid people say,Don't put the eggs in one basket;But smart said,Put the eggs in one basket,And then watch that basket。”For decades,In the academic circle and Wall Street financial about“Asset allocation importance”Debate is more intensified trend,Is apt to rise to the level of the Nobel Prize。
对于这个绝非是非此即彼、非黑即白的问题,投资者不应继续纠结于做还是不做,而是应该认真思考如何执行。发挥国人中庸的优良传统,其实不把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里与看管好篮子,在资讯如此发达的今天并没有太多的矛盾,人们只要把握好一个“度”:不要把鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里,也不用放在几十个篮子里。因为对于大多数人,既没有那么多鸡蛋,也没有那么大地方放太多的篮子。根据自身情况把每只鸡蛋放到适当的篮子里,才是考验投资者智慧的挑战。
This is not to be done、Either black or white,Investors should not continue to entanglements in do or not do,But should seriously think about how to perform。Play americans middle fine tradition,In fact not the eggs in one basket and watch basket,In the information so developed today and not too many contradictions,People want to hold good one“degrees”:Don't put the eggs in one basket,Also need not on dozens of the basket。Because for most people,Neither so many eggs,Is not that big a place to put too much of the basket。According to oneself circumstance eggs on each appropriate basket,Is the wisdom of test investor challenge。
资产配置有多重要?
How important asset allocation?
获得稳定报酬、降低投资风险,是很多经历了证券市场起起伏伏的投资者的诉求。在中国目前较高成长性和波动性的市场环境中,进行着眼于未来5年、10年的投资规划已变得越来越重要,其中,品种选择固然是第一要务,但配置的好坏可能会在更大程度上影响最后的投资结果。海外一份研究报告显示,影响投资报酬与风险最大的因素是“资产配置”,影响程度高达91.5%。
A stable remuneration、Reduces the risk of investment,The stock market is a lot of experience ups and downs of the appeal to investors。In China, growth and higher volatility in the market environment,To focus on the next five years、10 years of investment planning has become more and more important,Among them,Variety is a first priority,But the stand or fall of configuration may be greater influence on the final investment results。Overseas a report,Affect investment return and risk factors is the largest“Asset allocation”,Influence degree is as high as 91.5%。
资产配置就是将资金分别投资到各种不同的资产类别,经由长期持有及持续投资来降低风险,以达到预设报酬的一种投资组合策略,亦即在“风险理财”与“无风险理财”之间求取平衡。资产配置以系统化分散投资来降低投资风险,借由不同金融工具的不一致性,也就是不会齐涨齐跌之特性,让各投资经过组合后达到预期的效果,这就是资产配置的优点。
Asset allocation is the capital investment to different respectively asset classes,Through the long hold and continued investment to reduce the risk,In order to achieve the default reward a portfolio strategy,I.e. in“Risk financial”and“No risk financial”For balance between。Asset allocation to systematize disperse investment to reduce investment risk,By different financial tools borrowed inconsistency,Also is not HuiJi up together the characteristics of the fall,Let each investment after combined to have the desired effect,This is the advantage of asset allocation。
我们不妨举个简单的例子,来直观了解资产配置的功效。投资者甲将10万元投资于某个单一资产,假设按每年5%投资回报率计算,其20年后的投资总值为26.5万元。投资者乙将10万元配置于不同的资产类别,有些造成亏损,但有些则给予正回报。由于可控制损失范围,总绩效反而比投资者甲好(表1)。两者初始投资额相同,20年后总值却相差1倍多。这即是“资产配置”的八字箴言:“控制风险、掌握获利。”也可充分论证资产配置对保护投资者资产的重要作用—在个人可忍受的风险范围内追求最大报酬。
We might as well give a simple example,To can learn about the asset allocation efficiency。Investors will be a $100000 investment in a single assets,Hypothesis by about 5% a year the return on investment is calculated,The 20 years of total investment is 265000 yuan。Investors will be 100000 yuan configuration in b different asset classes,Some cause losses,But some are given positive returns。Due to the loss of control range,The total performance than investors armor instead(Table 1)。Both the same initial investment,20 years later but gross more than double difference。That is“Asset allocation”Character 8 proverbs of:“Control risk、Master profit。”Can also be full discussion asset allocation to protect investors assets of the important role in individual can endure--within the scope of the biggest risk for pay。
进行资产配置的五步法则 The configuration of the five steps of assets to the law
既然资产配置如此重要,那它的具体细节或者说路线图是什么样的呢?为了更清楚地阐释这一问题,我们把资产配置的流程拆分成五个步骤:制定投资目标、选择资产类别、确定配置比例、选择投资方式、配置再平衡(附图)。
Now that asset allocation is so important,It details of the road map or is what kind of?In order to better explain the problem,We put the asset allocation process and divided into five steps:Making investment target、Choose asset class、Determine the proportion、Choose investment way、Configuration to balance(Appended drawings)。
第一步,制定投资目标
The first step,Making investment target
说到目标就有点像一个哲学问题,跟“人活着为什么”一样不好回答。有人会觉得,投资就是为了赚更多的钱。对于专业投资人士来说,这样的投资目标有点道理,因为赚钱多少就像他们职业的计分器,是衡量他们是否战胜同行的标尺;对于非投资行业的职业经理人或企业家而言,金融投资是他们事业之外的另一个领域,罔顾风险,一味追求高收益,不仅不能证明他们成功,反而会分散精力和财力,甚至危及他们的事业。我们从这次金融危机以来,众多由于过度投资、资金链断裂的跑路老板们身上,应该可以了解一二。
Say to the target is a bit like a philosophical question,with“People alive why”Answer as bad as。Someone will think,Investment is to earn more money。For investment professionals for example,Such investment target something there,For how much money as their professional JiFenQi,It is to measure whether they win over to gauge the counterparts;For the investment industry professional managers or entrepreneur,Financial investment is their business from the one field,Callous disregard risks,Devotion to high return,Not only can't prove their success,But will scatter your strength and financial resources,And even threaten their business。We from this financial crisis since,Many due to excessive investment、Capital chain rupture on the running of the way the bosses,Should be able to know just a little。
所以,对于绝大多数投资者,投资目标应该是服务于我们的具体财富需求,虽然期限可长可短,但都应该跟个人生活、机构主业紧密相连,比如买房、子女留学、养老,甚至社保基金兑付老百姓的养老钱。只有在契合具体财富需求的前提下,平衡风险和收益,才是有意义的投资目标。
so,For the vast majority of investors,Investment objectives should be service to our concrete wealth demand,Although the term can be long or short,But should with personal life、Agency industry closely linked,Such as buying a house、Children study abroad、endowment,Even the social security fund to common people's endowment money。Only in specific wealth with the demand of the premise,Balance risks and benefits,Is the significant investment objectives。
当投资目标确定以后,你的投资行为就不再是随机漫步,而是有既定方向和期限的理性投资行为。为了方便管理,我们还可以将投资目标量化为三个基本要素:预期收益率、预期波动幅度、资产流动性。
When investment after the goal set,Your investment behavior is not random walk,But there are established and the deadline rational direction investment behavior。In order to facilitate the management,We can also will invest goal quantification for three basic elements:Expected rate of return、Expected fluctuations、liquidity。
第二步,选择资产类别
The second step,Choose asset class
资产主要可以分成几大类:股票、固定收益证券(包括国债、债券基金、银行理财产品等)、房地产、私人股权、贵金属、商品以及具有保障功能的保险、具有欣赏价值的艺术品等。传统金融理论常常参考相关系数来配置资产,也就是越不相关的资产类别,越应该组合在一起,这样风险可以相互抵消。但在当前,经济环境日益复杂,产品之间的相关性出现越来越多的不确定性。而且对于普通投资者来说,研究产品之间的相关性实在是个太高深的问题,我们可以换一个角度来看待资产类别的选择。
Assets can be divided into several categories mainly:stock、Fixed income securities(Including national debt、Bond fund、Bank financing products, etc)、Real estate、Private equity、Precious metals、Commodities have safeguard function and the insurance、Appreciation value has works of art, etc。Traditional financial theory often reference to configure the correlation coefficient of assets,Also the relevant asset is not categories,The more should be combined together,Such risk can be offset each other。But in the current,Increasingly complex economic environment,The correlation between the products have more and more uncertainty。And for ordinary investors,Study of the relationship between the product was really a too advanced problem,We can change an Angle to look at the choice of asset classes。
在整个投资组合里的每一类资产就像梦幻团队的每一位成员一样,需要为团队作出特别的贡献,而且成员之间要互补,比如有的是负责进攻的前锋,有的是负责防守的后位,有的则是固守稳攻的自由人。而且我们对于不同的资产要有正确的认识。
In the portfolio of each kind of assets like dream team each member,Need to make a special contribution to the team,And between members to complementary,For example have a plenty of responsibility for the offensive striker,Have a plenty of responsible for the defense after a,Some is stuck in the attack on the free。And we for different assets should have a correct understanding。
投资产品就跟人一样,人无完人,投资产品也不可能既帮你赚大钱,又没有风险,在决策阶段我们就应该建立对各类资产特征的正确认识。比如长期来看,股票的收益率高于固定收益证券,但股票价格的波动远大于固定收益证券,如果你不能忍受任何波动,盲目投资股票,其结果一定是亏损;又比如债券基金是防御型投资产品,在市场不好时,可以很好地保护你的投资组合,但不具有进攻性,当市场好的时候,债券基金的收益一定会落后于股票基金,这时你不应该嫌弃这一品种,就像你不应该嫌弃老实可靠的老公不够浪漫一样;再比如PE类产品要求比较长的投资期限,一般是5年以上,如果你是动用了公司流动资金投资PE产品,那可能就麻烦大了。
Investment products like man,Nobody is perfect,Investment products and could not help you already make a lot of money,And no risk,We should be in decision-making stage to establish a correct understanding of the characteristics of all kinds of assets。Such as the long term,The yield on the stock higher than the fixed income securities,But stock prices move far outweigh the fixed income securities,If you can't stand any volatility,Blind investment stock,The results must be losses;And like a bond fund is an investment products,In the market is bad,Can be enough to protect your portfolio,But not aggressive,When the market is good,Bond fund income will be behind the stock funds,Then you should not abandon the varieties,As you should not abandon honest reliable husband very romantic;For another example PE products demand is long term investment,General is five years,If you are using the company capital flow investment PE products,That may be in big trouble。
总的来说,我们在选择资产类别时应该考虑几个问题:一、资产价值必须具有长期可持续性;二、能为整体投资组合带来不同于其他资产类别的作用;三、预期收益是以市场平均收益为基础,不依托于特殊的积极管理能力;四、投资产品交易市场较大,资产具有变现能力。
In general,We in the choice of asset classes should be considered when a few questions:a、Asset value must be a long-term sustainability;two、Can bring portfolio is different from other asset classes role;three、Expected returns on market average returns for the foundation,Don't rely on in special active management ability;four、Investment products trading market is bigger,With the liquidation ability。
第三步,确定组合的标准配置比例
The third step,Determine the proportion of the combination of standard
资产配置策略五花八门,应该说不同投资者的情况要采用不同的策略。市场上最流行的是根据经济变化进行动态资产配置的方法,其中具代表性的是2004年美林证券推出的“投资钟”模型。一切看起来很完美,但市场弄人,4年后,美林证券在次债危机中被美国银行收购。
Asset allocation strategy is multifarious,Should say different investors situation will use a different strategy。The market of the most popular is according to the economic changes the dynamic asset allocation methods,Among them is representative of the 2004 launch of merrill lynch“Investment clock”model。It all seems very perfect,But the market lane,Four years later,Merrill lynch in subprime mortgage crisis was acquired by bank of America。
模型做得很漂亮,可惜市场还是不能预测的。这也给“没有那么聪明的人”一个机会,以“阿甘”的精神确定我们的组合标配:以不变应万变。所以,大多数投资者更适用静态策略,也就是确定组合标配比例后,在3-5年甚至更长的时间内不做调整,除非发生非常重大事件影响到财富需求变化。
Model do very beautiful,But the market still can't predict。It also gives“Not that smart people”A chance,to“Forrest gump”Spirit make sure our combination with standard:With changeless should。so,Most investors is more static strategy,Also is to make sure that combination with standard after proportion,In the 3-5 years or even a longer time not done adjust,Unless there are very significant events affect wealth demand changes。
在所有静态策略中,比较常见的是风险匹配法,也就是根据投资者的风险评价结果来确定资产配置的标准比例。但在现实操作中我们发现,影响投资者风险评价结果的重要因素:“投资者风险态度”,受市场环境影响极大,使得风险评价常常无法帮助投资者进行正确的资产配置。有两种更简单且在实践中更具操作性的静态配置策略:三三法和核心资产法。
In all static strategies,The more common risk is matching method,Also is the risk evaluation results according to investors to determine the standard of asset allocation proportion。But in real operation we found,Influence of the evaluation results investors risk factors:“Investors risk attitude”,By market environment has great influence,Make risk assessment often can't help investors for the right asset allocation。There are two more simple and in practice more operational static configuration strategy:Three 3 laws and core ZiChanFa。
三三法就是我们选择三类主要资产来组成投资组合,每类资产在总资产中的比例为1/3。比如我们选择了最常见的资产类别:股票、固定收益证券、房地产,那么这三类资产各占总资产的1/3。
Three 3 laws is we choose three main assets to form a portfolio,Each type of assets in the ratio of total assets for a third。For example we choose the most common asset classes:stock、Fixed income securities、Real estate,So the three kinds of assets account for one-third of the total assets。
核心资产法就是将我们的总资产的绝大部分作为核心资产,以实现长期投资目标,并且不轻易变动,剩下小部分作为卫星资产,可以用于实现除了长期投资目标之外的需求,比如追求高风险的超额收益,或者某种艺术品的收藏爱好等。
The core ZiChanFa is our most of the total assets as a core assets,In order to achieve long-term investment objectives,And slow to change,A left a satellite in assets,Can be used to achieve long-term investment outside the target in addition to demand,Such as the pursuit of high risk excess profits,Or a work of art collection hobbies, etc。
举例来说,在这个梦想与现实结合的过程中,我们还需要对各类资产未来收益率和波动幅度进行一些假设。由于中国股市和商品房市场的历史较短,我们将以近百年来美国各类资产平均收益率数据为参考。我们现在要为一个中产家庭建立稳健增长的投资组合,其长期投资目标是保障高品质的退休生活,我们选择股票、固定收益证券、房地产三类主要资产,并用三三法确定标准配置比例(表2)。
For example,In the dream with reality in the process,We also need to all kinds of assets and wave amplitude of future yields some assumptions。Because of China's stock market and commodity house market history is relatively short,We will be up to one hundred years to come to the United States all kinds of assets average yield data for reference。We are going to be for a middle-class family establish robust growth portfolio,Its long-term investment aim is to ensure the high quality of retirement,We choose our stock、Fixed income securities、Real estate three main assets,By three 3 laws determine standard allocation proportion(Table 2)。
对于这个配置比例,投资者可以根据自己情况进行调整,比如你不看好房地产的长期走势,那么这1/3的资产还有很多选择:可以抵御美元贬值的黄金,分散汇率和国别风险的海外基金,具有保障功能的保险,可能产生超额收益的PE,甚至你可以将其中一半投入分红稳定的蓝筹股票(以当前金融股年均4%的分红来说,这也是非常不错的选择),另一半投入风险高于普通固定收益证券的信托产品。总之资产配置中,各类资产要各司其职,而且配置比例一旦确定,就要将其作为投资制度,一以贯之地执行。
For the allocation proportion,Investors can be adjusted according to their own situation,For example you don't value of real estate long-term trends,So this one third of the assets and a lot of choices:Can resist the falling dollar gold,The risk of exchange rate and the scattered country overseas fund,Have the insurance safeguard function,May produce excess profits of PE,You can even half of them in the blue chip stock dividends stability(With the current financial an average of 4% for share out bonus,This is also very good choice),The other half investment risk more than the average fixed income securities trust products。In all asset allocation,All kinds of assets to do their own work,And when you determine the proportion,Will it as investment system,The up and execution。
道理很简单,做到不容易。问题关键在于许多人还是心存侥幸,希望自己就是那个被天上掉下来的馅饼砸到的人,但天上通常掉下来的不是馅饼,而是石头。要克服这个心魔其实也有办法,在确定组合标配阶段,参照核心资产法,把资产区分为核心资产和卫星资产,你大可以拿所有的卫星资产去买彩票,说不定就有幸成为那个117注中了5.7亿元的幸运宝贝。
It is simple,Do not easy to。The key is to many people question or take any chances,Hope is that was dropped from the sky pie hit man,But heaven usually drop down of is not a pie,But stone。To overcome the demons in fact also had a way of heart,In determining the combination with standard stage,With reference to the core ZiChanFa,The distinction is the core assets and satellite assets,You can take all the satellite assets to buy lottery tickets,Maybe he was very lucky to be the 117 note in the 570 million yuan lucky baby。
第四步,选择投资方式
Step 4,Choose investment way
对于单个资产类别的具体投资方式,投资者有三个选择:自己投资、请专业人士代劳、进行指数化投资。这三种方法没有对错之分,完全看投资者的个人喜好和自身情况而定。指数化投资相对比较简单,可以直接购买ETF(交易所交易基金),基本确保取得市场收益率,而且成本较低;请专业人士代劳,在选择投资经理时,应该多花一些心思,错误的选择可能使正确的资产配置策略得不到实施,从而影响投资目标的实现;自己投资是一件比较有趣的事情,参与者可以直接决定你的资产波动,体验其中激动人心、惊心动魄的每一个时刻,当然这也需要耗费很多时间和精力。
For a single asset classes of specific investment,Investors have three options:Their investment、Please professional help、The index for investment。The three methods no right or wrong,Fully see investors individual be fond of and their own up。The index investment is relatively simple,Can directly buy etfs(Exchange-traded funds),Make sure to make the basic market yields,And the cost is low;Please professional help,In the choice of investment manager,Should spend some of idea,The wrong choice may make the right asset allocation strategies can not get implemented,Thus affect investment targets;Their investment is a very interesting,Participants can directly determine your assets fluctuations,Experience their exciting、Thrilling every moment,Of course this also need to spend a lot of time and energy。
投资者也可以根据自身的情况在不同资产类别中采用不同的投资方式,比如固定收益证券类采用请人代劳的方式,购买债券基金;股票投资采用指数化投资的方式,购买ETF;房地产投资采用自己投资的方式。还是那句话,在投资方式的选择时,没有最好,只有最适合,一定要综合考虑自身的资源和优势,合理选择。
Investors can also according to the circumstance of oneself in different asset classes with different kinds of investment,Such as fixed income securities using please people seem way,Buy bond fund;Using the index of stock investment investment way,Buy ETF;Real estate investment by way of their investments。Or that sentence,In the choice of the ways of investment,Not the best,Only the most suitable for,Must consider their own resources and comprehensive advantage,Reasonable choice。
第五步,配置再平衡
Step 5,Configuration to balance
资产配置中最难把握的是配置再平衡环节。在这个环节,投资者最纠结的是:“股票还在跌,我是不是该先卖掉,跌得再低的时候我再买回来?”答案是不可以,因为在市场低位的时候,错过上涨可能带来的损失远大于倒差价可能赚到的那一点点利润。
The most difficult of asset allocation grasp configuration is to balance the link。In this section,The investors of tangled is:“Stocks also fell in,I ain't is should sell before,To fall again low when I buy back?”The answer is no,Because of the low in the market,Miss the loss that might be brought up than down price difference that the little potential to earn profits。
在调整资产配置时,理论上最佳的策略是逆势投资,也就是“大家都亏损的时候我出手,大家都赚钱的时候我离场”。但理论和现实的距离就是“小散”与巴菲特的距离,相当于资产后面那无数个零。如果投资者觉得自己做不到,但身为专业人士的基金经理应该做到的话,可能有点不近情理。就像华尔街的现实版黑色幽默一样:网络股泡沫破灭之后,重仓网络股的基金经理因为亏损严重出局了,可没有投资网络股的基金经理在更早之前就出局了,因为基金被投资者给赎回光了。逆势的配置调整策略推行确实不易,这种策略可能导致基金经理短期内业绩落后于同行,而这个“短期”可能是指1年,也可能是2年,甚至5年。
In the adjustment of the asset allocation,In theory the best strategy is a contrarian investment,Also is“All the losses I make moves,All of the money when I leave”。But in theory and reality is the distance“Small scattered”And Mr Buffett's distance,Equivalent to assets behind that countless zero。If investors feel can't do,But as a professional fund manager should do it,Might be a little would。As the Wall Street of reality version black humor:After the dotcom bubble burst,Heavy warehouse the extent of the fund manager because of heavy losses out,Can not investing in the extent of the fund manager in earlier out,Because the funds are investors to redeem the light。The configuration of contrarian strategy implementation does not easy adjustment,This strategy can lead to fund managers in the short term performance behind peers,And this“short-term”Could be referring to 1 year,May also be 2 years,Even five years。
耶鲁大学基金投资总监斯文森在《机构投资与基金管理的创新》一书中曾讲到,上世纪90年代,美国佛罗里达州在选择资金管理公司时采取了一个看似非常“合理”的政策:让投资公司相互竞争,定期从回报率低的投资公司那里抽出资金交给回报较高的公司。当时有一家叫派泊的公司,管理的固定收益资金连续多年获得高回报,所以,根据佛罗里达州的政策,他们管理州政府的资金越来越多,而这些资金有超额回报的原因是大部分投入了风险较高的资产抵押贷款衍生品。
Yale university fund investment in SiWenSen director《Institutions and fund management innovation of investment》In the book had said,The 1990 s,Florida in the choice of fund management company adopted a seemingly“reasonable”policy:Let the investment company competition,From the regular rate of return is low investment company out there to return money higher company。When a company called piper company,Management of fixed income funds for many years earn higher returns,so,According to the policy of Florida,They management state funds more and more,While these funds have excess return is the cause of most of the investment risk higher asset mortgage derivatives。
当1994年加息开始时,大量投资者出逃,伴随债券需求萎缩,使抵押支持的衍生品在下跌之后又出现了非理性暴跌,而派泊公司管理的佛罗里达州“低风险”资金损失惨重。这时,佛罗里达州政府又根据政策从派泊公司抽回大量资金,从而错过了第二年利率恢复正常时,派泊公司管理资金收益的大幅回升。经过这么几次来回折腾,佛罗里达州资金管理的收益可想而知。投资者进行这种“倒金字塔”配置调整策略的行为是非常普遍的,不管是机构投资者还 是个人投资者。
When in 1994 when interest rates began,The number of investors to run away,With bond demand atrophy,To support the mortgage of the derivatives in after falling again irrational slump,And piper management of the company in Florida“Low risk”Capital losses。At this time,According to government policy and Florida from piper company pulled back a lot of capital,Thus missed the second annual interest rate back to normal,Piper company management of capital gains rebounded sharply。After such a few times over back and forth,Florida fund management earnings can be imagined。Investors for this“Pour pyramid”Configuration adjustment strategy behavior is very common,Whether investors still is a person investors。
这大概有两个原因:外界压力和趋利避害的本能,这些都是很难改变的。像佛罗里达州资金管理部门这样的大型机构尚且会采用如此政策,作为资金管理公司的投资经理们,也就没法想得太长远了。市场上到底没有多少人有巴菲特的实力,尽管可能被人讥笑“廉颇老矣”,但能够稳坐泰山。让他们冒着下课的风险逆势投资,无异于要求大家都是“活雷锋”一样。
This is about two reasons:The outside pressure and the disadvantages of instinct,These are hard to change。Like Florida fund management department such large institutions will have using this policy,As fund management company's investment managers,Also can't think too long。The market really not many have buffett's strength,Although it may be laughed at“Lian Po old”,But to sit on mount tai。Let them take the risk of class contrarian investing,Is everyone is required“Living lei feng”as。
所以,既然投资者是钱的主人,调整资产配置可能带来的风险还是要投资者自己承担。何况调整资产配置并不是什么太复杂的事儿,只要你不想跟巴菲特一较高下,不过就是制定一个“低买高卖”的制度罢了,而这个制度就是我们刚才已经确定了的组合标准配置比例。你可以每年根据组合标配对资产进行一次再平衡,比如股票涨了太多,卖掉超出标配比例的部分,投入到其他资产种类中;反之亦然。不同投资者再平衡的频率可以根据情况确定,但总的来说不应该太频繁,对于普通投资者,一年一次也就足够了。
so,Now that investors are the owner of the money,Adjust the asset allocation the risks or to share his investors。How much more asset allocation and adjust is not what is too complex business,As long as you don't want to with buffett a higher,But is make a“Buying low and selling high”System just,And this system is we just have determined the combination of standard configuration scale。You can according to the standard matching asset portfolio every year a balance again,Such as stock up too much,Sell beyond proportion with standard parts,Investment to other asset classes;And vice versa。The frequency of different investors to balance can be determined according to the circumstances,But in general should not be too frequently,For ordinary investors,Once a year will be enough。
每当金融危机扫过,资产配置类的经典书籍又会进入人们的视线,就像在市场泡沫阶段,选择成长股类的书籍更加受追捧一样,这也是千百年来人类在“恐惧”和“贪婪”的本能驱使之下,矢志不渝地追踪趋势的具体印证之一。但无数的前车之鉴表明,资产配置的确是我们战胜短期恐慌和贪婪的终极武器。
When the financial crisis swept,Asset allocation of classic books and will enter into the line of sight of people,Just like in the market bubble stage,Choose the books on growth stock more more popular,This is one thousand to years in human in“fear”and“greed”Under the instinct drives,Insist the tracks trend of one of specific seal。But numerous mistakes suggests,Asset allocation is indeed we win over short-term panic and greed the ultimate weapon。
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