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·今日微评--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-02

  鲁政委(兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家):

Lu commissar(Industrial bank(601166,Shares it)Chief economist):

  官方PMI在7月一般都是下降的,因而对本月的微幅下降不值得担忧。考虑到:1.中小型企业总指数回升,仅大企业下降,后者将受益于扩展政策的持续发酵而在未来改善;2.产成品库存大幅下降,原材料库存小幅上升,反映去库存近尾声,企业对前景预期改善,因此未来刺激政策只需落实维持,不必继续加力。

The official PMI in July are generally decline,So for this month's falling slightly not worrying。Considering the:1. The small and medium enterprise total index to bounce back,Only big enterprise dropped,The latter will benefit from the expansion of the policy for fermentation and improve in the future;2. The finished goods stock down dramatically,Raw material inventory a modest increase,Reflect to inventory draws near,Enterprise the prospects for the expected improvement,Therefore the future stimulus policy carry out only to maintain,Don't have to continue to strength。

  屈宏斌(汇丰大中华区首席经济学家):

QuHongBin(HSBC chief economist in the greater China region):

  从昨天高层对下半年经济工作的表态可以看到,高层已经充分意识到了经济的下行风险,并将稳增长和保就业放到了更突出位置。两次降息之外,日前将营改增试点扩大到10个省市,以及对基建相关投资加大资金支持等都将对未来增长构成支撑。关注下周将陆续公布的月度经济数据。

From yesterday to the second half of the top economic work statement can see,Top has been fully aware of the downside risk to the economy,And the firm growth and employment in the more prominent position。Two cuts away,Before the camp to expand the trial to 10 provinces and cities,As well as to the infrastructure related investment increase financial support for future growth will be supportive。Attention will be published next week in the monthly economic data。

  吴志峰(博客,微博)(金融经济学者):

WuZhiFeng(blog,Micro bo)(Financial economists):

  印度大停电的触因是夏季电网的超负荷运行,其背景则是电力基础设施严重不足。印度年发电量1.87亿千瓦,不到中国的20%,电网设备陈旧。近年印度经济增长迅速,但电力投资明显跟不上,而且以“印度式排外”限制外资进入,印度总理虽宣布五年内将投资4000亿美元于电力设备,但陈旧的电力设备已等不及。

India blackout touch because of the power grid is the summer with the influx,The background is a serious shortage of power infrastructure。India annual generation 187 million kilowatts,Less than 20% of China,Grid equipment old。In recent years, India's economy is growing rapidly,But power investment obviously can't keep up,And, in“India type xenophobic”Limit foreign capital to enter,Though India's prime minister announced five years will invest 400 billion dollars in the power equipment,But old electric power equipment already can't wait。



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