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商品金融化是一把双刃剑--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-30
当美国大豆、豆粕、玉米等价格纷纷跨越历史高点的时候,世界性粮食危机随之凸显,对于此次的粮食危机的形成原因,不管怎么评论,归纳起来主要有三个要点:1、自然灾害造成减产;2、生物燃料生产进一步加剧粮食紧缺;3、大宗农产品金融化放大了杠杆,使粮食投机问题变得更为严重。虽然第一种意见是客观的事实,但是在欧美国家中,越来越多的评论人士认为粮食金融化问题促成了高度投机,加速了世界性的粮食危机,这是世界粮食危机形成的关键原因。
When American soybean、Soybean meal、Corn prices have across history when high,World food crisis then highlight,For the cause of formation of the food crisis,No matter how comments,To sum up the main three points:1、Natural disaster reduction;2、Biofuel production further aggravate food shortage;3、Agricultural commodities JinRongHua magnifies the lever,Make food speculative problem becomes more serious。Although the first opinion is an objective fact,But in the American home,More and more critics think food JinRongHua problems contributed to highly speculative,Accelerating the global food crisis,This is the world food crisis formation of the key reasons。
包括欧洲地球之友在内的25个游说团体正在敦促欧洲政府采取措施,他们希望欧洲能够借今年秋天的金融工具市场法规审查之机,限制粮食和其他大宗商品衍生品市场的投机活动。虽然这些游说团体说到了关键问题,但是他们显然无法阻止大宗农产品金融化的过程,也难以阻止大宗农产品高度投机的问题,因为在大宗农产品金融化的背后,拥有着巨大的利益。
Including Europe friends of the earth, 25 lobbies are urged European governments take measures,They hope to Europe can borrow this autumn's market in financial instruments and regulations review of the machine,Restrictions on food and other commodities derivatives market speculation。Although these lobby said to the key problems,But they obviously can't stop bulk agricultural products JinRongHua process,Also difficult to prevent bulk agricultural products highly speculative problem,Because in JinRongHua agricultural commodities behind,Have a great interest。
在华尔街主导下的全球性商品金融化过程中,不断引发着各种危机,例如经济危机、粮食危机、能源危机等,可是金融化的脚步却从来没有停止过,即使美国曾立法对期货和掉期产品实施更严格的仓位限制,但在华尔街等的游说下,这些法案大都成为了一纸空文,所以商品金融化的问题已经成为了一把双刃剑,一面是对经济的服务,一面是对经济的损害。而在2008年以后,我们所看到的商品金融化过程更多的是对全球经济的伤害,过高的杆杠使这个世界的投机泛滥,同时也是促成纸币滥发的一个重要原因,许多国家在利益的诱导下,不断利用金融化的过程试图争夺商品定价权,结果造成了全球商品价格动荡不安,动荡的价格体系就必然带来动荡的经济周期,而更多的时候我们看到这场竞争的胜利者是华尔街,所以在这次粮食危机中,回头思考中国的商品金融化过程时,不得不对中国的一系列金融化问题所留下的隐患表示忧心。仅从粮食危机上而言,中国是美国最大的粮食进口国之一,却用高价买进了转基因大豆等过去最便宜且供不应求的粮食品种,由于中国所拥有的美国债权换回的是高价低质,不仅在利益交换上极不公平,更为重要的是还造成国内一系列类似大豆问题的案例,中国在这场金融化过程中将很多商品价格定价权拱手让人,并造成国内一些完整的产业链纷纷被外资吞噬,损失可谓难以估量。
On Wall Street which is dominated by global commodity JinRongHua process,Are causing all kinds of crisis,For example, the economic crisis、Food crisis、Energy crisis,But JinRongHua steps but never stopped,Even if the United States have legislation on futures and swap products more strict implementation of the position limit,But on Wall Street, the lobby,These act mostly became the word on old parchment,So the JinRongHua problem has become a double-edged sword,One is to economic service,One side is the economic damage。In 2008 years later,What we see commodity JinRongHua process more to the global economic damage,High leverage make this world of speculation flood,Are the same that underlie the notes spam is an important reason,Many countries in the interests of the induction,Using the process of JinRongHua constantly trying to compete for commodity pricing,The result is that the global commodity prices unrest,The price system of unrest will inevitably bring turbulent economic cycle,And most of the time we see the competition winner is Wall Street,So in the food crisis,Look back to think about Chinese goods JinRongHua process,Have to a series of problems in China JinRongHua left by the hidden trouble says anxiety。Only from the food crisis for the,China is the largest food importers,But with the high price to buy the transgenic soybean and the past the cheapest and tight grain varieties,As China have the United States claims in return is high inferior,Not only in the interest of the unfair exchange,More important is also caused a series of similar domestic soybean problem cases,China in the JinRongHua process will be a lot of commodity prices pricing hand over with a bow,And cause some domestic complete industry chain are engulfed by foreign capital,Loss is difficult to measure。
商品金融化就像一个管道,它可以定向引导资金向已金融化的商品流动,一旦杠杆不断被放大,它的投机性也就越来越高,现在的粮食问题就是如此。由于中国、印度、巴西等发展中大国的崛起,人民的生活水平越来越高,粮食消费量也不断增加,以及日本等国家大量进口粮食,再加上全球性货币的泛滥,这使世界粮食价格难以下行,一旦出现自然灾害、病虫害和产量减少的情况,一些国际对冲基金和炒家就会应声而动,利用金融杠杆借机谋取暴利,造成粮食价格飙涨。然而在这场暴利盛宴的背后,没有人会关心粮食危机给非洲等贫穷国家带来的灾难,暴利和道德之间常常都是脱钩的,有的时候甚至与罪恶走得更近,但是人类却难以阻止它的步伐,所以商品杠杆化的另一个体现就是人类贪婪的高杠杆化。
Commodity JinRongHua is like a pipe,It can directional direct funds to already JinRongHua commodity flow,Once the lever constantly be amplified,Its speculative also more and more high,Now the food problem is so。Because of China's、India、Brazil the rise of developing country,The living standard of the people more and more high,Food consumption increases constantly too,And Japan and other countries import a lot of food,Plus global currency flood,This makes the world food price is down,Once appear natural disasters、Plant diseases and insect pests and reduce the production of,Some international hedge funds and ChaoGu will answer and dynamic,Use of financial leverage the opportunity to seek profits,Cause food prices rocketing。However, in the profits behind feast,No one would care about the food crisis to Africa and other poor countries bring disaster,Profits and moral between often are decoupled,Sometimes even and evil get closer,But the human but difficult to stop the pace of it,So the leveraged another reflect human greed is high leveraged。
欧美、日本等发达国家早已在粮食问题上布局全球,欧美一些大国不仅自身非常注重粮食生产,同时还抢先在巴西、东欧等国家租赁了大量的土地种植粮食,以掌控世界粮食价格,虽然中国等发展中国家近些年来也积极开辟海外农产品生产基地,但与欧美发达国家相比,在开发时间、开发面积、开发技术、国际关系等方面都有较大的差距,所以在大宗农产品商业化之后,中国面临的粮食安全问题更加复杂化,中国当前出现的一系列问题足以警戒我们在金融化的路上要如履薄冰,如果只讲金融化而不顾安全化,那么中国的金融化过程将会是一个向西方发达国家建设输送利益管道的过程,将是一个悲剧的过程。
Europe and the United States、Japan and other developed countries have already with food global layout,Europe and the United States some power not only their own pay much attention to food production,At the same time also beat in Brazil、Eastern Europe and other countries lease a large amount of land to grow food,To control the world food prices,Although China and other developing countries in recent years has also been actively open up overseas agricultural production base,But compared with the developed countries in Europe and America,In the development of time、Development area、Development technology、International relations, has a big gap,So in agricultural commodities after commercialization,China faces the problem of grain security more complicated,China's current to a series of problems for our JinRongHua in the way on thin ice,If only speak JinRongHua regardless secure,So China's JinRongHua process will be a western developed countries to the construction process of pipeline conveying interests,Will be a tragedy process。
四年当中,世界出现了两次粮食危机,其间伴随着中国大豆产业链几近倾覆的过程,而在大豆产业链的身后还有养殖等系列产业,这足以引起中国的高度重视和思考。应该清醒地看到商品金融化是双刃剑,当刀刃总是朝向自己面门的时候,我们的金融改革之路就要有高度的警惕性。诚然,金融化是不可或缺的过程,而且美国金融化的过程中,华尔街渐渐掌控了世界金融的核心,并获得了巨大的利益,但是世界金融中心不是一蹴而就的,要有很长的路要走,中国的金融化过程还任重道远,在今天动荡不安的世界经济体系中更要谨慎,只有这样才能协调好实体经济与金融化的关系,才能更好地发展中国经济。(作者为资深财经媒体人)
Four years,The world appeared two times the food crisis,Meanwhile along with China's soybean industry chain nearly upsetting process,And in the soybean industry chain behind and breeding, etc. Series of industry,It is enough to cause the great attention and thinking。Should see clearly that the goods JinRongHua is a two-edged sword,When the blade is always on himself when face immediately,Our financial reform road will have a high degree of vigilance。admittedly,JinRongHua is an indispensable process,And the United States in the process of JinRongHua,Wall Street is the core of the financial control of the world,And to make a great interests,But the world financial center is not achieved overnight,Want to have a long way to go,China's JinRongHua process also shoulder heavy responsibilities,In today's turbulent world economic system more careful,The only way to coordinate the relationship between the entity economy and JinRongHua,To better the development of China's economy。(The author is senior financial media people)
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