中国房地产报记者 张晓赫 北京报道

China real estate news reporter ZhangXiaoHe reports from Beijing

　　已经进入“十二五”第二年，随着《金融业发展和改革“十二五”规划》（以下简称《规划》）的出台，国内未来3年里的货币政策框架与金融改革方向的蓝图也正在逐渐清晰。

Has entered into"1025"The second year,with[The financial industry development and reform"1025"planning](Hereinafter referred to as[planning])Come on stage,Over the next three years domestic monetary policy framework and financial reform direction of the blueprint is also gradually clear.

　　9月17日，一行三会（央行、证监会、银监会、保监会）正式颁布的《规划》显示，政策层将完善金融调控、优化组织体系、建设金融市场、深化金融改革、扩大对外开放、维护金融稳定、加强基础设施等7个方面，明确列为“十二五”时期金融业发展和改革的重点任务。

On September 17,A line of three will(The central bank/CSRC/The CBRC/circ)Formally promulgated[planning]display,Policy layer will improve financial control/Optimization organization system/Construction financial markets/To deepen financial reform/Expand opening to the outside world/Maintaining the stability of financial/Strengthen infrastructure from 7 aspects,Clear as"1025"Period financial industry development and reform of the key tasks.

　　“《规划》中的很多指引已经在现实中操作，其中比较值得关注的还是未来货币政策中，防通胀的再次居首，以及对未来直接融资的引导。”申银万国行业分析师倪军认为，随着货币政策对资产价格的逐渐重视，从操作的可行性上看，房地产价格变动或将纳入货币政策目标范畴，对房地产市场中长期影响巨大。

"[planning]Many of the guide has in reality operation,The comparison is a concern or monetary policy in the future,Against inflation to lead again,And in the future the guidance of direct financing."ShenYin universal industry analysts NiJun think,With monetary policy on asset prices attention gradually,From the feasibility of operation to watch,Real estate price change or will put into the monetary policy target category,On the real estate market long-term enormous influence.

　　楼市价格或成关注目标 The property market price or into focus on goal

　　防通胀、维持价格稳定成为了“十二五”期间主要金融政策的头等大事。这一醒目的货币政策目标定位，也将一直游离在CPI统计之外的房地产价格重新拉回政策视野。

Against inflation/The maintenance of price stability became"1025"During major financial policy priority.This eye-catching monetary policy target location,Will also have been free in the CPI statistics outside of the real estate prices back to policy vision.

　　在货币政策目标体系中，《规划》明确表示要“更加突出价格稳定目标，关注更广泛意义的整体价格水平稳定”。

In the monetary policy target system,[planning]Made it clear to"More outstanding price stability target,Focus on broader meaning of the overall price level stability".

　　对于该描述，兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家鲁政委认为，这一界定至少显示，短期内，未来价格稳定的重要性将比增长更重要。

For the description,Societe generale(601166,guba)Chief economist lu zhengwei think,This definition at least show,In the short term,The importance of future price stability will be more important than growth.

　　倪军则进一步认为，这预示着通胀之外，资产价格，特别是房地产价格将成为央行的重要政策目标。“市场上关于房地产价格纳入CPI统计的呼声一直都很强烈，近来货币政策思路也发生了一些变化，虽然经济还在下行，但在房地产价格和通胀率压力加大时，央行已经在选择关注后者。”倪军称。

NiJun is further think,It indicates the outside inflation,Asset prices,Especially the real estate prices will become the central bank's important policy goals."Market on real estate prices into the CPI statistics call has been very strong,The recent monetary policy ideas also has undergone some changes,Although the economy is still in descending,But in real estate prices and inflation pressure when increase,The central bank has been in choose to focus on the latter."NiJun says.

　　这也可以从部分央行人士发言中得到体现，此前，央行货币政策司司长张晓慧就表示，为了提高货币政策的前瞻性，资产和初级产品价格、特别是房地产价格应该纳入货币政策的关注视野。

This can also from the part of the central bankers were reflected in the speech,after,The central bank's monetary policy department priests ZhangXiaoHui said,In order to improve the monetary policy prospective,Assets and primary product price/Especially the real estate prices should be integrated into monetary policy attention vision.

　　“随着通胀压力的再次温和回升，货币政策对房地产价格波动的敏感性也越来越明显，现在，一行三会主动提及扩大货币政策对物价水平的关注目标，所以很大的可能还是会增加对楼市价格的参考权重。”对于这一变化，一位股份制银行人士分析，尽管当前的通胀环境较为温和，但四季度可预期的通胀压力正在增加。

"With inflation pressure mild rebound again,Monetary policy on real estate price fluctuation sensitivity is becoming more and more obvious,now,A line of three will be active to expand the monetary policy on the price level focus on goal,So a lot of still may increase the housing price reference weight."For the change,A joint-stock bank analysts,Although the current inflation environment moderate,But the fourth quarter of the expected inflation pressure is increasing.

　　银河证券首席经济学家左晓蕾更进一步认为，美联储QE3的执行，将会进一步增加中国的输入性通胀压力。“今年可能压力不明显，但明年就要小心了。”她认为，由于QE3的开放性，“十二五”期间，新兴市场将持续受到该政策的通胀压力，政策对房地产价格的敏感性也会增加。

Galaxy securities chief economist ZuoXiaoLei further think,The fed QE3 execution,China will further increase the input sex inflationary pressure."This year may pressure is not obvious,But the next year to be careful."She thinks,Due to the openness of the QE3,"1025"period,Emerging markets will continue to by the policy of inflation pressure,Policy on real estate price sensitivity will also increase.

　　债市发展上位 Bond market development superior

　　发展直接融资成为了《规划》中另一个热议点，这其中，债市更是被市场解读为政策的最大受益者。作为“十二五”期间为数不多的量化目标，《规划》明确，到“十二五”期末，非金融企业直接融资占社会融资规模比重提高至15%以上。

Development become the direct financing[planning]Another hot discussion point,the,The bond market is the market interpreted as the biggest beneficiaries of policies.as"1025"During a few quantitative target,[planning]clear,to"1025"The final,Non-financial enterprises of our country direct financing accounted for the proportion of social financing scale increased to more than 15%.

　　“假如直接融资过度集中于股票，那么，这个额度对于已经负重过度的A股市场来说，仍然是一个过高目标。”一位券商分析人士认为，相对于股市目前的压力，未来提高直接融资占比的重点，应放在债券市场。

"If excessive concentration of direct financing in stock,so,This line to have weight excessive a-share market for,Is still a high target."A securities analysts believe that,Relative to the stock market the present pressure,To improve the future of direct financing than key,Should be put in the bond market.

　　“《规划》也有这方面的意思。”该研究人士认为，监管部门对债市发展的支持，可以从2012年以来的发展规模得到体现。央行最新统计，8月份企业债券净融资2584亿元，占社会融资总量比重达到21%。

"[planning]Also has the meaning."The study of them think,The supervision department of the support of the bond market development,Since 2012 can be reflected the developing scale.The central bank latest statistics,August 258.4 billion yuan net enterprise bond financing,The total amount of social financing proportion reaches 21%.

　　在券商等金融机构迎来利好的同时，银行传统业务布局迎来的却是盈利与转型挑战。受金融改革规划发布的利空打击，以传统间接融资为主营利润的银行股普遭资金出逃。

In the securities trader, and other financial institutions have good at the same time,Bank of traditional business layout in earnings and transformation is the challenge.By financial reform plan release the bad blow,In a traditional indirect financing for the main profit bank shares by general funds run away.

　　“实际上，现在银行也更愿意提供直接融资服务，投行部、金融部、私人银行部，很多部门都有直接融资的业务。”一位银行人士称，为了追求多头利润与业务布局，自己所在银行对部分大客户已开始发展综合金融服务，“不会是单纯的大额信贷，也包含一部分表外的融资服务”。

"In fact,Now Banks are more willing to provide direct financing service,Investment banking department/banking/K, private,Many departments have direct financing business."A bank officials said,In order to pursue the long profit and business layout,Their own Banks to part of the big customer already started to develop comprehensive financial services,"Is not simply the large amount of credit,Also includes part of the off-balance sheet financing service".

　　不过，该人士并不愿意在混业趋势中将银行系统孤立。“银行间市场、资本市场以及场外市场应该是互利互补的，现在证监会、国家发改委等都在积极地出台一些政策，将来市场之间的联动性增强也会是趋势。”

but,This personage is not willing to in the mixed trend will bank system isolated."Interbank market/Capital market and otc market should be complementary and mutual benefit,Now the CSRC/The national development and reform commission, etc are actively introduced some policies,The future market LianDongXing between enhancement will also is a trend."

　　与市场混业经营趋势形成鲜明对比的是，《规划》中并未涉及“分业监管体系是否能适应混业发展”这类更加本质的命题。对此，前述银行人士称，“政策层面并不想过快地改变监管现状，都是摸着石头过河。现在首要还是先把市场做大。”

And the market mixes industry the management trend contrast,[planning]Was not included in the"The dividing of the regulatory system would adapt to mixed development"This kind of more essence proposition.this,The bankers said,"The policy level and don't want to rapid changes supervising actuality,Are crossing the river by groping the stone.Now first or the market first big."