人们参与证券市场的行为有两种，即投资与投机。正确区分投资与投机，具有非常重要的意义。“现代证券分析之父”本杰明·格雷厄姆高度重视区分投资与投机，其理论贯穿了这种区分，本文根据学习体会，勾勒出投资与投机的主要区别。

People participate in the stock market has two kinds of behavior,That investment and speculative.Distinguish between investment and speculation,Has a very important significance."The father of modern securities analysis"Benjamin graham attaches great importance to distinguish between investment and speculation,Its theory through the distinguish,According to the learning experience,Outline the major difference between investment and speculation.

　　投资是寻找并分享价值，投机是预判并下注于价格变动

Investment is to find and share value,Speculation is anticipation and bet in price change

　　格雷厄姆给出的投资与投机的定义是：“投资是指根据详尽的分析，本金安全和满意回报有保证的操作。不符合这一标准的操作就是投机。”同时定义了投资与投机，强调了两者存在本质区别。

Graham given investment and speculation is defined:"Investment refers to according to the detailed analysis,The principal safety and satisfaction guaranteed return of the operation.Does not conform to the standard operating is speculative."At the same time defines the investment and speculative,Emphasizes the essential difference between both exist.

　　这个投资定义的核心是“安全性”。不符合投资标准的投机，必然缺乏“安全性”。“安全边际”思想是格雷厄姆投资理论的中心思想。安全边际主要指证券的市场价格低于其内在价值的差额。他提出：“我们建议用安全边际这一概念为标准来区分投资业务和投机业务。”

This investment is the key of the definition"safety".Do not conform to the standards of speculative investment,Inevitable lack of"safety"."Margin of safety"Thought is graham investment theory of central idea.Margin of safety is mainly refers to the stock market price is lower than the intrinsic value of the balance.He put forward:"We propose to use margin of safety this concept as a standard to distinguish between business investment and speculative business."

　　证券的内在价值是更本质的东西，市场价格主要起“比较”作用，因此投资中“安全性”的真正来源是“价值”，投资的真正目标是“价值”。“价值投资”一词，直观地表达了这种含义。投资的“本金安全和满意回报”，是分享价值的结果。为了分享价值，先要寻找、发现价值，即进行“详尽的分析”。所以，投资是寻找并分享价值。

The intrinsic value of the stock is more essential thing,The main market price"comparison"role,Therefore investment"safety"The real source of the is"value",The real goal is to invest"value"."Value investment"A word,Directly express the meaning.investment"The principal safety and satisfactory returns",Is to share the results of value.In order to share value,First to find/Find value,the"Detailed analysis of".so,Investment is to find and share value.

　　投机，是判断市场走势并采取相应行动，即看涨时做多，看跌时做空，实质上是与持相反观点并行动的人“对赌”。所以，投机是预判并下注于价格变动。

speculation,Judgment is the market trends, and take appropriate action,That is rising to do more,Put to empty,In essence is with opposing views and action"spread-betting".so,Speculation is anticipation and bet in price change.

　　投资的策略是估值，投机的策略是预测 Investment strategy is valuation,Speculative strategy is forecast

　　投资的策略是证券估值，即评估证券的内在价值与安全边际，并据此行动。投机的策略是市场预测，即推测市场走向，并据此行动。格雷厄姆对此作了清晰的描述：“我们所说的择时，是指努力去预知股市的行为——认为未来走势是上升时，购买或持有股票；认为未来走势是下降时，出售或停止购买股票。我们所说的估价是指尽力做到：股票报价低于其公允价值时买入，高于其公允价值时卖出。另外一种要求不是太高的估价方式是，确保自己购买股票的价格不会太高……我们确信，无论采用哪一种估价方法，聪明的投资者都能得到满意的结果。我们同样确信，如果投资者以预测为基础强调择时交易，那么他最终将成为一个投机者，并面对投机带来的财务结果。”

Investment strategy is stock valuation,That is the intrinsic value of evaluation securities and margin of safety,Act accordingly.Speculative strategy is market forecast,That is the market direction,Act accordingly.Graham it clear description:"What we call an election,Refers to try to predict the behavior of the stock market, that the future trend is rising,Buy or hold stock;That the future trend is fall,Sell or stop buying stock.What we call valuation refers to try our best to do it:The stock price is less than the fair value when buying,Higher than the fair value of the sale.Another requirement is not too high valuation method is,Make sure you buy the price of the stock will not be too high...We are sure that,No matter use what kind of valuation methods,Smart investors can obtain satisfactory results.We also sure,If investors choose to predict basis emphasis on the transaction,Then he will eventually become a speculator,And in the face of speculative bring financial results."

　　把估值与预测结合起来是否更合理？格雷厄姆的答案是否定的，因为投资者与投机者存在根本分歧：“投机者的一个根本特征就是：他之所以购买股票，是因为他觉得该股票要上涨了，而不是认为股票便宜；反之亦然。所以投机者与证券分析家的观点就有根本性的分歧。”

The evaluation and prediction is more reasonable combination?Graham answer is negative,For investors and speculators exists fundamental differences:"Speculators a fundamental feature is:He went to buy the stock,Because he felt the stock are going up,Not think a stock cheap;And vice versa.So speculators and securities analysts view have fundamental differences."

　　投资运用基本分析法，投机运用市场分析法 Investment using basic analysis method,Speculation the market analysis

　　投资运用基本分析法，分析证券的投资价值，旨在“选股”。投机运用市场分析法，预测市场价格走势，旨在“择时”（交易）。

Investment using basic analysis method,Analysis of securities investment value,Aims to"Stock selection".Speculation the market analysis,Predict the market price trend,Aims to"timing"(trading).

　　格雷厄姆对证券分析法（即基本分析）展开了系统论述，也对市场分析法提出批评。他指出：“有两种不同的市场分析方法：一种是纯粹从股票市场的历史表现中挖掘材料进行预测；另一种则是考虑各种经济因素，如总体和特定的商业环境、货币利率、政治前景等。”第一种是技术分析法，他指出，其逻辑基础——根据股市价格史的一些特征推断市场未来走向，类似于依据赛马(历史战绩)图表预测赛马结果——是不完善的；其因为股市上涨而买进、因为股市下跌而卖出的主要原则违背了正常的商业原则，十分荒谬。第二种是通过预测整体经济前景来预测市场走向的方法，如根据资金利率、货运量等指标的变化来预测市场变化，他指出，想当然地认为过去偶然发生过几次的时滞或巧合，会在将来同样地发生——不能令人信服，因此也是一种伪科学。

Graham to securities analysis(Namely basic analysis)The paper on the system,Also criticized the market analysis.He pointed out that:"There are two kinds of different market analysis method:One is pure from the stock market performance history of mining material forecast;Another is to consider all kinds of economic factors,Such as the general and specific business environment/Currency rate/Political prospects of."The first is a technical analysis,He pointed out that,Its logical foundation, according to the history of stock prices of some of the characteristics that the market future direction,According to the similar to horse racing(History record)Chart prediction racing results - is not perfect;Because the market and buy/Because the market fell and the main principle to sell to the normal business principles,ridiculous.The second is through the whole economic outlook forecast to predict the market's direction method,If according to funds rate/Such as the change of freight volume indicators to predict the market change,He pointed out that,Take it for granted that the accident happened a few times of delay or coincidence,In the future also happen - not convincing,So is also a kind of pseudoscience.

　　当今一种流行观念，是试图把基本分析与市场分析，即“选股”与“择时”结合起来，体现在“从基本面看……从技术面看……”这一流行分析模式，以及“价值+趋势”之类的操作方法。格雷厄姆早已指出这种“结合”根本不能成立：“任何将这两者结合起来的努力从根本上说都是不合逻辑和令人困惑的……如果把交易操作引入投资实践，投资资本收益的稳定性将被破坏，而且必然会使投资者的兴趣转移到投机方面。”

Today's a popular idea,Is trying to put the basic analysis and market analysis,namely"Stock selection"and"timing"combined,Reflected in"From the fundamentals look at...From the technical surface look at..."This popular analysis model,and"Value + trend"The operation method and so on.Graham had pointed out that this"Combined with"Can't established:"Any combination of the two efforts fundamentally is illogical and confusing...If the trading operations into investment practice,The stability of investment capital gains will be destroyed,And will make investor interest transfer to speculative aspects."

　　投资一般是长期持有，投机一般是频繁交易 Investment is generally held for a long time,Speculation is generally frequent trading

　　投资主要是买入并持有被市场低估的证券，等待价格向价值回归，这一回归的过程通常是漫长的，需要耐心等待；分享企业创造的新价值，同样需要耐心等待。投资就像种庄稼，要耐心等待作物成长。

Investment is mainly buy and hold by market undervalued securities,Waiting for prices to return value,The regression process is usually long,Need patience to wait for;Share enterprise to create new value,Also need the patience to wait.Investment is like kind of crops,To have the patience to wait for crop growth.

　　投机活动主要通过交易来进行，市场预测使用的技术分析会频频发出买卖“信号”，经济前景预测会不断带来各种“利好”、“利空”，驱使人们行动。投机就像冲浪，要随波逐流忙不停。

Speculative activity mainly through the transaction to,Market forecast technology used frequently appearing a sale"signal",Economic outlook forecast will continue to bring all kinds of"bullish"/"bad",Drives people to action.Speculation is like surfing,To keep the busy.

　　格雷厄姆概括道：“市场分析家的主要法则就是减少损失和保障利润（通过在下跌初期卖出），这导致市场交易活跃……而以证券分析为基础的操作通常属于投资类型，不会带来活跃的交易。”

Graham summary way:"Market analysts main rule is to reduce loss and guarantee profits(In the early fall to sell),This leads to market transaction active...But by securities analysis as the foundation of the operation is usually belong to the type of investment,Will not bring active trading."

　　投资总体上有良好回报，投机总体上要亏损 Investment in general have good returns,Speculation on the whole to loss

　　投资与价值联姻，会有良好结果。投机是零和博弈，扣除交易成本后是负和游戏，多数人必输。长期结果必然是投资者整体盈利，投机者整体亏损。格雷厄姆说明，“股市投机者整体上几乎都要亏钱”，“亏损的投机者要比获利的投机者多几乎是一个数学定律”。

Investment and value of marriage,There will be a good result.Speculation is a zero-sum game,After deduction of the transaction cost is negative and games,Most people will lose.Long term investors will result in overall profit,Speculators overall losses.Graham that,"The stock market speculators, on the whole, almost lost money","Loss of speculators to gain more than speculators is almost a mathematical law".

　　投机并不违法，但投机的风险太大，必须要警醒。格雷厄姆告诫世人：“如果你想投机的话，请睁大自己的双眼，知道最终有可能亏本。”当然，自己选择，自己负责。

Speculation is not illegal,But speculative risk is too big,Must be vigilant.Graham told the world:"If you want to speculative word,Please with their own eyes,Know that in the end may lose money."Of course,choose,Himself responsible for.

　　（作者为投资者）

(The author for investors)