鱼逐水而游，资本亦如此。

Fish swim by water and,Capital also so.

　　韩同利是交银国际全球债券投资总监兼固定收益主管，1月8日，他告诉记者，从去年9月起，他逐步开始为其管理的信用类债券资产加仓。

Korea is with the silver hand in international global bond investment director and fixed income competent,On January 8,,He told reporters,From last September,He gradually began to its management credit bonds assets and warehouse.

　　与此同时，为维持港元汇率稳定，防止银行体系流动性过剩，香港金融管理局正做着“左手抛港币，右手回收港币”的“奇怪”举动。

meanwhile,In order to maintain Hong Kong dollar exchange rate stability,To prevent the banking system liquidity,Hong Kong monetary authority is doing"Left hand into Hong Kong dollars,Hk right hand recovery"of"strange"move.

　　QE3推出后，热钱不断流入，香港资本市场迎来了“小阳春”，但也迫使金管局为维持港元汇率与美元挂钩从10月20日以来24次入市注资港元。此后，由于银行体系流动资金充裕，为防止通货膨胀，金管局又开始增发票据，吸收银行体系中的一部分港币资金。

QE3 after launch,Hot money inflows continuously,Hong Kong capital market ushered in"Indian summer",But also forced the hkma to maintain Hong Kong dollar exchange rate with the dollar from October 24 times, and since the market capital injection Hong Kong dollar.Since then,Due to the banking system liquidity abundant,To prevent inflation,The hkma also began to additional notes,Absorb part of the banking system of hk funds.

　　韩同利说，除了受资金流动性充裕的因素影响，境外体系流入的热钱也在“赌”港币会升值。

Korea said with the,In addition to be liquidity abundant factors,Outside the system of hot money inflows in"bet"Hk will rise.

　　“赌”港币升值？

"bet"Appreciation of hk $?

　　1月7日，金管局发布公告，称将于1月15日、 22日及29日举行的投标中增发总值210亿港元的外汇基金票据，以应付由于银行体系流动资金充裕，对该等票据需求增加的情况。

On January 7th,The hkma issued,Say on January 15,/ 22 and 29, in a bid for additional value of hk $21 billion foreign exchange fund paper,To cope with the banking system due to the ample liquidity,The bill needs to increase situation.

　　增发外汇基金票据，将会以增加供应3个月及6个月期票据的方式来进行，上述票据价值分别为150亿港元和60亿港元。

Additional exchange fund paper,Will be to increase supply 3 months and 6 months period bill means to,The above bill value are hk $15 billion and hk $6 billion.

　　因热钱持续流入，截至1月9日收市，香港银行体系的结余达2558.28亿港元，而在10月初时该数字仅为1486.49亿港元。“预期总结余将分别于1月16日、23日及30日各减少约70亿港元。”金管局方面负责人透露。也就是说，在市场没有更多热钱进来的情况下，上述外汇票据发行完毕后，本月底香港银行体系总结余可降至2348.28亿港元。

Because of the hot money inflows continued,By January 9, closing,Hong Kong bank balance system of hk $255.828 billion,And in early October, the figure was only hk $148.649 billion."Expected more than summary will be conducted on January 16,/23 and 30 each reduce about hk $7 billion."The hkma chief discloses aspects.that,In the market no more hot money in case,The note issuance of foreign exchange after completion,The end of the month Hong Kong banking system can fall more than summary to hk $234.828 billion.

　　两年半前，金管局也曾增发票据，回收市场过剩港币。

Two and a half years ago,The hkma also have additional notes,Recovery of hk market surplus.

　　2008年至2010年，在QE1推出后，金管局曾多次向市场注资港元，并随后多次增发外汇基金票据，吸纳市场过多资金。

From 2008 to 2010,In the introduction of QE1,The hkma has repeatedly to the markets (to the Hong Kong dollar,And then many shares exchange fund paper,Too much money in the market.

　　“外汇票据对吸收热钱的作用还是有限的。其利率一般极低，国际热钱可能不会因为外汇票据而放弃收益率远远大于此的投机活动。”韩同利认为，此举也许“治标不治本”。

"Exchange note to absorb the role of hot money is limited.The interest rate generally very low,International hot money may not because foreign bill and give up rate of return than the speculation."That's the same,This may"Take temporary solution not effect a permanent cure".

　　这也是热钱在“赌”港币会升值的原因。他解释道，经济学有个“不稳定三角（Impossible Trinity）”理论，即资本自由流动、固定汇率和独立的货币政策，三个条件不可同时具备。香港选择放弃“独立货币政策”，以保全其他两大条件。这意味着，香港货币政策需根据美国货币政策而改变。

This is hot money in"bet"The reason of hk will rise.He explained,Economics has a"Unstable triangle(Impossible Trinity)"theory,That is the free flow of capital/Fixed exchange rate and independent monetary policy,Three conditions do not have both.Hong Kong choose to give up"Independent monetary policy",In order to save the other two conditions.This means that,Hong Kong monetary policy should be based on U.S. monetary policy and change.

　　这便使得，2008年后，由于中国经济转型等因素，香港与内地经济相关度不断增高。香港经济追随内地，但香港货币政策却紧跟美国。“这会带来两个后果：通货膨胀和资产泡沫。这就给专门寻找和攻击经济系统脆弱点的金融大鳄带来了可乘之机。”

This allows the,2008 years later,Because of China's economic transformation factors,Hong Kong and the mainland economy increasing degree of correlation.Hong Kong's economy to follow the mainland,But Hong Kong monetary policy but with the United States."This will bring two consequences:Inflation and asset bubbles.This will give special looking for and against economic system vulnerabilities financial big alligator brought away."

　　因此，从长远来看，他认为，香港可能会选择改革“固定盯住美元”为“爬行盯住”或者新加坡模式，而获得一部分的“货币政策自主权”。此时，港币汇率会有上升空间。

so,In the long run,He thinks,Hong Kong may choose to reform"Fixed pegged to the dollar"for"Crawl gaze at"Or the Singapore model,And get the part"Monetary policy autonomy".At this time,Hk dollar will have room to rise.

　　墙内梅花，只有墙外香

Wall plum blossom,Only wall sweet

　　对于香港境内体系资金操作策略，随着热钱流入香港并进入股市，不少香港基金经理透露，会选择在此时为旗下的股票基金建仓。由于港币债券市场规模较小，股市依然是吸收热钱涌入的主力。

Domestic system for Hong Kong capital operation strategy,Along with the hot money flows into the Hong Kong and into the stock market,Many Hong Kong fund manager said,Will choose at this time for its stock fund open a position.Due to the smaller hk bond market,The stock market is still the main absorption of hot money inflow.

　　金管局最近发布的一份新闻稿认为，流入香港的资金主要有两个动力来源，投资于股市，及企业发行外币债券换回港币使用。港交所数据亦显示，今年9月起，恒生指数开始以陡峭曲线上扬，从19145点升至1月8日收市时的23112点，升幅为20%。

The hkma recently issued a press release that,Hong Kong's capital inflows have two main power source,Investment in the stock market,And foreign currency bonds issued by companies to use in hk.The data also show in Hong Kong,September this year,The hang seng index began to rise steep curve,From the point of 19145 to January 8, when closing the 23112 points,Representing an increase of 20%.

　　“人保集团（1399.HK）上市后，一直有对冲基金的热钱在炒高其股价，并在最近逐渐沽出。”一位交易员告诉记者，他的交易策略便是跟随这些对冲基金的买卖轨迹进行交易。

"Insurer group(1399. HK)Listed after,Hedge funds have been the hot money in Fried high the price of the stock,And in recent gradually write a."A trader told reporters,His trading strategy is to follow the hedge fund business track transactions.

　　即便股市畅旺，表面看起来，香港散户投资者的投资取向却与境外资本大鳄背道而驰。

Even if the stock market buoyant,Surface looks,Hong Kong retail investors investment orientation but with foreign capital big alligator run in the opposite direction.

　　1月8日，香港投资基金公会公布了2012年香港基金销售数据。数据显示，2012年前11个月基金销售总额超越了2007年的历史高位，至514亿美元。债券基金销售额达348亿美元。以净额计，债券基金期内吸纳了130亿美元的净流入。同时，股票基金录得96亿美元销售额，较2011年下跌39%。

On January 8,,Hong Kong investment fund association released its 2012 Hong Kong fund sales data.Data display,2012 years ago 11 months of fund sales amount beyond the 2007 years of history high,To $51.4 billion.Bond fund sales of $34.8 billion.Net to plan,During the period of bond funds in the net inflow of $13 billion.At the same time,Stock fund record sales of $9.6 billion,A 2011 fell 39%.

　　境外热钱流入股市，境内体系散户资金却让股市坐了“冷板凳”。对此，韩同利表示，由于香港债市较小，且投资周期长，一般境外对冲基金会流入股市。散户则会选择风险系数较低、投资周期较长的产品。“债券基金的销售中，32.7%来自高收益债券，31.1%来自环球新兴市场债券，而高收益债券的需求方主要是持有内地高净值客户资金的私人银行。”

Foreign hot money into the stock market,Domestic system retail funds but let on the stock market"bench".this,Korea said with the,Because Hong Kong is the bond market,And investment cycle is long,General foreign hedge funds into the stock market.Retail investors will choose risk coefficient is low/Investment cycle long products."Bond fund sales,32.7% from high-yield bonds,31.1% from the emerging market bond,High yield bonds and home-textile mainly is holding the mainland high net worth clients fund private bank."

　　“这些高净值客户对于资产回报率有较高要求，过去一年里，高收益债券总回报达到15%，而风险相对较低的新兴市场硬通货债券的总回报更高达18.5%。”他续称，私人银行方还会帮助客户通过融资杠杆增加上述投资收益率。无论是基金方，还是发债企业都认为此时是发债的窗口期。目前，包括交银国际在内的多家资产管理公司都有部署发行有关环球新兴市场或高收益债券基金计划。

"These high net worth clients to return on assets higher demand,Over the past year,High yield bonds total return up to 15%,And a lower risk of emerging market hard currency bonds of total return 18.5% higher."He called for,Private YinHangFang will also help customers through the financing lever increases the rate of return on investment.Whether fund party,Or FaZhai enterprise all think it is FaZhai window period.At present,Including pay silver international, several asset management companies have deployed issue about global emerging markets or high yield bond fund plan.