【名家简介】

[Famous introduction]

　　易宪容，我国著名经济学家、中国社科院金融研究所研究员。

YiXianRong,The famous economist/By the Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the institute of finance.

　　近期以来，无论是财政部，还是央行与银监会等，都对当前国内金融市场的风险暗流汹涌十分警惕，纷纷发文件，希望遏制地方政府融资平台过度发展，希望中国影子银行泛滥有所收敛。据悉，市场估计至2012年末地方政府债务已增长至12万亿，而影子银行也可能达到30万亿元之多！

Since the recent,Whether the ministry of finance,Or the central bank and the banking regulatory commission (CBRC), etc,On the current domestic financial market risk undercurrent surge is very alert,Have the file,Hope to contain the local government financing platform over development,Hope China shadow Banks flood have convergence.It is reported,Market estimates to the end of 2012 local government debt has risen to 12 trillion,And the shadow Banks could reach 30 trillion yuan more than the!

　　从最近央行公布的融资数据来看，2012年银行贷款增加8.2万亿（为历史第二记录），社会融资总额达15.7万亿（历史最高）。从历史数据来看，中国银行(601988,股吧)贷款占整个融资的比重由2002年92%以上10年后下降到52%，国内企业融资多元化及金融脱媒体现象十分明显。同时，随着欧美国家量化宽松政策的加码，国际市场流动性泛滥，市场对人民币升值预期强烈，从而使得国内房企的融资渠道纷纷进入国际市场。比如2012年国内房企在境外债券发行量到91.4亿美元，进入2013年这种趋势还在进一步加剧。可以说，融资渠道的多元化不仅面临着信用杠杆化程度上升，也面临着信用期限转换的金融中介活动增加，从而使得国内影子银行十分泛滥，国内金融体系所面临的风险也在增加。

Recently released from the central bank financing data to see,In 2012, bank loans rose by 8.2 trillion(For the second record history),A total of 15.7 trillion social financing(highest).From the historical data to see,The bank of China(601988,guba)Loans accounted for the proportion of financing by more than 92% in 2002, ten years later dropped to 52%,The domestic enterprise financing diversification and finance to take off the media phenomenon obviously.At the same time,With the European and American countries quantitative easing policy pyramid,The international market liquidity flood,Market for RMB appreciation strongly,In order to make the domestic room of enterprises financing channels have to enter the international market.In 2012, for example, domestic room enterprises in overseas issued bonds to $9.14 billion,In 2013, this trend is still in further intensifies.Can say,The diversification of financing channel is not only faced with credit leveraged degree rise,Also is facing a credit term conversion of financial intermediary activities increase,In order to make the domestic shadow Banks very flood,The domestic financial system the risks are also on the increase.

　　可以说，对于中国金融市场，无论是地方政府融资平台风险增加，还是影子银行盛行、商业银行不良贷款率上升及国内房地产企业境外负债增长等，都预示着国内金融市场的风险暗流汹涌。因为，对于国内监管者及金融机构来说，对当前中国金融市场风险评估往往是建立以下两个前提基础上，即住房价格只是会上涨而不会下跌、人民币仍然处于升值空间及欧美国家的量化宽松货币政策得以持续。

Can say,For China's financial markets,Whether local government financing platform risk increase,Or shadow Banks prevailing/Commercial bank bad loans rise and domestic real estate enterprise foreign liabilities growth, etc,All indicate the domestic financial market risk undercurrent surge.because,For the domestic regulators and for financial institutions,On the current China's financial market risk assessment is often set up the following two prerequisite basis,That house prices will go up is not down/The yuan is still in the appreciation of the space and the European and American countries of the quantitative easing monetary policy continues.

　　地方政府之所以敢绕道银行表外即影子银行继续大规模高成本地融资，并以城投债、信托等理财产品形式进行融资，这不仅在于这些产品有政府的隐性担保，有地方政府业绩的冲动，而且更在于借贷双方都预期住房价格上涨而推高土地价格，使得土地出让金收益的增长。还有，尽管当前银行体系对房地产业的贷款占比只有20%左右，但是国内银行体系60万亿贷款与住房按揭、住房抵押及土地抵押等相关的贷款占比在60%以上。

The local government to bypass bank off-balance sheet that shadow Banks continue to large-scale top local financing,And city for debt/Trust and financial products form of financing,This is not only the products are the government's recessive guarantee,A local government performance of the impulse,And more is borrowing both expected housing prices and push the high land prices,Make the land grant fee income growth.and,In spite of the current banking system for real estate loans accounted for more than 20% or so,But the domestic banking system 60 trillion loan and housing mortgage/Housing mortgage and land mortgage and other related loans accounted for more than 60% than in.

　　我们可以看到，中国房地产市场发展繁荣了十多年。这十年来，不仅中国新房的建造占全世界总建造住房一半以上；而且中国住房市场的价格也快速飙升，尤其是中国一些一线城市房价上涨达10倍以上。因此，中国房地产市场早就形成了一个巨大泡沫（无论房价收入比、租金房价比及居民住房贷款债务承受度等指标来计算都是如此）。尽管当前中国这个巨大房地产泡沫只有少数地方在破灭（如温州、鄂尔多斯(600295,股吧)、海南等），国内房地产泡沫破灭也仅是在小范围内发生，但是近十年来的中国房地产市场的价格从来就没有出现过一次周期性调整。可以说，只要房价不下跌，当前国内金融体系的风险（无论是正规金融还是非正规金融）就不会轻易显示出来，监管部门就可用历史及当前数据来表明国内金融体系的风险在可控的范围内。但是，如果国内房价下跌，国内金融市场潜在风险都会暴露出来。

We can see,China's real estate market development and prosperity for more than ten years.The ten years,Not only the construction of China's new accounting for of the world total building housing more than half;And China's housing market price also fast to soar,Especially some Chinese a line city house price rising up to ten times more.so,China's real estate market would have formed a huge bubble(No matter the housing price to income ratio/The rent house price ratio and residential mortgage debt, such as tolerance index to calculate are so).Although China's current the great real estate bubble burst in only a few places(Such as wenzhou/ordos(600295,guba)/Hainan, etc),The domestic real estate bubble is only happened in small range,But in recent ten years the price of China's real estate market has never been a cyclical adjustment.Can say,As long as prices fall,The current domestic financial system risk(Whether formal financial or informal finance)I will never show,Regulators can be used historical and current data to show that the risk of domestic financial system in the controllable range.but,If domestic falling house prices,The domestic financial market potential risk will be exposed.

　　还有，人民币的升值不会逆转吗？这当然要看中国实体经济的发展，也得看欧美国家量化宽松的货币政策在什么时候结束。如果欧美量化宽松的货币政策结束，整个国际市场汇率价格就会出现较大的调整，人民币升值也可能在这种调整过程中出现逆转。一旦人民币贬值，不仅可能导致企业外债的融资成本突然上升、房地产泡沫破灭、大量的外资流出、国内资产价格全面下行等一系列的连锁反应，中国金融危机也就会随着这种反应而爆发。

and,The yuan appreciation will not reverse?This of course depends on the development of China's real economy,Also depends on the European and American countries quantitative easing monetary policy when end.If Europe and the quantitative easing monetary policy end,The whole international market rate price can appear larger adjustment,The appreciation of the renminbi may also in this adjustment process appeared in reverse.Once the devaluation of RMB,Not only can lead to enterprise debt financing cost rise suddenly/The real estate bubble burst/A large amount of foreign capital outflow/Domestic asset prices overall down a series of chain reaction,China's financial crisis also will with the reaction and outbreak.

　　对当前金融体系所隐含的风险，我们要保持高度警惕，随时准备好应对措施。

On the current financial system hidden risks,We must keep fully alert,Ready to measures.