艾经纬

YiJingWei

　　[ 如果说“双率”市场化是天时，资产管理是逐鹿中原的霸业，监管层过去一年多的拆去篱笆的举动正将资产管理业推入战国时代 ]

[if"Double rate"Marketization is days,Asset management is the central plains of the equation,The supervisor in the past more than a year of down the fence move is the asset management push in the warring states period,

　　拆去篱笆，资产管理正在进入战国时代。

Down the fence,Asset management is in the warring states period.

　　在中国加入WTO逾10年之后，中国经济正在艰难转型。与此同时，经济市场化也正迈向金融市场化，这个大背景主要表现为，对外汇率市场化，对内利率市场化。

In China's accession to the WTO after more than ten years,China's economy is difficult transition.meanwhile,Economic marketization is towards financial market,The background of main show is,The foreign exchange market,Domestic interest rate marketization.

　　如果说“双率”市场化是天时，资产管理是逐鹿中原的霸业，那么，监管层过去一年多的拆去篱笆的举动正将资产管理业推入战国时代。

if"Double rate"Marketization is days,Asset management is the central plains of the equation,so,The supervisor in the past more than a year of down the fence move is the asset management push in the warring states period.

　　

资管市场大格局 Endowment tube market big pattern

　　20多年前，中国人的财富概念仅仅局限在货币，尚无资产管理的概念。直到1990年沪市开门，1998年房改启动，中国人的财富视野才得以拓展，资产管理也由此蓬勃。

Twenty years ago,In the wealth of the Chinese people concept is only limited in currency,There is no asset management concept.Until 1990 Shanghai to open the door,1998 start room,In the wealth of the Chinese people field of vision to develop,Asset management and so vigorous.

　　那么，经过20多年的启蒙与发展，中国资产管理大市场是怎样的格局呢？

so,After twenty years of enlightenment and development,China asset management big market is what kind of pattern?

　　银行存款与银行理财——存款也是种资产配置，虽然潜意识中为很多人所忽略，但中国居民的大部分财富恰恰“定格”在存款上。截至2012年11月末，中国居民个人存款为39.9万亿元。而据中国社科院金融研究所统计，2012年银行理财产品募资规模不少于20万亿元。

Bank deposit and bank financing - deposit is also kind of asset allocation,Although the subconscious in for a lot of people ignored,But most of the Chinese resident wealth"stopped"On the savings on.By the end of 2012 and the end of the month,Chinese citizens deposit for 39.9 trillion yuan.And according to Chinese academy of financial research institute statistics,In 2012, bank financing products need to recapitalise scale of not less than 20 trillion yuan.

　　证券市场——这是除了商业银行存款之外，中国居民参与最多的市场，目前沪深两市投资者开户数已达2.11亿户，截至1月17日，两市流通市值为18.17万亿元。

Securities market - this is in addition to the commercial bank deposit outside,Chinese residents participate in most of the market,At present, Shanghai or shenzhen, two city investors accounts has reached 211 million households,By January 17,,Two city circulation market value for 18.17 trillion yuan.

　　债券市场——这是机构主导的市场，截至1月17日，债券市场总值26.29万亿元。近年来，虽然管理层大力推动债券市场，但个人投资者并不感冒，配置应该有限。

The bond market - this is the leading market mechanism,By January 17,,The bond market value 26.29 trillion yuan.In recent years,Although the management to promote the bond market,But individual investors don't catch a cold,Configuration should be limited.

　　商品期货市场——这个市场可以是天堂，也可以是地狱，参与的投资者远少于证券市场。截至2012年7月，期货客户保证金存量1800亿元。

Commodity futures market, the market can be heaven,Also can be hell,Investors in the securities market is far less than.By July 2012,Futures customer margin stock 180 billion yuan.

　　房地产市场——当房屋的资产属性占据主导地位之时，房地产市场也就成为一个资产市场了，但其规模只能粗略估算。业内比较认同的方法是按人口和平均居住面积计算。

The real estate market - when housing assets attribute of dominant,The real estate market will become an asset market,But its size can only a rough estimate.The comparative identification method is according to the population and the average living area computation.

　　截至2011年，城市地产市值：（1）住宅：人均居住面积约30平方米，人口6.5亿人，每平方米均价约4000元。基于此，住宅市值约78万亿元；（2）商业地产：城市中住宅：商业约为1：4，即约为19.5万亿；所以，城市地产市值合计约97.5万亿元。若按同类方法计算农村地产市值，则约为26万亿元，全国地产市值合计123.5万亿元。而根据美联储的估算，全美国住宅房地产的总值在2012年三季度为17.2万亿美元。

By the end of 2011,City real estate market value:(1)residential:The per capita living area of about 30 square meters,A population of 650 million people,Average about 4000 yuan per square meter.Based on this,Housing market value of about 78 trillion yuan;(2)Commercial real estate:City residential:Business is about 1:4,That is about 19.5 trillion;so,City real estate market value total about 97.5 trillion yuan.If the same method to calculate according to the rural real estate market value,It is about 26 trillion yuan,The national real estate market value amount to 123.5 trillion yuan.According to the federal reserve estimation,Across the United States house of real estate in the third quarter GDP in 2012 for $17.2 trillion.

　　还可以粗略估算居民在房地产市场中的投入，截至2012年上半年，全国个人房地产贷款余额为7.49万亿，若按贷款占房款二分之一算，则全国居民投入约15万亿。

Also can give you a rough estimate of the people in the real estate market investment,By the first half of 2012,The individual real estate loan balance for 7.49 trillion,If the house is half by loans accounted for,The country residents spent about 15 trillion.

　　在上述主要金融市场之外，还有保险市场、PE、外汇等市场。从各大类金融市场的市值分布上，大体可以看出中国居民的投资与资产配置偏好。

In the above major financial markets,And insurance market/PE/Exchange markets such as.From all kinds of financial market value distribution,Can be seen in Chinese residents' investment and asset allocation preference.

　　

拆去藩篱，开始混战 Remove barriers,Began to melee

　　时变，势变。

time-varying,Potential change.

　　证券市场从零到如今总市值20多万亿元，信托行业近两年的异军突起，说明资产管理行业正在发生剧烈的变化。

Securities market from zero to the total market value and now more than one trillion yuan,The rise of the trust industry nearly two years,Asset management industry that is happening to change drastically.

　　2012年6月，证监会主席郭树清发表题为《我们需要一个强大的财富管理行业》的讲话，指出了发展财富管理对经济转型具有的重要意义，在整个泛资产管理行业引起了强烈反响。

In June 2012,Securities regulatory commission chairman GuoShuQing published titled[We need a powerful wealth management industry]speech,Points out that the development of the transformation of the economic wealth management has important significance,In the whole universal asset management industry caused a strong reaction.

　　而在此前后，监管层给资产管理行业拆去了一系列的准入壁垒。

And after before,The supervisor to asset management industry down to a series of access barriers.

　　2012年9月，期货资管业务正式开闸，可以投资于期货、期权及其他金融衍生品，还包括股票、债券、证券投资基金、集合资产管理计划、央行票据、短期融资券、资产支持证券等。

In September 2012,Futures endowment pipe business formal breaking,Can invest in futures/Options and other financial derivatives,Include stock/bonds/Securities investment funds/Aggregate asset management plan/Central bank bills/Short-term financing bonds/Asset-backed securities, etc.

　　2012年9月和10月，证监会发布一系列规定，向基金管理公司全面开放资产管理业务，投资于金融市场之外的非标准化股权、债权、其他财产权利和中国证券会认可的其他资产。

2012 September and October,Securities regulatory commission issued a series of regulations,A fund management company to the complete opening of the asset management business,Investment in the financial markets are not standardized of equity/Creditor's rights/Other property rights and the China securities will accept other assets.

　　2012年10月，保监会发布一系列规定，放松管制，拓宽保险资金境内外投资范围。

In October 2012,The China insurance regulatory commission issued a series of regulations,deregulation,Broaden the scope of insurance capital investment at home and abroad.

　　2012年10月，证监会发布一系列规定，主基调同样也是“放松管制，放宽限制”。

In October 2012,Securities regulatory commission issued a series of regulations,Advocate fundamental key is also"deregulation,liberalization".

　　……

...

　　混战之中，黑马辈出。近两年，信托业可谓一匹黑马，截至2012年三季度，信托资产规模再创历史新高，达到6.32万亿元，相比2011年末的4.81万亿元，实现31.39%的增长。至此，取代保险业而成为我国第二大金融部门已经没有悬念。

scuffle,Dark horse coming forth in large Numbers.Nearly two years,Trust business is a dark horse,By the end of 2012 in the third quarter,The trust assets scale hit a record high,Up to 6.32 trillion yuan,At the end of 2011 compared to 4.81 trillion yuan,Achieve 31.39% growth.So far,Replace the insurance industry to become the country's second largest financial departments have no suspense.

　　而期货行业资产管理正从零开始，也许我们会见证一匹新的黑马。

And the futures industry assets management is starting from scratch,Maybe we will witness a horse new dark horse.

　　拆去藩篱之后，中国资产管理行业进入一个全面混战的时代。而监管层的金融软环境建设，将为中国金融市场的发展奠定基础，而资管市场的大格局也将会得到改写。

Remove after the barriers,China asset management industry into a comprehensive melee era.And the supervisor's financial soft environment construction,For the development of China's financial market lay the foundation,And the great pattern of information tube market also will be rewritten.

　

　创新与风险 Innovation and risk

　　资产管理混战全面开始，郭树清一直强调金融创新、金融服务于经济转型，但现实情况没那么乐观。相反，通道业务成为主流，混业经营趋势正在倒逼分业监管，风险也正在滋生。

Asset management melee overall beginning,GuoShuQing have focused on financial innovation/Financial services in the economic transformation,But the reality is not so optimistic.instead,Channel business become mainstream,Mixed operation trend is DaoBi supervised respectively,Risk is also breeding.

　　拆掉篱笆，鼓励创新，自然是好，只是当前各类金融机构有发展资产管理业务的冲动，但无论是银信合作，还是银证合作、银基合作，各类金融机构都在争抢通道业务。而一个好的托辞是先分掉蛋糕再创新也不迟。

Tear down the fence,Encourage innovation,Nature is good,But the current development of all kinds of financial institutions have the impulse of the asset management business,But whether such cooperation,Or silver-colored card to cooperation/Silver base cooperation,All kinds of financial institutions are in business for channel.And a good alibi is first points out the cake and innovation is not late.

　　各类金融机构涌入资产管理业务，混业经营势头迅猛，但现行监管依旧是分业，一方面产生监管套利，另一方面正在倒逼分业监管。

All kinds of financial institutions into the asset management business,Mixed operation very fast,But the current supervision is still separated,On the one hand have regulatory arbitrage,On the other hand is DaoBi supervised respectively.

　　2012年下半年以来，不时传出理财产品兑现危机。而在当前占主导的资产管理业务中，在“资金池—资产池”的运作模式下，风险正从银行表内向表外溢出。去年10月，中国银行(601988,股吧)董事长肖钢在《中国日报》发表英文署名文章， 对“资金池”理财产品提出措辞极为严厉的批评，引发业界哗然。虽说肖钢所称的“庞氏骗局”有待商榷，但风险正在积聚，也是不争的事实。

Since the latter half of 2012,From time to time out cash crisis financial products.And in the current dominant asset management business,in"The pool - asset pool"Operation mode,Risk is from the bank within the table table spillover.Last October,,The bank of China(601988,guba)The chairman of the board XiaoGang in[China Daily]This article published English signature, to"pool"Financial products put forward the phrase is very severe criticism,Trigger event industry.Although XiaoGang ""Ponzi scheme"I'd like to discuss,But the risk is accumulation,Is also true.

　　此外，说的是金融为实体服务，现实却是短期理财火爆。延伸看去，温州金融改革雷声大、雨点小，民间借贷依旧需要进一步规范，深圳前海金融改革试点重在货币交易，目标直指财富管理中心，在支持实体经济方面也鲜有布局。

In addition,Said is financial services for the entity,The reality is short-term financial boom.Extensions look,Wenzhou financial reform thunder/air,Folk lending is still need further standardize,Shenzhen sea before financial reform pilot focuses on currency trading,Targeted wealth management center,In support of the real economy also few layout.

　　资管混战，究竟鹿死谁手，金融如何更好地服务于经济转型，我们拭目以待。

Endowment tube melee,Actually who will gain supremacy.,Financial how to better serve the economic transformation,We see.