投资中国证券市场正当时！A股市场在经历了五年的熊市后，大量投资者亏损的局面仿佛已经尘埃落定。而面对新的政治经济周期，种种利好因素预示了2013年的股市将与“牛”重逢。

Investment in China's securities market just in time!A-share market after five years of bear market,A large number of investors loss situation as if has the dust settles.And in the face of the new political and economic cycle,A variety of bullish factor indicates the 2013 stock market will be"cattle"reunion.

　　自2007年以来，A股熊市已超过五年，下跌时间之长，下跌幅度之大，投资者亏损面之广前所未有，但是经过长期调整后，A股内在已经具备投资价值。2013年中国将进入新的政治经济周期，新的改革方向已经明确，新型城镇化更是经济持续健康发展的强力发动机，经济会在未来五年有质量的增长。2013年正好处于经济温和复苏期和企业补库存期，8%的GDP预期增长和3.3%左右的CPI，有利于证券市场上涨。

Since 2007,A shares A bear market has more than five years,Down the long time,The big declines,Investors KuiSunMian wide unprecedented,But after a long after the adjustment,A share inner has investment value.In 2013, China will enter a new political and economic cycle,The new reform direction has been clear,Urbanization is a new economic sustainable and healthy development of powerful engine,Economy will have in the future five years quality growth.2013 just in economic moderate FuSuQi and enterprise complement inventory period,8% of the GDP expected growth and 3.3% of CPI,The securities market to rise.

　　首先，由于A股估值低，跌无可跌，从历史角度看已具备投资价值。A股经过5年的弱市下跌，目前按照中报剔除负值整体法计算的市盈率仅有11.9倍，而2012年预测市盈率仅有10.3倍，相比较历史低点1664点的12.38倍，2319点的15.03倍，下跌无空间。

First of all,Because A low share valuations,Fall beyond fall,From the perspective of history has investment value.A shares after 5 years of weak market fell,At present according to the center daily news to eliminate negative integral method for calculation of p/e ratio of only 11.9 times,And forecast 2012 p/e ratio only 10.3 times,Compared to historic lows 1664 point 12.38 times,2319 point 15.03 times,Down without space.

　　其次，2012年中央经济工作会议报告将经济体制改革的顶层设计和总体规划放在最重要位置，经济发展强调“持续健康”，以提高经济增长质量和效益为中心，GDP增速必然会合理增长。另外，

secondly,In 2012, the central economic work conference report will be the top of the reform of economic system design and the overall planning on the important position,Economic development emphasizes"sustainable",In order to improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth as the center,GDP growth will reasonable growth.In addition,

　　“积极稳妥推进城镇化，着力提高城镇化质量”作为单独一条提出，将对财政支出、投资产生实质性影响，相关板块的盈利增长可对冲经济下滑，使经济出现阶段性企稳，并健康复苏，只要市场对此预期逐步达成一致，A股持续多年下行的状况可能终结，并迎来牛市起始阶段。

"Actively yet prudently proceed with urbanization,Strive to improve the quality of urbanization"As a separate put forward,Will be spending/Investment produce substantial influence,Related sectors of earnings growth can hedge economic downturn,Keep the economy appear periodic stabilises,And health recovery,As long as the market is expected to gradually reached an agreement,A shares last for years down condition may end,In a bull market and initial stage.

　　2013年以积极的财政政策作为支持，未来中西部地区、三四线城市的建设，特别是对超过一万个镇的新型城镇化的建设，固定资产投资将为建材、农业、有色、水利、电力等行业的盈利奠定基础，对相关企业是直接利好。据2012年中央经济工作会议报告精神推测，财政支出的总量还将增加，拉动的投资和带来的消费，对经济有很大的提振作用。

2013 with positive fiscal policy as a support,The future in the Midwest/Three or four line construction of city,Especially for more than ten thousand new town construction of urbanization,Fixed asset investment will be building materials/agricultural/non-ferrous/Water conservancy/Electric power industries lay the foundation of the profit,The relevant enterprise is directly bullish.According to the 2012 central economic work conference report that spirit,The amount of financial expenditure will also increase,Pull the investment and bring consumption,The economy a lot of lift up with.

　　“十二五”期间城镇化相关投资将超过40万亿，但不是以2008年4万亿时期的粗放式投资为主，而是依据党的十八大强调的要推动经济持续健康发展，要求的是尊重经济规律、有质量、有效益、可持续的速度，在不断转变经济发展方式、不断优化经济结构中实现增长。要牢牢把握扩大内需这一战略基点，培育一批拉动力强的消费增长点，增强消费对经济增长的基础作用，发挥好投资对经济增长的关键作用；要增加并引导好民间投资，同时在打基础、利长远、惠民生、又不会造成重复建设的基础设施领域加大公共投资力度。另外，收入分配制度改革将使国内人均收入翻番，消费在拉动经济增长中的占比将增大，未来几年消费能成为替代投资的经济发展引擎。

"1025"During the urbanization related investment will be more than 40 trillion,But not in 2008 period of extensive investment primarily,But according to the party's eighteen great emphasis to promote economic sustainable development,Demand is respect for economic law/quality/A benefit/Sustainable speed,In the constant transformation of the mode of economic development/Constantly optimize the economic structure to realize growth.To firmly grasp the strategic basis points to expand domestic demand,Cultivate a group of strong pulling power consumption growth,Enhance consumption to economic growth of the basic role,Play a good investment to economic growth is the key role;To increase and guide good private investment,At the same time in the ground/The long-term/Born we/And won't cause repetitive construction infrastructure field increase public investment.In addition,Reform of the income distribution system will make domestic per capita income doubled,Consumption in promoting the economic growth of the than will be increased,In the coming years consumption can be alternative investment economic development engine.

　　再次，除了估值低和经济健康发展这两个因素外，A股将从2013年步入牛市的原因还来自股市供需转好：

again,In addition to the low valuations and economic health development of these two factors outside,A shares will be from 2013 into the cause of the bull market is from the stock market supply and demand turned for the better:

　　▲券商制度创新推进增量资金入市。

Box-and-one brokers system innovation propulsion incremental funds to enter the market.

　　已公布和未来预期的制度将有助于增量资金入市。《证券结算保证金管理办法》发布，沪、深市场将遵循统一的结算保证金管理规则，接下来还将发布放开券商经纪业务的多项政策；证监会正式发布实施《证券公司代销金融产品管理规定》和《关于修改<关于证券公司证券自营业务投资范围及有关事项的规定>的决定》；

Published and future expected system will help incremental funds to enter the market.[Measures for the administration of securities settlement margin]release,Shanghai/Deep market will follow uniform settlement margin management rules,The next will be published also let go of securities brokerage business of a number of policy;Securities regulatory commission issued a formal implementation[Securities companies sell financial products management regulations]and[To modify<About securities company self-managed securities business investment scope and the provisions of the relevant matters>decision];

　　另外，股息红利税差别化征收政策出台、RQFII(人民币合格境外机构投资者)额度增加2000亿元、中国银行(601988,股吧)台北分行获授权担任台湾人民币业务清算行，预期未来台资RQFII又有增量资金助力，QFII额度有望进一步增加，这些措施都不仅有助于增加资金供给量，也有助于改善A股投资者结构。

In addition,Dividend red profits differentiation collection policies/RQFII(The qualified foreign institutional investors)Line an increase of 200 billion yuan/The bank of China(601988,guba)Taipei branch authorized as the RMB business in Taiwan clearing bank,Taiwan RQFII expected future and incremental capital power,QFII line is expected to increase,These measures are not only helps to increase the money supply,Also helps to improve the a-share investors structure.

　　▲新股发行数量并不会如市场估计巨量放出。

Box-and-one issuance quantity will not such as market estimates jillion release.

　　虽然现在有800余只股票在证监会排队等候上市，但投资者对未来新股发行扩容不必太担忧。未来企业发现满足IPO的条件变得越来越严格，加上违反财务审核制度、保荐制度的处罚力度加大，随着时间推移，很多在排队的企业或者将来想要挤进这个队列的企业将面临市场的考验，经不起市场考验的企业将自然退出，而优秀企业的上市将给市场带来活力和良好的财富效应 。

While there are now more than 800 stock in the securities listed on the queue,But investors for future issuance flash don't too worry.The future enterprise found that satisfy the condition of IPO is becoming more and more strict,Add in violation of financial audit system/Sponsor system increase punishment,With the passage of time,A lot of standing in line in the future of the enterprise or to squeeze into the queue enterprise will face the test of the market,Can't afford to test the market the enterprise will be natural exit,And outstanding enterprise of the listed will give market bring vigor and good wealth effect .

　　▲退市制度进一步完善，将凸显资源优化配置功能。

Box-and-one delisted system to further improve,Will highlight resources optimization allocation function.

　　劣质上市公司长期以来僵而不死，使资源优化配置功能难以充分体现。现在通过制度如：上海证券交易所正式发布

Inferior the listed company has long stiff and not die,Make resource allocation optimization function is difficult to fully embody.Now through system such as:Shanghai stock exchange issued a formal

　　《风险警示板股票交易暂行办法》、《退市整理期业务实施细则》、《退市公司股份转让系统暂行办法》和《退市公司重新上市实施办法》四项退市配套业务规则，同时，深圳证券交易所也已正式发布实施《深圳证券交易所退市公司重新上市实施办法》和《深圳证券交易所退市整理期业务特别规定》两项退市制度相关规则，这些制度、规则的出台，可以使市场正本清源，驱逐劣质上市公司，让优质公司在市场上获得更多的资源和发展。此外，一月份上海证券交易所“风险警示板”的交易已经实施，在投资者适当性管理方面的加强，对保护投资者起了很大的作用。

[Risk warning plate stock trading interim measures]/[Delisted consolidation period detailed rules for the implementation of the business]/[Delisted company share transfer system interim measures]and[Delisted company to the measures for the implementation of the listed]Four delisted supporting business rules,At the same time,Shenzhen stock exchange has also issued a formal implementation[Shenzhen stock exchange delisted company to the measures for the implementation of the listed]and[Shenzhen stock exchange delisted finishing stage business special provisions]Two delisted system related rules,The system/Rules appearing,Can make market radically reform,Out inferior listed companies,Let the quality in the market the company get more resources and development.In addition,The Shanghai stock exchange in January"Risk warning plate"Trading has been carried out,As investors appropriateness management strengthening,To protect investors play a major role.

　　最后，货币投放绝对值很大，且股市配置占比将可能增加。

finally,Money issued a absolute value,And the stock market for configuration than may increase.

　　M2的增速，理论上应该等于GDP加上CPI的增速，这样货币供给量和经济增长相适应。但事实上，中国的M2增长速度一直大于GDP+CPI的增长幅度，也就是说处于通胀状态中，这也是资产价格节节攀升的原因。M2增速，2012年初12%远大于GDP的增速，而最近两月M2增速更反弹至14%以上，未来通胀压力犹存。而在通胀且宏观调控不放松背景下，社会理财产品可选范围小，股市在民众资产配置中的占比将提高，只要增量货币入市比例比过去增加，足够支撑一波大牛市。

M2 growth,Theory should be equal to the rate of growth of GDP and CPI,This money supply and adapt to economic growth.But in fact,China's M2 growth rate has been greater than GDP + CPI increase,That is in a state of inflation,This is the cause of the uptick in asset prices.M2 growth,At the beginning of 2012 than 12% of GDP,And in recent two months M2 growth more rebound to more than 14%,On future inflationary pressures.And in inflation and macroeconomic regulation and control don't relax background,Social financial product optional small range,The stock market in the allocation of public assets of more than will improve,As long as the incremental monetary market proportion increase than in the past,Enough to support a wave of big bull market.

　　A股目前的市值是23.1万亿(2013.1.9收盘价计算)，和50万亿元的GDP相比，证券化率不高。在M2总量突破100亿以后，全年仍以数万亿的速度在快速增长，如果股市上涨体现赚钱效应后，就算每年只有3万亿元新增资金入市，也将对股市产生不可估量的推动，从而走出一波大行情。

A shares the market value is 23.1 trillion(2013.1.9 closing price calculation),And 50 trillion yuan GDP compared,Securitization rate is not high.The total amount in M2 breakthrough after 10 billion,The trillions of still growing at a rapid pace,If the stock market rise reflects money after effect,Even if only 3 trillion yuan a year new capital city,Will the market produce immeasurable promote,And out of a wave of big market.

　　综上所述，由于A股估值处于低位，在经历了2000点以下的“黄金坑”考验后，已经跌无可跌，从历史角度看已具投资价值；且在“城镇化建设”新政推出后，经济还将维持稳定增长，从而给上市公司带来盈利保证，股市牛市基本面确定。另外，股市供需转好，也将在资金供给等方面对股市提振产生积极影响。预期在2013年初在2300点附近充分震荡整理和换手后，年内上证指数能上涨到2700点，2014年更会冲击3000点，正是吹响投资的号角的时候。所以，投资A股正当其时。

To sum up,Because A low share valuations,After 2000 points below"Gold pit"After test,There has fallen down,From the perspective of history already has investment value;And in"Urbanization construction"New Deal after launch,The economy will maintain stable growth,Bring to the listed company profit guarantee,The stock market bull market fundamentals to determine.In addition,The stock market supply and demand turned for the better,Will be in the money supply so as to boost the stock market have a positive impact.In early 2013 in expected near 2300 fully shock finishing and change after the hand,Years the Shanghai index can be up to 2700 points,2014 will impact 3000 points,It is the horn sound investment.so,Invest A proper time.

　　赵晓历 财经评论员，资深证券人士、曾任多家券商营业部总经理、现任上海证券商城路营业部总经理

ZhaoXiaoLi financial commentator,Senior securities people/Once was appointed general manager of sales department several brokers/The Shanghai securities mall road sales department general manager