王闻 Wang Wen

　　根据最新公布的2012年货币金融数据，中国的M2/GDP比率接近190%，不仅远高于美国，而且也比日本、欧元区以及其他金砖国家来得高。据此一些人发表评论认为中国货币超发，会带来严重的通胀。

In 2012, according to the latest monetary and financial data,China's M2 / GDP ratio closer to 190%,Not only is far higher than the United States,And than in Japan/The euro zone and other bric countries.According to this comment, some people think that China's currency is super,Will lead to serious inflation.

　　自从上世纪70年代末期中国改革开放以后，M2/GDP这个比率基本上就处在增长的过程中（虽然中间有些年份有小幅度下降），而且自从进入到新世纪以后，我们的M2/GDP比率比世界上很多国家都高。但是用这个比率来说货币超发和通货膨胀的事情，这个逻辑链条就有些不靠谱了。如果用这个观点向普通百姓做宣传，更有误导公众的嫌疑了。

Since the late 1970 s, China's reform and opening up,M2 / GDP, the ratio is basically is in the process of growth(Although some years have fallen slightly in the middle),And since entered the new century,Our M2 / GDP ratio is higher than many countries in the world.But the use of this ratio for more hair and inflation,This logic chain is somewhat unreliable.If use this view to do propaganda to the general public,More suspected of misleading the public.

　　要理解这个指标的含义，我们需要从其基本含义出发。GDP是衡量一国经济活动总量的指标，而M2简单地说就是库存现金和手持现金（M0）加上活期存款（M1）再加上定期存款等准货币。因此从直观上看，这个指标衡量的是一个国家全部经济交易活动中以货币为媒介进行交易的比重。

To understand the meaning of this indicator,We need to start from the basic meaning.Indicators of the total GDP is a measure of a country's economic activities,And M2 in simple terms is cash on hand and cash in cash(M0)Plus demand deposits(M1)Plus the deposit such as quasi currency.So from the intuitive point of view,This measure is a country of all economic activity in the currency as a medium for the proportion of transactions.

　　美国学者麦金农最早在70年代提出这个指标，并且用它作为一个国家金融深化的程度。但是经过30多年的研究，用这个指标来衡量各国金融深化的程度并没有得到普遍接受。诺奖得主弗里德曼针对美国从1867-1975年的数据表明，M2/GDP都呈现了“先上升后下降”的趋势，这个指标在1947年达到了0.8097的峰值，后来缓慢下降，长期稳定在0.6-0.7的水平上。而90年代以后跨国数据表明，中国和日本、马来西亚、韩国、泰国等国家的这个比例比较高，而美国、欧盟区、印度和印尼的比值比较低。另一方面，各国自从90年代以来M2/GDP比率都出现逐步提高的趋势，特别是在金融危机后，这个比率会显著提高，1997-1998年的亚洲金融危机以及2008-2009年国际金融危机的经历都说明了这一点。这一点也反映了金融危机后各国纷纷采取扩张性货币政策这个事实。

American scholar McKinnon first puts forward the indicators in the 70 s,And use it as a country the degree of financial deepening.But after 30 years of research,Use this metric to measure the degree of financial deepening has not been generally accepted.Nobel laureate friedman against the United States from 1867 to 1975, the data indicate,M2 / GDP are presented"First rise after falling"The trend of,The index has reached the peak of 0.8097 in 1947,Then a slight decline in,Long-term stability at the levels of 0.6 to 0.7.And after international data show that in the 90 s,China and Japan/Malaysia/In South Korea/Thailand and other countries the ratio is higher,While the United States/The European Union area/The ratio of India and Indonesia is lower.On the other hand,Countries since the 90 s the M2 / GDP ratio has appeared the trend of gradually increase,Especially after the financial crisis,This ratio will increase significantly,1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and the experience of the international financial crisis in 2008-2009 are illustrates this point.This also reflects the financial crisis after the fact that countries are taking expansionary monetary policy.

　　M2/GDP比率难以说明一国金融深化程度，同样它也很难和通货膨胀挂钩。从基本原理上看，影响通货膨胀的是M2的增长率，而不是M2的存量。本来各国之间在M2上的统计口径上存在差异，同时各国的金融体系和消费习惯也有很大不同，用跨国比较M2/GDP比率来说通货膨胀是完全没有道理的。就是以中国自己的改革开放进程经验来看，我们在1987-1988年和1992-1993年都经历了高速通货膨胀期，但是显然这些时候的M2/GDP比率明显地要比现在低。

M2 / GDP ratio to show a country's degree of financial deepening,Also it is difficult to and inflation.Viewed from the basic principle,Impact of inflation is the growth rate of M2,Instead of M2 in stock.Originally between countries on M2 statistical differences,At the same time, national financial system and consumption habits are quite different, too,With global comparison of M2 / GDP ratio, inflation is unjustifiable.As China's own experience of reform and opening up process,We in 1987-1988 and 1992-1993 have undergone a rapid period of inflation,But obviously when the M2 / GDP ratio significantly lower than now.

　　M2/GDP比率既不能说明金融深化程度（其本来所希望表征的），也不能说明通货膨胀（现在被一些人拿来表征的），但是我们也的确需要了解中国这个比率比较高的背后成因。在一些可能的解释中，笔者认为比较靠谱的有两个。第一个是“间接融资”论，也就是说虽然中国资本市场过去20多年有了高速发展，但是中国金融体系本质上还是以银行间接融资为主的国家。银行会派生存款，因此货币总量就比较多。而以直接融资为主的国家，比如美国，货币只是在不同经济主体之间进行转化，货币总量就比较有限。第二是“储蓄”论，这种理论认为虽然中国的M2很高，但是其中的单位和个人存款占了很大比重，真正在流通中的现金很少，这样为了满足经济活动的基本需要，以M2定义的货币总量就会偏高了。

M2 / GDP ratio can neither explain degree of financial deepening(It was hoped characterization),Also don't tell the inflation(Is characterized by some people),But we also need to know about China indeed causes behind this ratio is relatively high.In some possible explanations,The author thinks that the spectrum of the two.The first is the"Indirect financing"Theory of,That is to say, although China's capital market over the past 20 years with the high speed development,But the Chinese financial system essentially is mostly about bank indirect financing.Bank deposit will be derived,So more monetary aggregates.Give priority to in order to direct financing and country,Such as the United States,Money just to convert between different economic subject,Monetary aggregates are limited.The second is"savings"Theory of,This theory is that although China's M2 is very high,But the unit and individual savings accounts for a large proportion,Really cash in circulation is rarely,So in order to meet the basic needs of economic activity,The M2 definition of monetary aggregates will be on the high side.

　　最近有关M2/GDP和货币超发以及通货膨胀之间的争论，再次说明了很多经济观点需要仔细推敲，特别是需要数据和资料的分析，不能妄下定论，否则混淆视听事小，而影响到制定合理的经济政策就事大了。

Recently on the M2 / GDP and currency dispute between super hair and inflation,Again a lot of economic view needs close scrutiny,Particularly need the data and data analysis,Don't jump to conclusions,Otherwise confusing things is small,And affect the reasonable economic policy will great.

　　作者系金融学博士、上海金融与法律研究院研究员

The author is a finance, Dr/Shanghai institute of financial and legal researcher