顾蓓蓓

Gu Beibei

　　和讯网消息 3月12日，1-2 月份工业生产同比增速继续下滑，巴克莱亚洲首席经济学家黄益平表示，由于工业生产数据增长令人失望，对中国经济周期性复苏持谨慎态度。

HeXunWang news on March 12,January and February year-on-year growth in industrial production continued to slide,Barclays said huang yiping, chief Asia economist at,Due to the growth of industrial production data was disappointing,Cautious about China's economic cyclical recovery.

　　他表示，2012年下半年以来，巴克莱对于中国经济增长的预期一直是企稳而非加速增长。其理由是，国内工业产能过剩，而外部需求疲软；以及谨慎或中性的货币政策和温和扩张的财政政策，同时没有大的刺激政策。

He said,Since the second half of 2012,Barclays has been stabilizing growth forecasts for China rather than accelerating growth.The reason is,Domestic industrial overcapacity,And weak external demand;As well as cautious or neutral fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy expansion,At the same time, no big stimulus.

　　巴克莱预期，今年经济增长将稳定在8%左右，而非如一些机构预测的上半年经济强劲增长而下半年急剧下滑的起伏情况。在短期内，鉴于工业产值占国内生产总值的40%以及消费和投资的平衡趋势，维持第一季度GDP增长为7.9%，低于普遍预期的预测。

Barclays expects,Economic growth will stabilize at 8% this year,Rather than as some of the predictions of a sharp fall in the number of strong growth during the first half and second half of the ups and downs.In the short term,In view of the industrial output value accounted for 40% of gross domestic product (GDP) and the balance of consumption and investment trends,Keep in the first quarter GDP growth of 7.9%,Below consensus forecasts.

　　数据显示，1-2月产出和零售销售意外下行，而投资和通胀则上行。2013年初，基础设施和房地产投资增长重新加速，均为23%；工业生产增长疲软，从去年12月的10.3%降至9.9%；零售销售增长放缓，从去年12月的15.2%降至12.3%。

According to data,1 to 2 months of output and retail sales unexpectedly downward,While investment and inflation upward.At the beginning of 2013,To accelerate the infrastructure and real estate investment growth,All are 23%;Industrial production growth is weak,Fell to 9.9% from 10.3% in December last year;Retail sales growth slowed,Fell to 12.3% from 15.2% in December last year.

　　黄益平指出，零售销售可能受到了未来国家主席习近平的反浪费和反腐败运动的负面影响，这可能会抑制第一季度GDP增长。然而，黄益平表示仍对长期消费趋势保持乐观。

Mr. Huang said,Retail sales may be the future President xi jinping and the negative impact of anti-corruption campaign against waste,This will hurt first quarter GDP growth.however,Mr. Huang said still remain optimistic about their long-term trends.

　　展望未来，黄益平预期，首先，政策将仍是国内最大的风险。特别是，监管机构将如何平衡经济的融资需求和影子银行活动及地方政府债务增加，所带来的不断上升的金融和财政风险。

Looking to the future,Mr. Huang expected,First of all,Policy will still is the biggest risk in China.Especially in the,Regulators will how to balance the financing needs of economic and shadow banking activities and local government debt increases,The rising financial and fiscal risk.

　　其次，他表示，中央政府将如何抑制地方政府强大的投资热情。数据表明，目前有2/3的地方政府将2013年经济增长目标制定为10%以上，远高于全国7.5%的目标。最后，中央政府将如何推动“城镇化进程”，这将影响今年和未来几年的投资和消费前景。

The second,He said,The central government to suppress strong enthusiasm of local government.Data show that,There are two-thirds of the provincial government will economic growth target set in 2013 to more than 10%,Well above the national target of 7.5%.The last,The central government will be how to drive"The urbanization process",This will affect the prospects for this year and future years of investment and consumption.

　　此外，黄益平认为，温和的工业生产增长也表明，1-2月出口同比增长23%很可能被夸大了。全球经济复苏的不确定性将继续构成外部风险。

In addition,Mr. Huang think,Gentle also shows that industrial production growth,1 - exports rose 23% year-on-year in February are likely to be overstated.The global economic recovery will continue to constitute the external risk of uncertainty.